Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced strong fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing a 10-year high, while the Hong Kong market showed weakness, particularly in technology stocks [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.13% at 3771.1 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.06% to 11919.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.47% to 2595.47 points [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 246.08 billion yuan, a slight increase from the previous day [2]. - Over 3000 stocks in the market were in the red, with the semiconductor sector declining significantly, including Dongxin Co., which fell over 12% [2][4]. Sector Highlights - The domestic software sector saw a strong rally, with stocks like Beixin Source hitting a 20% limit up, and ZTE Corporation also performing well with a rise of over 6% [4][6]. - Resource stocks, including oil, electricity, coal, and gas, experienced a collective surge, with companies like Zhun Oil and Anyuan Coal reaching their daily limit [2]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry chain stocks faced a downturn, with companies like Huaguang New Material and Tongfei Co. dropping over 10%, and several others hitting the daily limit down [9][10]. - The rapid growth in AI applications is highlighted by a significant increase in daily Token consumption, which rose from 1 trillion to over 30 trillion in just 1.5 years, indicating a booming AI application scale [6][7]. Notable Stock Movements - Jishi Media experienced a dramatic trading session, initially hitting a limit down before rebounding to close at a limit up, marking its eighth limit up in 14 trading days [13][12]. - Jin Tian Co. and Tenglong Co. issued warnings about their stock performance, indicating that their recent price increases may not reflect fundamental changes in their business [11][15].

Group 1 - The company has integrated its "Intelligence and Command Integration Practical Platform" with the domestic large model DeepSeek, enhancing the platform's intelligent decision-making capabilities [1] - This integration aims to inject new combat effectiveness into the public security operational command system [1]

Group 1 - The global technology innovation system is undergoing significant restructuring, with China transitioning from a participant to a leader in technology innovation, particularly in the "AI+" application market [2][3] - The current international landscape is characterized by regional restructuring of industrial chains, while the technological revolution, led by artificial intelligence, is advancing rapidly [3][4] - The speed of technological transfer has accelerated, with AI model capabilities evolving on a monthly basis, contrasting with historical timelines of technology transfer [3][4] Group 2 - The "AI+" sector is expected to be the largest opportunity in the next decade, with specific industries such as "AI+ finance," "AI+ healthcare," and "AI+ industry" poised for rapid growth [4][5] - Successful implementation of vertical AI applications depends on the availability of large, usable, and standardized data, particularly in finance and healthcare sectors [4][6] - The vibrant market dynamics, driven by numerous private enterprises in finance and healthcare, contribute significantly to innovation and the application of AI technologies [4][6] Group 3 - China has achieved remarkable success in the current digital technology revolution, establishing a strong presence in high-tech fields such as 5G and new energy vehicles [5][6] - Three key advantages for China in the global technology innovation system restructuring include a large-scale market with a complete industrial system, coherent industrial policies, and a combined innovation ecosystem of market and policy [6][7] - The recent reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aim to open capital channels for cutting-edge technology fields, including AI and commercial aerospace [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][30]. Core Insights - The launch of the new flagship model GLM-4.5 by Zhipu enhances the international competitiveness of domestic large models, achieving the best performance in domestic evaluations and ranking third globally among all models [6][10]. - Figma's successful IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, with a market capitalization of $67.6 billion, highlights the rapid evolution of generative AI in the design software industry [14][15]. - The computer industry is expected to see dual improvements in performance and valuation due to accelerated demand recovery [26]. Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Zhipu's GLM-4.5 model integrates reasoning, coding, and agent capabilities, achieving state-of-the-art performance in open-source models and ranking first among domestic models [10][11]. - Figma's stock surged 250% on its first trading day, reflecting strong market interest and the company's strategic focus on AI functionalities to enhance design efficiency [14][15]. Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index decreased by 0.20%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.55 percentage points [20]. - The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry is 55.2 times, with 159 out of 359 A-share component stocks rising in price [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several sectors within the computer industry, including: 1. **New Infrastructure Sector**: Strong recommendations for companies like Longxin Zhongke and Zhongke Shuguang [26]. 2. **Huawei Supply Chain**: Suggested companies include Softcom Power and Tuo Wei Information [26]. 3. **AI Algorithms and Applications**: Strong recommendations for companies like Zhongke Chuangda and Shengshi Technology [26]. 4. **AI Computing Power**: Recommendations for companies such as Haiguang Information and Industrial Fulian [26]. 5. **Financial IT Sector**: Strong recommendations for companies like Hengsheng Electronics [26].

Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in the A-share market are seen as a natural adjustment within a bull market, rather than a sign of a market downturn [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that bull markets often experience significant pullbacks; for instance, the 2007 bull market saw four instances of over 5% declines, with the largest being over 20% [3]. - Recent trading volume has decreased by nearly 150 billion, indicating a temporary pause in the market after a sustained period of high trading activity [3]. - The financing balance has reached 1.97 trillion, a ten-year high, suggesting increased leverage in the market which can amplify volatility [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - There are three key areas where funds are being redirected: 1. Low valuation sectors, with 66.7% of industries still at historical midpoints, while high valuation sectors like military and real estate are in the minority [4]. 2. Companies with strong overseas performance, such as those in computer equipment and agricultural chemicals, which have over 40% of their revenue from international markets [4]. 3. Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology, are undervalued compared to their A-share counterparts, with catalysts like AI applications and new energy driving potential growth [4]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Strategies - A shift towards long-term holding strategies is recommended, moving away from short-term trading which has been prevalent in recent years [5]. - Key investment themes include: 1. Hard technology breakthroughs, particularly in AI and related applications, with the ChiNext index showing a low valuation percentile of 12.79% [5]. 2. Companies in home goods and general equipment that are managing to increase profits despite trade tensions [5]. 3. Policy-driven opportunities in sectors like family planning and the aging economy, with recent successes in the film industry indicating potential for growth [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Market Indicators - Key indicators to watch include trading volume, valuation levels, and market sentiment: - A trading volume consistently above 1 trillion is seen as a positive sign for market health [6]. - Valuation levels should be assessed by sector, with banking showing a PE ratio at the 95th percentile, indicating caution, while agriculture is at 1.91%, suggesting potential for investment [6]. - Monitoring margin financing levels is crucial; as they approach 2 trillion, it may be wise to reduce exposure to speculative stocks and increase positions in undervalued leaders [6].

A股三大指数走势分化，上证指数站稳3600点，盘中上涨0.54%，板块方面，船舶制造、采掘行业、钢 铁行业等涨幅居前。人工智能AIETF（515070）持仓股持仓股乐鑫科技上涨超4%，神州泰岳、瑞芯 微、海康视威、澜起科技、豪威集团等均上涨。 消息方面，我国已发布1509个大模型，在全球已发布的3755个大模型中数量位居首位，我国人工智能技 术化产业发展有望迎来新的突破。中国信息通信研究院监测数据显示，目前全球人工智能企业超3.5万 家，我国人工智能企业超5100家，全球占比约15%，产业规模持续壮大，形成覆盖基础底座、行业应用 的完整产业体系。此外，全球人工智能独角兽企业271家，中国71家，全球占比约26%。 平安证券研报指出，我国国产大模型能力持续升级，在我国高度重视人工智能产业发展的背景下，我国 AI产业链将持续完善升级，应用落地及商业化步伐将进一步加速，我国AI产业未来发展前景广阔。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, are expected to outperform A-shares in the second half of the year due to a recovery in southbound capital inflows and the unique asset advantages of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Since July, there has been a significant acceleration in southbound capital inflows, with the inflow momentum returning to the mean plus one standard deviation level [1] - The rapid transformation of the AI industry is driving upward profitability in Hong Kong technology stocks, which may become a mid-term investment focus [1] Group 2 - Domestic large model breakthroughs are increasing, leading to a gradual increase in southbound allocations to Hong Kong technology stocks [1] - The easing of US-China trade tensions and technology export controls is expected to accelerate the iteration of domestic large models and the implementation of AI applications [1] - Hong Kong technology leaders are likely to regain relative advantages under the resonance of technology, capital, and policy [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which selects investable Hong Kong-listed technology companies through the Stock Connect channel [1] - The index focuses on high-growth technology sectors, reflecting the overall performance of quality technology companies [1] - Other sectors such as Hong Kong dividends, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also considered scarce compared to A-shares and are worth attention in the second half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Current southbound capital inflow momentum is recovering, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since July, southbound capital inflow has accelerated, with inflow momentum rebounding to the mean plus one standard deviation level [1] - The proportion of southbound buy transactions has risen to a high level, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - The ongoing AI industry transformation is expected to drive Hong Kong technology stocks as a mid-term investment theme [1] - Recent breakthroughs in domestic large models have led to increased southbound allocation towards Hong Kong technology stocks [1] - Easing of US-China trade tensions and relaxation of technology export controls are anticipated to accelerate the iteration of domestic large models and AI application deployment [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Hong Kong stocks with scarce asset advantages, including dividends, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are also worth attention in the second half of the year [1] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), focusing on high-tech companies in information technology and healthcare sectors [1] - The index adopts a growth investment style, providing investors with an effective tool to participate in the development of the Hong Kong technology industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Link C (015740) [1]

Group 1 - In Q2 2025, actively managed equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in their portfolios rising to 20% [1] - The concentration of holdings among actively managed public funds decreased, indicating a shift towards mid and small-cap stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The investment strategy involved increasing allocations to both growth assets like pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors, as well as dividend-paying assets such as non-bank financials and banks [1] Group 2 - Passive index funds also saw continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 280 billion yuan flowing in during Q2 2025, although at a slower rate compared to Q1 [2] - The total inflow through the Hong Kong Stock Connect for public funds in the first half of 2025 reached nearly 200 billion yuan, with a projected total for the year between 300 billion and 450 billion yuan [2] - The potential for further inflows remains significant, with an estimated theoretical allocation space of about 300 billion yuan for actively managed public funds [2] Group 3 - The momentum for southbound capital inflows is recovering, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares in the second half of the year [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to become a key focus, driven by advancements in AI and easing of trade restrictions between China and the US [3] - Other sectors such as high-dividend stocks, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also highlighted as areas of interest for investment in the latter half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is the decline in the risk-free interest rate, which will lead to an overall increase in the valuation of A/H shares [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Valuation Logic - The main contradiction in market expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to the decline in discount rates, particularly the risk-free interest rate [2]. - The high opportunity cost over the past three years has hindered investors' willingness to enter the market [2]. Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical examples from Japan and the United States show that when interest rates fall to a certain level, investor interest shifts from fixed-income products to stocks and equity products [3]. - In China, each major market rally has been accompanied by a decline in risk-free interest rates, leading to increased capital inflow into the stock market [4]. Current Market Conditions - The current environment indicates that the conditions for a new round of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market are forming, driven by the decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - The anticipated decline in risk-free rates will likely lead to a broad-based increase in valuations across A/H shares, benefiting both blue-chip and growth stocks [5]. Future Outlook - The research suggests a strategic bullish outlook on China, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the shift in the main contradiction affecting market expectations [2][5].