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央行连续第7个月增持黄金,黄金ETF华夏(518850)高位回调,机构:多重因素导致黄金易涨难跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 04:00
Group 1 - The US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and a decline in gold prices [1] - Chinese central bank's gold reserves increased to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing potential price increases due to inflation eroding real yields and economic slowdown impacting equities and cyclical commodities [1] Group 2 - Despite a slowdown in the US economy, non-farm employment and unemployment rates remain stable, indicating that a recession has not yet occurred [2] - The pressure on the dollar is easing, but geopolitical factors and a weak dollar may still lead to a challenging environment for gold prices [2] - The recent slight pullback in gold prices is influenced by tariff uncertainties, but the overall price trend is expected to rise [1][2]
冠通每日交易策略-20250606
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 11:10
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 6 月 06 日 热点品种 豆粕: 豆粕主力 09 合约今日盘面高开后震荡上升,收盘涨幅 1.90%。国际方面,美国 目前估计大豆种植面积为 8400 万英亩,较上一年度减少 3.4%,比美国农业部 3 月 31 日种植意向报告估计的 8350 万英亩多 50 万英亩。2025/26 年度美国大豆 产量预估为 1.17 亿吨(预估区间 1.08-1.22 亿吨),较上次预估持平,因种植 季早期天气条件温和,种植进度稳健,但夏季的长期天气前景仍然相当黯淡。国 内方面,截止 5 月 30 日,油厂大豆实际压榨量 226.82 万吨,开机率为 63.76%, 大豆库存 582.88 万吨,较上周增加 22.25 万吨,增幅 3.97%,同比去年增加 98.98 万吨,增幅 20.45%。豆粕库存 29.8 万吨,较上周增加 9.11 万吨,增幅 44.03%, 同比去年减少 55.81 万吨,减幅 65.19%。综合来看,豆粕期货前期盘面呈现一 轮上涨后,近 ...
冠通每日交易策略-20250605
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 09:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal futures market will show a volatile trend as the upward drive has weakened after the previous rally [3]. - The overall trend of urea is bearish, and attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and exports [4][5]. - Copper prices are oscillating in a wide range. With terminal demand support and supply shortage expectations, the amplitude is limited, and the progress of copper tariffs should be monitored [9][10]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded but still face downward pressure due to factors such as supply pressure and trade war concerns [11][13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it gradually enters the peak season [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as high inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [15][16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term because of high inventory and slow new order follow - up [17]. - PVC is in a weak oscillation state as the demand has not improved substantially and the inventory pressure is large [18][19]. - The negative feedback of lithium carbonate continues. Although there may be a technical rebound in the short - term, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For coking coal, short - term rebound signs appear, but the long - term bearish trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to reduce short positions and wait and see [21][22]. - Rebar prices may decline if demand does not improve substantially, as the "supply - demand double - weak, insufficient cost support" pattern remains unchanged [23]. - Hot - rolled coil prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of trend - based decline after the sentiment fades [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on June 5, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal and Shanghai tin rose more than 1%, while alumina and urea fell nearly 3% [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:26, CSI 1000 2506, CSI 500 2506, and Shanghai gold 2508 had capital inflows, while crude oil 2507, lithium carbonate 2507, and apple 2510 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated, with a closing increase of 0.68%. The estimated soybean planting area in the US is 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year. The domestic soybean inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week and 20.45% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 44.03% week - on - week but decreased by 65.19% year - on - year [3]. 3.2.2 Urea - Urea prices opened low and dropped nearly 3% during the day. The supply side has a daily output of over 200,000 tons, and the demand side is in the wheat harvest stage with sporadic agricultural demand and a decline in the compound fertilizer factory's operating rate [4][5]. 3.2.3 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and was under pressure. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not weakened. The demand is supported by good domestic PMI data and strong off - season demand resilience. Copper prices are oscillating, and the progress of copper tariffs should be monitored [9][10]. 3.2.4 Crude Oil - In June, crude oil prices rebounded due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and supply disruptions. However, supply pressure remains high, and there is still downward pressure on prices [11][13]. 3.2.5 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7%, and the expected output in June increased. The downstream operating rate decreased, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14]. 3.2.6 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased to 50.29%. The enterprise operating rate increased to about 84%, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. 3.2.7 Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased to about 84%, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. The inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2.8 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased to 78.19%, and the downstream operating rate is low. The inventory is still high, and it is in a weak oscillation state [18][19]. 3.2.9 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are close to the bottom, but the supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is slow. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.2.10 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded due to news, but the supply is loose, and the long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to reduce short positions and wait and see [21][22]. 3.2.11 Rebar - The demand for rebar is in the off - season, and the supply pressure is not relieved. The cost support is insufficient, and there is a risk of price decline [23]. 3.2.12 Hot - rolled Coil - The supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory may start to accumulate. Prices lack upward momentum and are at risk of decline [25].
冠通每日交易策略-20250604
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 11:06
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 6 月 04 日 热点品种 PVC: 上游电石价格多数地区稳定。目前供应端,PVC 开工率环比增加 2.00 个百分点 至 78.19%,PVC 开工率有所增加,仍处于近年同期偏高水平。上周 PVC 下游开工 略有回落,同比往年仍偏低,采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口,印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行,中国台湾台塑 6 月份报价上调 10-20 美元/吨,出口高价成交受阻,但低价出口交付较好。另 外,印度即将迎来雨季或限制未来中国 PVC 出口。上周社会库存继续下降,只是 目前仍偏高,库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-4 月份,房地产数据略有改善,只是 同比仍是负数,且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大,竣工面积同比增速进一步 下降。30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升,但仍是历年同期偏低水 平,房地产改善仍需时间。春检过半,据统计春检规模不及去年同期,需求未实 质性改善之前 PVC ...
沥青策略:高开震荡
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 10:48
【冠通研究】 沥青:高开震荡 制作日期:2025年6月4日 【策略分析】 单边观望/做多沥青09-12价差 供应端,上周沥青开工率环比回落3.1个百分点至27.7%,较去年同期高了2.2个百分点,沥青开 工率继续回落,降至近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据,6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨,环比增 加6.5万吨,增幅为5.2%,同比增加37万吨,增幅为39.3%。上周沥青下游各行业开工率多数下降,其 中道路沥青开工环比下降5个百分点至26%,降至近年同期最低水平,受到资金制约。上周华南地区 个别炼厂停发,出货量减少较多,全国出货量环比减少5.60%至25.86万吨,处于中性偏低位。沥青炼 厂库存存货比上周环比继续回落,仍处于近年来同期的最低位,南方仍有降雨间歇影响,资金仍受 制约,沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。近期美国持续加大对伊朗原油出口的制裁,不过伊朗核协议或将 签署。只是近日伊朗表示保留铀浓缩的能力,伊朗核协议签署不如此前乐观。关注美国对伊朗原油 的制裁是否会放松。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解,只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去,原油波动较 大,美国特朗普政府向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证,允许其继续留在委内瑞拉,对 ...
冠通每日交易策略-20250603
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 13:37
制作日期:2025 年 6 月 3 日 热点品种 端午节期间,国际原油价格因 OPEC+增产幅度未超预期、加拿大野火影响原油生 产及乌克兰炸毁俄罗斯境内多架战略轰炸机而反弹。欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油 产量提高 41.1 万桶/日,为连续第三个月增产,此次增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅 度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一次会议,决定 8 月产量政策。 加拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产。雪佛龙 此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日向雪佛 龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证,允许其继续留在委内瑞拉,对设备进行最低限度 的维护,但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油,这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业的制裁 升级,其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪佛龙占 委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞拉石油 行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制裁大幅 削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口,不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议和俄乌 停火的谈判手段。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不大,而 ...
【财经分析】美国再提高钢铝关税对澳大利亚影响如何?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-01 11:52
新华财经悉尼6月1日电(记者李晓渝)美国总统特朗普5月30日在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称,6 月4日起,将把钢铁和铝的进口关税从25%提高至50%。澳大利亚媒体指出,这一举措可能影响澳大利 亚相关行业共10万个就业岗位,以及约4.14亿澳元的产品出口。实际上,该举措对澳大利亚经济短期内 的直接影响可能并不大,但必然会影响其经济前景。 澳大利亚钢铁行业和铝业规模都相对较小。资料显示,澳钢铁行业共有四家主要炼钢厂,年成品钢材产 量大约是530万吨。澳铝业也有四家主要铝冶炼厂在运营,2024年原铝金属产量约为158万吨,其中150 万吨用于出口。 新南威尔士大学法学教授丽莎·图希此前表示,澳大利亚钢铁行业和铝业及其上下游行业都将面临如何 应对全球市场不确定性的挑战。该国有大约1.2万家企业向美国出口,主要对美出口产品包括金融服 务、黄金、肉类、运输服务和疫苗等。现在这些企业都要担心美国关税是否会扩大到这些品类。 悉尼大学经济学院国际贸易专家弗拉基米尔·铁亚热利尼科夫(Valdimir Tyazhelnikov)指出,澳大利亚 面临的最大风险是潜在的全球贸易战可能会扰乱供应链,削弱东亚和东南亚的制造业活动,进而 ...
冠通每日交易策略-20250530
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 12:14
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 5 月 30 日 热点品种 碳酸锂: 今日碳酸锂开盘后高位震荡,收盘价 59883.02 元/吨,涨幅 1.35%。SMM 电池级 碳酸锂指数价格 60901 元/吨,环比上一工作日下跌 332 元/吨;电池级碳酸锂 5.94-6.2 万元/吨,均价 6.07 万元/吨,环比上一工作日下跌 200 元/吨;工业 级碳酸锂 5.86-5.96 万元/吨,均价 5.91 万元/吨,环比上一工作日下跌 200 元 /吨,碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下移。供给端短期碳酸锂供需维持过剩格局 延续,五月份天气转暖盐湖端开工率将季节性提高,预计国内盐湖产量将逐步抬 升,中期供应减弱,据 Mysteel,近期江西某锂盐企业预计 6 月停产检修 1 个厂, 检修时长 4 个月,预计每月影响碳酸锂月产量约 1500 吨,供给预计下降,缓解 供应压力。需求端中美关税政策变化,在关税豁免 90 天内,利好储能电池出口 预期,缓冲碳酸锂需求疲软的情况,但难以改变产业现状。库存端即 ...
农民工逆袭照进现实!62岁“闽商”靠卖轮胎干出一个IPO
创业家· 2025-05-30 10:04
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the success story of Hai'an Rubber, founded by Zhu Hui, who transitioned from a tire repairman to the CEO of a company with annual revenue of 2.3 billion yuan and net profit of nearly 700 million yuan, positioning it as the third-largest global manufacturer of all-steel giant tires [3][9][19]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hai'an Rubber specializes in the production of all-steel giant tires used in heavy machinery and mining vehicles, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas sales [7][9]. - The company has achieved impressive revenue growth, with projections showing an increase from 1.5 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.3 billion yuan in 2024, and net profit rising from 354 million yuan to 679 million yuan during the same period [9][19]. - Hai'an Rubber's primary revenue source is the sale of all-steel giant tires, which accounted for approximately 74.01% of total revenue in 2024, while the tire operation management business contributed 25.99% [6][8]. Group 2: Market Position and Clientele - Hai'an Rubber is recognized as the third-largest player in the all-steel giant tire market, following Michelin and Bridgestone, and is capable of producing a full range of giant tire specifications [9][19]. - The company has established strong relationships with major clients such as Zijin Mining and XCMG, with revenue from the top five clients increasing from 655 million yuan to 1.29 billion yuan, representing 57.58% of total revenue by 2024 [9][10]. - A notable aspect of Hai'an Rubber's business model is the dual role of some clients as both shareholders and customers, which has raised questions about potential conflicts of interest [10][14]. Group 3: Founder’s Journey and Financials - Zhu Hui, the founder of Hai'an Rubber, started his career as a tire repairman and founded the company in 2005 after returning to his hometown, marking a significant shift towards manufacturing giant tires [16][17]. - Zhu has successfully monetized his stake in the company, cashing out over 350 million yuan through equity transfers and dividends between 2020 and 2022 [18][19]. - The company is currently preparing for an IPO, aiming to raise 2.952 billion yuan, with over 80% of the funds allocated for expanding production capacity [19].
冠通每日交易策略-20250529
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 11:40
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 5 月 29 日 热点品种 原油: 雪佛龙此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日 向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证,允许其继续留在委内瑞拉,对设备进行最 低限度的维护,但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油,这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业 的制裁升级,其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪 佛龙占委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞 拉石油行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制 裁大幅削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口,不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议 和俄乌停火的谈判手段。5 月 28 日第 39 届 OPEC+部长级会议宣布维持 25-26 年 产量基线不变,并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定 2027 年产量基线,5 月 31 日还将举行 OPEC+自愿减产 8 国会议,届时可能达成 7 月增产 41.1 万桶/日的协 议。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不 ...