PVC周报： 仓单再创新高，低位震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2025/11/16 证监许可[2025]75号 仓单再创新高，产业套保施压 【本周复盘】 本周PVC触底反弹，周线3连阴，主力再创年内新低。周初平开在4613，随后冲高回落，延续上周下 跌趋势；至周四夜盘跌至周内低点4560后低位反弹，周五午盘冲至日内高点4635后小幅回落，最终 收在4608（较上周收跌3点或0.6%）。全周在4560至4635间运行，振幅75点。 【下周展望】 基本面弱势难改，关注资金动态。11-12月氯碱企业传统开工淡季，产业链去库压力依旧偏高，盘 面维持升水结构，本周五仓单再创历史新高达到12.9万手，重点关注印度反倾销税政策变动。成本 端，电石毛利跌至低位，原料端兰炭表现坚挺，成本支撑有望走强。11月14月，主力持仓量为135 万手（同比+20万手）。考虑到11月中下旬后资金逐步开始移仓换月，关注空头平仓带来的阶段性 低多机会。 【策略】 1）单边：短期绝对价格低估值，根据资金动态轻仓参与反弹。V2601关注区 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term and intraday, with a mid - term view of oscillation [1][5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term is weak, mid - term is oscillating, intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][5] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's key step to end the federal government "shutdown" has re - stimulated investors' risk appetite, and market optimism has recovered. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. Last Friday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly lower. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term is weak, mid - term is oscillating, intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which has boosted investors' risk appetite. After the enhancement of macro factors, combined with the optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data in the rubber market. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment has become more cautious. Last Friday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly lower. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures may maintain a strong trend on Monday [7]

周度报告——股指期货 地缘关系紧张，股指高位遇阻 扫描二维码，微信关注"东证繁微"小程序 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：aAry股] 板块大面积切换 股 指 期 货 本周（11/10-11/14）以美元计价的全球股市收涨。MSCI 全球指 数涨 0.41%，其中前沿市场（+1.20%）>发达市场（+0.43%）> 新兴市场（+0.29%）。南非股市涨 5.2%领跑全球，中国台湾股 市跌 1.88%全球表现最差。中国权益资产涨跌分化，分市场看， 港股>A 股>中概股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 20440 亿元， 环比上周（20126 亿元)缩量 314 亿元。A 股宽基指数分化，其中 微盘股指数涨3.10%表现最好，科创50指数跌幅3.85%表现较差。 本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 20 个上涨（上周 17 个），10 个下 跌（上周 13 个）。领涨行业为消费者服务（+4.81%），领跌行 业为通信（-4.90%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下行，1Y 上行，利差收缩。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周减少 3 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额增加 1.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The LLDPE market has partial supply disturbances, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The raw - material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE disk is under downward pressure, the downstream has strong rigid demand support, but the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened after last week's decline, and the upstream mainly tries to hold prices, resulting in passive accumulation of factory inventories and a slight strengthening of the basis. In the short - term, the contradiction is not significant, but in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6818, with a daily increase of 0.44%, the trading volume was 374,936, and the position decreased by 5,317. The 01 - contract basis was - 28, the same as the previous day; the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 75, an increase of 1 compared to the previous day. - Spot prices: The prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6,790 yuan/ton, 6,900 yuan/ton, and 7,050 yuan/ton respectively. The North China price increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, while the East and South China prices remained unchanged [1] Spot News - The futures disk was under pressure, the North China LL basis gradually repaired to around par, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased recently. The linear prices in North China, East China, and South China had partial fluctuations of 10 - 30 yuan/ton, 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and 50 - 70 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of the domestic LLDPE market was 6,760 - 7,450 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened low and fluctuated upward, but the market trading atmosphere was not significantly boosted. Traders quoted prices according to the market. In the downward market, downstream players had a bearish attitude and reduced their willingness to purchase raw materials, resulting in difficulty in increasing overall trading volume [1] Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price fluctuates, the profit of the monomer link is compressed, the PE disk is under downward pressure. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but after last week's decline, the willingness of middle - and downstream players to hold goods has weakened. The upstream mainly tries to hold prices, resulting in passive accumulation of factory inventories and a slight strengthening of the basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, but the unplanned maintenance volume in November has increased compared to expectations, and the short - term contradiction is not significant. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implied by the context as it's the highest rating available and not explicitly stated otherwise) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory situations [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are slightly down with a risk of short - term downward breakout due to new cotton listing and average demand. New cotton cost provides support, but price increases face hedging pressure. As of November 6, national cumulative processed lint was 319.3 million tons, up 59.5 million tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn market is stable with rigid demand. Suggest to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight US sugar oscillated. Brazilian production data in mid - October was neutral, with the end of the current sugar - making season approaching. In China, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. There are rumors of syrup import control, providing support. The market focuses on the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices are strong. Apple purchases in Shandong are nearing completion, and cold - storage trading has started in the northwest. As of November 13, national cold - storage apple inventory was 735.77 million tons, down 12% year - on - year. The market focus shifts to sales expectations. In the short - term, prices are strong, but long - term de - stocking is a concern [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures prices are down, butadiene rubber futures prices oscillate weakly. Global natural rubber supply is at a high level, but Yunnan's production is decreasing. Domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rates are rising. Demand is slowly weakening, and rubber inventories are increasing. Suggest RU&BR for rebound trading, NR for waiting and see, and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices are down. As of November 13, China's mainstream pulp import inventory was 211.0 million tons, up 5.1% month - on - month and 21.3% year - on - year. Overseas broad - leaf pulp prices are strong, but downstream procurement is average. The pulp valuation is low with medium - long - term improvement expectations. Short - term upward space may be limited, but there is a rumored risk of cornering the market. Suggest to hold long positions cautiously [6] Logs - Futures prices oscillate. New Zealand's radiata pine prices are rising in November, but domestic prices are weak. Importers' willingness to import is low, and domestic supply may remain low. Demand provides support, and low inventory supports prices. Suggest to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as government policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Metal Copper - The Shanghai copper market rebounded this week, but both domestic and foreign copper prices faced resistance at 88,000 yuan and $11,000. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market focused on economic growth. Short - term short positions can be traded against 88,000 yuan, and the copper price is in a volatile state [1] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum price fell from a high. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. The downstream procurement weakened, and the fundamentals deteriorated. The price is under pressure near 17,800 yuan/ton. The consumption expectation may improve in the short term, but the support for high prices is insufficient. Alumina is in a state of oversupply and is weakly operating [2][3] Zinc - The Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the zinc price. The LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory decreased. The domestic smelter profit is under pressure, and some smelters have cut production. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of Shanghai nickel accelerated. The nickel industry chain is in an overall over - supply situation. The mainstream stainless steel mills cancelled the price limit and lowered the price. The market is sluggish, and the nickel price is weakly operating [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is in a high - level shock. The downstream battery orders increased, and the total inventory decreased. The ore price strengthened again. It is expected to be in a slightly strong shock in the short term [5] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures weakened slightly. The supply decreased during the dry season in the southwest, but the demand was dragged down. The short - term market is under pressure at a high level and continues to fluctuate [5] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The photovoltaic terminal demand is weak, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The market is driven by policy expectations and continues to fluctuate in the short term [5] Tin - The Shanghai tin price gave back yesterday's gains. The market follows the sector sentiment, and the mid - long - term short positions can be held against 295,000 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on November 14, 2025, including weak and volatile trends for stock index futures, gold, silver, and tin futures, etc. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On November 14, it is expected to be weakly volatile. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4689 and 4741 points, support levels are 4636 and 4604 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 3080 and 3100 points, support levels are 3041 and 3029 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 7289 and 7350 points, support levels are 7183 and 7117 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7519 and 7600 points, support levels are 7419 and 7319 points. In November 2025, all four major stock index futures contracts are expected to be broadly volatile. [2][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 14, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is expected to be broadly volatile, with support levels at 108.37 and 108.31 yuan, resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.62 yuan; the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is also expected to be broadly volatile, with support levels at 116.0 and 115.8 yuan, resistance levels at 116.5 and 116.8 yuan. [3][37][40] - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 14, gold futures contract AU2512 and silver futures contract AG2512 are expected to be weakly volatile. In November 2025, both the gold and silver futures continuous contracts are expected to be strongly and broadly volatile. [41][48][49] - **Base Metal Futures**: On November 14, copper futures contract CU2512 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate; aluminum futures contract AL2601 is expected to be broadly volatile and attempt to break through resistance levels; alumina futures contract AO2601 is expected to be broadly volatile; tin futures contract SN2512 is expected to be weakly volatile. In November 2025, copper, aluminum, and tin futures continuous contracts are expected to be strongly and broadly volatile. [53][59][67] - **Other Commodity Futures**: On November 14, polycrystalline silicon futures contract PS2601 is expected to be broadly volatile and attempt to break through resistance levels; lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 is expected to be broadly volatile; rebar futures contract RB2601 and hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; iron ore futures contract I2601 is expected to be broadly volatile; coking coal futures contract JM2601 is expected to be broadly volatile; glass futures contract FG601 and soda ash futures contract SA601 are expected to be weakly volatile; crude oil futures contract SC2512, PTA futures contract TA601, and PVC futures contract V2601 are expected to be strongly volatile. [71][74][80] Macro News and Trading Tips - China is reported to agree to buy about 12 million tons of US soybeans in November and December 2025, and at least 25 million tons per year for the next three years. China is also designing a new rare - earth export licensing system. [8] - The total social financing scale increment in China in the first ten months of 2025 is 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. As of the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock is 8.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 is 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. [8] - The US government ends the shutdown, but the release of economic data is affected. The IMF expects the US Q4 GDP growth rate to be lower than the previously predicted 1.9%. [10] - The UK's Q3 GDP grows only 0.1% quarter - on - quarter, with a 0.1% contraction in September due to the decline in manufacturing offsetting the weak growth in services. [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment for soybean meal is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, chasing long positions should be done with caution. Opportunities to go long on dips are recommended. Attention should be paid to the November USDA report and the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1]. - The sentiment for rapeseed meal is also bullish. However, due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited. Follow - up developments in China - Canada trade should be monitored [1]. - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand balance. With inventory accumulation in October and weak export data in the first 10 days of November, there is still an expectation of inventory build - up. Caution is needed when going long on palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term. Although there is no strong bullish driver currently, it can be treated as a rebound. Attention should be paid to the November USDA report and the weather in Brazil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to be bullish in the short term. The zero - operation of coastal oil mills, zero inventory of rapeseed, and zero import of rapeseed in November have led to a significant rebound in domestic rapeseed oil prices [1]. - Cotton is expected to have a short - term adjustment. The market is digesting the new - season supply pressure, but the consumption outlook may not be overly pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand balance sheet on Friday [1]. - For jujubes, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the high - inventory of old jujubes and limited acceptance of new products, short - selling operations should be carried out cautiously [1]. - For live pigs, the supply pressure in Q4 remains high. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and consider the 03 contract. Attention should also be paid to the anti - arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 10.334 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 705,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 511,600 tons or 7.20%. The soybean meal inventory was 998,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 154,400 tons or 13.39% [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3,071 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,106.57 yuan/ton, up 8.86 yuan or 0.29% [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to trade costs and potential Brazilian planting premiums, the market has a bullish sentiment, but chasing long positions should be cautious. Look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to the USDA report and Brazilian soybean planting [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of November 7, the coastal area's main oil mills had a rapeseed inventory of 0 tons, a rapeseed meal inventory of 5,000 tons, and an unexecuted contract of 5,000 tons, all showing a week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,492 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The national average spot price remained unchanged at 2,588.95 yuan/ton [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market's expectation of an improvement in China - Canada trade tariffs has cooled. Although the sentiment is bullish, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the off - season and high inventories. Monitor China - Canada trade developments [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 597,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,500 tons or 0.76% [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,752 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.09% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,725 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.34% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. With inventory accumulation and weak export data, be cautious when going long [1][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, the daily listing volume is about 14,000 tons; in Pakistan, the new cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67% [10]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 0.22% [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international market has a bullish sentiment due to the potential US government shutdown. Domestically, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the consumption outlook may not be overly pessimistic. Look for short - term low - buying opportunities and pay attention to the USDA supply - demand balance sheet [1][12]. Jujubes - **Market Situation**: The Xinjiang main production area is in the concentrated harvest stage. As of November 6, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,541 tons, a week - on - week increase of 193 tons or 2.06% [15]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9,195 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan or 1.82% from the previous day. The spot price of some varieties remained stable or decreased slightly [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - selling operations should be carried out cautiously based on the main purchase price and progress [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: As of November 10, the overall group's slaughter progress was about 2% behind schedule. The number of newly - born piglets in October increased by 105,300 to 5.7813 million. The number of fertile sows in September decreased by 30,000 to 40.35 million [16]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 11,860 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 0.55% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.25% [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. Short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and consider the 03 contract. Look for anti - arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Affected by the cancellation of India's BIS certification for PTA and the news of PX blending demand in the market, the PX futures market rose at the end of the session, and PTA followed suit. The PTA futures closed slightly higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis fluctuated within a range. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the device [6]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level on Thursday, and the market negotiation was average. The port inventory of ethylene glycol this week has rebounded to around 660,000 tons, and the arrival of foreign ships in the middle of the month is still concentrated. It is expected to be mainly in shock consolidation, with obvious pressure on the upper side [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found 3.2 Daily Tips - No relevant content found 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant content found 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Fundamental Data** - Spot price: 4,565, 01 contract basis -135, the futures price is higher than the spot price, neutral [7]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory is 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared with the previous period, bullish [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, bullish [7]. - Main position: Net long, changing from short to long, bullish [7]. - **MEG Fundamental Data** - Spot price: 3,943, 01 contract basis 51, the spot price is higher than the futures price, neutral [10]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 622,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons compared with the previous period, bearish [10]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, bearish [10]. - Main position: The main net long position is decreasing, bullish [9]. 3.5 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity shows an increasing trend, with a total increase of about 1.41 million tons. PTA production and demand also show certain fluctuations, and the inventory at the end of the period also changes accordingly [12]. 3.6 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol show an overall increasing trend, and the consumption also shows a certain upward trend. The port inventory also fluctuates [13]. 3.7 Price - The report presents the price trends of PET bottle chips, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, etc. from 2021 to 2025 through charts [15][25][32] 3.8 Inventory Analysis - The report shows the inventory trends of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fiber through charts, including factory inventory and port inventory [42][44][47] 3.9 Polyester Upstream and Downstream Start - up - The report shows the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions from 2021 to 2025 through charts [54][56][58] 3.10 Profit - The report shows the profit trends of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester fiber production from 2022 to 2025 through charts [60][63][65]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures prices is expected to be oscillating on the strong side, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillating [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating on the strong side [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating on the strong side [5] - **Core Logic**: After the US government ended the shutdown, the market anticipates that the USDA monthly supply - demand report may lower the US soybean yield forecast. Irregular rainfall in the Brazilian soybean - growing areas has led to the replanting of some soybeans, adding concerns about global supply. In China, although the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is high, concerns about the far - term supply gap provide medium - and long - term support for soybean prices. In the short term, the soybean meal futures price is driven by cost and the expectation of the USDA report, but the rebound space is limited by the domestic spot market's loose pattern [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating on the strong side [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Oscillating on the strong side [7] - **Core Logic**: The favorable biodiesel policy in Indonesia offsets the supply pressure, but the weak exports of Malaysian palm oil and the decline in India's import share still drag down the palm oil futures price. In China, the increase in palm oil purchases and the growing expectation of inventory accumulation mean there is a lack of short - term upward drivers. The palm oil market should focus on the production and sales data of Malaysian palm oil and the progress of Indonesia's biodiesel policy. In the short term, the overall price of edible oils has stopped falling and stabilized, the palm oil futures price is oscillating on the strong side, and the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is being repaired [7]. Other Information on Time Cycles and Influencing Factors - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [6] - **Influencing Factors**: For soybean meal 2601, the influencing factors include China's tariffs on the US, import arrival rhythm, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory pressure; for soybean oil 2601, they include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory; for palm 2601, they include the biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]