Core Viewpoint - The consensus emphasizes the critical importance of central bank independence in maintaining economic stability and effective monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee highlights that a broad agreement exists on the necessity of central bank independence [1] - The independence of central banks is viewed as essential for ensuring that monetary policy is not influenced by political pressures [1] - Maintaining this independence is crucial for fostering trust in the financial system and promoting long-term economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of China in reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has reached a 12-year low, and the implications of this move on U.S. monetary policy and the broader global financial landscape [1][6][20]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Monetary Policy - China sold $8.2 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, bringing its total holdings down to $757 billion, the lowest level in 12 years [6][20]. - The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, despite pressure from President Trump, who expressed frustration over the decision [6][10]. - The market reacted negatively to China's bond sell-off, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise and increasing volatility in the dollar index [6][20]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Central Bank Independence - Trump's aggressive stance towards Powell included public threats and insults, highlighting the tension between political pressures and central bank independence [3][10]. - Powell emphasized that monetary policy would not be influenced by short-term political considerations, reinforcing the independence of the Federal Reserve [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve Act protects the chairman from being dismissed due to policy disagreements, underscoring the importance of maintaining a professional approach to monetary policy [12][14]. Group 3: Global Financial Trends - A significant portion of global central banks, 43%, plan to continue purchasing gold, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar [16]. - Other countries, such as Japan and the UK, have adjusted their U.S. Treasury holdings, with Japan buying $3.7 billion and the UK purchasing $28.4 billion in April [18][20]. - The trend of reducing U.S. Treasury holdings reflects a broader shift in the global financial landscape, with countries diversifying their reserves to mitigate risks associated with U.S. debt [24][26]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts by China - China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings from $1.65 trillion in 2013 to $757 billion, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying its investments [24][26]. - The country has simultaneously increased its gold reserves to 73.45 million ounces and is promoting the internationalization of the yuan, which is seen as a forward-looking strategy [24][26]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves from 73% to 58% reflects a significant and irreversible trend towards "de-dollarization" [26].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, reaffirmed the independence of the Russian central bank [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the central bank's autonomy in its operations and decision-making processes [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of protecting democracy and academic freedom during his speech at Princeton University's graduation ceremony, directly responding to recent policies from the Trump administration that target higher education [3][4] - Powell described American universities as "critical national assets" and highlighted their role in scientific innovation and economic vitality, urging graduates to actively defend democratic values [3][4] - The ongoing conflict between Powell and Trump has escalated, with Trump criticizing Powell for slow interest rate cuts and suggesting potential legal actions to remove him, despite the Supreme Court ruling that the president cannot unilaterally dismiss the Fed chairman [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is currently maintaining interest rates due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicating that any policy adjustments are unlikely until trade war impacts become clearer [4] - Powell's speech is seen as a declaration of defense for institutional integrity, revealing a dual crisis facing the U.S. financial and academic systems: interference in central bank independence threatens monetary policy credibility, while suppression of higher education could undermine national innovation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Musalem, emphasizes that the Federal Reserve is not a political organization and its independence is crucial for anchoring inflation expectations [1] Group 1 - The independence of the central bank is highlighted as a key factor in stabilizing inflation expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Macklem, expressed strong support for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, emphasizing the sanctity of central bank independence [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Central Bank Independence - Macklem stated that the independence of central banks is "sacred and inviolable," highlighting its importance for the benefits it brings to the public in Canada and other countries [1] - He criticized any actions that threaten the independence of central banks, indicating that such behavior is undesirable [1] Political Pressure - The comments were made in response to pressures from former President Trump, who has publicly criticized Powell, labeling him as a "big loser" and a "fool," while suggesting that interest rates should be lowered [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the independence of the central bank should not be threatened [1]

企业推迟投资决定，家庭推迟消费开支决定。 在这样的形势下，美联储无法采取"先发制人"的行动。 贸易谈判可能会实质性地改变当前局面。 3、通胀+就业：潜在通胀形势不错。 1、货币政策：美联储无需急于调整利率政策。 美联储掌握的一切都支持FOMC按兵不动，比如信心数据与开支数据之间的关系已经式微。 2、特朗普关税：特朗普政策对通胀的影响可能是暂时性的。 如果特朗普关税维持现状，美联储无法在（价格+就业这两大）政策目标上取得进展。 数据可能会轻而易举地满足美联储（价格+就业）目标中的一个。 4、央行独立性： a、特朗普的表态"根本不会影响我们的工作"。 b、我从来没有要求与哪届总统会面，难以想象我会要求与美国总统会面。 ...

在美联储与总统特朗普关系紧张之际，4月25日，备受关注的美联储主席潜在继任者、特朗普盟友凯文· 沃什（Kevin Warsh）在华盛顿出席"三十国集团"（Group of 30）活动并发表演讲。 然而这份警示终被漠视。如今的美联储已深度介入美国政府的各项经济决策，其角色定位愈 发模糊。在我看来，这种"全天候、全方位"的权力扩张，正在引发宏观经济政策的系统性 偏差。当央行试图扮演"经济总规划师"而非专注本业时，职能错位导致双重恶果：既未能履 行维持价格稳定的法定职责，又助推了联邦支出的无序膨胀。更严重的是，这种越位表现正 侵蚀着货币政策独立性的正当性基础。 当前美国财政正走向危险境地，特别是疫情后的支出狂潮堪称失控。在此过程中，美联储难 辞其咎：经济寒冬时鼓动财政发力，却在复苏期对财政纪律保持缄默。货币政策制定者本应 谨守本分，若执意对财政政策置喙，至少应保持立场的连贯性。 作为量化宽松（QE）政策的设计参与者，我始终认为其在危机时刻的应急价值。2008年我 们将利率压至零区间，创新采用资产购买工具为冻结的市场注入活水——这在当时是必要且 明智的抉择。 作为前美联储理事和曾被特朗普考虑担任财政部长的人选，沃什被 ...

TradeMax发现在全球经济局势错综复杂的背景下，美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔在国际舞台上的发声，不仅 关乎美国货币政策走向，更引发了各界对央行独立性的深度探讨。 有知情人士透露，在世界各国财长会议上，杰罗姆・鲍威尔着重强调了央行保持独立于政治影响的必要 性。他认为，唯有如此，央行才能将全部精力聚焦于维持通胀稳定以及推动高就业率这两大核心目标上。 上周五，鲍威尔在国际货币基金组织的会议中，面向众多决策者和财政部长发表讲话，言辞恳切且极具说 服力，全力捍卫央行的独立性。他这番坚定的表态，赢得了现场观众热烈的掌声，后续发言的同行们也纷 纷发表了同样激昂且支持央行独立性的言论。面对外界的关注，美联储发言人选择不对此事发表评论。 鲍威尔此番强调央行独立性的言论，有着特殊的背景。在其发言之前，美国总统特朗普在近段时间多次于 公开场合抨击鲍威尔。特朗普在社交媒体上直接称鲍威尔为 "重大输家"，并且再度强烈要求美联储降低利 率。此外，特朗普甚至还公开提及解雇鲍威尔一事，这些言论迅速在华尔街引发了强烈震动，投资者们忧 心忡忡，担心央行的独立性会因此受到威胁。尽管特朗普随后表示并无解雇美联储主席的意图，但此前的 一系列言论已经造 ...