Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS 45.7 billion, a decrease of 59% or ARS 65.3 billion compared to Q4 2024 [4] - The annualized return on average equity was 3.81% and the return on average assets was 1.2% [5] - Net operating income before general and administrative expenses was ARS 801 billion, down 9% or ARS 82.6 billion from Q4 2024 [5] - Provision for loan losses increased by 60% or ARS 25.3 billion compared to Q4 2024, totaling ARS 66 billion [6] - Net interest income was ARS 579.2 billion, ARS 1 billion higher than Q4 2024, and up 122% or ARS 318 billion year-on-year [6][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Interest income totaled ARS 866.7 billion, down 3% or ARS 22.6 billion from Q4 2024 [7] - Income from interest on loans increased by 9% or ARS 49.6 billion compared to the previous quarter, but decreased by 18% or ARS 132.2 billion year-on-year [7][8] - Fee income was ARS 169.8 billion, a decrease of 1% or ARS 943 million from Q4 2024, but increased by 29% year-on-year [11] - Net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value through profit or loss was ARS 66.4 billion, down 55% from Q4 2024 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans reached 9.5% as of March 2025 [16] - Total deposits increased by 5% or ARS 485.4 billion quarter-on-quarter, totaling ARS 9.6 trillion, and increased by 23% year-on-year [16] - Nonperforming loans ratio was 1.44%, with a coverage ratio of 163.34% [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The bank aims to utilize its excess capital of ARS 3.2 trillion, with a capital adequacy ratio of 34.3% and a Tier one ratio of 33.6% [18] - The focus is on organic growth, with potential for future M&A opportunities as the number of banks in Argentina may shrink [26][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects real loan growth of 60% for 2025 and deposits to grow at 45% [24] - Inflation is forecasted at around 30% for 2025, with a declining trend in domestic interest rates anticipated [35] - Operating expenses are expected to grow close to inflation, around 30% [36] Other Important Information - The effective income tax rate was 43% higher than in Q4 2024 [14] - The bank's liquidity remains strong, with a liquid assets to deposits ratio of 68% [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on guidance for loan growth, deposits, and ROE - Management maintains a 60% loan growth forecast for 2025, with deposits expected to grow at 45% and ROE revised to 8% to 10% [24][25] Question: Expectations on macroeconomic factors - GDP growth is forecasted at 5% for 2025, with inflation at 30% and a declining trend in interest rates [35] Question: Loan to deposit ratio and capital ratio - The loan to deposit ratio is expected to increase, with loans representing 48% of total assets in Q1 2025 [37] Question: Bond portfolio positioning - The bank prefers high exposure to inflation-linked securities to hedge equity, aiming to maintain a stable level of available-for-sale bonds [46][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of three key financial metrics—ROE, cash flow, and growth potential—as the foundational pillars for assessing a company's value and its ability to navigate market cycles [1][8]. ROE Analysis - The overall ROE for the A-share market decreased from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024, indicating a general decline in profitability across the market [5][7]. - The household appliance sector leads with an ROE of 8.2%, supported by a 0.75 asset turnover ratio and a 6.1% net profit margin, exemplifying a high-frequency turnover and reasonable profit model [6][7]. - The coal industry saw its ROE plummet from 12.0% to 7.3%, primarily due to a significant drop in net profit margin from 10.1% to 6.7% as resource advantages diminished [7][8]. - The real estate sector is the only one with a negative ROE of -0.4%, driven by a -3.2% net profit margin and a high leverage ratio of 3.3, indicating unsustainable high-leverage models under declining demand [7][8]. Growth Potential - The electronics industry leads in revenue growth with a 17.4% increase, driven by surging demand for AI computing power and semiconductor manufacturing [9][11]. - Nine industries, including electronics and automotive, reported net profit growth, with the electronics sector achieving a remarkable 35.8% increase in net profit [11][12]. - The computer industry has the highest R&D investment ratio at 12.9%, indicating a focus on building technological barriers for long-term value creation [12][13]. Cash Flow Insights - The coal industry has the highest operating cash flow, amounting to 2,111.3 million, with a strong profitability ratio of 1.6, indicating robust cash flow coverage [16][19]. - Only 44% of A-share companies have a healthy cash flow ratio, with 56% showing concerning profitability quality, highlighting potential funding shortages for many firms [19][20]. - The top five industries by operating cash flow (oil and petrochemicals, communication, public utilities, transportation, and automotive) demonstrate a trend of stable cash flow generation, supporting capital expenditures without excessive reliance on external financing [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the insurance industry [7] Core Insights - The insurance industry has entered a new wave of shareholding activity since 2024, marking the third wave since 2015, driven primarily by the demand for high-dividend stocks to enhance cash income [12][16] - The report categorizes shareholding activities into two types: "Concentrated Shareholding" which emphasizes dividend income, and "Long-term Equity Investment" which focuses on high ROE [12][19] Summary by Sections Shareholding Activity Overview - Since 2015, there have been three major waves of shareholding activities, with the current wave starting in 2024. The driving factors include the need for stable cash income in a declining interest rate environment [16][25] - The average dividend yield of shares involved in the current wave is approximately 5.0%, the highest in history, indicating a significant focus on dividend income [15][31] Concentrated Shareholding - "Concentrated Shareholding" refers to situations where insurance companies increase their holdings without reaching the threshold for long-term equity investment. This type has been predominant, accounting for about two-thirds of shareholding activities since 2015 [19][32] - The average dividend yield for "Concentrated Shareholding" has increased over the years, from 1.0% in 2015 to 5.0% in 2024, reflecting a growing emphasis on dividend income [15][31] Long-term Equity Investment - "Long-term Equity Investment" occurs when insurance companies hold a significant stake that allows them to exert influence over the company. Approximately one-third of shareholding activities fall into this category [19][49] - The average ROE of companies involved in "Long-term Equity Investment" is around 9.3%, which is higher than the average ROE of the entire A-share market [19][50] Historical Performance of Shareholding Stocks - Historical data shows that about 70% of stocks involved in shareholding activities experienced price increases in the year prior, but over 60% saw declines during the holding period, indicating a "see-saw" effect in performance [5][13] - Long-term, dividends are viewed as a more stable source of income for insurance companies compared to capital gains from stock price appreciation [5][13] Industry Focus - The sectors most frequently targeted for shareholding include banking, transportation, and public utilities, which are characterized by stable profitability and high dividend yields [22][43] - The report highlights a notable preference for Hong Kong stocks due to their lower valuations and higher dividend yields, making them attractive for long-term holding [31][43]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is undergoing a transformation from a "stock economy" to a "new model," with a positive profit growth expected in Q1 2025, marking the end of a four-year downward cycle [1] Group 1: Market Transition - The transition is characterized by a recovery in profit growth driven by low inventory levels across industries triggering a replenishment cycle [1] - Companies are entering this new phase with a leaner operational structure, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] - The recovery in the second-hand housing market is contributing to the restoration of the real estate chain [1] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) has significantly increased from its previous low levels, indicating improved financial health for companies in the market [1]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 投资策略专题 【行业联合推荐】重回价值投资 A 股市场定价逻辑正经历从短期估值博弈向长期价值投资的系统性切换。 伴随中长期资金占比提升与短期投机资金退潮，市场波动率显著收敛，企 业盈利质量（ROE）对股价的驱动作用持续强化。当前，资金面阶段性收 紧与公募新规的长周期考核要求，进一步抑制题材炒作惯性，引导资金流 向盈利稳定、估值合理的价值型资产。市场逐步回归基本面定价，具备可 持续竞争优势的企业将赢得长期资本青睐。 一、为什么当下重提价值投资？ A 股波动缩小、资金面缩紧、及公募新规的推出下，更多资金将为价值投 票。过往 A 股波动大，PE 变化是主导回报率的核心因素，但近年来 A 股 波动性持续缩小，市场逐渐转向 ROE 主导，价值相关的指数，在收益率表 现上明显占优。近来公募新规的推出，也倒逼资金从短期博弈重回长期价 值投资，未来更多资金将为价值投票。 二、价值投资定义-主要回报率来源于企业 ROE 和股东回报的投资策略 价值投资主要依靠企业盈利持续增长（ROE）或股东回报获取投资收益。 根据股市回报率公式，回报率来源可 ...

Summary of XCMG Construction Machinery (000425 CH) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: XCMG Construction Machinery - **Ticker**: 000425 CH - **Sector**: Machinery - **Market Cap**: CNY 106,582 million (USD 14,797 million) [12] Key Industry Insights - **Domestic Sales Recovery**: Domestic excavator sales increased by 16% year-on-year in April, driven by replacement demand, while exports rose by 19% year-on-year, contributing to an overall industry growth of 21.4% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [2][24]. - **Emerging Markets Focus**: XCMG is expected to see higher growth in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa due to increased efforts in these regions amid trade tensions, despite only 1% of last year's revenue coming from North America [2][24]. Financial Performance - **1Q25 Results**: XCMG reported a revenue growth of 11% and a net profit growth of 26% year-on-year, primarily due to strong sales in road machinery and earth-moving machinery [25]. - **Revenue Forecast Adjustments**: The revenue forecast for 2025 has been increased by 1%, while the 2026 estimate has been reduced by 1%. Net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been cut by 6.4% and 4.6%, respectively [3][25]. Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price Increase**: The target price has been raised to RMB 10.20 from RMB 8.62, reflecting a 13% upside potential based on a new price-to-book (PB) multiple of 1.7x [4][32]. - **Valuation Comparison**: XCMG trades at a PB of 1.6x for 2025 estimates, compared to local peer Sany at 2.2x, indicating a more attractive valuation for XCMG given its better return on equity (ROE) outlook [33]. Segment Performance - **Crane and Earth Moving Machinery**: Revenue forecasts for cranes have been raised by 21% for 2025-26, while earth-moving machinery forecasts have been increased by 5-8% due to industry upcycle and emerging market sales efforts [26]. - **Concrete Machinery Decline**: Revenue forecasts for concrete machinery have been cut by 12-15% due to overestimated export momentum and lower-than-expected domestic demand [26]. Risks and Challenges - **Profitability Concerns**: The construction machinery sector faces risks from raw material price hikes, which could pressure margins if costs cannot be passed on to customers [41]. - **Demand Slowdown**: Potential slowdown in machinery demand due to tighter project financing or a significant deceleration in property construction could negatively impact sales [41]. - **Working Capital Management**: Economic slowdowns or unfavorable monetary conditions could lead to higher receivables, affecting working capital management [41]. Conclusion - XCMG is positioned for growth in domestic and international markets, particularly in mining and earth-moving machinery. The company’s focus on emerging markets and adjustments in revenue forecasts reflect a positive outlook, despite potential risks from market conditions and competition. The maintained "Buy" rating and increased target price suggest confidence in the company's future performance and market share potential in the machinery sector [4][12][32].

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 annual report season for A-share listed companies reveals a decline in overall profitability, with total revenue reaching 71.92 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, and net profit down by 2.3% to 5.21 trillion yuan. The proportion of profitable companies has dropped to 75%, down from previous years [1][4]. Group 1: ROE Analysis - The overall ROE for A-shares has decreased from 5.6% in 2023 to 4.3% in 2024, indicating a general decline in profitability across the market [12]. - The household appliance sector leads with an ROE of 8.2%, supported by a 0.75 asset turnover ratio and a 6.1% net profit margin, exemplifying a high-frequency turnover and reasonable profit model [12]. - The coal industry saw its ROE halved from 12.0% to 7.3%, primarily due to a drop in net profit margin from 10.1% to 6.7% as resource dividends faded [13]. Group 2: Growth Potential - The electronics industry experienced the highest revenue growth rate at 17.4%, driven by surging demand for AI computing power and semiconductor needs [15]. - Twelve industries reported positive revenue growth, with the social services sector at 7.3% and the automotive sector at 6.7%, reflecting resilience in consumer spending recovery [15]. - The electronics sector also led in net profit growth at 35.8%, highlighting its strong performance amidst overall market challenges [16]. Group 3: Cash Flow Insights - The top five industries by operating cash flow are coal, transportation, public utilities, steel, and non-ferrous metals, all benefiting from stable demand and short customer payment cycles [19]. - Only 44% of companies maintain a healthy cash flow ratio, indicating that 56% face potential financial strain, with 40% generating insufficient cash flow to match net profits [22]. - The overall market is shifting towards a phase of stable development, focusing on optimizing cash flow structures and reducing reliance on external financing [24]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Industries such as coal and food and beverage are engaging in counter-cyclical investments, with coal transitioning towards solar and hydrogen energy, while food and beverage sectors are expanding into health and international markets [25]. - The comprehensive industry is attempting to capture structural opportunities through diversified investments, although caution is advised regarding potential inefficiencies [25]. - Despite high growth potential, companies remain cautious about future uncertainties, balancing investment activities with operational cash flow [26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianfeng Securities is "Neutral" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the negative profit is mainly influenced by heavy capital business, while the quarterly ROE has improved sequentially [1][5]. - The total operating revenue for the year was 2.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, with a quarterly revenue of 1.3 billion RMB, showing a sequential increase of 7.3 billion RMB [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -30 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 109.7%, with a quarterly profit of 510 million RMB, reflecting a sequential increase of 7.2 million RMB and a year-on-year increase of 6.2 million RMB [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's financial leverage ratio at the end of the reporting period was 3.63 times, a decrease of 0.21 times year-on-year, remaining stable sequentially [5]. - The asset turnover rate was 3.1%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the quarterly asset turnover rate was 1.6%, up 0.8 percentage points sequentially [5]. - The net profit margin for the reporting period was -1.1%, a decrease of 10.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly net profit margin of 37.9%, up 73% sequentially [5]. Business Segment Performance - The net income from heavy capital business was 620 million RMB, with a quarterly income of 740 million RMB, showing a sequential increase of 590 million RMB [5]. - The self-operated business revenue totaled 2.34 billion RMB, with a quarterly revenue of 1.12 billion RMB, reflecting a sequential increase of 530 million RMB [5]. - Brokerage business revenue was 820 million RMB for the quarter, showing a significant sequential increase of 98% and a year-on-year increase of 40.6% [5]. Regulatory Indicators - The risk coverage ratio was 122.7%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the previous period, with a risk capital reserve of 12.5 billion RMB [5]. - The net stable funding ratio was 103.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous period [5]. - The capital leverage ratio was 16.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [5].

Group 1 - The report indicates that A-share revenue showed a decline in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while profit saw a slight recovery with a year-on-year decline of 4.87%. Non-financial sectors experienced a revenue decline of 0.38% but a profit increase of 6.02% [11][12][19] - The report highlights that the main contributors to profit in Q1 2025 were the metal materials and mining, agricultural products, and comprehensive finance sectors, while the banking, coal, real estate, and oil and gas sectors were significant detractors [12][30] - The report notes that the overall ROE for A-shares continued to decline in Q1 2025, with over half of the secondary industries having ROE levels below the historical 40th percentile [44][48] Group 2 - The report identifies that the sectors with the most significant upward adjustments in profit expectations post-Q1 2025 earnings announcements include comprehensive finance, insurance, and media internet, while most sectors saw downward adjustments [12][74] - The report states that the profit margin for A-shares in Q1 2025 was slightly down, with the overall margin at 17.63%, indicating that many industries remain at historical lows [51][54] - The report emphasizes that the agricultural products sector showed remarkable performance with a profit growth rate of 2051.8% in Q1 2025, significantly contributing to the overall profit recovery [29][36]