Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and daily views on soybean meal, palm oil, and other agricultural product futures, with most of the views being "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term**: The short - term view is "oscillating", and the core logic is that excessive rainfall in the mid - west of Brazil delays soybean harvesting and listing, boosting US soybean prices. In China, the tightening of spot delivery contracts before the festival provides price support, but high domestic inventories and sufficient supply expectations in the far - month remain, with potential for post - festival soybean auctions, so short - term prices will oscillate. Key factors to watch include the US Agricultural Outlook Forum's area forecast in mid - to late February, and South American weather and logistics [5]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view is "oscillating", and the influencing factors include import soybean cost, arrival rhythm, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [5]. - **Daily**: The daily view is "oscillating weakly", and the reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term**: The short - term view is "oscillating weakly". The core logic is that the pre - festival oil market is in a weak oscillation pattern dominated by funds. Weak February export data of Malaysian palm oil and a negative sentiment at industry conferences suppress the price. The domestic oil futures price is dominated by import costs, and attention should be paid to US soybean oil policies and post - festival inventory pressure [6]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view is "oscillating", and influencing factors include Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [5]. - **Daily**: The daily view is "oscillating weakly", and the reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. Other Information - The calculation of the price change range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night - session trading, and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night - session trading, with the day - session closing price as the end - point price [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered "weak", a decline of 0 - 1% is "oscillating weakly", an increase of 0 - 1% is "oscillating strongly", and an increase of more than 1% is "strong". The concepts of "oscillating strongly/weakly" are only for daily views, without a distinction between short - term and medium - term [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Analyze the price trends and influencing factors of various core futures varieties during the Spring Festival holiday, and suggest investors to hold no positions during the holiday due to high uncertainties and potential large price fluctuations [9][11][13] - Provide historical statistics of the price fluctuations of overseas markets during the Spring Festival in the past decade for investors' reference [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Near - Decade Spring Festival Overseas Market Price Fluctuation Statistics - The average price fluctuation range of overseas commodities during the Spring Festival holiday in history is between -3.5% and 4%. Crude oil, shipping indexes and other varieties have more obvious price fluctuations, especially in the past two years due to extreme events such as geopolitical conflicts [6] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Before the Spring Festival, affected by overseas news and precious metal sentiment, the price fluctuated greatly, and then stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply and demand decreased before the festival. In January, the production exceeded expectations by 1.57 tons, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year [9] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association's proposal to improve the copper reserve system stimulated the market, amplifying the expectation of supply shortage. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 131.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials, but as the Spring Festival approached, downstream procurement decreased [9] - The price is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industry anti - involution, and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Before the Spring Festival, affected by non - ferrous metals and precious metals in both domestic and overseas markets, the price volatility increased. In recent days, the market began to trade on supply contraction, and the price rebounded slightly. Due to the maintenance plan of lithium salt factories, the supply in February is expected to decrease. It is estimated that the output in February will be 8.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% [10] - According to Chile customs data, in January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,893 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59%. The export to China was 16,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35% [10] - PLS signed a two - year lithium spodumene concentrate off - take agreement with Tianyi Lithium Industry, providing a floor price for lithium prices. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen. In March, the downstream production orders are expected to increase significantly, and the demand for lithium carbonate will rise. The inventory is gradually shifting downstream. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. During the off - season of crude oil demand, US crude oil inventories increased significantly more than expected, but propane and refined oil inventories decreased significantly, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly. The global floating crude oil storage is high, and the market is in a state of supply surplus [12] - Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. The EIA's February report raised the forecast of crude oil supply surplus in 2026. The oil production in Venezuela is expected to recover in mid - 2026 [12] - The US - Iran nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman "temporarily" ended. The US warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate greatly during the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hold no positions [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% last week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is estimated that the domestic asphalt production in February 2026 will be 193.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 tons (6.5%) [14] - The downstream construction rates of asphalt industries decreased before the Spring Festival. The national asphalt shipment decreased by 1.33% to 21.16 tons. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly and is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, which may affect production and cost [14] - Some refineries resumed production, and the production rate increased slightly. The spot trading was light before the Spring Festival. The asphalt price will fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday and close the 03 - 06 reverse spread [14] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream construction rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84%. The construction rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74%, and the orders continued to decline. On February 12, the PP enterprise construction rate remained at about 82.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased to about 28% [15][16] - The petrochemical inventory in February decreased well and is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the expected military conflict, and the crude oil price rebounded. The downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold no positions for single - side trading and hold a light position for narrowing the L - PP spread [16] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 12, the plastic construction rate remained at about 92%. As of the week of February 6, the downstream construction rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73%. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased, and the overall downstream construction rate decreased seasonally [17] - The petrochemical inventory in February decreased well and is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the expected military conflict, and the crude oil price rebounded. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. It is recommended to hold no positions for single - side trading and hold a light position for narrowing the L - PP spread [17] 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC construction rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26%. The downstream construction rate decreased by 3.33 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to stock up is low. After the price increase, the domestic export orders decreased, but the previous export rush reduced the sales pressure [19] - The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit is under pressure, and the PVC construction rate is expected to change little. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [19] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Before the Spring Festival, coking coal entered a weak shock range, with both supply and demand decreasing. As the holiday approached, domestic mine production decreased, and the supply of Mongolian coal was restricted. The rumor of Indonesia's export suspension has high uncertainty [20] - The downstream demand is in the off - season, and steel mills and coking enterprises maintain low - level inventory and replenish inventory as needed. The coking enterprises' profit has recovered, but there is a risk of price reduction after the holiday. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [20] 3.2.9 Urea - Before the Spring Festival, urea showed an upward - trending shock. Today, it rose sharply due to market rumors, and the order collection during the holiday was completed smoothly. The upstream factory production is stable during the holiday, with a daily output of 21 tons, which is relatively high year - on - year and month - on - month [22] - The previous high - output pressure has been mostly digested. The inventory decreased significantly last year, and it is expected to increase during the holiday. After the holiday, it will enter the agricultural demand peak season, and the supply - demand relationship will be in a tight balance. However, the price increase may be restricted by policies. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival, demand changes, and supply adjustments, with different trends in various chemical products [2][3][5] - Some products face supply - demand imbalances in the short - term, while others have potential opportunities in the medium - to long - term depending on factors like inventory changes and demand recovery [3][5][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up with limited market news, stable trading, and some price increases [2] - PE market may be stable to weak in the short - term due to reduced demand and continued supply pressure [2] - Polypropylene is in a weak downward situation due to reduced demand and expected supply increase [2] Polyester - PX and PTA decreased due to approaching Spring Festival and weakening demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene glycol is in range - bound, with potential improvement in the second quarter but long - term pressure [3] - Short fiber load decreased, inventory is low, and the price follows raw materials [3] - Bottle chip has short - term raw material - following trends, and mid - term attention is on post - holiday demand and de - stocking [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated, and the spot market rose slightly. Post - holiday supply - demand is expected to improve [5] - Styrene fundamentals may weaken in the short - term due to increased supply and decreased demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol has a weak fundamental situation, but post - holiday de - stocking is expected [6] - Urea prices may rise in the short - term and continue to be strong after the holiday [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may see a price increase due to cost support and export demand, with a buy - on - dips strategy [7] - Caustic soda is expected to trade around cost due to cost support and downstream feedback [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faces supply - demand surplus pressure, with a high - selling strategy [8] - Glass may have a seasonal inventory build - up, but there are potential buying opportunities at low valuations [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The intraday price center dropped slightly to around 16,450 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.51% lower at 16,450 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, trading by both sides has become more cautious. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of decreasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price reached a maximum of 2,259 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,230 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.45% lower at 2,231 yuan/ton. The discount of the May - September spread narrowed to 30 yuan/ton. Dominated by the weak supply - demand fundamentals, trading by both sides has become more cautious, and methanol futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing trading volume, reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and slightly closing higher. The price reached a maximum of 486.4 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 476.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 0.19% higher at 476.8 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have heated up again, the premium of crude oil has become prominent. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the external market during the Spring Festival holiday and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons or 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 5, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline, with many all - steel tire enterprises gradually entering the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises mostly shutting down from February 13 to February 15 [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Month - on - month, they decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. Specifically, the passenger car market declined. In January, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.062 million and 1.988 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% and 6.8% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 28.4% and 30.2% respectively. The commercial vehicle market continued to improve. In January, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 388,000 and 359,000 respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% and 23.5% respectively, and a month - on - month decrease of 6.8% and 15.6% respectively [10]. - In January 2026, China's Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) was 51.2%, a slight month - on - month decline of 1.2 percentage points, still in the expansion range above 50%. Driven by the recovery of logistics prosperity, in January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), basically the same as in December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry will increase slightly year - on - year in the first quarter of this year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.98%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.95%, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.60%, and a significant increase of 11.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0611 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 23,300 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and a significant increase of 140,100 tons compared with 1.921 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 28.69%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 7.72%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 81.09%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.15%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 79%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.47 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 2.65%. As of February 6, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 55 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week recovery of 81 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 401 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China remained at 961,400 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 32,400 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 197,900 tons, and a significant increase of 122,700 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 340,300 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 6, 2026, the average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels per day, reaching a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a slight increase of 969,000 barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.113 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 100,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 89.4%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 124,565 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 27,583 contracts and a significant increase of 51,751 contracts or 71.07% compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts. On the other hand, as of February 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 244,306 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 26,344 contracts and a significant increase of 59,860 contracts or 32.45% compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,400 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 16,450 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,230 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | 2,231 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | +17 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 476.8 yuan/barrel | +0.0 yuan/barrel | - 20.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, May - September spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][19][22][24][26]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][32][34][37][39]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [43][47][49][51][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, recent TA has turned to inventory accumulation, with its processing fees and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flows of downstream sectors, limited PX supply increase at current valuations, and no significant load - up of TA plants, the valuation is becoming more reasonable. One can focus on phased positive spreads and long - allocation opportunities [2]. - For MEG, after the recent valuation of EG has been compressed again, the reduction in supply has further increased. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of inventory drawdown in the far - month is rising. During the production - expansion cycle, the overall elasticity is limited. One can focus on short - term put - selling opportunities [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream of staple fiber is expected to continue to weaken seasonally, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with a low - to - medium valuation and weak driving force, and overall contradictions are limited. One should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Basis**: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions is 2605(-63). The basis has strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee has weakened month - on - month. - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. - **Supply and Demand**: Near - term TA plants have resumed operation, and the operating rate has increased month - on - month. Polyester load has continued to decline, and inventory has continued to accumulate [2]. MEG - **Price and Basis**: The basis of MEG spot transactions is around 05(-113). The basis has weakened slightly, and coal - based profits have shrunk. - **Device Changes**: Shanxi Wonen's 300,000 - ton plant is under maintenance. - **Supply and Demand**: Near - term domestic oil - based plants have resumed operation while coal - based plants are under maintenance. The overall operating rate has increased slightly, port inventory has continued to be obvious at the beginning of next week, and the forecast of arrivals this week has declined slightly [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is around 6592, and the market basis is around 03 - 50. - **Device Changes**: There is no information on device maintenance this week. - **Supply and Demand**: Near - term plant maintenance before the holiday has continued, the operating rate has further declined to 77.7%, sales have remained weak, inventory has accumulated month - on - month, and spot processing fees have improved month - on - month. The operating rate on the polyester yarn side has continued to decline, raw material inventory and finished - product inventory have remained stable, and profits have remained the same month - on - month [2]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The weekly changes of some varieties are as follows: the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber has increased by 10, Thai mixed rubber by 5, Shanghai full - latex rubber by 70, and the RU main contract by 190. - **Spread Changes**: The weekly changes of some spreads are as follows: the spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract has increased by 30, the spread between US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and NR main contract by 79, and the spread between full - latex and mixed rubber by 90. - **Strategy**: The main strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene - **Raw Material and Product Prices**: The prices of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) have remained stable at 690. The price of pure benzene (CFR China) has decreased slightly, and the price of styrene (CFR China) has increased by 5 on a daily basis. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene has remained at 464, and the domestic profit of EPS has decreased by 15 on a daily basis [9].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-12甲醇早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：假期临近，预计本周国内甲醇区间震荡为主。内地甲醇市场逐步进入节前休整周期。需求端，甲醛等传统 下游装置已相继停车放假，部分下游也完成节前备货，终端需求逐步缩量。供应端，国内甲醇工厂持续加大出货力度， 企业库存水平低位运行，部分企业已采取限量销售策略，整体供应端保持充足且无明显压力。随着春节长假日益临近， 市场交投活跃度明显下降，预计短期内内地甲醇市场将维持清淡整理格局。港口方面，甲醇期货跟随有色金属板块经历 一轮大涨大跌后再度陷入区间震荡，当前资金情绪消散，美伊地缘风险不定，基本面颓势不改，预计节前港口市场底 ...

2026 年 02 月 12 日 短纤：短期震荡市，多单逢高减仓 20260212 瓶片：短期震荡市，多单逢高减仓 20260212 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2603 | ୧୧୫୫ | 6552 | 36 | PF03-04 | -66 | -74 | 8 | | PF | 短纤2604 | 6654 | 6626 | 28 | PF04-05 | 0 | 24 | -24 | | | 短纤2605 | 6654 | 6602 | 52 | PF主力基差 | -64 | -41 | -23 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 137024 | 169833 | -32809 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 590 | 6. 585 | 5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 165849 昨日 | 167534 前日 | -1685 变化 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2603, control positions before the holiday, trade mainly within the day as the price moves around the 20 - day moving average [2] - For Stainless Steel 2603, control positions before the holiday and focus on intraday trading [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On February 11, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 139,360, up 6,010 from February 10; LME Nickel was 18,065, up 515; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 14,145, up 320. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 142,600, up 3,650, and cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in most regions remained unchanged [8] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of February 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 57,457 tons, with futures inventory at 51,274 tons, an increase of 2,061 tons and 4,398 tons respectively. On February 11, LME nickel inventory was 285,750 tons (unchanged), Shanghai Nickel's warehouse receipts were 52,027 tons, a decrease of 12 tons [10][11] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On February 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 546,200 tons, in Foshan was 305,200 tons, and the national inventory was 965,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,300 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,300 tons. On February 11, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 54,491 tons, an increase of 421 tons [15][16] Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On February 11, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 64.5 dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 1,037.61 yuan/nickel point, up 2.09 yuan [19] Stainless Steel Production Cost - Traditional production cost was 13,718 yuan, scrap steel production cost was 13,431 yuan, and low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 18,012 yuan [21] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 142,060 yuan/ton [24]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 12 日星期四 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 甲醇 | 震荡偏多 | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 2 元至 2243 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 格上涨 5 元至 2215 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 1453 手至 47.7 万手，空头持 仓减少 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Plastic, PTA, PVC, and Soda Ash: Bullish trend, with relatively clear long - term trends and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, and Glass: Short - term long/short trends in a relatively balanced state, with poor current market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Styrene: Bearish trend, with relatively clear short - term trends and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: Slightly bullish, with a driving force for price increase, but poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows different trends in various sectors. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, seasonal demand, and geopolitical situations. Investment opportunities and risks coexist in different products [2][3][5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up with limited market news, and the overall trading remained stable [2] - PE market may have a slightly weakening trend in the short term due to increased supply and weakened demand [2] - Polypropylene is in a weak position due to reduced demand and increased supply expectations [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded, with PX having more long - term opportunities in the first half of the year, but currently facing weak demand and falling processing margins. PTA is experiencing inventory accumulation, and a 250 - million - ton device shutdown will ease the pressure [3] - Ethylene glycol supply has shrunk, and prices have rebounded. It may improve in the second quarter, but is still under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak, and prices follow raw materials [3] - Bottle chips' processing margins have recovered, but long - term production capacity pressure remains. Consider positive spread trading opportunities after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices have risen, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve after the Spring Festival [5] - Styrene fundamentals may weaken in the short term due to increased supply and decreased demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fundamentals are still weak, but short - term prices are affected by geopolitical situations. It may gradually reduce inventory after the Spring Festival [6] - Urea prices are stable, and the market is expected to strengthen after the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC is expected to rise in price due to cost support and export demand. Consider buying at low prices [7] - Caustic soda is expected to trade around cost due to cost support and downstream negative feedback [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is facing supply - demand surplus pressure in the long term. Consider short - selling on rebounds and holding long - glass and short - soda - ash positions [8] - Glass may experience seasonal inventory accumulation, but the supply - demand pattern may improve. Consider buying at low - valued structural positions [8]