Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coke market is experiencing a shift in sentiment with the accumulation of positive factors, leading to intensified long - short competition and low - level wide - range oscillations. However, considering the potential recovery of coking coal supply after the safety month and long - term pressure on black metal terminal exports, the market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and coke futures may continue to fluctuate widely [5][34]. - For coking coal, the supply has been affected by safety inspections, environmental protection, and operational pressures during the safety month, and the price inversion of imported coal has curbed imports, alleviating the pessimistic outlook on the fundamentals. But with the end of the safety month in June and the expected increase in supply in July, the market has mixed factors, and coking coal futures are also expected to fluctuate widely [6][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations on June 25, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan, which is the fourth consecutive month of increased operations. The mid - term liquidity net investment has exceeded 300 billion yuan this month. The market expects the subsequent monetary policy to remain moderately flexible and strengthen support for the real economy [8]. - On June 25, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was 63.5 US dollars per ton, down 1.5 US dollars from the previous period. All 102,400 tons on offer failed to sell. Since the beginning of the year, all 11 auctions have failed, with a total of 537,600 tons unsold [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, flat - price) | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,150 yuan/ton | - 1.71% | - 5.74% | - 29.01% | - 41.03% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 865 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | - 1.65% | - 6.30% | - 20.13% | - 44.13% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | High | Low | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,387.5 yuan/ton | 1.46% | 1,396.5 yuan/ton | 1,345.5 yuan/ton | 34,007 | 4,246 | 51,275 | - 1,125 | | Coking Coal | - | 804.5 points | 0.75% | 805.0 points | 778.5 points | 839,404 | - 212,966 | 524,258 | - 9,292 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory trends of coke and coking coal, including those of independent coking plants, steel mills, ports, and mines, as well as other related production and demand indicators such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, and coking plant production [15][22][28] Market Outlook - Coke: On June 25, the main coke contract closed at 1,387.5 yuan/ton, with a 1.46% increase. The open interest decreased by 1,125 lots. Spot prices in Rizhao and Qingdao ports declined week - on - week. The market is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in June [5][34]. - Coking Coal: On June 25, the main coking coal contract closed at 804.5 points, with a 0.75% increase. The open interest decreased by 9,292 lots. The market has mixed factors, and with the expected increase in supply in July, it is also expected to fluctuate widely [6][35].

最近沃勒、鲍曼这些美联储大佬接二连三放话"7月可能降息"，连鲍威尔在国会都松了口。现在期货市场押注年内降息60个基点，比一周前又多押了15个 基点。道理很简单：降息预期一升温，债券价格就涨，收益率自然往下掉，交易员算的就是这个账。 第二股：中东停火+油价"神助攻" 特朗普突然宣布伊朗以色列停火，国际油价唰地跌了，通胀压力暂时缓解。再加上美国消费者信心数据爆冷，市场马上觉得"经济降温"剧本要上演，资金 就往美债里钻，推着收益率往下走。 老铁们，我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打20年，专做中长线的老炮儿。最近美债市场可有点热闹——交易员砸了3800万美金押注10年期收益率跌到 4%，这事儿得掰开了揉碎了聊。咱今儿就说说，这4%的坎儿背后，到底藏着哪些门道？ 先看交易员咋出牌：真金白银押注"跌跌不休" 上周五到周一，8月到期的10年期美债看涨期权突然火了，光权利金就涌进3800万美金。啥概念？就像一群老江湖集体买保险，赌收益率从现在4.3%跌到 4%。要是真跌到位，那可是自打4月特朗普搞关税突袭以来的最低位，直接把5月涨到4.6%的那波猛劲儿给"掰弯"了。 更有意思的是，周一有笔1000万的大单，直接锁定了行权价11 ...

2025年6月23日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 812.0 | 798.0 | 14.0 | 1.75% | | | 原木2509 | 797.5 | 794.0 | 3.5 | 0.44% | | | 原木2511 | 794.0 | 791.5 | 2.5 | 0.32% | | | 7-9价差 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 10.5 | | | | 9-11价差 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | 18.0 | 6.5 | 11.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -62.0 | -48.0 | -14.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -47.5 | -44.0 | -3.5 | | | | 11合约基差 | -44.0 | -41.5 | -2.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 730.0 | 730.0 | 0 | ...

2025年6月20日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 美两周内决定是否攻击伊朗,原油波动持续,近期博弈难度较大,建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1697.63点，较上期上涨4.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1536.84点，较上期下跌7.94% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）2908.68点，较上期上涨33.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1307.92点，较上期上涨16.4% 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）2230.99点，较上期下跌31.55% | | 6月13日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格2088.24点,较上期下跌152.11点 | 6月13日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1844USD/TEU, 较上期上涨10.62% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1243.05点，较上期上涨7.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线4 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's cautious signals led to significant volatility in the gold market [1] - Powell indicated a potential 50 basis point rate cut in 2025, but future cuts in 2026 and 2027 would be limited to 25 basis points each year, reducing expectations for rapid monetary easing [1] - Following Powell's remarks, spot gold prices fell to approximately $3375.10 per ounce, a decrease of 0.57% from the previous day [1] Group 2 - Powell emphasized the Fed's close monitoring of inflation data, predicting a rise in the inflation rate to 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3] - The U.S. Treasury reported a nearly fourfold increase in customs tariff revenue in May, indicating that tariff costs are being passed on to consumers, which typically supports gold's anti-inflation properties [3] - Despite inflation pressures, the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts has exerted downward pressure on gold prices, with analysts noting that gold needs to break the $3400 resistance level to reverse its short-term decline [3] Group 3 - In the precious metals market, there is a divergence in capital flows, with silver prices dropping by 1.5% to $36.70 per ounce, while platinum rose by 4.3%, reaching its highest level since February 2021 [4] - Goldman Sachs noted that the movements in silver and platinum are primarily driven by speculative funds, lacking solid fundamental support, while gold's price is more influenced by macroeconomic policies and inflation expectations [4] - The gold market faces conflicting signals: the Fed's cautious stance and a strengthening dollar create short-term pressure, while inflation risks from tariffs and signs of economic slowdown provide potential support for gold prices [4]

沪铜小幅飘红，美联储利率决议悬而未决，多空博弈下未来价格将如何运行？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

3300 点，是大 A 近年来反复难破的关口，今年终于稳稳破掉了。 但如今，压力位似乎又来到了 3400 点。 当前市场围绕 3400 点整数关口的拉锯行情引发广泛关注。 为何这一位置成为多空博弈的焦点？主力资金持续在此区间放量震荡的意图何在？今日市场再度 呈现缩量上涨态势，投资者该如何看待这一信号？ 一系列市场疑问亟待梳理，我们今天透过盘面特征给大家讲一讲。 上周， A 股波动的轨迹大概就是 " 涨一天、跌一天 " 的脉冲式走势，让绝大部分散户难受得不 行。 这种剧烈震荡背后存在三重关键因素： 一是套牢盘压力 ， 3400 点区域临近 5 月 14 日由券商、银行板块共振形成的 3417 点阶段性 高点，该位置形成后次日市场即低开低走，随后在 5 月 23 日以中阴线完成 " 倒 V 型 " 调整， 累计了大量套牢筹码； 二是筹码结构松动 ，端午节后市场的连续上涨呈现缩量特征，这种在投资者犹豫情绪中推进的涨 势，导致持仓筹码稳定性不足，稍有震荡便易引发抛压； 三是获利回吐压力 ，前期上涨使得低位建仓的资金积累了可观收益，一旦市场出现波动，获利了 结行为将进一步加剧短期震荡。 作为市场人气的风向标，证券板块具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices showing fluctuations and a slight increase in trading activity [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium carbonate futures opened at 60,600 yuan/ton and reached a high of 62,100 yuan, with a closing increase of 1.68% [1] - Overall market inventory increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, while downstream inventory decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons [1][2] Group 2: Production and Supply - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 891 tons to 17,471 tons, with specific increases in spodumene, mica, and brine lithium production [2] - June production is expected to rise by 9.4% to 78,900 tons due to the resumption of operations by some companies [2] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Sentiment - The sentiment among traders is showing signs of improvement, with a continuation of bottom-fishing in the spot market [1] - The price of Australian lithium ore has slowed its decline, indicating resistance at the mining level [1] - The current price level is seen as a potential bottom, with increased volatility expected due to market speculation [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 低位震荡 | 供应压力仍存，焦煤再次走弱 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 氛围难言乐观，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：低位震荡 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing fluctuations in gold prices driven by geopolitical risk sentiments and the resulting market dynamics between buyers and sellers [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions are creating a persistent risk-off sentiment among investors, influencing gold trading strategies [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the current market conditions for traders looking to position themselves effectively in the gold market [1] Group 2: Trading Strategies - The TTPS team is providing analysis on how traders should approach the current gold market amidst the ongoing volatility [1] - The focus is on developing strategies that can capitalize on the fluctuations caused by the geopolitical landscape [1]