Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of innovative financial products on consumer behavior, particularly in the context of home appliance upgrades in rural areas [1][2] - It emphasizes the role of government policies and financial institutions in facilitating consumer spending through programs like the "old-for-new" appliance exchange [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Behavior and Financial Solutions - A resident in Jiangxi Province successfully upgraded his home appliances using a flexible installment plan offered by Postal Savings Bank, which alleviated the financial burden of a nearly 30,000 yuan budget gap [1] - The innovative "zero collateral, flexible installment" credit card service provided by the bank allows consumers to enjoy government subsidies and discounts, making it easier to afford new appliances [1] Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Plans - The Postal Savings Bank's efforts have supported nearly 100 families in upgrading their appliances this year, contributing to local appliance sales exceeding 10 million yuan [2] - The bank plans to expand its "scene + finance" model to other consumer areas such as home decoration and education, aiming to enhance rural revitalization and improve the quality of life for urban and rural residents [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of an upward movement exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [38] Core Insights - April exports showed strong resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, driven primarily by robust demand from non-US regions [11][1] - The HVAC industry experienced significant sales growth in Q1 2025, with exports outperforming domestic sales due to preemptive stocking by overseas distributors amid tariff uncertainties [2][11] - The domestic appliance sector is expected to benefit from strong domestic demand and continued high demand from emerging markets, which is likely to sustain export growth [5][36] Summary by Sections Export Data - In April, China's exports (in USD) increased by 8.1% year-on-year, continuing a positive growth trend [11] - Major trading partners included ASEAN, Europe, and the US, with export values of 1.48 trillion, 1.21 trillion, and 1.07 trillion respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +12.6%, +6.1%, and -1.5% [11] HVAC Industry Performance - The HVAC industry saw a total sales volume of 58.873 million units in Q1 2025, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, with exports at 31.521 million units (+24.5%) outpacing domestic sales [12][15] - Central air conditioning sales reached 36.1 billion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year, with both domestic and export markets showing growth [12][15] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.00% and the home appliance index increased by 3.3% in the latest week [16] - Key stocks showed significant gains, with Springlight Technology up 46.41% and Greer up 16.79% [16] Raw Material Prices - Recent trends indicate a slight decline in copper and aluminum prices, with copper down 0.15% and aluminum down 0.12% in the last week [20][21] - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by 9.21%, while aluminum has decreased by 5.32% [21] Real Estate Data - In March 2025, new residential construction area decreased by 24.3% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector [27][30] - The total area under construction and completed also showed declines of 10.0% and 14.8% respectively [27][30] Investment Recommendations - Focus on domestic demand and subsidy-driven growth in the white goods sector, with specific attention to companies like Gree Electric, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home [36] - Consider opportunities in the black goods sector, which continues to see structural upgrades, and small appliances that are recovering from previous challenges [36]

证券研究报告 可选消费 24/25Q1 换新显效，关注两个方向 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 09 日│中国内地 专题研究 24 年家电换新提振内销，25Q1 板块面临关税挑战 2024 年家电板块（申万）累计上涨约 25.4%，涨幅居行业前列，表现明显 优于上证综指与沪深 300。得益于内需"以旧换新"政策红利以及出口补库， 全年板块收入同比+5.6%，归母净利润+7.1%，盈利能力稳健。25 年 1-4 月 家电换新维持拉动力，但出口面临关税挑战，板块承压回调约 1.6%。展望 25Q2，政策持续发力、内需具备支撑，叠加前期高基数效应减退，预计板 块将呈结构性修复态势，机会主要来自内销需求回暖与出口预期修复两端。 白电：尽显格局优势 空调/冰洗板块 24 年收入分别同比+4%/+7%，换新政策驱动下，头部优势凸 显，龙头企业借助价格策略和结构升级，保障盈利能力提升，归母净利分别 同比+13%/+7%。25Q1 换新拉动力维持（空调/冰洗收入同比+17%+14%）， 且随政策深入、费用优化，归母净利分别同比+33%/+33%。展望 25Q2，内 销基数回落、618 备货启动叠加政策催化，白电仍为板块内最具 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant transformation in China's home appliance market from a downturn in the first half of 2024 to a recovery driven by government subsidies for old-for-new exchanges in the second half, resulting in a total retail sales growth of 6.4% year-on-year [2][30] - In the first half of 2024, the retail sales of the home appliance market (excluding 3C) were 415.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, with June alone seeing a dramatic drop of 14.2% [2] - The fourth quarter saw a remarkable retail sales increase of 24.4% year-on-year, reaching 294.1 billion yuan, largely due to the implementation of the old-for-new policy [2] Group 2 - Major players in the small home appliance sector, such as Joyoung, Supor, and Bear Electric, faced varying degrees of revenue decline, with Joyoung experiencing its largest revenue drop in five years [3][9] - The overall revenue for the small appliance segment among these three companies was over 28.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.28%, with an average revenue of 9.6 billion yuan per company [7] - The average net profit margin for the small appliance sector was 9.21%, with Joyoung's net profit margin being the lowest at 1.38% [11][13] Group 3 - The online market share for various home appliance categories shows that air conditioners lead with a 34.5% share, while washing machines and electric cookers also hold significant positions [4][5] - The small appliance market is characterized by low research and development investment, with all three companies having R&D expenditure ratios below 5%, indicating a lack of innovation [20] - The global small appliance market is projected to reach 310 billion dollars by 2028, with kitchen appliances expected to account for a significant portion of this growth [26][30] Group 4 - Companies are exploring international markets for growth, with Bear Electric's overseas revenue increasing by 80.81% in 2024, while Supor's overseas sales also saw a rise [26][29] - Despite the growth in overseas markets, challenges remain, as Joyoung's international sales dropped significantly by 27.97% in 2024 [29] - The government plans to expand the old-for-new subsidy program to include more small appliance categories in 2025, which could provide a boost to the industry [30]

Group 1 - The consumption market during the "May Day" holiday saw a significant increase in the replacement of old appliances, with a 110% year-on-year growth in customer traffic at Suning.com stores and a 57% increase in old-for-new appliance orders [2] - High-end appliance sales surged, with air conditioners from brands like COLMO and Casarte increasing by 280%, and sales of washing machines over 12 kg rising by 155% [2] - The demand for mid-to-high-end appliances has experienced a concentrated explosion, with a 79% increase in sales of appliances priced over 10,000 yuan [2] Group 2 - The rise in consumer health awareness and the pursuit of convenient lifestyles have driven the rapid adoption of smart health appliances, with sales of new air conditioning systems, air purifiers, and clothing care machines increasing by 158%, 131%, and 199% respectively during the holiday [3] - Smart home appliances, such as smart locks, robotic vacuum cleaners, and dishwashers, have become popular among younger consumers, with over 50% of purchases made by those born in the 1990s and 2000s [3] - The integration of home appliance and home decor has become a trend, with over 90% of sales for built-in refrigerators and washing machines, and significant year-on-year growth in sales of slim range hoods and integrated kitchen appliances [3]

Group 1 - The core message indicates that since the implementation of the "old-for-new" appliance policy in August 2024, consumers have purchased over 100 million appliances, with more than 40 million purchased in 2025 alone, highlighting a strong consumer trend towards domestic products [1] - The "May Day" holiday is approaching, and the consumer market is experiencing a continuous increase in activity, with Chongqing Suning launching the "May Day Renewal Week" to offer significant discounts on over 100 appliance models [1][3] - The promotional activities include a commitment to "genuine products, genuine subsidies, and genuine 50% off," with a focus on providing a wide selection of products at competitive prices [3] Group 2 - During the "May Day" holiday, Chongqing Suning is actively participating in local government consumption promotion activities, creating unique experiences that combine city characteristics with quality consumption [4] - The company plans to host over 100 free interactive experiences, such as music concerts and food tasting events, across various stores to enhance customer engagement [4] - Additional services during this period include a 30-day price guarantee, a 7-day no-reason return policy, and personalized assistance from appliance consultants to ensure a seamless shopping experience [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 54.63 CNY for the next 6 months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.32 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.6%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 130 million CNY, down 14.0% year-over-year. The outlook remains positive as the company continues to expand its product categories and overseas markets, which are expected to drive revenue growth [1][2]. - The demand for kitchen small appliances has been boosted by the domestic appliance replacement policy, with online sales increasing by 22% year-over-year in Q1. Key product categories such as coffee machines, soybean milk machines, and blenders have seen rapid sales growth [1][2]. - The company is enhancing its overseas product development and marketing capabilities, actively expanding its international channels, which is expected to contribute to growth. Additionally, the consolidation of Roman Smart in July 2024 is anticipated to provide incremental revenue [1]. Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross profit margin increased by 0.9 percentage points year-over-year, but the net profit margin decreased by 2.8 percentage points due to increased R&D and management expenses, as well as a reduction in tax benefits [2]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 increased by 170 million CNY year-over-year, primarily due to revenue growth, with cash received from sales increasing by 200 million CNY [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading online small appliance company, capturing significant market share in the long-tail small appliance market. It is actively moving towards product refinement and enhancing brand strength, with expectations of improved profitability as consumer demand in the small appliance sector recovers [2][4]. Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.95 CNY, 2.14 CNY, and 2.37 CNY, respectively. The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 28 times [2][9]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 52.3 billion CNY in 2025 to 60.7 billion CNY in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from 3.1 billion CNY to 3.7 billion CNY over the same period [9][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in its first-quarter 2025 performance, driven primarily by the strong demand and price increase of refrigerant products, despite challenges in other chemical product segments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.52% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 809 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 160.64% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.22% [1]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was 789 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 173.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.71% [1]. Group 2: Refrigerant Product Performance - The average selling price and external sales volume of refrigerants in Q1 2025 were 37,500 yuan/ton and 69,800 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 58.08% and 4.14% [1]. - The company’s refrigerant business saw substantial profit growth, which significantly improved the overall revenue and profit structure [1]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The refrigerant market is experiencing an upward trend in prices, supported by supply constraints due to quota systems and improved industry competition [2]. - As of April 28, 2025, the average domestic market prices for key refrigerants (R22, R32, R125, R134a) increased by 9.1%, 12.8%, 7.1%, and 10.6% respectively since January 2, 2025 [2]. - The export prices for refrigerant R32 showed a gradual alignment with domestic prices, enhancing the company's performance certainty [2]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is positioned favorably within the fluorochemical industry, benefiting from the upward cycle of second and third-generation refrigerants [3]. - Future net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 4.908 billion, 5.660 billion, and 6.656 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 150.47%, 15.32%, and 17.60% respectively [3]. - The company maintains a strong recommendation for investment, highlighting its cost advantages and strategic capacity expansion [3].

Core Viewpoint - Supor (002032.SZ) reported mixed results in its Q1 earnings, with revenue and net profit growth but a significant decline in operating cash flow by 44%, raising concerns among investors [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Supor achieved total revenue of 5.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 496.85 million yuan, up 5.82%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 484.66 million yuan, growing by 4.98% [2][4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 583.80 million yuan, a decrease of 44.03% compared to the previous year, attributed to a reduction in cash received from sales of goods and services [2][4]. - The cash received from sales in Q1 was 4.89 billion yuan, down approximately 7% from 5.26 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [2]. Management Actions - Three key executives, including the CFO and board secretary, plan to continue reducing their holdings in the company, which has raised investor concerns due to their history of significant sell-offs, particularly at high stock price points [1][5]. - In 2024, these executives also engaged in substantial stock sales, with specific figures indicating a pattern of ongoing divestment [5]. Industry Outlook - The domestic kitchenware and small appliance industry faces both challenges and opportunities in 2025, transitioning from a pure growth phase to one where both growth and market saturation coexist [3]. - Supor aims to upgrade its product structure and explore new categories and scenarios for growth, supported by government policies promoting appliance upgrades [3]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in its export business, collaborating with foreign trade clients to enhance product development and competitiveness [3]. Production and Supply Chain - Supor operates seven manufacturing bases in China and Vietnam, focusing on cost reduction through automation and supply chain optimization [7]. - Future growth in the export business will depend on the organic growth of key foreign clients, with the company leveraging its manufacturing scale and responsiveness to provide competitively priced products [7].

数据来源：国家统计局等 版式设计：蔡华伟 栾茂欣说："花洒头积了白花花一层水垢，更别提热水器的水管和储水箱了。" 水质不高，家电寿命受影响，随着乡亲们生活水平提高，希望用自来水的呼声越来越高。去年7月，西 夏区农水局为芦花台园林场社区二队接通自来水管网。"拧开水龙头，就流出来清亮、干净的自来水。 今年中央一号文件提出："推动农村消费品以旧换新，完善废旧家电等回收网络。"当自来水入户遇上家 电以旧换新，对促进农村消费会发生怎样的"化学反应"？换新过程中又遇到哪些问题？让我们跟随记 者，看看一个发生在宁夏农村的家电换新故事。 ——编 者 "现在换热水器合适，以旧换新有补贴" 用了15年的太阳能热水器，栾茂欣一直没舍得换。 这台锈迹斑斑的热水器，热水储量越来越小，"洗澡洗一半，热水就用光了。"栾茂欣住在宁夏银川市西 夏区芦花台园林场社区二队，她请过几次维修工，才发现是热水器的储水箱堵满水垢，很难清理。 问题就出在"水"上面。长期以来，村民用井水。芦花台园林场社区这一带地下水资源丰富，水井的水被 机泵抽送到水塔里，再送到各家各户。每户每年交100元水费就够了。 井水便宜，但卫生条件不比自来水，未经沉淀过滤和多重净化， ...