来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇1月27日｜美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示："韩国国会没有履行与美国达成的协议。我和韩国总统李在明于2025年 7月30日达成了一项对两国都有利的协议，并在2025年10月29日我访问韩国期间重申了这些条款。为什么韩国国会至今仍未 批准该协议？由于韩国国会尚未通过我们之间的历史性贸易协定，而这是他们的权力所在，我特此宣布将对韩国汽车、木 材、药品以及所有其他商品的对等关税从15%提高到25%。" ...

美国总统特朗普26日在社交媒体上宣布，由于韩国国会仍未批准两国政府此前达成的贸易协议，美国对 韩国汽车、木材、药品的进口关税以及其他"对等关税"的税率将从15%提高至25%。 ...

"对等关税"落地以来，美国再通胀的风险可控，至今尚未成为货币政策和资本市场的主要矛盾。关税的通 胀效应为何持续低于预期、会否成为2026年"被低估"的风险？ 一、对等关税的"通胀效应"：这次为何系统性低于预期？ 2025年4月以来，美国通胀开始反弹，但读数持续弱于预期。 2025年，美国"再通胀"的动力主要来自于核心 商品分项，而核心服务继续延续降温态势。2025年12月，美国CPI同比仅为2.7%，4月低点为2.3%；环比角 度来看，2025年4月以来，美国通胀环比多数弱于预期。 关税的通胀效应有迹可循，但传导路径并非脉冲式的，而是阶梯式的。 从"超额"通胀及季节性来看，关税 的通胀效应有迹可循；但是，关税的传导路径并非脉冲式的，Cavallo（2025）指出，关税对美国CPI的推升 幅度约为0.65个百分点。近几月以来，关税传导进度甚至有所停滞。 关税传导的阶梯特征与关税税率的路径有关。 截止到2025年10月，美国有效关税税率仅为12.4%，低于 15.7%的理论税率。运输时滞、抢进口因素一度阻碍有效税率提升，但关税豁免、进口国别转换或限制税率 提升空间。剔除国别转换因素后，有效税率提升空间仅为2个百分 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，如果最高法院在对等关税问题上做出有利于他的裁决，他准备偿还债务，并 且"可能"会发放一些红利。 美国总统特朗普表示，如果最高法院在对等关税问题上做出有利于他的裁决，他准备偿还债务，并 且"可能"会发放一些红利。 特朗普说："如果我们能打赢在最高法院的官司，那就太好了，我们将偿还债务，我们可能还会发一些 红利" "我们希望能从最高法院得到一个有利的裁决。如果不行，我们会另想办法，"他说 责任编辑：刘明亮 特朗普说："如果我们能打赢在最高法院的官司，那就太好了，我们将偿还债务，我们可能还会发一些 红利" "我们希望能从最高法院得到一个有利的裁决。如果不行，我们会另想办法，"他说 责任编辑：刘明亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may exhibit a "high then low" characteristic in 2026, with the first half being influenced by tariff transmission and tax cuts, and the second half potentially experiencing a deflationary trend [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Effects on Inflation - Since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," the risk of re-inflation in the U.S. has been manageable, and it has not become a major issue for monetary policy or capital markets [2]. - The inflation effect of tariffs has been systematically lower than expected, with the core inflation driven mainly by core goods while core services continue to cool down [2]. - As of October 2025, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. was only 12.4%, below the theoretical rate of 15.7%, indicating limited room for tariff increases due to various factors [3]. Group 2: Cost Accounting of Tariffs - Companies have been absorbing more tariff costs, which has helped keep inflation pressures manageable. As of September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers bore 6%, 37%, and 57% of the tariff costs, respectively [4]. - The uncertainty of tariff policies and weakening domestic demand in the U.S. have constrained price increases, with companies delaying price hikes due to excess imports [4]. - By the fourth quarter of 2025, the momentum for companies to pass on tariff costs has increased, with expectations for further transmission in 2026 [4]. Group 3: Future Inflation Risks - The report predicts that if the tariff transmission rate approaches 70%, inflation may show stronger "stickiness," with core PCE year-on-year expected to be 2.8%, 2.6%, and 2.5% under different transmission rate scenarios of 90%, 70%, and 50% respectively by the end of 2026 [5]. - Potential risks beyond tariffs include cyclical and metal inflation on the upside, and productivity improvements and tariff exemptions on the downside [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely linked to inflation risks, with expectations of a pause in rate cuts in the first half of 2026, followed by 1-2 rate cuts in the second half as deflation begins [5].

"对等关税"落地以来，美国再通胀的风险可控，至今尚未成为货币政策和资本市场的主要矛盾。关税的通 胀效应为何持续低于预期、会否成为2026年"被低估"的风险？ 一、对等关税的"通胀效应"：这次为何系统性低于预期？ 2025年4月以来，美国通胀开始反弹，但读数持续弱于预期。 2025年，美国"再通胀"的动力主要来自于核心 商品分项，而核心服务继续延续降温态势。2025年12月，美国CPI同比仅为2.7%，4月低点为2.3%；环比角 度来看，2025年4月以来，美国通胀环比多数弱于预期。 关税的通胀效应有迹可循，但传导路径并非脉冲式的，而是阶梯式的。 从"超额"通胀及季节性来看，关税 的通胀效应有迹可循；但是，关税的传导路径并非脉冲式的，Cavallo（2025）指出，关税对美国CPI的推升 幅度约为0.65个百分点。近几月以来，关税传导进度甚至有所停滞。 关税传导的阶梯特征与关税税率的路径有关。 截止到2025年10月，美国有效关税税率仅为12.4%，低于 15.7%的理论税率。运输时滞、抢进口因素一度阻碍有效税率提升，但关税豁免、进口国别转换或限制税率 提升空间。剔除国别转换因素后，有效税率提升空间仅为2个百分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court has delayed a decision on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump, maintaining the status quo and causing significant financial losses for U.S. importers, estimated at over $16 billion per month [1][6]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - Trump's tariffs have resulted in over $16 billion in monthly losses for U.S. importers since their implementation [1][6]. - By February 20, the total tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act could exceed $170 billion, according to Bloomberg's economic analyst Chris Kennedy [5]. Group 2: Legal Proceedings - The Supreme Court has not yet announced a ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs, with the next possible decision date set for February 20, following a four-week recess [2][5]. - There have been over 1,500 preemptive claims submitted to the U.S. International Trade Court by companies affected by the tariffs, indicating a significant legal response from the business community [5]. Group 3: Political Context - Trump's tariffs are also being used as leverage in geopolitical strategies, such as pressuring European nations regarding Greenland, with proposed increases in tariffs from 10% to 25% on certain countries [6]. - Despite potential unfavorable rulings from the Supreme Court, experts suggest that Trump may continue to use tariffs as a tool for geopolitical ambitions, indicating a persistent strategy regardless of legal outcomes [6].

Group 1 - The Trump administration has conducted at least 626 overseas airstrikes since taking office, surpassing the 555 airstrikes during Biden's four-year term [1] - The U.S. has announced its withdrawal from at least 70 international organizations and mechanisms, including significant agreements like the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization [1] - Trump's approval rating has dropped to a new low of 38% to 41%, marking an 11 percentage point decline from the beginning of his term [1] Group 2 - There have been over 30,000 protests and demonstrations across the U.S. since the start of Trump's second term, with the largest single-day protest involving approximately 6.5 million participants [1] - Trump has signed 229 executive orders in his first year of the second term, the highest number since Franklin D. Roosevelt [1] - The Trump administration has faced at least 583 domestic lawsuits related to various issues, with many cases reaching the Supreme Court [1] Group 3 - Over 1,000 companies have filed lawsuits against the Trump administration regarding tariffs, with around 40 legal documents submitted to the Supreme Court [1] - The U.S. national debt has reached $38.45 trillion, with a per capita debt of $112,000, exceeding earlier projections [1] - In 2025, there were 14,682 gun violence deaths in the U.S., including over 1,200 minors, with 40 mass shooting incidents reported [1]

Group 1: Tariffs and Global Market Dynamics - The concept of "reciprocal tariffs" continues to disrupt global capital markets, reflecting the interplay between major power competition and asset pricing [2][17] - The implementation of these tariffs by the Trump administration has led to significant inflationary pressures in the U.S., with household food costs rising and a technical bear market in U.S. stocks [2][17] - China's strategic response, including precise tariff adjustments and supply chain optimization, has stabilized its export share and accelerated high-end manufacturing [2][18] Group 2: Revaluation of Chinese Assets - The systematic revaluation of Chinese assets in 2025 is driven by deepening institutional reforms, technological breakthroughs, and an upgraded global role [3][19] - Institutional reforms are reshaping the capital market ecosystem, transitioning from a "scale-oriented" to a "quality-first" approach, enhancing policy consistency and attracting long-term capital [3][19] - Technological advancements, particularly in AI and high-end manufacturing, are creating a closed loop of "technological breakthroughs—commercial realization—capital feedback," leading to a systemic increase in asset profitability [3][19][20] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of gold reached historical highs in 2025, reflecting a resurgence of "gold faith" in the capital market amid a restructuring of the global financial order [4][21] - The strength of gold is attributed to cracks in the U.S. dollar credit system, with political influences on Federal Reserve decisions undermining the dollar's status as a global public good [4][21] - The rise of gold tokens and the structural differentiation in investor behavior highlight the contrasting logics of "certainty defense" versus "growth speculation" [4][21] Group 4: Class Stabilization Funds - The introduction of class stabilization funds in China represents a significant governance innovation aimed at redefining capital market functions and correcting market failures [5][22] - These funds are designed to mitigate risks associated with asset price volatility, providing a dual protective mechanism through substantial capital reserves and market interventions [5][22] - The timely actions of these funds have effectively restored investor confidence and shifted market sentiment from pessimism to rational value assessment [5][22] Group 5: Inclusivity in Capital Markets - The concept of "capital market inclusivity" emerged as a core consensus in 2025, facilitating a multi-dimensional breakthrough in the "technology-industry-finance" ecosystem [6][24] - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has enabled the acceptance of unprofitable hard-tech companies, aligning capital with new productive forces [6][24] - Regulatory clarity and market-oriented principles have balanced government intervention with effective market operations, enhancing the capital foundation for industrial upgrades [6][24] Group 6: ETF Market Growth - The ETF market in 2025 reached nearly 60 trillion yuan, becoming the largest in Asia and symbolizing a significant ecological transformation in capital markets [7][25] - The rise of ETFs reflects an evolution in market efficiency, with their low management fees making them accessible to younger and smaller investors [7][25] - ETFs have also played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations through strategic interventions by central financial authorities [7][25] Group 7: The Rise of "Han Wang" - The emergence of "Han Wang" as the new stock king in A-shares signifies a shift from consumption-driven to innovation-driven economic paradigms in China [8][27] - The rapid growth and profitability of Han Wang highlight the transition of the AI chip industry from technological challenges to commercial success [8][27] - This shift reflects a broader trend of capital markets transitioning from supporting traditional industries to empowering new productive forces [8][27] Group 8: Rare Earths as Strategic Assets - Rare earths have become a core focus in A-shares, driven by the convergence of resource revolutions and technological changes [9][29] - China's advancements in extraction technology and its dominance in global refining capacity underscore the strategic importance of rare earths in the tech revolution [9][29] - The complete industrial chain of rare earths positions China as a stabilizing force in key sectors like AI and renewable energy, enhancing its competitive edge [9][29][30] Group 9: Emotional Consumption Trends - "Emotional consumption" has emerged as a new mainline in A-share consumer sectors, reflecting a shift from material satisfaction to emotional value [10][30] - This trend is characterized by structural changes in consumer demand, with companies that resonate emotionally with consumers experiencing significant revenue growth [10][30] - The capital market's ability to capture this trend through differentiated valuation systems is crucial for the sustainable growth of the consumer sector [10][30] Group 10: Narrative Trading - "Narrative trading" has become a central symbol of ecological transformation in A-shares, intertwining behavioral finance with asset pricing [11][31] - This phenomenon has led to shifts in household asset allocation, with increased investments in thematic products driven by collective narratives [11][31] - The rise of narrative trading highlights the need for enhanced investor education to maintain market stability amid potential valuation bubbles [11][31]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, suggested that a meal consisting of "a piece of chicken, a piece of broccoli, a corn tortilla, and one other item" can be affordable and align with the latest dietary guidelines, which has drawn significant criticism for being out of touch with the realities faced by ordinary Americans [1][5]. Group 1: Public Reaction - Rollins' comments were made during an interview with NewsNation, where she was questioned about how average Americans can afford to adjust their diets according to the updated food pyramid [3]. - The suggestion that a meal can cost around $3, based on over 1,000 simulations, has been met with ridicule, particularly from Democratic lawmakers who argue that the government is disconnected from the struggles of everyday citizens [5][8]. - Representative Ted Lieu highlighted that grocery prices have seen their largest increase in three years due to Trump's tariff policies, questioning the feasibility of Rollins' meal budget suggestion [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The rising grocery prices have been a significant issue for American consumers, forcing many to alter their shopping habits as they face increased costs across the board [9]. - The OECD's economic outlook report indicates that U.S. tariffs are impacting the global economy and consumer prices, further complicating the financial situation for American households [9].