晨报 碳酸锂 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货价格呈区间震荡格局，主力合约运行于 10.9 万至 11.65 万元/吨之间，盘中一度大涨近 5.78%，最高触及 116460 元/吨，成交和持 仓同步回升，主力净空格局延续。盘面大幅上涨仍主要受资金情绪影响。现货端， SMM 数据显示电碳均价 99000 元/吨，价格持续上行，主力合约基差-15380 元/ 吨。成交层面，市场活跃度持续下降，仅少数企业刚需采购支撑成交，贸易以点 价交易为主。目前，上下游企业间的年度长协谈判仍在持续博弈中。 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties are classified into different trends such as trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头 [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, futures varieties are classified into 偏空, 震荡, and 偏多 trends [6]. - The overall A - share market showed an upward trend with increased trading volume, but the 12 - month economic data may still be weak, and the overseas data has some uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to its sustainability [8][9]. - The short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the sentiment in the market may decline [10]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term. The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate upward in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. The silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies in the medium term [11][13][15]. - For soda ash, the strategy is to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. - The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. The price of Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a low - inventory level, and the previous short positions are recommended to continue to be held. The price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely in the long - term, with a short - term weakening demand and possible short - term correction [18][19]. - For industrial silicon, there is a possibility of partial valuation repair; for polysilicon, the spot price is expected to remain strong [21]. - For cotton, short - term long positions need to be cautious. For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. For eggs, the contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. For apples, the price will fluctuate. For corn, it is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. For red dates, the market will fluctuate. For live pigs, the spot price is expected to fluctuate downward, and it is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts [23][26][28][30][31][32][33]. - For crude oil, it needs to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the Venezuelan situation in the short term. For fuel oil, the price will follow the oil price. For plastics, it is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend. For rubber, the short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. For methanol, the near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced. For caustic soda, avoid long positions in the near - month contracts and hold long positions in the main contract dynamically. For asphalt, the price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. For the polyester industry chain, it is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. For liquefied petroleum gas, the price will fluctuate. For pulp, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. For logs, the price will fluctuate. For urea, it is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view [34][36][37][38][39][41][42][43][45][46][47]. Summary by Directory Futures Trend Based on Fundamental Analysis - Trend空头: Ethylene glycol, lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, silicon iron, live pigs, eggs, plastic [2]. - 震荡偏空: Liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, polycrystalline silicon [2]. - 震荡: Short - fiber, bottle - piece, p - xylene, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Stock Index Futures, ten - year bond, five - year bond, thirty - year bond, CSI 300 Stock Index Futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures, CSI 500 Stock Index Futures, two - year bond, cotton, zinc, synthetic rubber, rubber, log, pulp, caustic soda, offset printing paper, corn, red dates, urea, apple, rebar, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, glass, soda ash [2]. - 震荡偏多: None provided in the given content. - 趋势多头: None provided in the given content. Futures Trend Based on Quantitative Indicators - 偏空: Coke, PTA, Zhengzhou cotton, glass, manganese silicon, PVC, Shanghai silver [6]. - 震荡: Rebar, plastic, hot - rolled coil, palm oil, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, corn starch, soybean No. 2, soybean No. 1, Shanghai lead, rubber, polypropylene, Shanghai tin, asphalt, methanol, corn, Shanghai gold, coking coal [6]. - 偏多: Rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, iron ore, eggs, sugar, soybean oil [6]. Macro News - The central bank launched a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount overdue personal information. - Vanke's 2 billion yuan bond extension plan was rejected again. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline. - Precious metals prices soared, and Wall Street was optimistic about the continued rise of gold prices. - China's December LPR remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key - area reform tasks. - BYD confirmed the salary increase for R & D staff. - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and returned to Ukraine. - Trump will appoint a new Fed chairman in early January next year. - The Trump administration increased the cash subsidy for illegal immigrants' voluntary departure. - The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange took measures to cool down the silver futures market [8]. Macro - Financial Market Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3917.36, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23%. The trading volume was 1.88 trillion yuan, a net increase of 130 billion yuan from the previous day. The 12 - month economic data may be weak, and the overseas data has uncertainties. The stock index continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the liquidity repair and the structure. If it is realized, the index may strengthen, and attention should be paid to IH [8][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The funds were moderately loose, and the short - and medium - term bonds may fluctuate moderately upward, but the odds are more important than the direction. Without interest rate cuts, the market sentiment may decline. The 10 - year - and - below bonds are mainly supported by the decline of the funds' central level, and the ultra - long - term bonds are relatively weak. The curve is continuously steep. It is advisable to observe the MLF renewal operation and bond - buying logic first [10]. Black Market Steel and Ore - Policy: The Central Economic Work Conference met market expectations but had no new policies. The supply - side should pay attention to the deployment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the end of December. - Fundamentals: The demand for building materials was weak, and there was an expectation of further decline in the off - season. The demand for coils was good, and the apparent demand was acceptable. The steel mills' profits were at a low level, and the iron - water output was expected to continue to decline. The inventory of five major steel products decreased month - on - month but remained high compared with last year. - Valuation: The raw - material futures prices were fluctuating weakly, and the cost was expected to continue to decrease. - Trend: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a bearish view on rallies in the medium and long term [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - The price may fluctuate upward in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances from coal - mine production, safety inspections, and the downstream winter - storage progress and iron - water output changes. In the medium term, the domestic mine's production rate is restricted by policies. In the short term, the coal supply has a contraction expectation, and the potential negative feedback from the weakening steel demand restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises has increased, and the downstream replenishment is slow. The price may have a phased rebound, but the space is limited [13][14]. Ferroalloys - The hedging pressure of silicon alloys increases with the rising price. For manganese silicon, the cost is expected to decrease by about 25 yuan/ton. In the short term, pay attention to the possibility of the resumption of silicon - iron plants and the new - capacity launch of manganese silicon. In the medium term, both silicon alloys should be considered bearish on rallies [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: Some production - reduction enterprises have resumed production, but the supply may be affected by cost and new - capacity launch. It is advisable to wait and see. - Glass: There is an expectation of production reduction, but the impact on the market is gradually weakening. It is advisable to try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - As of December 22, the domestic zinc inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate downward after the macro - positive factors fade. It is advisable to hold short positions [18]. Shanghai Lead - As of December 22, the lead inventory decreased. It is expected to maintain a low - inventory level. It is advisable to continue to hold short positions [18][19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term demand is weakening. It may have a short - term correction after the market sentiment returns to rationality, but it will rise in the long - term and fluctuate widely [19][20]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: It is difficult to see production reduction in the short term, but there is a possibility of partial valuation repair. It may gradually shift to the game of polysilicon production - reduction expectations. - Polysilicon: The new delivery warehouses may put pressure on the near - month contracts in the short term. The spot price is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the manufacturers' trading willingness [21]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, and the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The short - term long positions need to be cautious [23][24][25]. Sugar - The domestic and international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The new - sugar listing pressure will suppress the price. The Zhengzhou sugar price is undervalued. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Eggs - The spot price has not risen as expected recently. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts have support. It is advisable to wait and see [28][29]. Apples - The apple delivery is slightly less year - on - year, the sales in the distribution area are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. The price will fluctuate [30][31]. Corn - It is advisable to go short on the 03 contract and control the position or choose the 3 - 7 reverse spread. The supply - and - demand mismatch is being alleviated, and the far - month contracts are under supply pressure [31]. Red Dates - The market is in the digestion stage of new - product arrival, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream sales and procurement [32]. Live Pigs - The supply - exceeds - demand situation remains unchanged. The spot price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is advisable to go short on the near - month contracts and control the position [33]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - The situation in Venezuela has led to a rapid rebound in oil prices. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the price increase caused by the further escalation of the situation. In the medium - term, the oil price is under pressure due to the new supply wave and weakening demand [34][35]. Fuel Oil - The price is affected by geopolitics and the macro - environment. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the oil price [36]. Plastics - The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The price may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to consider a weakening and fluctuating trend [37]. Rubber - The short - term strategy of shorting the ru - nr spread should stop profit and wait and see. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss [37][38]. Synthetic Rubber - It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and be cautious about chasing up or down. The price is affected by raw - material prices, downstream procurement, and funds [39]. Methanol - The supply and demand situation has improved slightly, and the inventory has started to decrease. The near - month contracts may have a slight rebound, and the far - month contracts can be considered for long positions after the inventory is smoothly reduced [39][40]. Caustic Soda - The near - month contracts should avoid long positions, and the long positions in the main contract should be held dynamically. The price is affected by the spot market and the overall commodity market [41]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The raw - material supply is affected by geopolitics [42]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is advisable to go long lightly at low prices. The PX price is expected to be strong, the PTA price follows the cost, the ethylene glycol price is relatively weak, and the short - fiber price has limited follow - up power [43]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price will fluctuate. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the overall supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical - industry pressure is high [43][44]. Pulp - The fundamentals are improving, and the price is pushed up by funds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and consider option - selling strategies for high - cost positions [45]. Logs - The fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the price will fluctuate. The import volume has increased, and the external market price has a downward trend [46]. Urea - It is advisable to maintain a fluctuating view. The spot market is affected by coal prices and environmental protection policies. The futures market is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery after the end of environmental protection restrictions [47].

黑色建材日报 2025-12-23 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.224%）。当日注册仓单 60684 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.1974 万手，环比增加 23108 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3277 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 8 元/吨（0.244%）。 当日注册仓单 104293 吨, 环比增加 889 吨。 主力合约持仓量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall market, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the medium and long - term, the idea of buying on dips is the main strategy [4]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, precious metals are expected to show strong performance; some metals like copper and aluminum have certain price support but also face resistance; and some agricultural products like sugar are expected to be bearish in the long - term but with short - term uncertainties [7][11][86]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Li Qiang plans major projects; the Ministry of Commerce imposes temporary anti - subsidy measures on EU dairy products; spot gold hits $4400/oz, up nearly 68% this year; Goldman Sachs expects a bull market in Chinese stocks next year, with corporate earnings potentially growing 14% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, and the stock market may rise 38% by the end of 2027 [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces uncertainty. But in the long - run, it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts had different declines; the 12 - month LPR remained unchanged; the central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6 - month RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong; there was a net withdrawal of 6.36 billion yuan in liquidity on Monday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unchanged LPR is in line with expectations. The economy has stable production but weak service and demand. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.60%, silver rose 2.30%; COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices; the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan's policy statement affected the market [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The release of overseas central bank policy risks boosts market sentiment. Gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The unchanged LPR and strong precious metals prices pushed copper prices up. LME inventory decreased, and domestic inventories and premiums had corresponding changes [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose policy and strong precious metals support copper prices. But there is resistance due to the higher - than - expected 2026 copper concentrate processing fee and weak November consumption. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic aluminum inventories increased, and prices oscillated down. LME inventory was flat, and premiums had corresponding changes [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is relatively low, and there is support from overseas supply disruptions and the precious metals market. But there are pressures from tariff hikes and the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and rise [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also had a price increase. There were corresponding changes in inventories, premiums, and other indicators [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term but may rise in the short - term due to macro - sentiment [14]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. There were changes in inventories, premiums, and other aspects [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic lead supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded sharply. Spot premiums and cost - end prices had corresponding changes [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure is still large, but the bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin main contract price declined. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi had different production situations, and the demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index and futures contract price of carbonate lithium increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the bullish trend is not over. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options lightly [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined, and there were changes in positions and premiums [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina is hard to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rose, and there were changes in positions and spot prices [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore production target affects the market. The actual spot trading is light. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy implementation [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. There were changes in positions, trading volume, and prices [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and there are supply disruptions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market oscillates. The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The winter storage willingness is not strong [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. There were changes in positions and spot prices [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand for iron water declined. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory was at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda ash main contract price also declined, and the inventory increased [32][34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash demand is weak, and it is advisable to short - sell [33][34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon increased. There were changes in spot prices and premiums [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market macro - sentiment is stable. The future market is affected by the black market trend, cost, and supply. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract price declined. The polysilicon main contract price also declined. There were changes in positions, spot prices, and inventories [40][42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply may decrease, and the demand is weak. The polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The prices are expected to fluctuate [41][43]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. The tire enterprise operating rates and inventories had corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term and hedge partially [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures and related refined oil futures prices increased. The European ARA refined oil inventories had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of methanol had corresponding changes [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will consolidate. The port pressure remains, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and main futures prices of urea had corresponding changes [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has improved, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased. There were changes in premiums, inventories, and operating rates [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for repair. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, costs, operating rates, and inventories [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price declined. There were changes in supply, demand, inventories, and profits [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to improve, but the inventory is high. Attention should be paid to the risk of price rebound [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and processing fees [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply has high maintenance, and the demand will decline. It is advisable to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price increased. There were changes in operating rates, inventories, and valuations [66][67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX inventory is expected to increase slightly in December. It is advisable to go long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE valuation has limited downward space. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price declined. There were changes in spot prices, operating rates, and inventories [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is seasonally weak. The inventory pressure is high. The market may be supported in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog prices fluctuated. The demand after the Winter Solstice decreased but still supported the price [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand has decreased marginally, but the supply is large. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply was normal, and the market trading was tepid [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to squeeze the premium. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price increased. The domestic soybean meal price increased, and there were changes in inventories and压榨量 [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data had different changes. The domestic oil prices rebounded [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply is large in the short - term but may reverse in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions had corresponding changes. The import and production data of different countries had different changes [83][84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. It is advisable to be bearish in the long - term but wait and see in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased. The spot price increased, and there were changes in import, inventory, and operating rate data [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand is not bad after the peak season. The price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend [89].

2025年12月22日 周报 双焦：三轮提降落地，盘面超跌反弹 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周国内焦煤、焦炭市场延续偏弱运行格局，第三轮提降50-55元/吨，预计下周 一执行。受重污染天气影响，部分焦企进一步限产，短期焦炭供应仍呈现收窄状态；下游钢厂检修居多，尚 未开始大范围补库，整体库存略有增长；市场成交仍偏冷清。 展望：整体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 风险提示：煤矿安检限产；进口煤情况变化；粗钢压产政策；政策刺激超预期。 | 双焦 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤总库存 | 万吨 | 2127.45 | 2139.45 | -12 | -0.56% | 周度 | | 焦炭总库存 | 万吨 | 900.48 | 903.8 | -3. ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为72.05%，减1.11%；焦炭日均产量63.00万吨，减0.98万吨； 焦炭库存91.10万吨，增3.78万吨；炼焦煤总库存1036.29万 吨，减1.01万吨；焦煤可用天数12.4天，增0.18天。评：供应 端，产地部分前期换工作面的煤矿恢复生产，但随着完成年度 任务减产的煤矿继续增加，国内供应依旧偏紧。需求端，焦炭 产量小幅回落，中下游按需采购为主，上游煤矿累库放缓。整 体上，低估值下盘面低位持续反弹，现货端采购积极性有所回 升，线上竟拍成交稍有改善。随着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加 大，焦煤基本面延续边际改善，盘面估值仍有修复空间。 【短评-白银】美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示， 与古尔斯比观点一致，当前仍存在充足的降息空间。特朗普希 望美联储主席能够作出独立判断，特朗普助手们将在佛罗里达 讨论住房政策，预计很快将在新年宣布"重大"住房计划。 评：目前关于未来降息的分歧有所加强，但是对政府的各种刺 激政策的预期增加，提振风险偏好。降息预期对贵金属存在支 撑，整体来看，降息周期对白银依然偏多支撑。关注黄金波动 对 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-22 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3119 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 6 元/吨（-0.19%）。当日注册仓单 60684 吨, 环比增加 3619 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.8866 万手，环比减少 7077 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3269 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 8 元/吨（-0.24%）。 当日注册仓单 103404 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量 ...

南华期货煤焦产业周报 ——关注冬储需求释放 张泫 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723 联系邮箱：zhangxuan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【核心逻辑】本周汾渭及钢联口径焦煤产量劈叉，钢联口径矿山增产累库，汾渭口径减产累库，下游焦企受 提降预期影响补库积极性偏差，仅维持刚需采购，焦煤库存结构持续恶化。进口端，本周蒙煤日平均通关车 数超1500车/天，澳煤价格指数稳中有涨，内外价差倒挂严重，海煤进口窗口收窄，后续焦煤到港可能有所回 落。下游方面，焦炭三轮提降正式开启，目前即期焦化利润处于盈亏平衡点附近，预计三轮提降落地后部分 焦企将面临小幅亏损。本周焦企开工率受环保限产影响小幅下降，但高炉铁水加速减产，用焦需求同步萎 缩，焦炭基本面边际恶化，目前不排除钢厂继续四轮提降的可能。展望后市，随着终端冬储补库临近，焦煤 库存结构有望改善，当前焦煤过剩幅度相比往年并不严重，此轮库存转移对于缓和上游矿山库存压力、支撑 现货价格企稳有一定帮助，受偏高基差牵制，焦煤盘面下方空间可能较为有限。焦炭方面，三轮提降落地 ...

双焦：盘面底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2025年12月19日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 数据来源：Mysteel 银河期货 注意到近期市场"反内卷"情绪有所上升，前期跌幅较大的商品近日均出现了反弹，焦煤本身波动较大，反弹亦较为明显。 基本面上，近日山西焦煤竞拍流拍率降低，成交情况有所好转，部分煤种出现企稳反弹迹象，但还没形成普涨，仍需观察 下游采购力度。蒙煤方面，当前蒙煤通关车持续处于高位，库存上升，同时给国内煤也带来较大压力。不过考虑到后期焦 钢企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任务会有减产检修，后期焦煤供需可能略有改善。 预计近期焦煤波动仍较大，建议观望，亦可等待回调后轻仓试多。后期主要关注煤矿年底减产力度、下游对原料冬储进度、 反内卷交易是否持续等因素。 单边：关注交易逻辑的变化，波动仍较大，建议观望为主，亦可等待回调后轻仓试多。 套利：观望。 期 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 热轧卷板市场周报 炉料走高提供支撑 热卷期价止跌反弹 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至12月19日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3269（+37），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3290（+0）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量下调。291.91（-16.8），（同比-20.81）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需298.28（-13.69），（同比-11.06）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库+社库双降。总库存390.72（-6.37），（同比+81.44）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做好充分准备。预计美国失业率 ...