以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴 实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 从特朗普胜选后，市场对美国经济的预期就在不断的发生变化。 一会认为会再通胀，一会认为会滞胀，一会认为会 衰退。 为什么市场的预期会变来变去呢？ 第三，商品价格大幅上涨，导致居民需求大幅下降，需求下降的速度更快，最终就会引发衰退。 也就是说， 商品价格上涨的幅度不同，导致的结果就不同。 一、市场预期的变化 在特朗普胜选前，市场根据民调已经预期特朗普会胜出了。 市场知道，一旦特朗普胜出，拜登政府就会突击式花钱，所以开始交易再通胀，2年美债利率上 升。 特朗普胜出后就再一个劲的鼓吹自己会创纪录式的加征关税，虽然市场认为特朗普会加税，但不 会有他说的那么离谱，于是开始交易滞胀，2年美债利率横着走。 特朗普上台后，出招一次比一次狠，这就让市场认为特朗普不是闹着玩的，于是开始交易衰退，2 年美债利率下跌，美股下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector and basic metals and processing [3]. Core Views - The report indicates that basic metals are likely to remain weak due to rising recession expectations in the U.S. following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, while precious metals, particularly gold, may have significant upward potential due to inflationary pressures and recession risks [1][14]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - The report highlights that the recent reciprocal tariffs have led to a significant drop in copper prices, with expectations of continued weakness in prices due to heightened recession fears in the U.S. [10][12]. - Copper prices fell sharply after the announcement of tariffs, with the cumulative tariff rate on China reaching 54% over 25 years, leading to a decline in domestic copper processing rates [10]. - Aluminum prices also showed a downward trend, with a reported price of 20,520 CNY/ton, down 1.44% week-on-week, and expectations of weak demand due to global recession concerns [11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a decline due to liquidity issues, despite not being directly affected by the new tariffs. The report notes that gold prices closed at 738.97 CNY/gram, reflecting a 4.23% increase week-on-week [13][24]. - The report maintains a positive outlook for gold, suggesting that inflationary disturbances and recession expectations will likely support its price in the future [14]. Lithium and Rare Earths - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply and declining demand, with the current price at 73,900 CNY/ton, down 0.54% week-on-week [16]. - Rare earth prices are also projected to fluctuate, with current prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 442,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase, but demand may weaken in the short term due to tariff impacts [15]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Shandong Gold (1787 HK) with a target price of 20.65 CNY and an "Overweight" rating [3].

Inflation Data Summary - In February, the overall and core CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.2% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month respectively[2] - Year-on-year, the overall CPI rose by 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, both down by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] CPI Trends - The core CPI reached a new low, dropping to levels not seen since April 2021, breaking below the previous range of 3.2-3.3%[3] - The CPI structure showed a divergence in inflation performance between goods and services, with food inflation rising by 0.2% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from January[4] Energy Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month in February, lower than the 1.1% increase in January, but still above the average of the past 12 months[6] - Gasoline and fuel prices fell by 0.9% in February, while electricity and natural gas prices rose by 1% and 2.5% respectively[6] Core Inflation Contributions - Core services contributed the most to the CPI growth, accounting for 0.15% of the increase, although this was a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous month[9] - Core goods contributed 0.04% to the CPI growth, while the energy component's contribution fell to 0.01%, down by 0.06 percentage points from January[9] Economic Outlook - The adjustment in U.S. stock markets is expected to weaken consumer demand, potentially reversing the "re-inflation" narrative[13] - Factors such as low savings rates and high stock valuations may lead to a decline in consumer spending in 2025, counteracting the effects of tariff and immigration policies aimed at re-inflation[13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [15][16]. Core Insights - The report discusses the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping from approximately 4.8% at the beginning of the year to around 4.3% [9][11]. - The "Trump trade" is experiencing a cooling off, similar to the trend observed in 2017, driven by slow implementation of tariff policies and weakening economic indicators in the U.S. [9][12]. - Positive carry is highlighted as a significant factor driving the strength of long-term bonds, providing a protective cushion in a volatile market environment [11][13]. Summary by Sections U.S. Treasury Yields - The report notes a rapid decline in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, which has decreased significantly despite rising inflation indicators [9][11]. - The market's focus on purchasing long-term U.S. Treasuries is emphasized as a safe trading strategy [11]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe suggests that the dollar's strength may not have reached its peak yet [12][14]. - The report also mentions that the market's reaction to clear directional signals often results in lower trading value, while positive carry trades can accumulate small victories into larger gains [13]. Currency and Interest Rate Outlook - The report suggests that the narrowing of the U.S.-Euro interest rate differential may lead to a stronger euro, indicating ongoing dynamics in the forex market [12][14]. - It is noted that the market's expectations for the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have remained stable despite the changes in U.S. rates [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a weekly increase of 7.08%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.52 percentage points [1][9]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical commodities, recommending industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as the steel sector [2][21]. - The government work report for 2025 sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and improve macroeconomic sentiment [2][21]. - Key price movements include a significant drop in alumina prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of electrolytic aluminum producers. The report anticipates a continued upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices due to a tight supply situation [2][22]. - The report highlights the potential for copper prices to rise amid "re-inflation" expectations, with a focus on the supply dynamics and the possibility of reduced production in the smelting sector [2][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at +7.08%. Industrial metals increased by 8.43%, precious metals by 6.48%, and energy metals by 4.58% [1][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Huayu Mining (+47.77%) and Xinweiling (+45.12%), while the worst performers were Liyuan Co. (-8.97%) and *ST Zhongrun (-8.88%) [1][9]. Metal Prices & Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $9,602.00 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week, while domestic prices were at ¥78,320.00 per ton, up 1.93% [16][27]. - Aluminum prices increased to $2,689.00 per ton on the LME, a rise of 3.26%, with domestic prices at ¥20,835.00 per ton, up 0.94% [25][27]. - Zinc prices also saw an increase, with LME prices at $2,882.00 per ton, up 3.00% [17][27]. Core Insights Update and Key Stock Tracking - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending investments in copper and aluminum due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and improving demand [2][22]. - The report notes that the price of strategic metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxide has stabilized, with a current price of ¥460,900.00 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.44% [53][54].