Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "slightly long" rating for Treasury bonds in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, and may continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The market is affected by factors such as monetary policy expectations, economic data, and government's promotion of consumption and domestic demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher or flat. After a small rise in the morning, they fell back, and fluctuated narrowly horizontally in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2506 fell 0.03%, the 10 - year T2506 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2506 fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.04% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 167.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 102.9 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market rose slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.70% throughout the day (1.65% the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.71% (1.70% the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.99 BP to 1.42%, the 5 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.50%, the 10 - year fell 0.01 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year remained flat at 1.86% [1] - **Policy Signal**: On April 15, Premier Li conducted research in Beijing, stating that greater efforts should be made to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic cycle. A special action to boost consumption should be implemented, and more efforts should be made in stabilizing employment, increasing income, and strengthening security to enhance consumption ability and willingness [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On April 7, People's Daily pointed out that there is sufficient room for adjustment of monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. On April 9, Premier Li said that more proactive and effective macro - policies should be implemented. In March, China's CPI and PPI both fell 0.4% month - on - month, increasing the downward pressure on domestic inflation. The new social financing and credit data in March were better than expected, and the export data in March were also better than expected. The Wande A - share index fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday, and Treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [3]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to undergo short - term range adjustment, with increased volatility, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel [2]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one started to stop production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some expected to stop after January 20, affecting a daily output of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The finished product market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage this year, and weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - On April 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 724,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from last Thursday and 50,000 tons from last Monday. Low weekend arrivals led to a fast de - stocking pace [3]. - The arrival of domestic aluminum sources decreased significantly last week, and the ex - warehouse performance strengthened after the sharp decline in aluminum prices, so the fast de - stocking pace of domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to continue [3]. - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1% last week. Orders have not recovered significantly, and the volatile aluminum prices have increased downstream enterprises' risk - aversion, resulting in a cold market trading atmosphere [3]. - The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand, and China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal. Infrastructure and new - energy stimulus policies may boost aluminum consumption [3]. - The current market is worried about the global economic situation, overseas risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and aluminum price fluctuations have intensified [3]. - The macro - level tariff policy is highly uncertain, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, with attention needed on market sentiment and downstream purchasing [4].

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 海外贸易政策方面， 虽然美国针对中国加征关税持续升级，但全球整体贸易 摩擦风险有所缓解，从 90 天关税暂停，到公布上千种产品关税豁免清单市场情绪 逐步回归稳定，短期趋势或逐步转为震荡，谨慎型投资者可择机止盈。中期来看， 后续国内宏观政策仍有发力空间，不论是降准降息，还是刺激内需等等的相关政 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 每日报告 1.1 ...

Group 1 - In the first quarter of this year, RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, with 3.64 trillion yuan added in March, indicating a significant rise in credit demand [1] - The total social financing increment for the first quarter reached 15.18 trillion yuan, with March's increment at 5.89 trillion yuan, which is 1.06 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][2] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased by 1.6%, reflecting improved business activity [1] Group 2 - Local government bond issuance exceeded 2.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter, with approximately 1.34 trillion yuan used for replacing existing hidden debts [2] - The social financing scale's growth rate is above 8%, indicating a steady upward trend, with expectations of further fiscal expansion in the second quarter [2] - The rebound in credit demand is attributed to proactive macro policies and stabilizing expectations, with both monetary and fiscal policies playing crucial roles [2] Group 3 - The recovery in effective credit demand is a key factor supporting March's loan growth, with significant increases in loans for major projects in the western regions [3] - Long-term household loans grew rapidly, driven by a rebound in the real estate market in key cities, with personal housing loan issuance doubling compared to the previous year [3] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in March was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loans averaged 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the economy amidst external pressures, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve a growth target of around 5% for the year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The first quarter of 2023 is expected to show a stable economic performance, with growth predicted around 5%, supported by a consumption surge during the Spring Festival and advancements in technology [2][3]. - The Chinese economy is facing challenges due to external factors, particularly the impact of the U.S. government's tariff increases, which are anticipated to affect global trade dynamics [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - There is a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy, with specific measures to boost consumption and stabilize employment [2][4]. - Experts suggest increasing fiscal spending on consumer-related initiatives, such as unemployment benefits and subsidies for low-income individuals, to counteract the negative effects of tariffs [4]. Group 3: Expert Insights - Economists and business leaders participating in the discussion highlighted the resilience of China's supply chain and industrial capabilities, which have shown growth despite tariff pressures [4]. - The overall sentiment among domestic and international investors remains optimistic regarding China's economic prospects, supported by a solid policy environment and attractive market valuations [3].

李强：中国今年的宏观政策充分考虑了各种不确定因素，也有充足的储备政策工具，完全能够对冲外部 不利影响 智通财经4月8日电，国务院总理李强4月8日下午同欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话。李强指出，日前， 美国以各种借口宣布对包括中欧在内的所有贸易伙伴滥施关税，这是典型的单边主义、保护主义和经济 霸凌行径。中方采取的坚决措施不仅是为了维护自身主权安全发展利益，也是为了捍卫国际贸易规则和 国际公平正义。人类生活在同一个地球村，没有哪个国家可以独善其身，保护主义没有出路，开放合作 才是人间正道。中欧都是经济全球化和贸易自由化的倡导者、世贸组织的坚定维护者和支持者，应加强 沟通协调，扩大相互开放，共同维护自由开放的贸易投资，维护全球产业链供应链稳定畅通，为双方和 世界经济注入更多稳定性、确定性。中国今年的宏观政策充分考虑了各种不确定因素，也有充足的储备 政策工具，完全能够对冲外部不利影响，对保持自身经济持续健康发展充满信心。中国将继续坚定不移 扩大开放，同包括欧盟在内的世界各国加强合作，分享发展机遇。 ...

姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为71.90%增0.36%；焦 炭日均产 量64.13增0.32，焦 炭库存 129.99减4.96，炼焦煤总库存862.88增40.66，焦煤可用天数 10.1天增0.43天。评：供应端，产地部分煤矿因井下原因及煤 矸石处理问题收紧产量，甘其毛都通关车数环比回升，口岸库 存居高不下，海外澳煤价格低位企稳，澳煤进口性价比暂无。 需求端，焦炭产量小幅增加，刚需支撑仍存，下游采购积极性 好转，上游煤矿小幅去库。总体来看，宏观情绪改善以及刚需 支撑尚存，现货市场情绪有所回暖，盘面估值偏低，下行阻力 加大。煤矿生产仍处高位，基本面改善程度有限，二季度蒙煤 长协价格仍有下调预期，预计短期盘面震荡偏弱。 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1504元/吨，下降3元/ 吨；纯碱开工88.96%，开工窄幅增加；金山、江苏井神检修结 束，盐湖、青海昆仑设备恢复；连云港碱业110万吨/年新产能 预期一季度投产；纯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the role and impact of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in the context of Japan's prolonged economic stagnation, highlighting the challenges and criticisms faced by the central bank in its monetary policy approach [3]. Group 1: Overview of the Bank of Japan - The BOJ has been characterized as a "shamanic central bank" due to its reliance on aggressive monetary policies to combat deflation and stimulate the economy, particularly after the Lehman crisis [3]. - The article emphasizes that there is no "magic wand" solution to Japan's economic stagnation, indicating that over-reliance on macroeconomic policies has created an illusion of effectiveness [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Leadership - The article notes the appointment of the first economist as the BOJ governor, marking a significant shift in leadership and policy direction [4]. - It discusses the departure from long-serving governors, suggesting a potential change in the central bank's approach to economic management [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for proactive macro policies and increased counter-cyclical adjustments to support sustained economic growth and stability [1][2] - The Chinese economy shows significant vitality through various sectors such as film, tourism, and technology, indicating strong domestic economic potential [1] - The government aims for a GDP growth target of around 5%, reflecting confidence in its governance capabilities and future development potential [2] Group 2 - The focus is on deepening economic reforms and promoting a unified national market to enhance the business environment and support innovation [2] - The international perspective highlights the importance of open markets and resource sharing among nations to address global economic fragmentation and uncertainty [3] - China is committed to maintaining economic globalization, advocating for fair competition, and facilitating foreign enterprises' integration into the Chinese market [3]

作为中国向全球回应经济发展热点、释放开放合作信号的重磅会议，中国发展高层论坛今年迎 来2 5周年。中国发展高层论坛2 0 2 5年年会于3月2 3日至2 4日在北京钓鱼台国宾馆召开。 今年中国发展高层论坛的主题为"全面释放发展动能，共促全球经济稳定增长"。会议期间，中 外嘉宾将围绕宏观政策、改革、提振消费、新质生产力、人工智能等议题举行1 2场专题研讨 来源：中国青年报 会。 上述专题研讨会分别聚焦宏观政策与经济增长、改革激发增长新动能、提振消费与扩大内需、 以科技创新引领新质生产力发展、人工智能普惠包容发展、人口结构变化的挑战与机遇、经济 全球化新趋势与扩大制度型开放等重要领域。 这是两会后举办的首个国家级大型国际论坛， 吸引了1 0 0多位外方代表参加，今年首次参会的 跨国企业数量创下新高 。 国务院总理李强3月2 3日上午在北京出席中国发展高层论坛2 0 2 5年年会开幕式并发表主旨演 讲。李强指出，今年春节前后，中国经济涌现出一批现象级的亮点。电影、冰雪、文旅等消费 市场热点纷呈，展现了国内经济循环的巨大潜力。以"杭州六小龙"等初创企业为代表的科技突 破不断涌现，展现了创新创造的巨大能量。绿色家电、新 ...