Economic Policy and Strategy - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - A more proactive fiscal policy will be implemented, including the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - Monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately to promote a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society while maintaining ample liquidity [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The focus will be on promoting consumption to effectively release domestic demand potential, with an allocation of 138 billion yuan for the "old for new" consumption subsidy program [3] - Policies will be developed to support service consumption in areas such as elderly care, childcare, culture, and tourism, alongside financial policies to stimulate personal consumption loans [3] Market and Competition - The importance of improving supply quality through deepening reforms and stimulating market vitality is highlighted, particularly in the context of transitioning to new growth drivers [3] - The establishment of a unified national market is essential to optimize market competition and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises [3] Capital Market and Economic Stability - The capital market's role as an economic barometer is increasing, and enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness is crucial for stabilizing economic recovery [4] - The combination of short-term goals and long-term tasks, driven by policy tools and deepening reforms, is necessary to ensure the completion of annual economic and social development goals [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting is to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the continuation and enhancement of macro policies to support economic recovery [1] - The meeting highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to fully release the effects of these policies [2][3] - There is an expectation for the acceleration of the issuance and utilization of special government bonds and local government bonds to improve fund utilization efficiency [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized maintaining reasonable liquidity and promoting a decline in the overall financing costs in society through structural monetary policy tools [4] - Experts predict that new incremental measures, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, may be introduced based on actual conditions in the second half of the year [4] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitoring the transmission and effectiveness of previously implemented policies [4]

● 本报记者 彭扬 连润 广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金分析，预计有关部门下半年将继续落实好此前已出台的各项 政策措施，如超长期特别国债发行与使用、"两重"建设、"两新"工作、新型政策性金融工具等，增强政 策持续性，充分释放政策效应。 财政部部长蓝佛安7月30日表示，加快发行和使用超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券，尽早形成实物 工作量。发挥财政资金引导和带动效应，推动各项政策效能不断释放。加大稳就业政策实施力度，有力 实施稳岗返还、税费减免、就业补贴等政策，强化重点群体就业保障。 保持流动性合理充裕 关于货币政策，会议指出，货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性 货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究了当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 专家表示，有关部门下半年将继续落实好此前已出台的各项政策措施，增强政策的持续性，充分释放政 策效应。根据国内外经济形势变化，宏观政策将持续发力适时加力，持续巩固经济回升向好势头。 加快政府债券发行使用 会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策 ...

要实现"十四五"圆满收官，做好下半年经济工作至关重要。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议明确，着力稳 就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""努力完成全年经 济社会发展目标任务"，并作出一系列重要部署，释放了多重信号。 ◎本报记者集体采写 看点1 宏观政策 要持续发力、适时加力 宏观政策是经济保持平稳运行的重要推动力。7月30日中央政治局会议提出，宏观政策要持续发力、适 时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。 本次会议重申坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，延续了4月中央政治局会议"加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"的表述，同时提到"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期"。 粤开证券首席经济学家兼研究院院长罗志恒表示，"适时加力""增强灵活性预见性"意味着：一方面，延 续前期政策，落实既定的财政货币金融政策，做好政策接续，不搞大拐弯，让经营主体有稳定的政策预 期和市场预期，推动经济持续平稳运行；另一方面，也要看到政策的连续性，同时根据形势变化做出灵 活调整， ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Overview - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to be adjusted as necessary, indicating a stable growth orientation for the second half of the year [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance announced a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that fiscal policies remain effective and robust, with a focus on the issuance and utilization of government bonds [2] - As of June 30, the central government had transferred 9.29 trillion yuan to local governments, and over 90% of the central budget investment had been allocated [2] - The issuance of special government bonds is expected to accelerate, with a total of 27.776 billion yuan in new special bonds issued this year, representing a 56.5% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on ensuring ample liquidity and reducing the overall financing costs for society [4] - The central bank is expected to utilize various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [5] - There is a possibility of further interest rate cuts, although the extent may be limited due to the narrowing net interest margins of commercial banks [5]

Group 1 - The meeting held by the Central Committee aimed to gather opinions on the current economic situation and work for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for stability and progress in economic policies [1][2] - Key leaders from various democratic parties and organizations expressed their support for the Central Committee's analysis of the economic situation and provided suggestions on promoting technological and industrial innovation, enhancing service consumption, and improving social security for flexible employment groups [2][3] - Xi Jinping highlighted the importance of recognizing risks and challenges in the economy while leveraging development opportunities and advantages to sustain economic recovery [3][4] Group 2 - Xi Jinping called for a unified understanding among democratic parties and organizations regarding the Central Committee's economic analysis and urged them to promote high-quality development by utilizing their strengths and resources [4][5] - The meeting underscored the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support, expansion of domestic demand, and deepening reforms to foster innovation and safeguard livelihoods [3][4]

Core Points - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, focusing on economic and social development strategies [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the need to maintain strategic confidence and adapt to complex changes in the economic environment, while leveraging China's institutional advantages and market potential [1][2] - The meeting called for a proactive macroeconomic policy to ensure stable economic growth and to address risks and challenges in the current economic landscape [3][4] Economic Development Strategy - The meeting underscored the necessity of adhering to Marxist principles and Xi Jinping's thoughts to achieve the goal of building a modern socialist country and promoting national rejuvenation [2] - Emphasis was placed on achieving qualitative improvements in the economy while ensuring reasonable quantitative growth, focusing on comprehensive development and common prosperity [2][3] Policy Recommendations - The meeting advocated for a continuation of active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness and support economic recovery [3][4] - It was recommended to stimulate domestic demand, particularly through consumption initiatives and effective investment strategies [3][4] Reform and Innovation - The meeting stressed the importance of deepening reforms and fostering technological innovation to enhance productivity and develop competitive emerging industries [4][5] - There was a call to optimize market competition and regulate local investment behaviors to ensure a fair business environment [4] Employment and Social Welfare - The meeting highlighted the priority of employment policies, particularly for vulnerable groups such as graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [5] - It emphasized the need for food security and maintaining reasonable prices for essential agricultural products to support rural development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, while analyzing the current economic situation and deploying economic work for the second half of the year [1] Fiscal Policy - The meeting emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund efficiency [1][5] - The focus of fiscal policy will be on the issuance and use of government bonds, with an expected increase in the pace of issuance [6][5] - The total new deficit, special bonds, and ultra-long special bonds for the year amount to 11.86 trillion yuan, with significant progress in issuance by mid-year [6] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with an emphasis on promoting a decline in overall financing costs [1][5] - There is potential for further monetary easing through tools like reverse repos and MLF, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [5][6] - Structural monetary policy tools will continue to support key areas such as technological innovation and small enterprises [5] Domestic Demand - The meeting highlighted the need to effectively unleash domestic demand, with a focus on expanding consumption and fostering new growth points in service consumption [9][11] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP reached 52.3% in the second quarter, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [11] - Policies will be implemented to improve the income capacity of low- and middle-income families, thereby boosting consumption [12] Investment and Economic Growth - The meeting called for high-quality promotion of "two重" construction to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment [9][12] - There is an expectation for infrastructure investment to gain momentum in the second half of the year, with a focus on breaking down market barriers and optimizing the business environment [12] - The service sector is identified as a key area for consumption growth, with recommendations for policies to enhance service consumption [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges while promoting growth and stability in the second half of the year [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The meeting assesses that China's economy has shown strong vitality and resilience in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [2]. - However, there are ongoing risks such as insufficient effective demand, low price levels, and challenges from trade conflicts that may persist into the next five-year plan [2][4]. - The economic cycle is still in the destocking phase, necessitating targeted incremental policies to stimulate various sectors [2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for sustained and timely macroeconomic policies, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [5][6]. - Emphasis is placed on the effective implementation of existing policies, with a focus on structural and targeted support rather than broad-based measures [5][6]. - The government aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency, with over 2.2 trillion yuan in new local government bonds issued by mid-2023 [5]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlights the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, particularly through boosting consumption and fostering new growth points in service consumption [8]. - Service consumption is identified as a key driver for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand, with recent policies aimed at improving living standards to further stimulate consumption [8]. Group 4: Market Competition and Industry Governance - The meeting stresses the need to promote a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition and excess capacity in key industries [9][10]. - Specific measures include controlling new capacity in traditional industries and supporting innovation in emerging sectors to avoid administrative overreach [9]. Group 5: Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting emphasizes the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, providing support to affected foreign trade enterprises and optimizing export tax rebate policies [11]. - Policies will be introduced to assist foreign trade companies in exploring non-U.S. overseas markets and to facilitate the transition of export goods to domestic sales [11]. Group 6: Local Government Debt Management - The meeting reiterates the importance of managing local government debt risks and prohibits the creation of new hidden debts, aiming for a clear separation between government and enterprise financing [12]. - The focus is on a gradual and effective approach to clearing local financing platforms while ensuring risk control [12]. Group 7: Capital Market Development - The meeting calls for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to support stable growth [13][14]. - Suggestions include improving investment return expectations, increasing financing convenience, and expanding the range of financial tools available to support market stability [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic planning for the next five years and the economic measures for the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the potential introduction of new policies to stimulate economic growth [1][4][5]. Economic Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for macroeconomic policies to continue to exert force and to be timely and effective, with a focus on "implementation" and "fully releasing policy effects" [1][5]. - Fiscal policy will prioritize accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while monetary policy aims to lower overall financing costs and utilize structural monetary policy tools effectively [1][6]. Consumer Demand and Investment - The meeting emphasized the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, implementing actions to boost consumption, and fostering new growth points in service consumption [1][10]. - The contribution of final consumption to GDP reached 52.3% in the second quarter, indicating a strong reliance on subsidies for consumption growth, particularly in the "old-for-new" replacement category [11]. Key Focus Areas for the Second Half - Three main tasks were outlined to effectively release domestic demand potential: 1. Implementing actions to boost consumption while fostering new growth points in service consumption [10][11]. 2. Expanding consumption demand through improvements in living standards, particularly for low- and middle-income families [12]. 3. Promoting high-quality infrastructure construction to stimulate private investment and effective investment [13]. Service Consumption Insights - Service consumption is identified as a critical area for boosting overall consumption, with a need for targeted measures to address challenges such as income stability and supply shortages [13][14]. - Specific recommendations include shifting subsidies from goods to services, optimizing labor rights and vacation policies, addressing educational issues for migrant workers' children, and enhancing public investment in service quality [15].