Group 1 - The CBOT soybean futures market experienced a slight decline, with support sought amid lower U.S. soybean crop ratings and trade negotiation news [1] - As of July 20, the U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating was reported at 68%, below the market expectation of 71% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean meal futures price index has shown performance of -3.07% over the past year, -6.46% over the past two years, and +31.02% over the past three years [1] Group 2 - The soybean meal ETF (159985) is the only listed agricultural product ETF in the domestic market, showing a 0.30% increase today after four consecutive days of gains [1][2] - The soybean meal ETF has long-term investment value in asset allocation, inflation hedging, and roll yield, with low correlation to the stock market [2] - Soybean meal is the largest production variety among 12 oilseed meal feed types, indicating a strong spot market foundation [2]

Macro News - US President Trump stated he does not plan to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite new criticisms and not ruling out the possibility of dismissal [1] - Trump indicated that the US may maintain the tariff rates set for Japan and could reach a trade agreement with India, although he does not expect a broader agreement with Japan [1] - The EU is prepared to impose tariffs on US goods worth €72 billion (approximately $83.6 billion) if trade negotiations with Washington fail [1] Economic Outlook - The latest Federal Reserve economic report shows an increase in economic activity, but the outlook remains "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with rising price pressures due to increased import tariffs [2] - The New York Fed President Williams noted that current monetary policy is appropriate, allowing officials to observe the economy before taking further action, and warned that the impact of trade tariffs on the economy is just beginning [2] Gold Market Insights - Gold assets have gained market favor, with the RMB gold price rising 28.19% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 index and reaching historical highs [2] - The traditional framework of "real interest rates determine gold prices" is changing, with real interest rates having reduced predictive power since 2022 [3] - Central banks' large-scale gold purchases, challenges to dollar credit due to sanctions and fiscal deficits, and frequent geopolitical conflicts are driving gold's price increase beyond traditional models [3] - Gold's low correlation with equity assets provides excellent diversification benefits, enhancing the risk-return profile of stock-bond portfolios [3] - Given the current global macroeconomic uncertainties, gold is expected to play a strategic role in asset allocation, offering inflation and risk protection [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the complex motivations behind wealthy individuals holding multiple properties, emphasizing that real estate serves as a crucial component of their asset allocation strategy [1][5][12] - It highlights the stability and reliability of rental income from real estate investments, which provides a consistent cash flow despite market fluctuations [1][6][12] Group 1: Investment Logic - Real estate is perceived as a "hard currency" due to its high preservation rate, with core urban residential properties maintaining a value retention rate of 98.7% in 2024 [2] - The rental yield in first-tier cities remains stable between 2.5% and 3.2%, which, while modest, is valued for its reliability [1][2] - Investors view real estate as a "ballast" in their diversified portfolios, providing stability during market volatility [2][10] Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The ongoing urbanization process supports housing demand, with the urbanization rate reaching 67.5% by the end of 2024, indicating a steady influx of population into cities [5] - The government's "housing is for living, not speculation" policy framework suggests that property prices will not experience extreme fluctuations, benefiting long-term holders [5][12] Group 3: Tax and Wealth Preservation - Holding real estate offers tax advantages compared to frequent buying and selling, as selling may incur significant personal income tax liabilities [6] - Real estate serves as a means of wealth preservation, especially in uncertain economic times, as it provides a tangible asset that can safeguard capital [6][10] Group 4: Long-term Value and Legacy - Wealthy individuals often purchase properties not just for personal use but also for future generations, as real estate is easier to pass down and less likely to cause disputes [7] - The investment philosophy of these individuals focuses on long-term strategic value rather than short-term gains, reflecting a more patient and calculated approach to wealth accumulation [7][12] Group 5: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Despite a cooling market, structural opportunities remain in core urban areas and high-quality districts in strong second-tier cities, which are still considered scarce resources [8][12] - The article suggests that real estate will continue to be a significant pillar of the Chinese economy, with a clear intention from policymakers to stabilize the market [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" Act may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices, but in the long - term, due to factors such as the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, economic slowdown, high inflation, and concerns about the US dollar's credit, the anti - inflation property of precious metals will be prominent, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise [5] - The Act's passage has led to an increase in the US debt ceiling, and the deficit may further expand, which also affects the US bond yields and the Fed's monetary policy [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tariffs & Trade Negotiations - The announcement of more tariffs by Trump has increased risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to precious metals. However, the market has not reacted strongly to the new US tariffs in August as the policies are still under negotiation, with many uncertainties [3] Economic Data - The overall impact of US economic data on precious metals is small. The US CPI data in June was in line with or slightly deviated from expectations, with the overall CPI and core CPI showing certain trends [3] Geopolitical Situation - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the possible breakdown of the Gaza cease - fire negotiation, the deadline for the Iran nuclear deal, and Trump's planned statement on Russia, support the precious metals market [3][4] "Big and Beautiful" Act and Debt - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act has pushed up the US debt ceiling, and the federal government's fiscal deficit is expected to increase by about $4.1 trillion in the next ten years, and may expand to $5.4 trillion if some tax - cut measures are extended [8] Federal Reserve's Monetary Situation - As of July 9, the Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse - repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury's cash account decreased. The Treasury plans to rebuild its cash reserve in a more moderate way [11] Inflation Expectations - In June, consumers' one - year inflation expectations decreased to 3%, while three - year and five - year inflation expectations remained stable at 3% and 2.6% respectively [17] US Treasury Yields - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may push up the ten - year US Treasury yield by 50 - 80 basis points, and the 10 - year term premium may rise above 1% [20] Financial Pressure Index - As of July 4, the US OFR financial pressure index increased compared to the previous week, with changes in its sub - indicators [29] Commercial Bank Loans - As of July 2, the weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases increased, with different trends in various types of loans [32] Retail Sales - As of July 8, the US Redbook commercial retail sales weekly annual rate increased, indicating strong consumer spending [34] Mortgage Applications - As of July 9, the US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates increased, and the MBA mortgage application activity index rose by 9.4% [37] Unemployment Data - As of the week ending July 5, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased to a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims increased to the highest level since the end of 2021 [40] International Bond Yield Differences - The differences in long - term Treasury yields between the US and Germany (Japan) have changed, with the 10 - year yield difference between the US and Germany (Japan) showing an upward (downward) trend [43] Exchange Rates - The US dollar is strongly supported by economic data. The euro and the pound have depreciated against the US dollar due to factors such as trade tensions and weak economic performance [47] Volatility Index - The volatility of the US S&P 500 and the gold ETF index has increased [48] Gold Market - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures has increased month - on - month. The total gold inventory of COMEX and SHFE has decreased. The domestic gold futures and spot prices are in a reasonable range, and the gold basis and the spread between near - and far - month contracts are also in a reasonable range [53][56][61] Silver Market - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures has increased month - on - month. The total silver inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE has increased. The domestic silver futures and spot prices are in a reasonable range, and the silver basis and the spread between near - and far - month contracts are also in a reasonable range [72][75][80] Precious Metal Price Ratios - The gold - to - silver ratio has been repaired recently. In the short - term, it may remain stable, but in the long - term, it may have an upward driving force. The gold - to - oil ratio and the gold - to - copper ratio are above the 90% quantile of the past five years, and short - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [89][92]

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Investment Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the gold investment industry, particularly focusing on gold ETFs and their performance in the current market environment [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Trends**: The speaker has shifted their investment style significantly over the years, with a current focus on gold, particularly gold ETFs, which now constitute over 90% of their portfolio [2]. 2. **Volatility and Inflation Hedge**: Gold is perceived as a less volatile asset compared to others, providing a hedge against inflation and helping to diversify investment portfolios [3][6]. 3. **Correlation with Risk Assets**: Historically, gold has shown a negative correlation with risk assets like the NASDAQ index, but recent trends indicate a divergence in this relationship, complicating the assessment of gold as a risk or safe-haven asset [4][5]. 4. **Economic Indicators**: The discussion highlights the importance of U.S. real interest rates and Federal Reserve actions in determining gold prices, with a focus on how these factors influence investor behavior [4][10]. 5. **Central Bank Purchases**: Central banks, including those in Turkey and Poland, have increased their gold purchases significantly, indicating a shift in strategy away from U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over U.S. debt risks [12][13]. 6. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The supply of gold is relatively stable, while demand is driven by various factors, including investment in gold bars, ETFs, industrial uses, and jewelry, particularly in Asia [20][21][22]. 7. **Market Behavior**: The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to speculative trading and macroeconomic news, with a noted impact from anticipated changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policies [9][10][25]. 8. **Investment Recommendations**: For new investors, gold ETFs are recommended as a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to gold, with a focus on their liquidity and lower entry costs compared to physical gold [30][31][32]. Additional Important Insights - **Cultural Shifts**: There is a growing interest in gold among younger investors, driven by cultural factors and the appeal of gold jewelry, which has seen a resurgence in popularity [29]. - **Long-term Perspective**: The long-term view on gold remains positive, with its attributes as an inflation hedge and a stable asset becoming increasingly relevant in the context of a weakening U.S. dollar [16][17][25]. - **Regulatory Developments**: Recent regulatory changes in China encouraging insurance companies to invest in gold could further enhance market liquidity and support gold prices [26][27]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the gold investment landscape, highlighting both current trends and future outlooks.

Group 1 - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports has caused market volatility, pushing gold prices to a peak of $3,374 per ounce, but subsequent statements indicate a more open stance on trade negotiations, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1] - As of June 30, China's gold reserves have increased for eight consecutive months, totaling 73.9 million ounces, while the London gold price has seen a 25.84% increase in the first half of the year, despite a decline from the historical high of $3,500 per ounce to around $3,300 [3] - The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 91:1, significantly deviating from the historical average of 40-70:1, suggesting potential opportunities for silver and other precious metals to catch up [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are expected to increase the yield on dollar-denominated assets, reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, but concerns about inflation may enhance gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - Gold prices are currently consolidating in the $3,300-$3,350 per ounce range, with a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating potential upward movement if prices break through $3,350, targeting $3,400 and $3,450 subsequently [5] - Gold盛贵金属 has established a transparent trading ecosystem, with a unique transaction coding system for trades over 0.1 lots, allowing real-time verification, which enhances trust and security in trading [6] Group 3 - Gold盛贵金属 offers intelligent alert tools for short-term traders and dynamic leverage adjustments for long-term investors, facilitating asset appreciation during market fluctuations [8] - The company employs a bank-level fund isolation model for client funds, ensuring 100% compliance with independence standards and faster withdrawal times compared to industry norms [8] - Gold盛贵金属 has been recognized as the "Most Trusted Platform in Asia-Pacific" for six consecutive years, with a user recommendation rate of 98%, reflecting its strong reputation in the market [9]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing a delicate balance regarding its decision on future interest rate cuts as inflation continues to cool down [1] Inflation Trends - Overall inflation rate in June increased slightly to 2.0% from 1.9% in May, while core inflation remained stable at 2.3% [1] - Service sector inflation saw only a minor increase, providing some comfort to policymakers [1] Future Projections - The economist predicts that inflation will likely remain below 2% for most of the next two years, driven by expectations of falling oil prices [1] - The analysis suggests that the battle against inflation has largely been won, but this creates a challenging decision for the ECB regarding the end of the current easing cycle [1]

Group 1: Recent Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce to a new monthly low of $3,281, reflecting a weekly decline of over 3.5% due to easing tensions in the Middle East and market caution ahead of U.S. PCE inflation data [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have breached a critical support level of $3,295, with potential further declines to the $3,250-$3,270 range, and if this support fails, prices could drop to $3,120 [1] Group 2: Controversy Over Safe-Haven Status - Experts suggest that gold may gradually replace U.S. Treasuries as the preferred safe-haven asset post-April 2025, particularly as U.S. debt credibility is questioned and global central banks continue to accumulate gold [2] - Despite ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, gold prices have not risen but instead declined, partly due to market focus shifting away from geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3: Long-Term Investment Value - Gold is viewed as a hard currency that can be held long-term without risk of being trapped in losses, with historical examples showing profitability over a decade despite short-term fluctuations [3] Group 4: Central Bank Support - Global central bank net gold purchases are expected to reach a 56-year high in 2024, indicating strong institutional capital bets on long-term bullish trends for gold [4] Group 5: Investment Strategies - It is recommended that individuals allocate 5%-15% of liquid assets to gold, avoiding heavy positions to mitigate risks [5] - Preferred investment channels include bank gold bars with low processing fees and gold ETFs with strong liquidity and low fees, suitable for regular investment [6] - Channels to avoid include gold jewelry due to high premiums and paper gold or leveraged products due to high policy risks [7] Group 6: Timing and Operational Suggestions - Investors are advised to build positions gradually during dips, particularly around key support levels like $3,250 or during off-peak seasons [8] - Implementing a systematic investment approach by contributing a fixed amount monthly can help smooth out short-term volatility [9] - Setting strict stop-loss limits of 5%-8% is recommended to prevent significant losses [10] Group 7: Alternative Opportunities - Platinum and silver are highlighted as significant alternatives, with platinum experiencing a 60% increase this year, and both metals currently valued lower than gold [11] - A "new three gold" investment strategy combining gold ETFs, bond funds, and money market funds is suggested for young investors seeking a balance of stability and returns [12] Group 8: Market Divergence Perspectives - Bullish arguments for gold include the global debt crisis and the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, reinforcing gold's status as a ultimate safe-haven asset [14] - Bearish arguments cite delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tightening dollar liquidity, with technical patterns suggesting a potential drop to $3,100 [14]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a weak state, with prices fluctuating around 3332, and there is potential for a rebound if the market weakens further [2][4] - Long-term, gold remains a solid asset for inflation protection and risk aversion, despite pressures from geopolitical stability and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [2] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with a significant drop in prices and a critical resistance level at 3350, suggesting a continued weak outlook unless this level is breached [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market has stabilized after two days of decline, with Brent crude oil prices rising by 1.1% to $67.89 per barrel, and WTI crude oil increasing to $65.08 [5] - The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.23 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, indicates strong refinery demand and supports oil prices [5] - Technical analysis suggests a mixed outlook for oil, with short-term bearish trends but potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are surpassed [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing trend of companies accumulating Bitcoin amidst geopolitical tensions and market volatility, indicating a shift towards institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies [2][3][5] - Strategy, a prominent company, purchased 10,100 Bitcoin for approximately $1.05 billion between June 9 and June 15, raising its total holdings to 592,100 Bitcoin, solidifying its position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin [3][4] - Other companies, including Metaplanet, Remixpoint, The Blockchain Group, BitMine, and Green Minerals AS, have also announced significant Bitcoin purchases, reflecting a broader trend of institutional investment in the cryptocurrency market [3][5] Group 2 - The stock performance of companies holding Bitcoin has shown a premium recognition in the market, with Strategy's stock rising nearly 26% this year, partly due to its Bitcoin valuation being included in major indices like Nasdaq 100 [4] - The accumulation of Bitcoin by companies is seen as a strategy to hedge against macroeconomic risks and inflation, with Bitcoin being perceived as a new reserve asset akin to gold [4][5] - Companies are leveraging Bitcoin holdings to enhance market visibility and attract liquidity, creating a positive feedback loop between Bitcoin purchases and stock price increases [4][5] Group 3 - Some companies view Bitcoin as a strategic pivot to transform their business models, particularly those with stagnant growth, aiming to position themselves as "Web3 companies" [5] - The trend of institutional players accumulating Bitcoin may lead to a potential "institutional lock-up" in the market, reducing selling pressure and enhancing confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value [5][6] - However, the concentration of Bitcoin holdings among institutions raises concerns about liquidity and risk, as any significant sell-off by a major holder could have a substantial impact on the market [6]