Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Japan's low interest rates and weak yen may accelerate inflation, necessitating the Bank of Japan's consideration of these factors in its monetary policy [1][2] - The former senior currency diplomat emphasizes that Japan's interest rates are excessively low, contributing to the yen's weakness, which could lead to higher import costs and inflation [1] - The Bank of Japan has recently raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% after a decade of negative interest rates, aiming for a sustainable 2% inflation target [1] Group 2 - The former diplomat suggests that if the Bank of Japan gradually tightens its monetary policy and reduces the interest rate differential with the U.S., the yen's weakness could be corrected [2] - Historical context is provided, indicating that after the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated significantly, leading to a public backlash and subsequent monetary easing that contributed to Japan's asset bubble [2] - There is a growing recognition that a stronger yen could be an opportunity for Japan to reduce its reliance on exports and shift towards a new growth model [2] Group 3 - There is a notable shift in sentiment regarding the strong yen, with increasing awareness of the impact of a weak yen on the cost of living for ordinary Japanese households [3] - Nomura's recent research indicates that if the Bank of Japan incorporates the uncertainties from the new government coalition into its monetary policy, the likelihood of a rate hike in October may decrease, with the next expected hike in January 2026 [3]

【导读】欧洲央行如期维持利率不变，拉加德称去通胀过程已结束；机构判断宽松政策周期结束，下一步可能加息；欧元兑美 元EUR/USD持续走高 北京时间周四20点15分，欧洲央行正式宣布其利率决定：维持三大关键利率不变。 欧洲央行宣布，将欧元区存款机制利率、主要再融资利率和边际借贷利率这三大关键利率分别保持在2.00%、2.15%和2.40%。 这是欧洲央行连续第二次在政策会议上决定保持利率不变，符合市场预期。 欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在新闻发布会上表示："利率决定是一致通过的。欧洲区去通胀过程已结束，通胀水平处于我 们希望的位置。当前经济因需求的韧性而增长，最近贸易协议不确定性已减少。未来更高关税、强势欧元和竞争将抑制经济增 长。" 欧洲央行如期维持利率不变 欧洲央行表示，当前通胀水平处于2%的中期目标附近，管理委员会对通胀前景的评估基本保持不变。 有分析指出，这一决策背后的主要支撑因素来自近期欧元区经济数据的改善。此外，美欧之间新近达成的贸易协定亦为区域经 济前景提供了额外支撑，有助于缓解此前因外部贸易环境不确定性带来的下行压力。 拉加德表示："当前欧元区经济因需求的韧性而增长，经济增长的逆风明年应该会消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its key interest rates unchanged, signaling the end of the disinflation process and indicating a potential shift towards tightening monetary policy in the future [4][5]. Interest Rate Decision - The ECB has kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [4]. - This marks the second consecutive meeting where the ECB has opted to keep rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations [4]. Inflation Outlook - Current inflation levels are near the ECB's medium-term target of 2%, with projections for overall inflation at 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [4]. - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026 while lowering the forecast for 2027 [4]. - Core inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is expected to be 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [4]. Economic Growth Projections - The ECB anticipates a GDP growth rate of 1.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.9%, while projecting a slight decrease to 1.0% for 2026 [4]. - Economic growth is supported by resilient demand and reduced trade uncertainty, with improvements noted in both manufacturing and services sectors [5]. Monetary Policy Direction - The ECB is prepared to adjust all tools within its mandate to ensure inflation stability at the 2% target and smooth monetary policy transmission [5]. - Analysts suggest that the ECB's decision reflects improved economic data and recent trade agreements, which bolster the regional economic outlook [5][6]. Market Reactions - The EUR/USD exchange rate has been rising, currently reported at 1.17364 [8]. - There is a growing consensus among economists that the ECB's easing cycle may have concluded, with future actions potentially leaning towards interest rate hikes rather than cuts [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% during its meeting on September 11, aligning with market expectations [1] Economic Outlook - A significant majority of economists (66 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged, indicating a consensus on the current monetary policy stance [1] - Recent data shows inflation nearing the ECB's target of 2%, and the unemployment rate is at historical lows, leading to the belief that the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle [1] - Approximately 60% of economists (40 out of 69) forecast that the ECB will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year [1] Economic Growth Projections - Economists project that the Eurozone economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, which is consistent with the findings from the August survey [1] - There are warnings regarding potential risks in the region, including the contraction of the German economy and political instability in some Eurozone countries [1] Currency Trading Insights - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently in a consolidation pattern below resistance levels, with a focus on the monthly opening range of 1.1586 to 1.1775 [1] - From a trading perspective, if the Euro intends to continue its upward trend, it must keep declines above 1.1497 and close above the current trading range to initiate a new major upward wave [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to maintain its current interest rates during the upcoming meeting on Thursday [1] Group 1 - The ECB's decision to hold interest rates is expected to reflect ongoing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran is expected to clear Senate hurdles for his nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, which may allow for more direct influence from Trump on interest rate policies and the broader functions of the Fed [1] Group 1: Nomination Process - The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on Miran's nomination before a hearing at 10 AM ET, which will then be forwarded to the full Senate [1] - Democratic senators are expected to vote against the nomination, but the Republican majority of 13 to 11 in the committee is likely to ensure its passage [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the completion of the confirmation process in time for Miran to attend the Fed's policy meeting on September 16-17 [1] Group 2: Timing and Implications - A Senate Republican aide indicated that due to complex Senate rules, Miran may be approved as early as Monday, leaving little time for necessary steps before his swearing-in [1] - The Republican majority in the Senate, which stands at 53 to 47, suggests that even if Miran cannot participate in the upcoming interest rate vote, he is likely to assume office shortly thereafter [1]

美国总统特朗普近期一系列举动，正将美联储推向前所未有的动荡。 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普周五表示，已经大概知道要选谁来担任美联储主席了，美国白宫国 家经济委员会主任哈塞特是三个可能人选之一。但他拒绝承认会选择哈塞特担任美联储主席。特朗普 称，美国财长贝森特曾是美联储主席的第四人选，现在剩下三人。沃什和沃勒是其他的潜在人选。特朗 普公开强调，他希望新主席更加配合其"迅速降息"的政策目标，并批评鲍威尔"动作太慢"，导致抵押贷 款利率居高不下，给购房者造成巨大负担。 市场人士认为，美联储主席人选将直接影响未来利率走向、通胀政策及央行独立性，这一人事决定无疑 将成为未来几个月全球金融市场的最大不确定性之一。 8月1日，美联储理事库格勒突然宣布辞职，震惊金融界。库格勒由前总统拜登提名，于2023年获参议院 确认，任期原本到2026年1月才结束。但在辞职信中，她未透露离任原因，仅表示"这是我一生的荣 幸"。美联储在新闻稿中称，库格勒将回到乔治城大学任教，然而该校官网仍将其列为"美联储理事，休 假中"，且未显示任何授课安排，令其辞职原因更加扑朔迷离。 特朗普在接受媒体采访时暗示，库格勒辞职或因与"鲍威尔派"在利率问 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has not yet made a decision on policy actions to support at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, emphasizing the need to consider inflation data to be released next week [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee expressed a desire for more information as the meeting approaches, maintaining an open attitude [1] - The focus on inflation performance is crucial, with Goolsbee indicating that milder inflation data would allow for greater focus on the labor market [1] - Recent inflation reports have shown a rebound in service sector prices, prompting the need to confirm whether this is a temporary fluctuation or a more serious signal [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The Fed Chairman Powell signaled a September rate cut due to weakening employment supply and demand. Coupled with Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to go long on price dips [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 809.97 yuan/g, with trading volume of 70,268.00 and open interest of 221,198.00. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,410.70 dollars/oz, trading volume was 94,317.00, and open interest was 360,647.00. London gold spot price was 3,334.25 dollars/oz. SPDR gold ETF holdings were 25.77 million ounces, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 456.72 million ounces [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 433.00 yuan/kg, trading volume was -101,174.00, and open interest was 3,489,224.00. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 38.55 dollars/oz, trading volume was 22,029.00, and open interest was 88,833.00. London silver spot price was 40.52 dollars/oz. US iShare silver ETF holdings were -85.08 million ounces, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 6,084.49 million ounces [1]. Macroeconomic Data - **Interest Rates**: US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2200%, TIPS yield was 1.8200%, and breakeven inflation rate was 2.4000%. Shanghai Inter - bank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.32%, and SHIBOR one - year was 1.66% [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.1485, the US dollar to RMB central parity rate was 7.1108, and the euro to RMB central parity rate was 8.2855 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,813.5566, the S&P 500 was 32.72, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,321.4000, the French CAC40 was 7,719.7100, the German DAX was 23,487.3300, the Nikkei 225 was 42,807.8200, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,184.4200 [1]. Important News - **US**: Trump reiterated tariffs might replace income tax, and the US threatened with tariffs against the UN shipping emissions agreement. US July JOLTS job openings hit a 10 - month low. US August tariffs exceeded $31 billion, a record high. Fed Governor Waller suggested starting rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [1]. - **Europe**: Eurozone August PMI was slightly revised down, and German services unexpectedly shrank. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August [1]. - **Asia**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen starting in April 2026 [1]. Trading Strategy - For precious metals, investors are advised to go long on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/oz and resistance around 3,600 - 3,700 dollars/oz. For Shanghai gold, focus on support around 760 - 770 yuan/g and resistance around 840 - 850 yuan/g. For London silver, focus on support around 36 - 37 dollars/oz and resistance around 41 - 43 dollars/oz. For Shanghai silver, focus on support around 9,000 - 9,400 yuan/kg and resistance around 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/kg [1].

Group 1 - The current interest rate level is deemed suitable for the economic environment, aligning with a fully employed labor market and core inflation rates approximately one percentage point above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - A balanced approach in policy-making is emphasized, avoiding excessive bias towards either supporting the labor market or combating inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year to observe the impact of policy changes, including tariffs, on inflation [1] Group 2 - The slowdown in corporate hiring is attributed to both reduced demand and decreased labor supply due to immigration restrictions [2] - Economic growth has slowed this year, leading to uncertainty in policies that cause businesses and households to cut spending [2] - Inflation remains closer to 3% rather than the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with tariffs expected to gradually affect the economy over the next two to three quarters [2]