丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 降息和美联储独立性，哪个更重要？ ——2026 年 1 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] FOMC 会议对经济和就业的乐观态度、以及对关税通胀影响在今年年中消退的判断，意味着下 次降息时点或在 6 月会议上。较于降息，更应该关注美联储独立性的走向。特朗普意图通过鲍 威尔事件震慑新任主席，新任主席做"影子主席"的概率在增加，这意味着后续降息概率也在 提升。今年再度大幅降息或能推动美国经济超预期增长，但也为再通胀埋下隐患。于资产而言： 1）美联储独立性受损概率提升，进一步削弱美国资产吸引力，加大美元指数下行压力，黄金配 置价值再度凸显；2）降息预期增加，铜、铝等大宗商品以及新兴市场股市将进一步受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 降息和美联储独立性，哪个更重要？ 2 ...

1. Report Summary - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [2] - The strategy views and investment logics in the report are based on publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week. Closing price data is from last Friday, and weekly changes are compared with the previous Friday's closing price [2] 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Silver closed at 24965.00 with a 11.04% weekly increase; PTA at 5448.00 with an 8.57% increase; Gold at 1115.64 with a 7.74% increase; Ethylene glycol at 3997.00 with a 5.30% increase; Palm oil at 8910.00 with a 2.72% increase; Methanol at 2298.00 with a 2.64% increase; PVC at 4921.00 with a 2.46% increase; Aluminum at 24290.00 with a 1.53% increase; Polysilicon at 50720.00 with a 1.04% increase; Soybean meal at 2751.00 with a 0.88% increase; Corn at 2300.00 with a 0.83% increase; Crude oil at 441.90 with a 0.71% increase; Copper at 101340.00 with a 0.57% increase [3] - Rebar closed at 3142.00 with a - 0.66% change; Coking coal at 1157.00 with a - 1.20% change; Iron ore at 795.00 with a - 2.09% change; Live pigs at 11565.00 with a - 3.46% change; Glass at 1064.00 with a - 3.54% change [3] 2.2 A - shares - CSI 500 closed at 8590.17 with a 4.34% weekly increase; CSI 300 at 4702.50 with a - 0.62% change; SSE 50 at 3032.19 with a - 1.54% change [3] 2.3 Overseas Stock Markets - NASDAQ Composite closed at 23501.24 with a - 0.06% change; Nikkei 225 at 53846.87 with a - 0.17% change; S&P 500 at 6915.61 with a - 0.35% change; Hang Seng Index at 26749.51 with a - 0.36% change; FTSE 100 at 10143.44 with a - 0.90% change; France CAC40 at 8143.05 with a - 1.40% change [3] 2.4 Bonds - China's 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60 with a - 1.01bp change; 10 - year at 1.83 with a - 1.12bp change; 2 - year at 1.39 with a - 1.19bp change [3] 2.5 Foreign Exchange - Euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.18 with a 1.97% increase; US dollar central parity rate was 6.99 with a - 0.21% change; US dollar index was 97.51 with a - 1.88% change [3] 3. Commodity Views Summary 3.1 Macro - finance Sector 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Global liquidity is loose; Small and medium - cap indexes receive capital inflows; The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy; China's GDP in 2025 grew by 5% year - on - year [4] - Bearish logics: Regulators signal to cool market sentiment; Near - month contracts of stock index futures have a large premium; Market differentiation intensifies; Corporate profit recovery expectations are not strong [4] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [4] - Bullish logics: Risk - aversion sentiment rises; Domestic demand is insufficient; Allocation funds enter the market; The central bank maintains a loose liquidity environment [4] - Bearish logics: Concerns about long - term bond supply remain; The stock - bond seesaw effect may divert funds; The rebound of treasury bonds has partially realized positive factors; The "re - inflation" expectation has improved [4] 3.2 Energy Sector (Crude Oil) - Strategy views: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: US military deployment in the Middle East; Disruption at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield; Geopolitical events; Cold snap in Europe and America [5] - Bearish logics: Venezuela's export shift; Potential quick reversal of risk premium; High production from non - OPEC countries; High OECD oil inventories [5] 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector (Palm Oil) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - Bullish logics: India's peak consumption season; Higher crude oil prices; Decreased production in Malaysia; Reduced domestic port inventory [5] - Bearish logics: High inventory in Malaysia; High domestic inventory; Indonesia's suspension of the B50 plan; Disadvantages in substitution [5] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector (Aluminum) - Strategy views: 2 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Overseas supply disruptions; Capital inflows; Long - term demand expectations; Policy support [6] - Bearish logics: Rising domestic daily production; High prices suppressing demand; Seasonal consumption decline; Reduced speculative buying [6] 3.5 Chemical Industry Sector (PTA) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - Bullish logics: Capital inflows; Low inventory pressure of polyester products; Expected improvement in supply - demand and profit [6] - Bearish logics: Reduced production by polyester factories; High processing fees; Low profits of polyester products; Expected inventory build - up [6] 3.6 Precious Metals (Gold) - Strategy views: 3 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Geopolitical risks; Central bank gold purchases; Expectations of a dovish Fed pause; Potential capital inflow into ETFs [7] - Bearish logics: Strong US economy; Technical overbought pressure; Potential "hawkish pause" signal from the Fed [7] 3.7 Black Sector (Coking Coal) - Strategy views: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [7] - Bullish logics: Winter storage demand; Expected supply contraction; Import disruptions; Overall market sentiment [7] - Bearish logics: Fast import of Mongolian coal; Weak demand from steel enterprises; Declining blast furnace operating rate; Lack of new upward drivers [7]

各位朋友，收盘了。我是帮主郑重。如果你只盯着涨幅榜，会觉得今天是个大牛市——中国铝业涨停创 下16年新高，中国海油也续写历史，整个资源板块热火朝天。但如果你看一眼全市场，心可能就凉了半 截：超过3600只股票下跌，创业板翻绿，多数人手里拿的科技、医药股都在调整。这种"一花独放，百 花凋零"的极端行情，到底在演哪一出？是机会还是陷阱？帮主用二十年经验告诉你，这恰恰是行情进 入关键分水岭的典型特征，看懂它，才能决定明天是该冲锋还是该防守。 我们先说这朵"独放的花"——以有色金属为核心的资源股。中国铝业能走出16年新高，这绝不是游资炒 一把就走那么简单。它背后是三重坚硬的逻辑在支撑：第一，是全球"再通胀"和美元波动的宏观叙事， 资金在寻找实体资产的庇护；第二，是新能源、高端制造对铜、铝、稀土等金属的 "新需求故事" ，给 了传统周期行业新的成长想象；第三，也是最关键的一点，是它们之前被市场遗忘太久，估值躺在底 部，一旦逻辑被认同，就形成了巨大的 "估值修复"势能。这波行情，有根基。 但为什么"百花"会凋零呢？核心在于两个字："抽血"。现在的市场，不是一个增量资金汹涌而入的牛 市，而是一个存量甚至缩量博弈的战场。上午 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent breakthroughs in lithium extraction from salt lakes in China indicate a shift in the industry from "cost advantage" to "technology leadership," potentially leading to a full-chain upgrade from resource development to high-value utilization [1] Group 1: Macro Environment - The overall macro environment is favorable for the non-ferrous metals sector [3][12] - Multiple supportive factors are emerging for the non-ferrous metals sector due to the dual backdrop of global economic restructuring and domestic policy drivers [4][13] Group 2: Global Liquidity and Geopolitical Risks - Expectations for increased global liquidity are rising, with UBS predicting two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25% [5][14] - Heightened geopolitical risks at the start of 2026 are expected to increase market demand for safe-haven assets, benefiting gold prices and supporting demand for key strategic metals like copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earths [6][14] Group 3: Domestic Economic Stability - China's manufacturing PMI rose above the neutral line in December, indicating economic stabilization and a potential recovery in manufacturing sentiment [6][14] - Continued government investment and infrastructure improvements are anticipated, alongside constraints on corporate expansion due to "anti-involution" policies, which may sustain price increases in the non-ferrous metals sector [6][14] Group 4: National Strategy and Resource Security - In 2026, China will initiate a new round of mineral exploration strategies and crack down on illegal mining of strategic mineral resources, which is expected to strengthen the long-term stability of the industry [6][15] Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply-demand balance for various non-ferrous metals is expected to remain tight, supporting upward price trends [8][18] - Factors such as global monetary easing, geopolitical tensions, supply-side constraints, and steady demand are likely to drive the non-ferrous metals sector in 2026 [10][19] Group 6: Specific Metal Insights - Gold: China's official gold reserves have increased for 14 consecutive months, indicating a trend towards further accumulation by the central bank [19] - Silver: Supply remains tight while industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, continues to grow [19] - Copper: Long-term capital expenditure on copper mines is insufficient, leading to a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage [19] - Aluminum: High copper prices are accelerating the "aluminum substitution for copper" trend, with potential shortages in aluminum supply expected [19] - Lithium: Demand for lithium battery materials remains strong, with expectations for a supply-demand reversal in lithium carbonate prices [19] - Cobalt: Continued export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to maintain structural tightness in cobalt supply [19]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 27 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：风格逆转 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：资金小幅收敛，债市窄幅波动 4 | | 蛋白粕：产量维持高位 | 盘面仍有压力 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧 | 郑糖价格底部震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：中加菜籽贸易扰动，油脂震荡上涨 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏强，盘面冲高回落 7 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 现货继续下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 9 | | | 苹果：节前走货加速，春节备货积极性增加 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：情绪较为乐观 | 棉价有所支撑 11 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 13 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：消息面扰动叠加技术性调整 金银现"过山车"行情 16 ...

商品市场方面，全球市场在地缘政治摩擦加剧的冲击下剧烈震荡。以黄金、白银为代表的贵金属成为了市场的焦点，其强劲的避险需求直接驱动了价格的 飙升。原油市场方面，除地缘局势外，哈萨克斯坦一直难以恢复全球最大油田之一的产量及北美极端寒潮天气引发美国天然气史诗级暴涨，推动油价宽幅 震荡走高。 （数据来源：wind，日期截至2026年1月23日，指数过往业绩不预示其未来表现，投资需谨慎） 01 市场回顾 | | | 全球大类资产本周表现 (2026/1/19-2026/1/23) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球指数 | 涨跌幅 | A股领涨行业 | 涨跌幅 | 外汇 | 涨跌幅 | | 巴西IBOVESPA指数 | 8.53% | 建筑材料 | 9.23% | 澳元兑美元 | 3.19% | | 中证500 | 4.34% | 石油石化 | 7.71% | 欧元兑美元 | 1.97% | | 韩国综合指数 | 3.08% | 钢铁 | 7.31% | 美元兄港元 | 0.01% | | 科创50 | 2.62% | 基础化工 | 7.29% | 欧元兑 ...

Group 1 - The overall sentiment among sell-side strategies remains optimistic for the upcoming market, with a consensus on the interplay between performance and themes [1] - The market structure has shown changes, with increased inflows into real estate chains, resource products, and price increase chains, indicating a rise in medium to low-risk preference for incremental capital [1] - Key focus areas for the spring market include commercial aerospace and AI applications, as well as price increase chains with significant profit elasticity expectations [1] Group 2 - From a medium to long-term perspective, the current market is still in the mid-stage of a "slow bull" trend, with ample room for growth compared to previous bull markets [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index currently has a risk premium of 5.27%, which is higher than the 2.5% level seen in previous bull markets, indicating potential for further market expansion [2] - The total market capitalization of A-shares relative to M2 and the free float market capitalization to household deposits are at historical midpoints, suggesting sufficient opportunities in the market [2] Group 3 - The liquidity environment is expected to remain favorable before the Spring Festival, with a potential for the market to continue to strengthen [2] - The focus for strategies may shift towards sectors with positive first-quarter earnings expectations, particularly in the overseas computing power industry chain [1][2] - High elasticity sectors continue to attract incremental capital, supported by a stable RMB exchange rate and a relatively loose overall liquidity environment [1][2] Group 4 - The market is expected to gradually shift towards performance recovery, with a focus on sectors that show high growth potential and sustainability [4] - Key sectors to watch include batteries, certain chemicals, and industries benefiting from price increase logic, such as non-ferrous metals and storage chips [4] - If the main sectors show weak performance growth, sectors with recovery potential may outperform in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a rebound in trading activity, with transaction volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating strong internal confidence and capital inflow amidst domestic asset scarcity and expectations of RMB appreciation [1][29]. Market Structure and Trends - The market structure has shifted compared to late last year and early this year, with increased activity in the real estate chain, resource products, and price increase chains, reflecting the inflow of medium to low-risk preference capital [1][6][39]. - Recent signals of expanding domestic demand policies have emerged, with expectations of policy enhancements, particularly in real estate prices, infrastructure investment, and service consumption, which are key areas of focus for medium to low-risk preference capital [1][39]. - The expansion of cyclical stocks indicates rising market confidence in re-inflation, with performance spreading from non-ferrous metals to chemicals, building materials, and coal, suggesting strong confidence in the PPI recovery trend this year [1][11][42]. Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks, with indices like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 showing significant gains of 4.34% and 4.04% respectively, indicating increased participation and liquidity support for small-cap stocks [5][35]. - The real estate chain and cyclical resource products have benefited from warming policy expectations and re-inflation, with recent policy announcements aimed at reversing funding dilemmas in the real estate sector [39][42]. - The communication sector has faced declines, raising concerns about the sustainability of previously favored stocks, as institutional holdings in this sector have not consistently yielded excess returns [19][44]. Investment Focus - Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, computing, media, chemicals, and military industries, with themes such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, robotics, controllable nuclear fusion, intelligent driving, and innovative pharmaceuticals being highlighted [31][37]. - The price increase chain remains a significant investment focus, particularly in areas experiencing supply-demand mismatches, such as AI hardware and upstream raw materials like lithium carbonate and PTA [20][21][23].

Strategy Insights - The report highlights a strong spring market driven by active trading in small-cap and thematic investments, with A-share trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, indicating robust market confidence and capital inflow [3][8][22] - The report identifies key themes for investment, including commercial aerospace, AI applications, and the price increase chain, which are expected to attract medium-risk capital [3][22] - The report notes a shift in market structure, with increased focus on real estate, resource products, and price increase chains, reflecting a rebalancing of investment styles [3][22] Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing and trading volumes rebounding, indicating a restoration of investor confidence [8][13] - Small-cap indices such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have outperformed large-cap indices, suggesting a growing interest in mid and small-cap stocks [11][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand mismatches in driving price increases across various sectors, particularly in the semiconductor and resource sectors [3][22][27] Sector Focus - The report suggests that the real estate sector is a critical area for investment, driven by recent policy signals aimed at boosting domestic demand, with leading companies in this sector likely to see revaluation opportunities [3][24] - The cyclical resource sector is expected to benefit from rising PPI and inflation expectations, with a notable increase in prices for industrial metals and chemicals [27][28] - Communication stocks, particularly in the optical communication segment, have faced downward pressure, indicating a need for cautious investment in this area despite overall market optimism [29][41]

Price Trends Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound, but this does not equate to comprehensive re-inflation, as its influence on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is conditional and phase-dependent[1] - The divergence between CPI and PPI is attributed to increased labor costs, supply-demand imbalances, and changes in policy environments[1] - In 2012, CPI was at 24% while PPI was significantly lower, indicating a historical trend of divergence[4] Causal Relationships - A significant unidirectional positive causality exists from PPI to CPI, while the reverse is not statistically significant[1] - The price transmission mechanism shows variability over time; during demand expansion and policy alignment, PPI positively influences CPI, but this effect weakens during economic adjustments[1] Future Price Outlook - Short to medium-term price increases are primarily driven by rising international commodity prices, leading to cost-push and substitution effects[1] - A 10% increase in crude oil extraction prices is projected to raise PPI by approximately 0.35 percentage points and CPI by about 0.15 percentage points[1] - A similar 10% increase in non-ferrous metal extraction prices is expected to increase PPI and CPI by approximately 0.18 and 0.05 percentage points, respectively[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include economic structural adjustments and macroeconomic regulatory factors that may impact the transmission of PPI to CPI[1]