北京时间周四凌晨两点，美联储如期宣布进行2025年的首次降息。 与市场预期一致，联邦公开市场委员会将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，调整至4.00%-4.25%。 （来源：美联储） 如同鲍威尔8月讲话那般，经严格审核的决议也通过措辞变化着重体现美国劳动力市场风险，同时也点出通胀上行的两难局面。 （来源：美联储决议对比） 与7月类似，9月决议也出现了反对票——周二刚来美联储兼职的白宫经济顾问米兰要求降息50个基点。 随政策决议一同发布的点阵图也显示，美联储官员们目前的中位预期是2025年还有两次各25个基点的降息。不出意外，点阵图上也出现了 刺眼的"白宫降息呼声"。 决议指出，近期指标显示，今年上半年经济活动的增长有所放缓。就业增长速度减慢，失业率小幅上升但仍处于低位。通胀有所上升，并 保持在相对较高的水平。委员会关注双重使命两方面的风险，并判断就业方面的下行风险有所增加。考虑到风险平衡的变化，委员会决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 （美联储官员对2025年底时的政策利率展望"点阵图"） 经济预期方面，较6月时的预期，美联储官员们整体预期GDP增速小幅抬高（2025年1.4%→1.6%、2026 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new phase of gradual easing by cutting interest rates by a quarter-point, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25% [1][2]. Economic Projections - Inflation is projected to rise to 3.1%, unchanged from previous estimates, while GDP growth has been upgraded to 1.6% from 1.4% [5]. - The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.5%, up from the current rate of 4.3% [7]. Fed's Dual Mandate - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating a shift in focus towards protecting jobs rather than solely combating inflation [2][8]. - The FOMC statement highlighted that downside risks to employment have risen, with 11 out of 12 Fed voters supporting the rate cut [3]. Dot Plot Analysis - The updated dot plot suggests approximately two more quarter-point cuts by the end of the year, but there is significant inconsistency in the forecasts among Fed members [4][10]. - Six members opposed the cut, indicating a hawkish sentiment within the committee [5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market reactions were mixed, with the Dow up about 0.50%, the S&P flat, and the Nasdaq down modestly, reflecting uncertainty among investors [9][10]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.076%, and the dollar strengthened by about 0.3% [10]. Future Outlook - The Fed's future actions will depend on incoming economic data, particularly the next CPI and PCE reports, which will be critical for the market's bullish case [10][11]. - There is a belief that if inflation stabilizes or decreases while job losses remain moderate, the Fed may proceed with additional rate cuts as indicated in the dot plot [11][15].

人民财讯9月18日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，失业率仍处于低位，但已有所上升；通胀最近有所上 升，仍略微偏高。 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The median forecast from the Federal Reserve indicates a further rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025 [1] - There is a divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with varying views on the extent and timing of potential reductions [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points is in line with market expectations [1] - The median prediction suggests a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by 2025, with differing opinions among officials on the number and magnitude of future cuts [1] Economic Forecasts - The Federal Reserve maintained its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts for the year, projecting a median inflation rate of 3% and an unemployment rate of 4.5% [1] - Economic growth expectations have been revised upward from 1.4% to 1.6% for the year [1] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the DXY dollar index experienced a sharp decline, while non-USD currencies rose collectively [1] - Spot gold prices surged, surpassing $3700 per ounce, and U.S. stock markets initially rose before retreating, indicating increased bets on at least one more rate cut this year [1]

Economic Growth Expectations - The FOMC members project a median GDP growth of 1.6% for 2025, 1.4% for 2026, and 1.8% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median growth rate of 1.8% [2] - The central tendency for 2025 GDP growth is between 1.4% and 1.7%, with a range of 1.3% to 2.0% [2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The median unemployment rate is forecasted to be 4.5% for both 2025 and 2026, 4.3% for 2027, and 4.2% for 2028, with a long-term median of 4.0% [3] - The central tendency for 2025 unemployment rate is between 4.4% and 4.5%, with a range of 4.2% to 4.6% [3] Inflation Trends - The median forecast for the PCE price index year-on-year growth is 3.0% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028, with a long-term median of 2.0% [4] - The core PCE inflation forecast (excluding food and energy) is 3.1% for 2025, 2.6% for 2026, 2.1% for 2027, and 2.0% for 2028 [4] Interest Rate Path - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at the end of 2025, 3.4% for 2026, and 3.1% for both 2027 and 2028, with a long-term median of 3.0% [5] - The central tendency for the 2025 interest rate is between 3.6% and 4.1%, with a range of 2.9% to 4.4% [5] Comparison with Previous Forecasts - Compared to the June 2025 forecast, the median predictions for GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and federal funds rate remain unchanged, indicating stable assessments by FOMC members [6] Uncertainty and Risk Assessment - FOMC members assess that the uncertainty regarding GDP growth and inflation for 2025 is "similar to or higher than" the past 20 years [7] - Some members view the risks for GDP growth and unemployment as "roughly balanced," while inflation risks are seen as "roughly balanced" or "tilted upward" [7]

like a. >> Big I can't tell you how excited I am. >> When was the last time we talked about the dynamics.>> I'm in. I'm I'm on the edge of my seat. >> Exactly.All right. Let's talk more about it. Joining us is Claudia Sardine, New Century Advisors chief economist and a former fed economist.Claudia, that that will be interesting, right. We'll see who dissents. We'll see how divergent the dot plots are.What are you looking for. >> Yeah. And I want to underscore that even in normal times, like we would expect ...

Fed expected to cut rates for the first time this year later this afternoon. Here with us now at Post 9 is former Goldman Sachs president, current IBM vice chair Gary Conn. Gary also served as the director of the National Economic Council during President Trump's first term.Welcome back. >> Thanks for having >> great to have you, especially on a day like today. Is there scope for the market to be disappointed if if Powell isn't dovish enough to meet all their great expectations of more cuts.>> Look, there's ...

特朗普的关税政策虽然引得不少政客的不满，但实际上并未对他们的日常生活造成影响，只不过这些后果是由美国普通民众"买了单"。 最近几个月以来，美国的不少民众都发现他们的日子过得好像越来越难了。 想要找到一份贴心的工作要和更多人竞争、上超市购物需要斟酌再三、月底的账单还总是超出自己的预期…… 这个由他们自己选举出来的总统发起的关税战，似乎并没有让他们过上更好的生活，美国群众也开始不答应了。 前言 在他开始对全世界挥舞起关税大棒之后，这个曾经飞出去的"回旋镖"也是再次飞回并且狠狠的砸在了他的脸上。 根据劳工部的统计，美国8月份的非农就业人数仅仅增加了2.2万人，和七月份预期的7.5万人相去甚远。 对于美国来说，这个数据可以说是非常的惨淡，和以往正常时期动辄十多万人的新增就业无法较比。 除了新增就业人数少之外，美国6月份的新增就业人数竟然还是"负值"，这就代表着他们裁员的人数是要比就业人数更多的。 这一数字要比美国多家公司以及研究机构所预计的数字都要高，也加剧了不少人对美国经济前景的担忧。 要知道，这个数据仅仅是截止到3月份，而特朗普的关税政策是从4月初才开始的。 失业率上升，找份工作太难了 美国在36万亿债务的高压之 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The consensus in the market anticipates a rate cut in September, but the policy dynamics remain complex due to labor market cooling and persistent inflation concerns[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to provide guidance on future easing through the dot plot and economic forecasts, rather than committing to a clear rate path[5] - The dot plot is expected to shift downward with increased dispersion, but the median may not indicate the market's expectation of three rate cuts[5] Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Labor Market Insights - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 are likely to be slightly revised down due to weaker-than-expected labor market data and significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls[5] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slowly, with most officials maintaining a judgment of two rate cuts within the year[5] - The core PCE inflation forecast may be slightly adjusted downwards compared to June's pessimistic outlook, reflecting moderate price transmission from tariffs[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Reactions - The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts within the year, which may lead to increased sensitivity to data fluctuations[9] - Political pressures and the potential for a Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality could significantly impact inflation and monetary policy decisions[8] - The labor market's deterioration rate and inflation trends will be critical indicators for the Federal Reserve's future actions[8]

#数据 国家统计局发布8月份分年龄组失业率数据：全国城镇不包含在校生的16-24岁劳动力失业率为18.9%，较上月上升1.1个百分点。（2023年12月数据公布以来最高）全国城镇不包含在校生的25-29岁劳动力失业率为7.2%，上升0.3个百分点。全国城镇不包含在校生的30-59岁劳动力失业率为3.9%，持平。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 国家统计局发布7月份分年龄组失业率数据：全国城镇不包含在校生的16-24岁劳动力失业率为17.8%，较上月上升3.3个百分点。全国城镇不包含在校生的25-29岁劳动力失业率为6.9%，上升0.2个百分点。全国城镇不包含在校生的30-59岁劳动力失业率为3.9%，下降0.1百分点。 https://t.co/yaFRzkARbN ...