【冠通期货研究报告】 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3250 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 127 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周三持仓量增仓 29747 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 607256 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3115，最高 3131，收于 3123 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨，跌幅 0.32%。 二、基本面数据 螺纹日报：震荡偏弱 供应端：截至 1 月 22 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，公历同比上升 25.42 万吨，产量本周同比增幅显著，反应钢 厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关注产能恢复力度能否持 续。 需求端：表需同比去年大幅增长，但周环比小幅下降，冬储可能开 始，截至 1 月 22 日当周，表需数据 185.52 万吨，周环比减少 4.82 万吨， 年同比增加 68.61 万吨，整体需求相比去年大幅 ...

（邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 昨日螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3126元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌17元/ 吨，跌幅为0.54%，持仓减少1.62万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 下跌20元/吨至2930元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌20元/吨至3200元/吨，全国建材成交量6.63万吨。 随着春节临近，各地建筑工程陆续停工，下游用钢需求逐步缩量，市场投机情绪较差，冬储政策逐步落 地，商家普遍对于冬储备货情绪不足。螺纹长流程钢厂仍有一定的利润空间，生产基本正常，螺纹供需 压力有所加大，库存逐步转为累积。不过当前宏观政策不断有宽松预期，钢材出口处于高位，市场预期 也较为稳定。预计短期螺纹盘面价格仍以弱势震荡运行为主。 铁矿石： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： （柳浠，从业资格号：F03087689；交易咨询资格号：Z0019538） （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所上涨，收于788元 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 一、市场行情回顾 需求端：表需同比去年大幅增长，但周环比小幅下降，冬储可能开 始，截至 1 月 22 日当周，表需数据 185.52 万吨，周环比减少 4.82 万吨， 年同比增加 68.61 万吨，整体需求相比去年大幅增加，显示有韧性。节前 仍然有冬储备货需求支撑。 库存端：库存小幅去库，厂库去库，社库累库，截止 1 月 22 日当 周，总库存 452.1 万吨，周环比上升 14.03 万吨，年同比下降 31.11 万 吨，社库 305.12 万吨，周环比上升 7.71 万吨，年同比下降 43.37 万吨， 厂库 148.98 万吨，周同比上升 6.32 万吨，年同比增加 12.26 万吨，总库 存环比上升，但同比处于近年同期低位，整体库存压力可控，厂库持续累 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 计，说明产量回升速度快于需求消化速度，钢厂端库存压力边际增加，社 库环比微增，但同比大幅下降，反应今年社会库存去化效果较好，流通环 节压力远小于去年同期。对价格有一定支撑。 ■ ...

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a downward trend, with coking coal futures showing weak performance and a price drop of approximately 3.17% [1][2] - Domestic coal mines in major production areas are resuming operations, leading to a steady recovery in coking coal supply, which is causing profit margins for coking enterprises to narrow [2] - Steel demand is currently weak due to the off-season, resulting in reduced demand for coking coal, and the dual coking coal contracts are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [2] Group 2 - Import coal prices are rising, providing some support for domestic coal prices, while the volume of imported coal from Mongolia has been reported at 1,550 vehicles [2] - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, but downstream iron and steel production remains at low levels, indicating a continued pressure on raw material prices [2] - Market expectations regarding policies to reduce competition are influencing coking coal prices, which are likely to remain within a fluctuating range rather than experiencing significant declines [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of steel products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its focus shifting downwards and showing a weak performance [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mining - end news [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Steel Products - **Production Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will halt production from mid - to late January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 741,000 tons of output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - **Market Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - **Market Situation**: Steel products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In a weak supply - demand situation, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Products - **Macro Factors**: The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but news of Powell's successor may impact the market [2] - **Raw Material Supply**: Some northern mining areas have reduced production due to weather. In Henan, bauxite mining in Xin'an stopped last weekend and is resuming, with an 80% drop in supply due to transportation issues. Southern domestic mines are stable, and domestic ore prices are expected to remain stable [3] - **Production Situation**: Domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up, and daily output is rising. The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 60.9% last week, up 0.7 percentage points. Different sub - industries have different situations, with some affected by environmental protection, weather, and market demand [3] - **Inventory**: On January 26, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 777,000 tons, up 28,000 tons from last Monday [3] - **Price Outlook**: Due to macro uncertainty and weak dollar, non - ferrous metals are strong. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro events and downstream feedback [4] - **Later Concerns**: Changes in macro expectations, development of geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量减仓 10906 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 809245 手。日均线来看向上站稳短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，最低 3140，最高 3160，收于 3143 元/吨，上涨 9 元/吨，涨幅 0.29%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3280 元/吨， 相比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 137 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 22 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，公历同比上升 25.42 万吨，产量本周同比增幅显著，反应钢 厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关注产能恢复力度能否持 续。 ■宏观面：央行释放适度宽松信号，财政部强调支出力度只增不减， 但房地产需求拖累，宏观来说增量需求相对有限，但宽松周期相对起到支 撑，需求上限决定压力。 三、驱动因素分析 驱动因素： ■偏 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The coking coal market showed a pattern of opening high and rising during the day. Although the inventory replenishment process for winter storage has slowed down, the downstream hot metal production has increased slightly. With a mild macro - environment, coking coal made up for the price increase today. However, there is no fundamental positive factor, and the subsequent safety and environmental protection efforts at the coal mine end will affect the market trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and rose during the day. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has been high in recent days, reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines in China was 89.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.86%. The daily average output of raw coal reached 1.9944 million tons. The inventory of coking coal mines has started to accumulate, with a week - on - week increase of 19,800 tons. The inventory replenishment process for winter storage has slowed down, especially the inventory accumulation rhythm of steel mills is slow. The downstream hot metal production increased by 0.04% month - on - month, with a daily average output of 228,100 tons. In the winter storage period, it is expected that the procurement of raw materials will still increase [1]. b) Spot Data - In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was quoted at 1,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1,015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,157 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. c) Fundamental Tracking - From January 17th to January 23rd, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 89.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.86 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coking coal was 77,010 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,600 tons. The daily average output of independent coking enterprises was 63,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons [3][5].

Group 1: Investment Rating of the Reported Industry - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating upward" for the rebar industry [1][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current rebar supply side has strong resumption momentum, while the demand side is supported by pre - holiday winter stockpiling and shows resilience. After the Spring Festival, the recovery degree of terminal demand needs attention. The total and social inventories are at a low level year - on - year, with overall controllable inventory pressure, but the accumulation of factory inventories requires attention to the subsequent destocking rhythm. The low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but the significant recovery of production this week suppresses prices to some extent. After continuous declines, the raw material end of iron ore and coking coal has stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate upward in the short term, maintaining a bullish view [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Review - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its positions by 5,512 lots on Friday, and the trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, reaching 657,796 lots. It stood firm above the short - term 5 - day and medium - term 30 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,119 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,147 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,142 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.58% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 128 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter stockpiling on the futures market was cost - effective [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 22nd, rebar production increased by 92,500 tons week - on - week to 1.9955 million tons, and increased by 254,200 tons year - on - year in the Gregorian calendar. The significant year - on - year increase in production this week reflected the accelerating resumption of production by steel mills, suppressing prices in the short term. Continued attention was needed on whether the capacity recovery could be sustained [2] - Demand: The apparent demand increased significantly year - on - year but decreased slightly week - on - week, indicating the possible start of winter stockpiling. As of the week of January 22nd, the apparent demand was 1.8552 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 686,100 tons. Overall demand increased significantly compared with last year, showing resilience, and was supported by pre - holiday winter stockpiling demand [2] - Inventory: There was a slight de - stocking, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory increasing. As of the week of January 22nd, the total inventory was 4.521 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 140,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 311,100 tons. The social inventory was 3.0512 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 77,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 433,700 tons. The factory inventory was 1.4898 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 122,600 tons. The total inventory increased week - on - week but was at a low level in recent years year - on - year, with overall controllable inventory pressure. The continuous accumulation of factory inventory indicated that the production recovery rate was faster than the demand digestion rate, and the inventory pressure at the steel mill end increased marginally. The social inventory increased slightly week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, reflecting better destocking of social inventory this year and much lower pressure in the circulation link than the same period last year, which provided some support for prices [2][3] - Macro: The central bank sent a signal of moderate easing, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that the expenditure intensity would only increase. However, due to weak real estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited, but the easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, anti - involution production cuts on the supply side, strict capacity control, policy - supported demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and loose macro expectations [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive post - Spring Festival inventory accumulation, slow destocking, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter stockpiling demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment of commodities has warmed up, and the steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron markets have all shown varying degrees of rebound, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and the sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen [1][2][3][5][6][7] - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are relatively loose, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a low level. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][5] - For silicon manganese and silicon iron, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market continues to rebound. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel has slightly declined, production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The demand and production of hot-rolled steel have both slightly declined, and inventory has continued to decrease. The profits of steel mills are poor, the downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized [1] - From the December data, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline, domestic demand remains weak overall, and steel exports remain high [1] Iron Ore - The global shipping volume of iron ore has seasonally declined but remains at a high level year-on-year. The inventory at domestic ports has increased significantly this week and continues to accumulate. The structural contradiction remains to be resolved [2] - On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season fluctuates at a low level, the resumption of production of steel mills has been disturbed, and molten iron production has remained basically flat this week, with little significant increase expected in the short term [2] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory is at a relatively low level, and there is still an expectation of winter storage replenishment demand [2] Coke - The price of coke has continued to rebound during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been shelved, the coking profit is average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and the purchasing意愿 of traders is average [3] - Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season. It remains to be seen whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and there is still a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal has slightly rebounded during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,046 vehicles. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the spot auction transactions have maintained a relatively high level. Driven by the increase in the futures price, the transaction prices have varied. Terminal inventory has increased significantly [5] - The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly increased. The winter storage demand continues to be strong [5] - Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off-season. It remains to be seen whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and there is still a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices [5] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese has slightly rebounded during the day. Driven by the rebound in the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the formula of the manganese ore charged into the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, molten iron production has seasonally decreased. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the inventory of silicon manganese has slightly decreased [6] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron has slightly rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong [7] - The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall, demand still has resilience [7] - The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and inventory has slightly decreased [7]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-23 基本面承压继续，钢价震荡运行 钢材：基本面承压继续，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3124元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3287元/吨。现货方面，周三杭州螺纹库存47.2万吨， 螺纹出库3.9万吨，农历同比去年库存42.3万吨,去年出库4.3万吨。全国建材成交71531万吨。 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：成交有所回升，矿价震荡运行 供需与逻辑：建材基本面承压，需求走弱，淡季钢价震荡运行。板材基本面矛盾有限，高库存始终压制价格边际 弹性。短期市场情绪较弱，价格底部不排除投机需求发生，关注减产情况及冬储情况，需求去库变化、利润状况、 成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石价格震荡运行。现货方面，22日全国主港铁矿累计成交91.3万吨，环比上涨12.44%；本周 平均每日成交102.1万吨，环比上涨3.76%；本月平均每日成交95.8万吨，环比下跌6.54%。远期现货方面，远期现 货累计成交10.5万吨（2笔），环比下跌94. ...