Core Viewpoint - The public fund fee reform initiated in July 2023 is reshaping the industry landscape, focusing on optimizing the fee structure to promote high-quality development in the public fund sector [1] Group 1: Fee Reduction Initiatives - Major fund companies have reduced management fees for actively managed equity funds from 1.5% to 1.2%, with custodial fees also lowered from 0.25% to 0.2% as of July 10, 2023 [2] - Over 70 equity mixed funds now have management fees below 1%, and some funds, like ICBC Credit Suisse's fund, will reduce fees to 0.8% starting July 11, 2025 [2] - The fee reduction has expanded to various fund categories, including ETFs and bond funds, with many broad-based stock ETFs lowering management fees to 0.15% and custodial fees to 0.05% [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Investors - The average comprehensive fee rate for public funds decreased from 1.41% in 2022 to 1.29% in 2023, and is projected to drop further to 1.03% in 2024, saving investors over 15 billion yuan [3] - The implementation of new regulations on trading commissions is expected to reduce brokerage commission income for public funds by over 35% in 2024 [3] Group 3: Innovative Fee Structures - A new floating management fee mechanism has been introduced, linking fees to fund performance, with rates varying based on the fund's performance relative to benchmarks [4][5] - As of July 10, 2023, 24 products under this new fee structure have been established, with a total issuance scale of 22.68 billion yuan [5] Group 4: Future Directions - The third phase of the fee reform will focus on reducing sales fees, with expectations of saving investors approximately 45 billion yuan annually starting in 2025 [6] - The ongoing fee reform is believed to enhance investor experience and shift the industry focus from scale to returns, as lower fees correlate with better fund performance [6][7]

美联储就其监管大型银行的拟议改革征求意见。该提案将调整监管框架，使大型银行更容易被视为"管 理良好"，不受活动限制。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite a general recovery in European financial markets, France is experiencing a decline in investor confidence due to structural political and economic challenges [1][4][6] - France's bond and stock markets are underperforming compared to other European countries, with the CAC40 index showing a return of approximately 6.7% year-to-date, lagging behind the European Stoxx 600's 8.3% and Germany's DAX index's 23.3% [3][4] - The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds remains around 70 basis points, significantly higher than the 50 basis points before the political turmoil in June 2022, indicating a lack of investor confidence in French assets [2][4] Group 2 - France's public debt reached €3.3 trillion last year, surpassing Italy's by approximately €300 billion, with projections indicating it could rise to about €3.35 trillion by Q1 2025, leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 114% [4][5] - The political fragmentation in France has hindered effective fiscal policy, with the government unable to secure a majority in parliament, resulting in a lack of decisive action to address budget deficits [6][7] - Analysts suggest that unless France can implement significant fiscal reforms, investor confidence is unlikely to improve, with some indicating the possibility of needing assistance from the International Monetary Fund if fiscal control is not established [7]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a unified national market is essential for the smooth flow and efficient allocation of resources, which is a cornerstone for high-quality development [1] Group 1: Policy and Reform Initiatives - The Central Committee and State Council have emphasized the need to promote the free flow of goods and resources across a larger scope, aiming to create a unified market for factors and resources [1] - Various regions are intensifying reforms for market-oriented allocation of factors, continuously improving the institutional framework to enhance the flow of resources [1][3] - A series of reform measures are being implemented to address issues such as rural land utilization, urban settlement policies, and the integration of capital markets for small and medium enterprises [5][9] Group 2: Talent Mobility and Development - The facilitation of talent mobility is a critical aspect of building a resource market, with significant reforms in regions like Shenzhen and Chongqing to attract and retain skilled professionals [2][3] - In Shenzhen, over 12,000 Hong Kong residents have benefited from relaxed employment regulations, enhancing the local talent pool [2] - In Chongqing, reforms have led to the recognition of 645 rural talents with senior titles, addressing talent shortages in public services and engineering [2] Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Efficiency - The establishment of unified trading rules and standards is crucial for breaking down barriers and enhancing the efficiency of resource transactions [6][10] - The electricity market in Shanxi exemplifies the shift towards a competitive pricing mechanism, allowing for real-time price adjustments and promoting the utilization of renewable energy [7] - The data market is projected to exceed 160 billion yuan in transaction volume by 2024, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth, indicating positive trends in the factor market [6] Group 4: Ecosystem Development and Collaboration - A robust ecosystem is vital for the orderly flow of resources, with initiatives aimed at attracting diverse participants to create complete industrial chains [11] - The Shenzhen Data Exchange has seen a compound annual growth rate of over 50% in transaction volume, indicating a thriving data trading environment [11] - Collaborative efforts across regions, such as the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor, aim to integrate supply chains and enhance innovation ecosystems [12]

在下议院长达半小时的首相问答环节中，里夫斯显得疲惫不堪，似乎在擦眼泪。她的发言人表示， 这只是她个人的问题。斯塔默的新闻秘书告诉记者："财政大臣不会离开，她得到了首相的全力支持。" 在政府设法通过福利改革法案之后，里夫斯面临着压力，但前提是该法案取消了那些从长远来看可 以节省开支的措施。里夫斯多次强调她对自我实施财政规则的承诺，限制英国的借款额度，以试图建立 投资者的信心。 （原标题：英福利法案通过，斯塔默力挺里夫斯） 路透社7月2日消息，斯塔默周三给予财政大臣里夫斯全力支持，此前，里夫斯在福利改革问题上出 现一系列180度大转弯，导致其预算计划出现漏洞。 但这一雄心与工党议员发生了冲突，他们反对大幅削减福利，并表示里夫斯向社会上一些最弱势的 群体施压，以节省数十亿英镑的行为很残忍。反对党和经济学家表示，大幅缩减福利改革的决定意味着 政府将不得不提高税收或削减其他开支，以在今年晚些时候的年度预算中平衡公共财政。一位不愿透露 姓名的工党议员表示，里夫斯与下议院议长霍伊尔发生争执后感到不安。反对党保守党领袖巴德诺赫在 每周例行的议会会议上，称里夫斯是斯塔默无能的人肉盾牌。 英国借贷成本上升，英镑下跌，市场分析师表 ...

中新网天津7月10日电(记者周亚强)"数字经济是新时代的丝绸之路。这条新丝绸之路正在重塑国家竞争 力、产业结构和全球合作格局。"埃及前国家行政发展部长、前苏伊士运河经济区主席艾哈迈德·达维史 10日在天津表示。 当天，"2025上合组织数字经济论坛国资国企数字化技术应用推介会"在天津举行。来自上合组织数字经 济论坛参会企业嘉宾、专家学者和央企、国企、民企代表等近260人齐聚一堂，共商数字经济交流合作 大计，探讨国资国企在数字化技术应用领域的实践成果与创新路径。 艾哈迈德·达维史在会上表示，中国拥有领先的数字基础设施和丰富的国企改革经验，埃及则具备年轻 人才储备和区域枢纽优势，双方可在智慧基础设施建设、工业互联网发展、数字人才培养、金融科技与 跨境支付等方面开展合作。他同时建议设立中埃国企数字转型工作组，围绕标准制定、网络安全和投融 资建立专项机制。 天津市政府副秘书长王智毅在致辞中指出，中国近年来在推动数字经济发展方面成效显著，天津作为中 国北方对外开放重要门户和先进制造研发基地，在人工智能、大数据、物联网、智能制造等领域形成了 显著优势。他介绍，天津国资国企在数字经济浪潮中积极作为，成果丰硕。 展望未来合作 ...

Core Viewpoint - Employment is the cornerstone of economic and social stability, requiring supportive policies such as special loans for job retention and expansion, as well as unemployment insurance refunds, alongside comprehensive reforms in social security and fiscal tax systems [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Policies - The State Council has issued a notice to enhance support for employment policies, focusing on stabilizing jobs, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote high-quality economic development [2]. - A key highlight of the notice is the leverage of employment policies through the expansion of special loans for job retention and expansion, optimizing business processes, and enhancing loan accessibility [2][3]. - The notice emphasizes placing enterprises at the center of employment stability efforts, including increasing the unemployment insurance refund ratio for small and medium-sized enterprises from a maximum of 60% to 90% of their previous year's contributions [2][4]. Group 2: Financial and Social Support - The expansion of the "work-for-relief" policy aims to cover more projects and maintain the dignity of temporarily unemployed individuals while encouraging them to seek employment opportunities [3]. - Effective implementation of unemployment insurance refunds and social insurance subsidies is crucial for stabilizing employment, necessitating a review of the economic and social evolution paths of these policies [4][5]. - The need for systemic reforms in social security and fiscal tax systems is highlighted to alleviate the burden on enterprises, thereby enhancing their investment returns and capacity for job retention and expansion [4][5][6]. Group 3: Governance and Market Environment - A conducive employment-friendly environment requires not only financial support but also institutional reforms to broaden market activities and improve the business environment [5][6]. - The government is urged to create a public governance environment that is responsive to market needs while minimizing unnecessary interference, thus fostering a low-cost, high-efficiency market demand [5][6]. - The importance of legal and institutional stability is emphasized to inject more freedom and development space into the market, thereby building a sustainable employment-friendly environment [6].

智通财经APP获悉，近日，大摩发布行业研究报告指出，近期中国政府对太阳能行业的无序竞争问题愈发关 注，但认为太阳能行业供给侧改革的实施存在不确定，在执行层面，存在需求疲软、市场参与者以民营企业 为主等风险。与2024年10月的上次短期上涨相比，大摩认为中央政府对光伏市场无序竞争的关注度有所提 升，而行业基本面却在恶化。 行业观点：具有吸引力 自6月30日至7月8日，中国太阳能股票——尤其是多晶硅企业（通威、大全、协鑫集成和新特）股价上涨了 28%-36%（相比之下，恒生指数上涨0.3%，上证综指上涨1.5%）。 大摩列举以下供给侧改革相关新闻动态： 6月29日，《人民日报》强调了太阳能组件行业的内卷式竞争。 （1）由于5月的政策节点（2025年1-5月太阳能装机量为198GW），2025年下半年光伏需求可能会下降。 （2）中国光伏制造价值链由民营企业主导，且2022年以来，许多新产能是在地方政府招商引资的背景下建成 的。 （3）光伏价值链上的多晶硅/硅片/电池片/组件等环节的大部分新产能建于2022-2024年，并且采用了新的减排 标准和新技术。 （4）多晶硅库存水平较高（>300千吨），相当于四个月或以上的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is experiencing a wave of fee reductions, which is seen as a necessary step to enhance investor experience and shift the focus from scale to performance-driven management [1][4][5]. Group 1: Fee Reduction Actions - Since July 2023, several leading fund companies, including E Fund and ICBC Credit Suisse, have announced reductions in management and custody fees across various fund categories, including bond, mixed, and money market funds [2][3]. - E Fund reduced the custody fee for two bond funds from 0.1% to 0.05%, while also lowering management fees for these funds earlier in May [2]. - ICBC Credit Suisse adjusted the management fee for its mixed fund from 1.2% to 0.8%, and other companies like Guotai Asset Management and Dongwu Asset Management have also made similar fee adjustments [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Fee Reform - Over the past two years, approximately 4,295 fund products have implemented fee reductions, accounting for over 40% of existing products, with a total fee reduction of 24.467 billion yuan, representing an 11.33% decrease [1][3][5]. - The total fees collected by the public fund industry reached 191.537 billion yuan last year, while the total scale of products was 32.76 trillion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in fees despite a 26.45% increase in total scale compared to the previous year [5]. - The industry is transitioning from a scale-oriented approach to one focused on investor returns, which is expected to enhance the quality of services and investment performance [6][7]. Group 3: Future Directions and Innovations - The industry is exploring new fee structures, such as performance-based floating management fees, which are linked to fund performance, as part of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" [7]. - A total of 26 new floating fee funds have been successfully raised, with 24 products collecting 22.68 billion yuan, indicating a growing acceptance of this model [7]. - Fund companies are also adjusting their performance evaluation mechanisms to focus on long-term investor experience and returns, moving away from short-term scale-driven incentives [7].

Report Summary 1. Overall Market Outlook - The expectation of "anti-involution" is difficult to disprove, and commodities are generally strong [1]. 2. Variety Analysis 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The stock index rose and then fell on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3500 points. The trading volume of the two markets continued to rise to 1.53 trillion yuan. The media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and comprehensive finance sectors led the gains, while non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals led the losses [1]. - As the stock index valuation rises to a high level, market caution has increased. Without new positive news, the market will return to high-level volatility in the short term. Considering the significant impact of the mid-year report performance in July, the IF and IH contracts with clear constituent stock earnings may be more resilient. Overall, although there are still uncertainties in the external environment, the A-share market shows resilience, and the trading volume has increased, with the oscillation center expected to continue to move up [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market remained loose, and the bond market remained at a high level. The bond futures rose slightly yesterday and remained within the range. Domestically, the latest inflation data was still weak. Trump announced a second wave of tariff letters involving eight countries. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials believed that tariffs might continue to push up inflation [1]. - The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation, but the capital market remained loose. The equity market did not continue its strength yesterday, reducing the drag on the bond market. Overall, with high macro uncertainty, the bond market has limited directional drivers. However, with an optimistic capital market outlook, the bond market will remain at a high level. But there are still risks of high valuation pressure and high congestion. Continue to monitor the performance of the equity market, and the stock-bond seesaw may continue [1]. 2.3 Gold and Silver Futures - The US government continued to release new tariff policy information, which had limited impact on the market. The logic of factors such as services and inflation that are favorable to gold prices has not been disproven, and the central bank's continuous gold purchase behavior has not ended. In the short term, gold prices will continue to oscillate at a high level, but the long-term upward trend has not been broken [1][4]. - The gold-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is at the 68.5% quantile in the past three years. The silver price fluctuates with gold, and after the silver price breaks through, the support around 8500 is strong. Strategically, it is recommended to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options on the August contracts of gold and silver until expiration, or transfer the position to the October contracts [4]. 2.4 Non-Ferrous Metals Futures - **Copper**: The LME copper performed the weakest, and the inventory continued to rise. The Shanghai copper followed the LME copper and fell sharply at the opening yesterday, then oscillated at a low level. The domestic inflation data was still weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The supply at the mine end remained tight, and the demand outlook was still cautious. Affected by Trump's statement of a 50% tariff increase on copper, the COMEX and LME copper prices diverged, with the premium exceeding 25%. However, due to the large inflow of copper in the US, the market's expectation of copper surplus in the US after the tariff implementation increased. The inventory of the three major exchanges has been rising, and the domestic market generally followed the LME, but the decline was slightly smaller. The financial attribute still supports copper prices in the medium to long term, but the tariff policy is uncertain, and the structural mismatch persists, so copper price fluctuations may increase [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina prices continued to be strong, breaking through 3200. The Shanghai aluminum oscillated higher at night. The domestic inflation data was weak, and Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's view on inflation affected the market. The recent strength of alumina prices was mainly due to the "anti-involution" expectation, but the excess capacity situation remained unchanged. The supply of Shanghai aluminum was constrained, and the import profit was inverted. The demand was cautious due to the off-season, and the inventory showed signs of accumulation. Overall, alumina is temporarily strong due to sentiment, but the upside is uncertain. The medium-term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short-term demand and inventory are dragging, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level [4]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has seasonally recovered, and the port inventory has increased significantly, causing the nickel ore price to decline marginally. In June, the nickel iron production in Indonesia and China decreased by 3.85% month-on-month but increased by 22.21% year-on-year. The supply was relatively abundant, but downstream demand was limited. The price of intermediate products was relatively firm. The nickel fundamentals have not improved, and the off-season demand is not favorable. The supply pressure has increased with the increase in the Philippines' ore supply. Recently, the nickel price has oscillated lower, but the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has boosted the demand for MHP, and the price of intermediate products has rebounded. As the nickel price dropped to 119,000 yuan, the downward momentum weakened, and it will continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term. The short position of out-of-the-money call options strategy can be continued [4][6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of spodumene and lepidolite have continued to rise, driving up the lithium price due to increased mining costs. However, the improvement in the lithium carbonate fundamentals is limited. The production capacity of salt lakes has continued to increase seasonally, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has remained at a relatively high level this year. The downstream demand has not increased, and the production schedules of battery cell and cathode enterprises have been mediocre. The traditional off-season will also limit the growth rate of terminal demand. The lithium carbonate inventory is still in the accumulation cycle, and the upside of the price is limited. It is advisable to short at high levels during this stage of the rebound [6]. - **Silicon Energy**: The supply-side reform and industry restructuring expectations of the polysilicon industry have increased significantly due to the policy signal of capacity regulation. The recent strong performance of the polysilicon spot price has further promoted the rise of the polysilicon futures price. In the short term, the sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not fully reflected. Overall, the policy support for the price is strong, and it is advisable to hold the short position of put options [6]. 2.5 Steel and Iron Ore Futures - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar fluctuated slightly yesterday. The trading volume of construction steel decreased to 88,500 tons. The demand in the off-season has no bright spots, and the market drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again. The market expectation is optimistic, but the time for the implementation of supply contraction is uncertain. On the one hand, the profit of electric arc furnaces has recovered, and there is a risk of increased production in the off-season. On the other hand, the profit of long-process steel mills is good, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the rebar futures price will oscillate strongly, with the bottom rising and the upside limited by the electric arc furnace cost. The option-selling strategy is temporarily better than the single-sided futures strategy. It is recommended to continue to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (RB2510P2900) [6]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot price of hot rolled coil fluctuated yesterday. The demand in the off-season is average, both in reality and expectation. Overseas orders for automobiles and home appliances have weakened, and the domestic "trade-in" policy has limited room. The price difference between domestic and foreign steel has narrowed significantly, and the pressure on direct exports may increase. The market upward drivers are concentrated on steel supply and raw materials. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the expectation of crude steel production reduction has increased. The long-process steel mills are actively producing, and the production cost has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price of coking coal has increased rapidly, and there are also plans to increase the price of coke. It is expected that the hot rolled coil futures price will oscillate strongly this week, with the bottom cost rising and the upside limited by the export cost. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see on the single side, and consider continuing to hold the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits on the January contracts [6][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and there are rumors of crude steel production restrictions again, but the time for the implementation of steel mill production cuts is uncertain. In the short term, the profit of steel mills still encourages long-process steel mills to maintain an active production rhythm. The daily output of domestic blast furnace hot metal has declined slowly at a high level. Under the background of high hot metal output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply-demand contradiction of imported iron ore in July is limited. The iron ore price is running strongly, compressing the profit of steel mills. The upside of the iron ore price in the off-season is mainly limited by the resumption of electric arc furnace production and the narrowing of the steel price difference between domestic and foreign markets, which restricts the upside of steel prices. It is advisable to hold the short position of out-of-the-money put options (I2509-P-700) and continue to hold the iron ore 9-1 positive spread strategy (spread 27.5, +0.5) [8]. 2.6 Coal and Coke Futures - **Coking Coal**: The auction price at the mine mouth has continued to rise, and the replenishment enthusiasm of steel and coke enterprises and the willingness of the trading sector to enter the market have continued to increase. It is expected that the raw coal inventory of coal mines will further decrease, and the temporary supply-demand mismatch is still favorable for coal prices. The long position strategy can be continued. Recently, attention should be paid to the production increase progress of mines after the safety production month [8]. - **Coke**: The production enthusiasm of steel mills is good, and the daily output of hot metal has remained at a relatively high level in the off-season. The demand for coke in the furnace is supported, and steel mills are still purchasing raw materials. The port trading activity has also increased, and the spot price has increased. The futures price has also shown a strong trend [8]. 2.7 Soda Ash and Glass Futures - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental negative factors are clear, that is, supply exceeds demand. Yesterday, the daily production of soda ash increased to 102,900 tons (+500 tons). Kunshan produced products last night, and Lianyungang Alkali Industry plans to increase production on the 11th. The demand lacks bright spots, and the daily consumption of rigid demand is about 98,000 tons (including exports). Alkali plants may continue to accumulate inventory passively. However, at the micro level, after the single-sided position of the September contracts of soda ash reached a record high, it has rebounded after three consecutive days of position reduction. The single-sided position is still as high as more than 1.59 million lots (equivalent to 31.8 million tons), and the virtual position ratio is too high. Be vigilant against the risk of short squeeze in the market due to the "anti-involution" expectation or sentiment. It is advisable to hold the short position of the September contracts of soda ash with a stop-profit line. From the perspective of the production capacity cycle, glass is stronger than soda ash, and the strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash can be patiently held (spread -112, -13) [8]. - **Float Glass**: The fundamentals have not changed much. The operating production capacity of float glass has remained stable. Yesterday, the average sales rate of glass in the four major production areas decreased to 97% (-5%). The futures price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of spot purchases based on futures. It is expected that the glass factory will reduce inventory by 1.7 million heavy boxes this week. The main driver of the off-season market comes from the supply side. The "anti-involution" expectation is difficult to disprove, and the production capacity of glass factories using petroleum coke and natural gas processes has been in a loss state, and the probability of cold repair is increasing. It is believed that the probability of the realization of the supply contraction expectation in the far-month contracts may gradually increase. Strategically, it is recommended to go long on the January contracts at low prices on the single side and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on the January contracts of glass and shorting the January contracts of soda ash (spread -112, -13) [8]. 2.8 Energy Futures - **Crude Oil**: The market is currently in a stage where OPEC+ is accelerating production increases and the US is in a peak demand season. The market assesses that the excess pressure is relatively limited, but the US API inventory shows a significant accumulation of 7.128 million barrels of crude oil, far exceeding expectations, and the monthly spread has started to cool recently. The expectation of tight supply in the US market will be alleviated. It is expected that the short-term rebound space of oil prices is limited, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on rebounds [10]. - **Methanol**: This week, the arrival volume was 310,300 (+55,700) tons, with an increase of 126,200 tons in Jiangsu and a decrease of 15,000 tons each in Guangdong and Fujian. Affected by the increase in the arrival volume, the inventory in East China ports increased by 61,000 tons, and that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. Currently, the port inventory has reached the highest level since April but is still at a historical low for the same period. The factory inventory only increased by 4,600 tons. Although the spot trading volume has declined, the production enterprise's operating rate has also decreased. The "anti-involution" has no direct impact on the methanol industry chain for the time being, but the rebound in coal prices and the disappearance of pessimistic sentiment can provide some support for methanol futures [10]. 2.9 Chemical Futures - **Polyolefins**: Although OPEC+ has increased production, tariffs and geopolitical factors have supported the rebound of crude oil prices. This week, the spot trading has been sluggish, and the production enterprise's inventory has increased, with PE increasing by 12.5% and PP increasing by 2%. The social inventory has also increased, with PE increasing by 2.1% and PP increasing by 3.2%. In previous years, the inventory decreased during the same period, but this year it has continued to increase since June, indicating an oversupply situation. Recently, there have been concentrated production cuts in coal mines and new energy metals, triggering expectations of a new round of supply-side reforms, but it is difficult to have a substantial positive impact on polyolefins in the short term, and the price will continue to decline from July to August [10]. 2.10 Agricultural Futures - **Cotton**: In terms of supply, multiple regiments in Xinjiang have been affected by hail, and the damage to cotton fields varies. The weather theme has boosted the cotton price to run strongly. In terms of demand, terminal orders are mainly small and scattered, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. Some enterprises have started to take high-temperature holidays or reduce production capacity due to sales pressure and high temperatures. In terms of inventory, the decline rate of the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June has slowed down compared with last month, but the year-on-year decline in Xinjiang's cotton inventory has increased. Overall, the expectation of tight supply at the end of this year still strongly supports the futures price. It is recommended to continue to hold the previous long positions [10]. - **Rubber**: The market sentiment is optimistic, and the rubber price has oscillated and rebounded. However, the automobile market has entered the traditional off-season, and tire enterprises still face inventory reduction pressure, so the demand expectation is not positive. The production in domestic and Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries has increased smoothly during the peak season, the weather conditions in the producing areas are normal, and the negative impact of climate change on rubber tapping operations has gradually weakened. The price of raw materials in the Hat Yai market has continued to decline. The rubber fundamentals continue to show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, which may limit the upside of the rubber price [10].