期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. The positive factors have not subsided, but the supply remains high while the demand improvement is limited [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that the positive factors remain, leading to the high - level operation of the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holidays, international iron ore prices were weak. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to accumulate. Steel mills resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore increased from a low level. However, the improvement of steel mills' profitability was limited, and downstream demand was difficult to bear a significant production increase, restricting demand improvement. The relatively positive factor was steel mills' restocking. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals continued to decline, while miners' shipments reached a new weekly high for the year, with overseas ore supply being active at the end of the year. Even though domestic ore supply shrank seasonally, the overall ore supply remained high. The positive factors supported the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply was high and demand improvement was limited, resulting in weak fundamentals and a lack of upward driving force. The ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be noted [3]

2026 年 1 月 4 日 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采镍矿罚款，具体来看： 1）配额事件：印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减 至 2.5 亿吨镍矿配额。即便在镍铁转冰镍路径逐步出清的情况下，2024-2026 年印尼镍矿需求为 2.5、 2.8 和 3.0 亿吨，如果 2.5 亿吨的配额落地，矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预期扭转为紧缺， 并对存量的高库存形成冲击。不过，从印尼"下游政策"的角度来看，矿端立刻的"一刀切"，易于激化 与下游外资冶炼企业的矛盾，而且从往年来看，印尼的政策动态调整空间较大，2026Q1 将是跟踪政策落 地的重要窗口。不过，如果放眼到长周期，印尼长线防止过剩和偏挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿时代 主要为吸引冶炼投 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For soymeal, the market is expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to avoid holiday - related risks [1]. - For soybeans, investors are advised to hedge risks before the holiday and observe the market cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2605 closed at 4224 yuan/ton in the day - session, up 65 yuan (+1.56%), and 4237 yuan/ton in the night - session, up 33 yuan (+0.78%); DCE soymeal 2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton in the day - session, down 10 yuan (-0.36%), and 2771 yuan/ton in the night - session, up 3 yuan (+0.11%); CBOT soybeans 03 closed at 1060.75 cents/bushel, down 3.0 cents (-0.28%); CBOT soymeal 03 closed at 302.3 dollars/short - ton, down 1.2 dollars (-0.40%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soymeal (43%) was 3060 - 3140 yuan/ton, with different basis prices for different months; in East China, it was 3040 - 3140 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 3120 - 3200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soymeal was 20.37 million tons per day, compared with 5.07 million tons two days ago; the inventory was 110.22 million tons per week, compared with 105.63 million tons two weeks ago [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 30, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the clear production outlook of South American soybeans. Year - end closing will be the main theme in the market in the next few days. The market will focus on the weekly export sales report and position report on Wednesday. Private exporters reported selling 13.6 million tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 million tons to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 season. Soybean harvesting is underway in Brazil's Paraná and Mato Grosso states, and nearly 76% of soybean planting in Argentina has been completed [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral situation for the day - session's main contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [4].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周国内最新大豆库存环比大幅下降，但豆粕库存环比增加，且同比偏高。但一季 | | | | 度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。加上阿根 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 廷降雨再度低于正常水平，存在升水支持。但美豆周度出口数据持续恶化，美豆暂 | | ★ | | 难言企稳，因此豆粕看多逢低适量短多为宜，元旦假期做好仓位控制。关注美豆出 | | | | 口数据能否改善及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | 短线反弹 | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，库存压力缓解， | | ★ | | 比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月前 25 日出口数据环比增加，产量环比继续调减，12 月存在去库预期， | | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 昨日棕榈油收涨，关注月底最终数据。看多逢低参与，元旦假期做好仓位管理。 | | ★ | | ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 商 品 研 究 硅铁：多空资金博弈，偏强震荡 锰硅：多空资金博弈，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5750 | 7 4 | 232,982 | 230,640 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5706 | 7 4 | 24,541 | 46,161 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5942 | 8 0 | 262,830 | 278,271 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5948 | 6 0 | 108,988 | 205,459 | | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁: ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 花生：节前减仓 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 花生基本面数据 | | | | | 昨日价格 | 价格变动 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重要现货 | 辽宁308通货 | 元/吨 | | 9,400 | | | | 价 格 | 河南白沙通货 | 元/吨 | | 7,300 | 0 | | | | 兴城小日本 | 元/吨 | | 8,600 | 0 | | | | 苏丹精米 | 元/吨 | | 8,650 | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | | | | PK601 | 元/吨 | | 8,078 | 0.05 | | | | PK603 | 元/吨 | | 7,942 | -0.33 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | PK601 | 手 | 1,633 | 899 | 12,251 | -1347 | | | PK603 | 手 | 118,535 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend. Palm oil, cotton, and pigs are on an upward trend, while soybean meal is volatile, sugar is in a narrow - range oscillation, and eggs are also volatile. Each product's trend is affected by supply - demand factors and technical indicators [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2605 contract breaks through the resistance and expands gains, supported by reduced supply and increased demand in the origin. Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 25 days of December decreased by 9%, and exports increased by 1.6% - 3%. Technical indicators are strong, and the strategy is to go long on dips with support at 8550 - 8600 [2]. Cotton - The cotton main 2605 contract rises strongly, supported by the expected supply contraction and strong downstream demand. The new cotton sales rate is up 25.1 percentage points year - on - year, and there are optimistic expectations for textile exports. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold light long positions [3]. Pigs - The pig main 2603 contract continues to rise, driven by increased demand at the end of the year. Group pig enterprises reduce supply, and consumer demand for pork increases. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to go long on dips with light positions [5]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main 2605 contract is volatile, first falling then rising. High inventory restricts the rebound space, with the domestic soybean meal inventory at 117.6 million tons, up 7.72% week - on - week. The strategy is short - term trading [7]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar main 2605 contract oscillates in a narrow range. Although seasonal supply increases, demand is expected to pick up during the festivals, and the inventory is low. The technical indicators are strong, and long positions can be held [9]. Eggs - The egg main 2602 contract is volatile, first falling then rising. Supply is abundant, but consumption is expected to improve. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall trend of lithium carbonate has not reversed, and it is advisable to go long at low prices after the price stabilizes and the capital signal recovers. Polysilicon may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Industrial silicon is in a short - term shock pattern, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective [1][8][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, up 2.32% from the previous trading day [1]. - **Core Logic**: The price turned to a shock - strengthening pattern, but funds continued to withdraw. The sharp decline yesterday was a normal adjustment. The market has a consistent expectation of increasing demand, and the downstream production schedule in January - February exceeded expectations. In January 2026, the total production schedule of China's lithium - battery market increased by 103% year - on - year [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The market was still controlled by bulls, with significant position - reduction at the end of the session. The 5 - minute cycle was green, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 11,820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long at low prices. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [2]. - **Concerns**: The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi and the import volume of lithium concentrates, as well as the results of long - term contract negotiations and downstream demand release [3][4]. Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures contract 2605 closed at 57,890 yuan/ton, up 2.46% from the previous trading day [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the macro - emotional side, it followed the overall commodity trend. Exchange regulations may lead to reduced or withdrawn funds. It returned to the upper edge of the previous shock range, and the support level was not broken, but liquidity decreased significantly [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main contract reduced positions by 12.86%, and trading volume decreased significantly. The 5 - minute cycle was red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was weak, with a long - short dividing line at 60,760 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may maintain a shock pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Concerns**: The recovery of warehouse receipts [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures contract 2605 closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from the previous trading day [13]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the maintenance of northern large - scale plants on the supply side, it strengthened in a shock. The supply - demand imbalance continued, inventory was at a three - year high, and downstream restocking was limited [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The overall open interest continued to decline. There was an intraday trading opportunity at 9:05, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle was red - blue - red, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle was strong, with a long - short dividing line at 8,715 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is in a short - term shock pattern. Pay attention to whether the pressure level of 9000 is effective. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13]. - **Concerns**: Macro - emotional changes, environmental protection speculation of large - scale plants in winter, industry anti - involution progress, and new warehouse receipt registration [13].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆仍收跌，连粕或跟随调整 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4156 +31 | （+0.75%） | 4180 | +21 （+0.50%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2774 | -8（-0.29%） | 2776 | -12 （-0.43%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1063.75 | -8.0（-0.75%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 303.5 -3.9 | （-1.27%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 较昨-30至+10； 3120～3160， | | 现货基差M2605+350， | 较 ...