Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The copper market is affected by tariff issues and economic uncertainties, with the potential for price fluctuations. The price of copper is supported by the decline of the US dollar index [3]. - The price of coking coal is expected to be weak due to the high - production expectation on the supply side and the off - season consumption on the demand side [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate as the market is in a loose state and the upward movement of the futures price lacks fundamental support [10]. - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, and the supply and demand of crude oil have improved marginally. It is recommended to cautiously operate and lightly buy put options on crude oil [11][12]. - The price of asphalt is recommended to be cautiously operated, and it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices as it is gradually entering the peak season [13]. - The price of PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as new production capacity, slow downstream recovery, and the decline of crude oil prices [14][15]. - The price of plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level because of factors including new production capacity, the off - season of downstream demand, and the decline of crude oil prices [16]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short at high prices due to factors such as the decline of demand and the fall of coal prices [17][18]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas [19]. - The price of soybean oil is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the growth period and the US biodiesel policy [20][21]. - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term under the suppression of weak demand [22][24]. - The price of hot - rolled coil may be under pressure if the billet export policy is restricted and the production capacity is released [25]. - The price of urea is expected to consolidate, waiting for new market drivers, with weak fundamentals and some support from export and the end of summer fertilizer sales [26][27]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market trend**: Opened low and closed high with a late - session rally [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is still increasing, the global copper inventory is being depleted at different speeds, and the demand is weak except for low - price purchases. The tariff issue may cause price fluctuations, and the decline of the US dollar index supports the price [3]. Coking Coal - **Market trend**: Opened low, fluctuated under pressure, and closed down more than 3% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from coke enterprises is low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market trend**: Opened high, closed low, and rallied at the end [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of spodumene is rising, the domestic production is increasing, the import is weakening, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is in a loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate [10]. Crude Oil - **Market trend**: Affected by geopolitical events [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has cooled down, the supply and demand have improved marginally, and attention should be paid to the OPEC + meeting. It is recommended to cautiously operate [11][12]. Asphalt - **Market trend**: Followed the decline of crude oil [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is restricted, and the basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, the supply has new production capacity and some maintenance, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [14][15]. Plastic - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The start - up rate has increased, the downstream demand is in the off - season, the inventory pressure is high, and the price of crude oil has declined [16]. PVC - **Market trend**: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply start - up rate has decreased, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price of coal has declined. It is recommended to go short at high prices [17][18]. Soybean Meal - **Market trend**: Oscillated slightly with a 0.10% increase [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean data is neutral to slightly bearish, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, the inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [19]. Soybean Oil - **Market trend**: Oscillated with a 0.03% decrease [20][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean data has limited impact, the domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [20][21]. Rebar - **Market trend**: Rose first and then fell [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has increased, the inventory depletion has slowed down, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [22][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market trend**: Rose slightly after facing resistance [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is weak, the cost support is weakening, and the export sustainability is questionable. The price may be under pressure [25]. Urea - **Market trend**: Opened low, was under pressure during the session, and rallied at the end to turn positive [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply has little change, the demand is weakening, the inventory is being depleted due to export, and the price is expected to consolidate [26][27].

Group 1 - The core issue of the global trade war is the impending end of the 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" announced by the Trump administration, which is set to expire on July 9 [3] - China's Ministry of Commerce has issued a strong warning against any party sacrificing Chinese interests for trade negotiations, indicating a firm stance in the ongoing discussions [3][5] - The focus of the current global trade situation is shifting towards geopolitical dynamics rather than just tariff negotiations, as the U.S. seeks to form an "anti-China alliance" with other countries [5] Group 2 - The European Union is experiencing internal divisions, with Germany proposing to accept a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" from the U.S., which raises questions about its role as the EU's economic engine [6][8] - French President Macron has taken a hardline stance, insisting on either zero tariffs or a trade war, reflecting the significant stakes for French agricultural exports [8] - The UK has already moved forward with a temporary agreement with the U.S., raising concerns about the implications and hidden clauses within this deal [8] Group 3 - Japan has surprisingly taken a strong position against the U.S. regarding tariffs, with its government demanding either zero tariffs or no negotiations, despite its significant automotive exports to the U.S. [9][11] - Japan is reportedly adjusting its strategy by leveraging its rare earth resources to negotiate for exemptions on automotive tariffs, indicating a complex trade maneuvering [11] - India is rapidly advancing negotiations with the U.S., potentially at the risk of becoming a tool for U.S. interests in Asia, which could have significant implications for the global trade landscape [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including expectations of an oscillating adjustment for soybean meal futures, a decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks for crude oil with a suggestion to cautiously buy bearish options, and a slow rise in copper prices with opportunities to go long at low prices. It also provides trend analyses and operation suggestions for other varieties such as asphalt, PP, and more [3][5][10]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 09 - contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing with a 0.78% increase. In the US, the proportion of soybean crops in drought - affected areas decreased, and favorable weather is expected. In China, the soybean crushing volume reached a record high last week, and the expected volume this week remains high. The market is supported by increased import costs but has limited upward momentum, likely to oscillate [3]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention and subsequent cease - fire between Iran and Israel, Middle - East geopolitical risks have significantly decreased, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions. The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. With seasonal demand and supply - demand improvements, it is recommended to cautiously buy bearish options [5]. Copper - The copper market is currently oscillating strongly. Fed rate - cut uncertainty supports non - ferrous metals. China's copper production is high but may decline later. Demand has weakened marginally but remains resilient. Global inventories are decreasing, and copper prices are expected to rise slowly in oscillations [10]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high, oscillated, and closed lower. Supply is sufficient, and the price is approaching the cost line. Downstream demand is mainly for essential needs, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply is increasing, and downstream demand is mixed. The Middle - East geopolitical risk has decreased, and the price has fallen. The basis has strengthened. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13][15]. PP - PP downstream and enterprise operating rates are low. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure is high. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic operating rates have increased, but downstream demand is weak. New capacity has been added, and inventory pressure remains. With the decline in Middle - East geopolitical risks and crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply and demand are both weak. Inventory is high, and the market is affected by factors such as the Indian policy and coal prices. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 09 - contract oscillated after a slight decline. The US soybean weather is favorable, and China's soybean crushing volume is high. The market lacks external guidance and is expected to oscillate within a range [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. The market is expected to return to a loose state, and short - selling opportunities at high prices should be watched [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose slightly. Supply has decreased, and demand is seasonally weak. Macro - level expectations provide support, but continuous price increases face pressure, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices oscillated slightly higher. Supply is stable, and demand is seasonally weak but supported by macro - level expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Inventory has decreased due to port shipments. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 23 日 热点品种 主 品主力 涨跌幅 增 焦煤： 焦煤今日低开低走，日内震荡上行，现货方面，山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 940 元/吨，较上个交易日持平；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 718/吨，较上个交易日+18 元/吨。数据来看，蒙煤近期通关数量有减缩，但国内煤矿多发复产，煤炭产量 有所增加，矿山日产及洗煤厂日产均回升，连同焦煤总体库存均有累库，需求方 面，焦炭第四轮提降仍在继续，关注提降落地情况，本期焦企利润亏损有减少， 但后续若四轮提降落地，利润负值可能扩大，目前焦炭库存高位，价格博弈后， 对焦煤拿货量或减少，但钢厂盈利增加，铁水产量回升，目前终端进入淡季，焦 煤基本面维持宽松，暂无大幅上涨预期，关注 820 附近阻力位能否有效突破，下 方关注 780 附近支撑。 尿素： 今日盘面低开高走日内呈下跌趋势，周末价格稳中下降，工厂多执行前期待发为 主，新单成交不畅。上周低位反弹后，周五盘面开启回调。基本面来看，日产本 周预计继续上升，上游工厂 ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：冲高回落 制作日期：2025年6月20日 【策略分析】 单边观望/逢低做多沥青09-12价差 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.1个百分点至30.4%，较去年同期高了4.7个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，处于近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨，环 比增加6.5万吨，增幅为5.2%，同比增加37万吨，增幅为39.3%。本周沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现， 其中道路沥青开工环比下降3个百分点至22.6%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金制约。本周山 东地区个别炼厂复产，加之原油价格上涨带动交投气氛，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加 5.99%至28.83万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续回落，仍处于近年来同期的最 低位，南方仍有降雨间歇影响，资金仍受制约，北方需求表现尚可。美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局，会 谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和伊朗互相袭击，并将袭击目标扩大至能 源设施，中东地缘风险急剧升温。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去， 美国特朗普政府向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产 ...

面对不可预测的美国政策以及全球贸易战带来的风险，交易员纷纷避开美元，欧元随之在全球外汇期权 市场中扮演起了更重要的角色。对比美国存管信托及清算公司(DTCC)今年头五个月与2024年最后五个 月的数据，可以看到约15%-30%与美元兑主要货币挂钩的合约已变成欧元。此外，还有迹象表明，欧元 正被用作避险资产（传统上由美元扮演的角色），以及用于押注大幅波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Thailand is facing a new political crisis that threatens its economy, which is already on the brink of a technical recession, necessitating a potential interest rate cut by the central bank to stabilize the situation [1] Economic Situation - Thailand's economy is at risk due to ongoing political instability and the impact of the global trade war [1] - The country experienced lower economic growth last year compared to neighboring countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore [1] Political Context - The current Prime Minister, Prayut Chan-o-cha, is facing internal divisions within the ruling coalition, which could lead to legislative stagnation and affect trade negotiations with the United States [1] - The previous Prime Minister was ousted by a court ruling, and her father was overthrown in a military coup, highlighting the political volatility [1] Recommendations - Mizuho Bank's macro research head for Asia, Vishnu Varathan, suggests that the Bank of Thailand may need to accelerate interest rate cuts by 50 to 75 basis points to boost economic confidence [1] - There is an urgent need for additional stimulus measures due to weakened business confidence and fragile market sentiment [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for multiple futures varieties, including crude oil, asphalt, PVC, L&PP, copper, and urea, based on their supply - demand situations, market sentiment, and geopolitical factors [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Trading Logic**: OPEC+ increased production, but growth was below expectations. Supply pressure eased due to wildfires in Canada, Middle - East geopolitical risks, and a decline in US drilling. Demand improved with better - than - expected US economic data and the start of the traditional travel season. However, there are concerns about OPEC+ future production increases and trade - war impacts on demand [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: The price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Lightly buy crude oil call options [3]. Asphalt - **Trading Logic**: Supply increased as the asphalt开工率 rose. Demand was mixed, with road asphalt开工率 down. Inventory was low. Geopolitical factors and trade - war concerns affected the market. As it enters the peak season, the price is expected to be in high - level oscillation [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: High - level oscillation [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread [3]. PVC - **Trading Logic**: Supply was high as the开工率 was relatively high. Demand was weak, with exports affected by Indian policies and the real - estate market still in a slow - recovery phase. Inventory was high. However, positive commodity sentiment from geopolitical factors and trade talks may lead to a small rebound [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: Small rebound [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. L&PP - **Trading Logic**: The开工率 of plastics and PP was relatively high. Downstream开工率 decreased slightly. Inventory was high. Positive commodity sentiment may lead to a small rebound [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: Small rebound [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. Copper - **Trading Logic**: Macro - uncertainties came from geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade talks. Supply was stable, while demand weakened, with consumption down and downstream拿货积极性 low. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts boosted bullish sentiment, but the price remained in an oscillation range [6]. - **Multi - Short View**: Range - bound fluctuation [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long at low prices within the range [6]. Urea - **Trading Logic**: Supply was high with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand was weak, with agricultural demand yet to fully start and industrial demand weak. Inventory was under pressure. The price rebounded due to better weekend sales, but the rebound height is limited [9]. - **Multi - Short View**: Low - level rebound with limited upside [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [9].

加拿大央行会议纪要：官员们一致认为，发生一场旷日持久、严重的全球贸易战的可能性已经降低。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of unilateral waiting and going long on the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread. However, due to the large fluctuations of crude oil affected by geopolitical risks, cautious operation is required [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and continued to rise, being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years. In June, local refineries are expected to produce 1.309 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons (5.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons (39.3%) [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt remained flat at 25.6% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 7.98% week - on - week to 272,000 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The demand in the north performed well, while the south was still affected by intermittent rainfall and funds were still restricted [1]. - Market environment: The negotiation on the US - Iran nuclear agreement has reached a deadlock and has been indefinitely suspended. The US has increased sanctions on Iran, and Israel and Iran have attacked each other, expanding the targets to energy facilities, leading to a sharp increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The panic about the global trade war has eased, but the shadow of the global trade war has not completely dissipated. The Trump administration has issued a simplified license to Chevron, allowing it to stay in Venezuela for minimal equipment maintenance but banning oil production. Attention should be paid to the changes in Venezuela's crude oil exports. Recently, asphalt has followed crude oil to fluctuate strongly, but crude oil fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical risks [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.03% to 3,644 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,593 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,655 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6,817 to 259,759 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 156 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou resumed production intermittently, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, continuing to rise and being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate declined slightly compared with that from January to March 2025, still being negative. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.9%, a slight decline from - 0.2% from January to March 2025. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.8%, the same as that from January to March 2025 [4]. - Fiscal policy: The government work report proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. This year, the deficit ratio is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year. The general public budget expenditure scale is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from the previous year. It is planned to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, and special treasury bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of large state - owned commercial banks. It is planned to arrange local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year. The total newly - added government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 13, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.6% compared with the week of June 6, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].