据读创客户端，深圳一位私募基金高管分析称，短期看，市场对于年报和关税利空的消化已经相当充 分，港股目前整体估值较低，配置性价比优势凸显，叠加国内稳增长政策持续发力与海外流动性扰动趋 缓的双重支撑，预计5月港股有望迎来一波反弹，可重点关注科网股。 银河证券认为，随着美国所谓"对等关税"政策影响渐弱，投资者风险偏好逐步回升。积极的财政政策和 适度宽松的货币政策，有望带动港股盈利稳中有升。当前港股估值处于历史中低水平，中长期投资价值 较高。配置上，短期内关注受益于扩大内需政策的消费板块、自主可控程度提升的科技板块、贸易依赖 度低及股息率高的板块。 中金公司建议，行业配置遵循三大主线：具备自主可控叙事的互联网科技龙头，可与高股息资产形成攻 守平衡；政策敏感型的内需复苏板块，关注特别国债等财政工具释放信号；出口敞口较大的家电、电子 设备等板块，需密切跟踪6月关税复审窗口期动向。 恒生指数高开0.32%，恒生科技指数跌0.02%。友邦保险、万洲国际均涨超3%，周大福涨超2.3%，网易 跌近2%。 关于港股后市 交银国际研报表示，经历调整后，港股后续走势具备韧性，主要得益于多方面支持，包括：中国央行等 部门积极表态给予资本 ...

投资建议 白酒板块：本周年季报业绩期收官，整体而言：白酒板块 24 年年报及 25 年一季报的兑现度均较为不错，绝大多数酒 企的表观业绩高度契合市场预期。在当下白酒行业景气度仍有所承压的背景下，一方面市场期待酒企能发挥其品牌/ 渠道/组织等优越性，积极紧抓消费需求、拼抢巩固自身市场份额；另一方面，市场亦深知欲速则不达，只有基本面 底盘企稳、酒企方能伴随景气上行而厚积薄发。因此，业绩的平稳兑现已是行业磨底期酒企交出的不错答卷。 当下已至白酒消费淡季，酒企的营销重心也逐步倾斜至流通渠道稳价盘、团购商务做客情、宴席聚饮抢需求。从目前 的动销反馈来看，宴席场景动销普遍反馈可圈可点、部分区域因民俗因素致使今年宴席有所回补，但团购商务、聚饮 动销仍较承压。考虑到春糖后外部贸易环境等不确定性进一步提升，我们预计短期白酒行业动销或仍处于小幅回落的 磨底状态，拐点仍待促内需、顺周期相关政策落地后从需求端曳引。 目前我们维持行业景气度仍处于下行趋缓阶段的判断，类似上一轮周期中 14 年下半年至 15 年，该时期行业景气度不 再断崖式回落、尤其淡季动销绝对量占比相对较低，但需求侧仍缺乏足够强的拉力。考虑产业层面已处于磨底阶段， 白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has entered an unprecedented adjustment period since the end of 2021, with significant price declines and increasing inventory levels, prompting various government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and ensuring economic stability [1][3][10]. Market Conditions - By March 2023, average housing prices had dropped by 30% from historical highs, with some areas experiencing declines of up to 60% [1]. - The total unsold residential property area reached 6.7 trillion square meters by the end of 2023, projected to rise to 7.5 trillion by the end of 2024 and 7.8 trillion by March 2025, indicating severe inventory pressure [3]. Government Policies - Various measures have been implemented to stimulate the market, including lifting purchase restrictions in most cities, increasing public housing loan limits, and reducing mortgage interest rates from over 5% to around 3% [3]. - Tax reductions on deed tax and value-added tax were also introduced to alleviate the burden on homebuyers [3]. Economic Implications - The real estate sector is a pillar of the economy, influencing over 50 related industries, including construction materials and furniture, and its stagnation could severely impact local GDP growth [7]. - The real estate industry employs over 13 million people directly, with millions more in related sectors, highlighting the potential employment crisis if the market does not recover [7][8]. Fiscal Dependency - Land transfer fees have become a crucial part of local government finances, accounting for 50% of local fiscal revenue in 2024, with real estate-related taxes making up 35% [10]. - A significant portion of public service funding relies on these revenues, and a continued downturn in the real estate market could lead to reduced public services and increased financial strain on local governments [10]. Long-term Goals - The overarching aim of the government’s intervention in the real estate market is not just to influence short-term price fluctuations but to ensure social stability and facilitate a transition towards a more sustainable economic model focused on high-end manufacturing and technology [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor industry is showing a stable recovery with major companies like Moutai setting a 9% revenue growth target, Wuliangye aligning with macro indicators, and Luzhou Laojiao emphasizing steady growth. The supply-side pressure in the industry has significantly eased, and channel feedback is expected to improve [1][3]. - Moutai and Wuliangye have reported double-digit growth, slightly exceeding market expectations, while Luzhou Laojiao's cash flow performance is better than its apparent data [3]. Beer Industry - The beer sector performed well in Q1 2025, with small breweries like Zhujiang and Yanjing showing outstanding results. Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer met expectations, and structural improvements are noted despite pressure on ton prices [4][5]. Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to trend towards health and functionality, with Dongpeng Beverage showing high growth and new products like health water from Lululemon gaining attention. Nongfu Spring is also highlighted as a company to watch [6]. Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is experiencing supply-side adjustments, with Yili's Q1 report showing positive revenue growth. The improvement in demand is expected to resonate with the raw milk cycle, while Mengniu is noted for its defensive attributes [7]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is exhibiting a new consumption growth trend, with companies like Weilong and Yuyou revising their forecasts upward. Yuyou has entered new channels, and Ganyuan's overseas market prospects for Q2 are promising [8]. Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is showing a trend of low performance followed by high recovery, particularly in sports apparel. Anta Sports is effectively managing multiple brands, while home textile companies like Luolai and Mercury Home Textile are seen as defensive investments [11][12]. Key Recommendations - **Liquor**: Recommended stocks include Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Fenjiu and Wuliangye [10]. - **Beer**: Focus on Qingdao Beer and its strong dividend yield [5]. - **Dairy**: Yili and Mengniu are highlighted as key players [10]. - **Beverages**: Nongfu Spring and Lululemon are recommended [10]. - **Snacks**: Weilong, Yuyou, and Ganyuan are noted for their growth potential [10]. - **Textiles**: Anta Sports and home textile brands like Luolai are recommended for their defensive qualities [11][12]. Additional Insights - The pig farming sector is currently valued highly, with pig prices remaining elevated, but the breeding sector's outlook is cautious due to limited capacity recovery. Key companies to watch include Muyuan, Shennong Group, and Dekang [2][20]. - The poultry industry, particularly yellow feathered chickens, is facing challenges with prices down from last year, but companies like Lihua and Wens continue to expand [21]. - The retail sector is experiencing rapid growth, especially in the snack segment, with companies like Liangpinpuzi expected to open numerous new stores [33][34]. - The home appliance industry is focusing on tariff adjustments and new consumption trends, with companies like Vanward Electric and TCL Electronics showing strong performance [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the textile and apparel industry, highlighting potential recovery opportunities due to evolving tariff policies and domestic demand [5][9]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a valuation recovery as the peak of risk aversion related to tariff policies has passed, with major brands maintaining order volumes and shipment schedules [5][9]. - The brand sector is poised for a valuation recovery driven by improved consumer sentiment and policy support, particularly in discretionary spending categories like apparel [5][9]. Industry Data Tracking - The Cotlook A index and China cotton price index decreased by 1.3% and 4.2% respectively, while wool prices fell by 4.3% [27]. - In March 2025, Vietnam's textile and apparel exports increased by 14.77% year-on-year, with footwear exports rising by 15.77% [31][33]. - Retail sales in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4% in the first two months of 2025, with notable increases in categories such as clothing and home appliances [24][25]. Company Dynamics - Anta Sports reported a double-digit revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in sales from its various brands [3]. - Huali Group's revenue for 2024 reached 24 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.35% year-on-year increase, driven by both returning and new customers [3]. - Taiping Bird's Q1 2025 revenue declined by 7% year-on-year, but the company is expected to benefit from strategic adjustments and improved gross margins [3]. Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.72% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [6][14]. - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with notable gains from companies like Wan Shili and Tai Mu Shi, while companies like Kai Run and Mu Gao Di faced significant declines [21][22].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump has exceeded expectations, reinforcing the logic of domestic demand recovery. The focus is on infrastructure and key strategic industries like coal chemical investments, which are expected to receive policy support [2][21] - The construction index rose by 0.13% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.57 percentage points, with significant gains in small and mid-cap transformation stocks [1][31] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in local government bond issuance, indicating potential for local investment release despite external demand pressures [4][21] Summary by Sections Section 1: Tariff Impact and Domestic Demand - Trump's new tariffs, including a 10% baseline tariff and higher rates for major trade deficit countries, are expected to suppress overseas and manufacturing investments while boosting domestic demand [2][14] - The previous trade friction period saw a decline in manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with real estate becoming a key contributor to economic stability [3][21] Section 2: Market Performance - The construction index's performance this week was driven by sectors such as professional engineering and building design, with notable stock gains from companies like Shanshui Bide and Zhongyan Dadi [1][31] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure-related stocks, particularly in high-growth regions like Tibet and Xinjiang, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [21][28] - Coal chemical projects are expected to see significant investment, with recommendations for companies like Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical [28] - Companies with production layouts in North America or Mexico are likely to benefit, with recommendations including China Jushi and Puyang Refractories [28] Section 4: Fiscal Policy and Investment Opportunities - The first quarter of 2025 saw local government bond issuance reach approximately 2.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 80%, indicating a strong fiscal push for infrastructure investment [4][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural and regional characteristics in infrastructure investment, particularly in water conservancy and transportation sectors [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing the importance of smart technology, AI, and robotics as key themes for the year, with a focus on demand recovery as a significant support line throughout the year [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite short-term market adjustments, the automotive sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in smart technology and demand recovery. Key opportunities are identified in companies like Xiaopeng, BYD, Geely, and others, particularly in the context of intelligent vehicles and robotics [6][18]. - The report notes a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, reaching 56.54% in the latest week, indicating a strong market shift towards electric vehicles [6]. - The report also discusses the recent performance of the heavy truck market, which saw a year-on-year increase in sales, driven by demand for natural gas and electric heavy trucks [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates that the retail sales of passenger cars reached 357,900 units in the 10th week of 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 12.75%. Traditional energy vehicle sales were 155,500 units, down 18.01%, while new energy vehicle sales were 202,400 units, down 8.24% [6]. - The report mentions that the traditional and new energy raw material price indices have both increased recently, with traditional vehicle raw material prices rising by 0.8% week-on-week and 0.3% month-on-month, while new energy vehicle raw material prices rose by 2.6% week-on-week and 4.8% month-on-month [6]. Market Performance - The total transaction value of the automotive industry for the week was 639.8 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.21%. The automotive industry index closed at 7340.44 points, with a weekly increase of 0.75% [6][32]. - The report highlights that 172 stocks in the automotive sector rose, while 115 fell, with the largest gainers being Xinlong Health, Zhaofeng Shares, and Xiangyang Bearings, which saw increases of 61.0%, 44.2%, and 36.6%, respectively [39]. Company Highlights - Xiaopeng Motors launched the 2025 models G6 and G9, with significant upgrades and competitive pricing, indicating a strategic move to enhance market presence and drive sales growth [7][8]. - Li Auto reported a total revenue of 144.5 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, although net profit decreased by 31.9%, indicating a trend of increasing revenue but declining profitability [18][21]. - Leap Motor's B10 model pre-sale reached 31,688 units within 48 hours, showcasing strong market interest and demand for new energy vehicles [13][14]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the automotive sector will continue to see growth driven by technological advancements and a shift towards electric vehicles, with a focus on companies that are well-positioned in the smart vehicle and robotics space [6][18]. - The heavy truck market is expected to maintain its momentum, with increasing demand for new energy heavy trucks, which are projected to continue their growth trajectory into 2025 [27][28].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Gold Market**: Gold prices have recently surpassed $3,000 per ounce, driven by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and a decline in the U.S. stock market, which has suppressed market risk appetite and boosted safe-haven assets. This trend is also reflected in the rising prices of silver and copper, indicating a spread of risk aversion across the metal markets [2][3][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Dynamics**: The surge in gold prices is primarily influenced by short-term factors, with medium-term prices deviating from traditional pricing frameworks. Key support comes from central bank purchases and increased demand from the private sector in Asia, particularly China. The potential for U.S. tariffs on gold remains a critical factor to monitor [3][17]. - **Aviation Market Recovery**: The domestic aviation market is gradually recovering, with ticket prices rebounding post the Two Sessions meeting. The average ticket price excluding fuel surcharges has shown a year-on-year increase, while the overall flight supply is experiencing negative growth. The next 30 days of advance booking data indicate a 5% increase in ticket prices, suggesting a positive outlook for the aviation sector as a resilient consumer demand category [3][4]. - **Express Delivery Sector Growth**: The express delivery industry saw a 25% increase in package volume in January and February, exceeding initial market expectations. However, intense price competition in regions like Yiwu could impact profitability. Recommendations include focusing on Shentong and Zhongtong as key players [3][5]. - **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector is experiencing price declines due to lower-than-expected seasonal demand. However, certain products like pesticides and organic silicon still present investment opportunities due to fiscal stimulus and domestic demand recovery. Recommendations include Baofeng Energy and Guojing Chemical [3][7]. - **High-Speed PCB Industry**: The high-speed PCB industry is thriving, driven by AI computing needs. Companies like Ximing Life Science and Dongcai Technology are expected to see significant growth in orders and deliveries, marking this sector as a high-growth area [3][12]. - **Coal Industry Lifecycle**: The coal industry is entering a new lifecycle phase, with global coal inventories declining and geopolitical factors supporting demand. Chinese coal companies are enhancing their overseas market strategies, which is expected to boost profit contributions [3][21]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: The most recommended investment directions include domestic aviation and express delivery sectors, with specific focus on large Hong Kong airlines and small A-share airlines. In the express sector, Shentong, Zhongtong, JD Logistics, and SF Express are highlighted as key players [3][8]. - **Vitamin Market Dynamics**: The vitamin market is expected to see price increases due to low inventory levels and upcoming restocking by downstream customers. Companies like Zhejiang Medicine and Xinhecheng are recommended for their potential earnings growth with rising prices [10][11]. - **Governance Issues in Potash Industry**: The resolution of governance issues at Yara International has alleviated major risks, making it a favorable investment in the potash sector [9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends across various industries, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks based on the latest market dynamics.

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is currently in a central upward oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing the critical level of 3400 points, which has occurred four times since 2010. The sustainability of this upward momentum is a key focus for the market [2][8]. - Strong and sustained recovery or unexpectedly loose macro policies are crucial for the index to stabilize above 3400 points. The report emphasizes the need to observe the strength of domestic demand recovery in the future [2][8]. - The report notes that the current policy stance is clear, with expectations of continued high growth trends in credit and social financing. However, the low increase in household credit since the beginning of the year suggests that short-term real estate sales may still drag on domestic demand [2][8]. Group 2 - The report highlights a short-term balancing of market styles, with cyclical and consumer sectors outperforming technology, indicating a shift in market dynamics. The report suggests that the current market style is under pressure for equilibrium, with potential for a phase of basic expectation speculation as economic data verification approaches [9][20]. - The technology sector is experiencing a high-low switch in absolute returns, and unless there is a strong macro recovery environment, the probability of further index increases is low. Historical data shows that significant adjustments in the technology sector have only occurred during strong recovery phases [22][23]. - The report discusses the potential for the domestic demand and cyclical resource sectors to stabilize the index if the technology sector underperforms. It emphasizes the need for stronger counter-cyclical or supply-side policies to support this transition [24][30]. Group 3 - The report mentions that the construction sector, particularly excavator usage, shows signs of structural recovery, although overall market conditions remain to be verified. The sales figures for major real estate companies indicate a steady recovery, but a full rebound may still take time [27][29]. - The consumer sector is experiencing a recovery, but the overall revival may still depend on further policy signals. The report notes that while large consumer goods like automobiles and home appliances are showing signs of improvement, the white liquor prices have not yet seen a clear rebound [29][30]. - The report anticipates that the technology sector will remain a key focus for 2025, with upcoming industry conferences expected to catalyze market activity. The performance of AI applications and infrastructure is highlighted as a potential area for growth [30][32].

Core Viewpoint - The value bottom of the A-share market has formed despite external challenges such as tariff disputes and technological blockades, with opportunities for industrial upgrades, institutional reforms, and domestic demand recovery emerging in the current environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: A-share Market Value - The A-share market has shown structural trends driven by breakthroughs in the technology sector, with fields such as computers, machinery, automotive, and electronics leading the market [2]. - China's manufacturing value-added has ranked first globally for 15 consecutive years, with traditional industries like new energy expanding their technological barriers [2][3]. - The capital market is transitioning from a "financing-oriented" approach to an "investment win-win" model, supported by regulatory measures that protect investor interests [3]. Group 2: Long-term Research Strategy - The company emphasizes a long-term approach in its research business, focusing on cultivating internal values rather than recruiting well-known analysts from the industry [4][5]. - The success of the research team is attributed to the internal development of talent, with 25 teams recognized in the "2024 Securities Times Best Analyst Selection," achieving record scores [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Policy Insights - The chief economist highlighted that real estate and prices may still present significant discrepancies in expectations, indicating that counter-cyclical policies are increasingly necessary [6]. - The focus of these policies will significantly impact their execution and effectiveness, depending on whether the emphasis is on quantity or price [6].