（来源：新黑金日志） 2、回补1074-1084缺口之后，出阳线反弹。因为从小时级别看，只要出大阳线，就容易形成小时级别的 底背离。 来源：新黑金日志 焦煤即将破位 2025年12月7日星期日 之前还觉得焦煤期货走势会往上突破，没想到周五的白天加晚上，焦煤主力都快把焦煤干到接近破位的 边缘。从焦煤加权走势看，周五是空头主力主动进攻，导致焦煤跌幅扩大。螺纹基本面没啥变化，但是 焦煤的阴线就很大，很吓人的那种。 从焦煤01合约的走势看，在1050这个位置坚守了8个交易日，但是周五的晚上失守，那么1000的这个位 置再破的话，会很打击多头的信心。 从焦煤05合约的走势看，在1130这个位置坚守了好久，但是周五晚上的失守阵地，下一个支撑看1080附 近。 自从8月份上涨以来，焦煤走势是偏大震荡。接下来下周的走势分两种情况说: 1、直接破位。直接失守1070之后，每天持仓增加，成交量增加，空头主力准备发动一波下跌行情。 宏观还是看出口，11月份制造业采购经理指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 11月制造业景气水平有一定改善，得益于外部环境的变化。11月 PMI 数据最大的惊喜就是新出口订单 ...

Group 1 - The ethylene glycol market continues to show a weak trend, with spot trading around 3820 yuan/ton and a stable basis [1] - The total production capacity utilization rate for ethylene glycol in China is 62.67%, down 1.25% week-on-week [1] - The external market for ethylene glycol is experiencing a downward trend, with recent transactions around 448-452 USD/ton [1] Group 2 - Downstream users are showing low purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a quiet polyester market [3] - An increase in ethylene glycol supply is expected, with stable imports and a slight rise in demand, maintaining a balanced supply-demand situation [3] - Short-term pressure on ethylene glycol prices is anticipated due to increased inventory and port arrivals [3]

Report Summary on Shipping Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market experiences a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, with the price chart showing wide - range fluctuations. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuations. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of the spot freight rate. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Indexes - **SCFIS**: On December 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 948.77 points, down 14.4% from the previous period. On November 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period, and the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period [3]. - **NCFI**: On December 1st, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period. On November 28th, the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [3]. - **CCFI**: On November 28th, the China Export Container Freight Index (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Economic Indicators - In the Eurozone in October, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix Investor Confidence Index was with a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [3]. - In China in October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in enterprise production and operation activities [4]. - In the US in October, the preliminary S&P Global Services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4]. 3.3 Market and Contract Information - On December 3rd, the main contract 2602 closed at 1540.1, up 0.92%, with a trading volume of 22,300 lots and an open interest of 35,000 lots, a decrease of 1354 lots from the previous day [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: The main contract rebounds after a retracement, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to try a long position in the main contract with a light position. When the price chart shows a small plunge, it is not recommended to add more positions or hold losing positions. Set stop - loss levels [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [5]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high points, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the next direction [5]. 3.5 Contract Rules Adjustment - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

12月2日，近期市场动向显示，XRP与比特币正接近关键技术支撑位，而纳斯达克十一月价格表现则显 现回调压力。FPG财盛国际认为，当前行情处于多空博弈的关键阶段，投资者应密切关注价格行为，以 应对潜在波动。对于XRP而言，本周价格下跌超过6%，触及约2美元的关键支撑位。自去年十二月以 来，该位置已成为市场多空力量交锋的重要节点，多次出现下影线拉长的周K线，显示卖压在该区域逐 渐减缓。FPG财盛国际认为，如果该支撑位被有效突破，可能引发投资者集中抛售，从而导致XRP价格 出现更大幅度回落。相反，若价格企稳于该位置并成功突破自七月以来的下降趋势线，约2.50美元附 近，XRP的中期上涨格局可能重新得到确认。 比特币方面，当前价格约为87092美元，正徘徊在被认为是近年来最重要的支撑组合附近，包括自2023 年起形成的上涨趋势线、100周简单移动均线以及从2022年熊市底部到近期创纪录高点的38.2%斐波那 契回调位。FPG财盛国际认为，这一支撑区域的重要性不言而喻，一旦价格跌破，短期下行风险显著上 升，可能首先回落至今年4月的波段低点约74500美元，进一步下探则可能逼近2021年牛市高点附近的 70000美元水平 ...

Group 1 - Nickel prices are currently around $14,850 per ton, with Shanghai nickel futures rising by 1,130 to 117,260 yuan per ton, and stainless steel futures increasing by 80 to 12,455 yuan per ton, indicating a stable upward trend in the market [1] - The spot market for stainless steel remains stable in the morning, with strong price support in the afternoon, driven by bullish sentiment as the month-end approaches, leading to increased market competition [1] - In the 304 stainless steel segment, cold-rolled resources are reported in the range of 12,200-12,500 yuan, while hot-rolled resources are around 12,100 yuan, with trading activity becoming cautious after a brief improvement [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with trading activity slowing down despite a potential reversal in short-term trends, indicating that the remaining days of the month will be challenging [2]

| 碳酸锂日评20251124:仍具回调空间 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 90960.00 | 98880.00 | 85720.00 | -7,920.00 | -5- | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 98980.00 | 87220.00 | -7,960.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 91160.00 | 99160.00 | 87360.00 | -8,000.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 91160.00 | 99160.00 | 87060.00 | -8,000.00 | | | 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 98980.00 | 87360.00 | -7,960.00 | 11 | | 碳酸锂期货 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 (元/吨) | 1137824.00 | 1595646.00 | 757432.00 | -457 ...

姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 11 月 14 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量 合计 109.17 万吨，周环比降 0.51 万吨，30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-34 元/吨，环比降 12 元/吨。下游 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 236.88 万吨，周 环比增 2.66 万吨。库存方面，本周产业链焦炭库存总体去化，最新一期 统计口径内总库存为 879.35 万吨，周环比小幅下降 7.7 万吨，较去年同 期库 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Fan Yuan International (02516) experienced a significant surge on November 13, 2023, reversing a previous downward trend, with a peak increase of 64.7% during the trading session [1]. Market Performance - The stock opened 13.73% higher at HKD 0.58, reached a maximum of HKD 0.84, and closed at HKD 0.66, marking a 29.41% increase from the previous trading day [1]. - Trading volume surged to 15.32 million shares, approximately 6.9 times higher than the previous day, with a total transaction value of HKD 11.21 million, an increase of about 10.3 times [1]. News Impact - On November 12, the company announced a plan to place up to 156 million new shares at a price of HKD 0.455 per share, representing a discount of approximately 10.78% from the closing price on November 12 [4]. - The total proceeds from the placement are expected to be around HKD 70.98 million, with a net amount of approximately HKD 69.62 million, of which at least HKD 60 million will be used to enhance existing logistics operations [4]. Market Sentiment - The market interpreted the share placement positively, viewing it as a means to strengthen operational capacity and enhance market competitiveness, rather than a negative dilution of existing shareholder equity [4]. - The placement represents about 16.67% of the company's enlarged issued share capital, which is not seen as excessively dilutive [4]. Technical Analysis - Since mid-August, the stock has been trading within the range of HKD 0.5 to HKD 0.7, establishing a solid bottom [5]. - On November 13, the stock broke through this range and several moving averages, indicating a potential bullish trend that attracted trend-following investors [5]. Trading Dynamics - Despite the initial surge, the stock faced selling pressure, with a net outflow of HKD 11.46 million on November 13, indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears [7]. - The stock's price did not effectively break through previous resistance levels, and trading volume decreased significantly in the afternoon session [9]. Future Outlook - The gap formed on November 13 (HKD 0.51 - 0.58) remains unclosed, and if supported by trading volume in the next 1-2 trading days, it could serve as a short-term support level [11]. - The stock is expected to stabilize between HKD 0.65 and HKD 0.70, with potential upward movement towards HKD 0.80 - 0.85 if volume remains above 50% of the November 13 level [11]. - Investors should be cautious of the "good news priced in" risk, as the recent price increase was primarily driven by the placement announcement, and further gains may require additional positive news [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a pattern of strong supply and demand. However, there is an expectation that the power demand may peak and weaken at the end of the year. The downstream market is adopting a wait - and - see attitude towards high prices, leading to a sluggish spot market. It is expected that the game between bulls and bears will intensify, and the price fluctuation risk of lithium carbonate will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, and the operating range is expected to be between 71,000 and 91,000 [6][96] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate first declined and then rose, with a weekly decline of 0.07%. The trading volume decreased to 3.47 million lots (-180,000), and the open interest decreased to 491,000 lots (-194,000). The basis was at a discount of 1,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In October, China's lithium spodumene production was 7,350 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, while lithium mica production was 7,700 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5%. In September, the import volume of lithium concentrate reached 520,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.6% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0%. In August, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China reached 128,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.6% [13][17][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In November, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 30,164 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In November, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 45%, with a scheduled production of 29,970 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In September, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,526 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.7% [40] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 88,990 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. In November, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 341,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 46% [43] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 19,234 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. In September, the import volume increased while the export volume decreased [44] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In November, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 49%, with a scheduled production of 92,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. In September, the export volume increased slightly [53] 3.3.4 Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In November, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, with a scheduled production of 11,990 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, with a scheduled production of 13,585 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 75% [58] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In November, the scheduled production of electrolyte was 210,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year increase of 28.0%. In September, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [63] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. The loading volume was 76 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 39.4%. Last week, the production of ternary power cells was 7.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%, and the production of lithium iron phosphate power cells was 22.41 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [66][67] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume was 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [72] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In November, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries was 55.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 31.2%. In September, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.45 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 25.0%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.34 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 46.3% [78] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In September, the production of Chinese smartphones was 122.75 million units, a month - on - month increase of 22.3% and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 30.98 million units, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [81] 3.5 Cost - The prices of lithium ore, lithium spodumene concentrate, and lithium mica all decreased. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by 17 US dollars per ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 60 yuan per ton [86] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 3,405 tons. Structurally, the inventory of smelters decreased by 1,336 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,280 tons, and other inventories decreased by 790 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 740 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 663 tons [91][92] 3.7 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the fundamentals show strong supply and demand, but there are concerns about end - year demand weakening. The game between bulls and bears will intensify, and price fluctuations will increase. Production enterprises can consider high - level selling hedging, with an expected operating range of 71,000 - 91,000 [96]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tug-of-war in the gold market, highlighting the shifting roles of institutional and retail investors amidst significant price volatility and the upcoming U.S. inflation data as a critical factor influencing market direction [5][9][11]. Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing a significant shift, with institutions seemingly exiting and retail investors entering, although the roles of both groups are fluid and change with market conditions [5][6]. - On October 23, an analyst suggested a short position on gold at $4102 per ounce, with a stop-loss at $4108 and a target at $4060, indicating a strategy of small losses for larger gains [5]. - However, the market reacted differently, with gold prices rising and breaking through key resistance levels, prompting the analyst to switch to a long position at $4104 per ounce [6][7]. Price Movements - On the same day, gold prices exhibited extreme volatility, closing at $4138.42 per ounce, reflecting a 1.81% increase [7]. - The options market showed a buildup of put options below $4100 per ounce, while call options above this level were quickly cleared, indicating a market under pressure and poised for a breakout around $4155 per ounce [8]. Inflation Data Impact - The upcoming U.S. September CPI data is seen as a pivotal variable for the gold market, with expectations of an increase from 2.9% to 3.1% and core CPI remaining at 3.1% [11]. - Market expectations suggest a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, which could be influenced by the CPI data [11]. Potential Scenarios - Three potential scenarios based on the CPI data are outlined: 1. If CPI increases ≤0.2%, expectations for rate cuts may rise, pushing gold to $4175 per ounce [12]. 2. If CPI increases ≥0.5%, rate cut expectations may diminish, leading gold to drop below $4095 per ounce [12]. 3. If CPI is around 0.3%, gold may oscillate between $4095 and $4145 per ounce, creating opportunities for options strategies [12]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current gold market and past situations, such as early 2013, where conflicting factors led to unpredictable price movements [15]. - The upcoming CPI data is positioned as a potential catalyst for breaking the current market equilibrium, with implications for both gold and the U.S. dollar [15][16].