1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The reduction of LME lead inventory supports lead prices [1] - China announced economic data for July, with year-on-year figures for monthly social consumer goods retail, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate sales all lower than the previous values. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales have grown for ten consecutive months. US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan unexpectedly declined in August, with both short - and long - term inflation expectations rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,850 yuan/ton, up 0.48%, while the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,981 dollars/ton, down 0.45%. The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 32,601 lots, a decrease of 13,015 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,426 lots [1] - **Position and Premium**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 51,207 lots, a decrease of 163 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 159,636 lots, an increase of 5,106 lots. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 43.24 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.37 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory and Profit**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,784 tons, unchanged, and the LME lead inventory was 261,100 tons, a decrease of 575 tons. The profit and loss of lead ingot spot imports was - 529.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.28 yuan/ton, and the profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three imports was - 524.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.02 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - China's economic data in July showed a slowdown in multiple indicators, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In the US, retail sales increased in July, but consumer confidence declined in August with rising inflation expectations [2] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

Retail Performance - In July, U.S. retail and food service sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the market expectation of 0.6%[5] - The average monthly growth rate of retail sales rose from 0% in January-May to 0.7% in June-July, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[2] - Automotive sales rebounded, with a month-on-month growth rate increasing from 1.4% in June to 1.6% in July after a cumulative decline of 4.6% in the first five months of 2023[5] Industrial Output - Industrial production fell by 0.1% month-on-month in July, primarily due to declines in mining and utilities, which dropped to -0.4% and -0.2% respectively[5] - Manufacturing output remained flat at 0% month-on-month, with significant increases in medical equipment (2.6%) and semiconductors (2.9%), while apparel and automotive sectors saw declines[5] Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to defend the independence of the central bank and reduce market expectations for significant interest rate cuts[2] - With inflation expected to rebound and unemployment rates remaining low, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in September, followed by rate cuts in October and December[2]

Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends - The proportion of Americans only making minimum payments on credit cards is nearing historical highs, indicating increased financial strain among consumers [4] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 58.6 in August, down from 61.7 in July, driven by pessimism regarding the current economic situation [2][3] - Credit card spending growth has slowed compared to debit card spending, marking a shift after 14 consecutive quarters of higher credit card growth [2][3] Economic Impact of Tariffs - New tariffs announced in August have reignited concerns about inflation linked to Trump's trade policies, affecting consumer sentiment across income groups [3] - The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to 3.3% in the fourth quarter due to tariff impacts on core goods prices [5] - Companies are beginning to pass on additional tariff costs to consumers, with expectations of strategic price increases as final tariff rates become clearer [6] Consumer Financial Behavior - There has been a significant increase in personal loans, with a year-on-year growth of 18% in Q1, as consumers shift away from high-interest credit card debt [4] - Consumers are becoming more cautious about spending on durable goods, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer confidence and spending [4] - The average interest rate for personal loans is 12.58%, compared to 20.13% for credit cards, indicating a shift in borrowing preferences [4] Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 4.9% in August, up from 4.5% in July, with long-term expectations also increasing [4] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI rising to its highest level in five months at 3.1% [5]

Market Performance - Major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones increasing by 34.86 points (0.08%) to close at 44,946.12, while the Nasdaq fell by 87.69 points (0.40%) to 21,622.98, and the S&P 500 decreased by 18.74 points (0.29%) to 6,449.80 [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose by 1.75%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.93%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.79% [2] European Market - European indices had mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising by 0.24%, the UK FTSE 100 declining by 0.44%, the French CAC40 increasing by 0.67%, the German DAX30 falling by 0.06%, and the Italian FTSE MIB rising by 1.11% [2] Asia-Pacific Market - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.71%, while the KOSPI index saw a slight increase, and the Indonesian Composite index fell by 0.41% [3] Commodity Prices - Crude oil prices fell, with NY light crude down by $1.16 to $62.80 per barrel (1.81% drop) and Brent crude down by $0.99 to $65.85 per barrel (1.48% drop) [3] - Spot gold increased by 0.04% to $3,336.74 per ounce, but saw a weekly decline of 1.79% [4] - Bitcoin decreased by 0.48% to $117,819, and Ethereum fell by 1.6% to $4,477.04 [4] Retail Sales - U.S. retail sales showed a comprehensive increase in July, with a month-over-month growth of 0.5%, and June's growth revised up to 0.9%. Nine out of thirteen categories recorded growth, led by significant increases in automobile sales [5] Consumer Confidence - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell by approximately 5% in August, primarily due to rising inflation concerns. Durable goods purchases dropped by 14%, marking the lowest level in a year [6] Semiconductor Industry - President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors, potentially as high as 300%, indicating a significant expansion of the tariff regime [7] - The Trump administration is considering using funds from the CHIPS Act to acquire equity in Intel (INTC.US), with discussions still in early stages [10] Company-Specific News - Meta Platforms (META.US) plans to restructure its AI business into four departments, indicating a significant organizational change [9] - Citigroup has removed Applied Materials (AMAT.US) from its focus list and lowered its target price to $205 [11]

Group 1: Company Performance - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, purchased 5 million shares of UnitedHealth Group in Q2, valued at approximately $1.6 billion, while selling its $1 billion stake in T-Mobile US, exiting the telecom operator entirely [3] - UnitedHealth's stock surged over 12% following the news of Buffett's investment, despite the company facing multiple crises, including the murder of its CEO and rising medical costs [3] - Berkshire also reduced its stake in Apple by selling 20 million shares, with Apple's market value decreasing by about $9.2 billion in the three months ending June 30 [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan reported that the preliminary consumer confidence index for August fell to 58.6 from 61.7 in July, with inflation expectations for the next year rising to an annual rate of 4.9% [4] - Retail sales in July showed broad growth, driven by auto sales and major online promotions, indicating increased consumer spending despite macroeconomic concerns [5] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September due to a weakening economic outlook and rising inflation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the US stock market, highlighting significant movements in individual stocks, particularly UnitedHealth, and the implications of the upcoming US-Russia summit on market sentiment [2][9]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly up while the Nasdaq and S&P indices experienced declines [2]. - UnitedHealth's stock surged over 12%, marking it as a standout performer in the market [3]. Group 2: UnitedHealth Insights - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, purchased 5 million shares of UnitedHealth in Q2, valued at approximately $1.6 billion, while selling its $1 billion stake in T-Mobile [6]. - UnitedHealth is facing multiple challenges, including rising medical costs and a recent leadership change after disappointing earnings [7]. - The company's stock performance has been volatile, with a 52-week high of $630.73 and a low of $234.60, and it currently has a market capitalization of $276.865 billion [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the US dropped from 61.7 in July to 58.6 in August, with inflation expectations rising to 4.9% for the next year [7]. - Retail sales in July showed overall growth, driven by automotive sales and online promotions, indicating a slight increase in consumer spending despite macroeconomic concerns [8]. Group 4: US-Russia Summit - The upcoming summit between Trump and Putin is highly anticipated, with potential implications for the ongoing Ukraine conflict and broader geopolitical dynamics [10][12]. - The White House expressed hopes for a peaceful resolution to the war, but the outcomes remain uncertain, particularly regarding Ukraine's territorial integrity and NATO aspirations [13][14].

Group 1 - In July, U.S. retail sales showed broad growth, with a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, surpassing market expectations, and June's data revised up to a 0.9% increase [1] - Nine out of thirteen major retail categories experienced growth, with auto sales recording the largest increase since March [1] - Online retail and general merchandise stores performed well, benefiting from promotional events by Amazon, Walmart, and Target [1] Group 2 - Despite the positive retail sales report, consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in early August, raising concerns about the sustainability of retail sales momentum [2] - Economists suggest a higher likelihood of softening consumer spending in the second half of the year due to tariff uncertainties and recent employment data [2] - The July retail sales report indicated a 0.5% increase in the "control group" sales, which is used to calculate GDP, with significant growth in categories like furniture and sports goods, although some of this increase may reflect inflation [2] Group 3 - Economists noted that while July retail sales benefited from strong online shopping and auto sales, consumers reduced spending on dining and beverages, indicating a shift towards essential goods amid slowing disposable income growth [3] - Inflation data showed that businesses passed on tariff costs to consumers less than expected, but wholesale profit margins increased significantly, suggesting future direct impacts of tariffs on consumers [3] - Additionally, U.S. industrial production declined in July, indicating weakness in manufacturing output [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the sluggish recovery of consumer spending in China, indicating that while there is potential for growth, consumer confidence and willingness to spend remain low due to various underlying issues [2][4]. Group 1: Consumer Data Analysis - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% but a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [3]. - The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 34,931 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.3% [3]. - From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284,238 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.8% [4]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Willingness - The consumer confidence index was reported at 88.03 in June 2025, indicating a weak state compared to the historical average of 124.6 in 2019 [5]. - The increase in household savings, with a balance of over 160 trillion yuan, suggests that while consumers have the capacity to spend, they prefer saving due to uncertainties about the future [4][5]. - Factors such as inadequate social security, high living costs, and barriers to consumption (e.g., housing and vehicle purchase restrictions) contribute to the lack of consumer willingness [5][6]. Group 3: Unlocking Consumption Potential - China has a significant consumption potential, with 75% of it yet to be realized, necessitating reforms to enhance the ability, willingness, and ease of consumption [6][7]. - To improve the "ability to consume," reforms in income distribution and labor compensation are essential, alongside addressing wage arrears for migrant workers [7][8]. - Enhancing consumer confidence requires stable social security measures and government policies to reduce precautionary savings and encourage spending [8]. Group 4: Addressing Consumption Barriers - The article emphasizes the need to eliminate restrictive policies on purchasing homes and vehicles to unlock potential consumer demand [8]. - Improving product quality and service standards is crucial for meeting the unmet needs of middle and high-income consumers [8]. - Strengthening consumer rights protection and enhancing the legal framework to address issues like price transparency and counterfeit goods are necessary for fostering a secure consumption environment [8].

在美国，消费者支出与股市下跌的关联更为紧密。美联储报告指出，过去十年美国零售额增长主要由富 裕家庭推动，其支出增幅是低收入群体的两倍多，而这一趋势高度依赖股市收益。 查尔斯·斯坦利证券公司股票分析师加里·怀特说："由于（美国）总统的激进贸易政策，人们担心出 现'特朗普衰退'，这意味着尽管通胀率高企，现在市场仍期待美联储会继续降息。" 【纠错】 【责任编辑:刘子丫】 新华社伦敦3月22日电（记者赵小娜）英国《卫报》日前刊文指出，美国关税政策引发的贸易争端可能 在美国和英国经济亟需降低借贷成本时推高通胀，对"特朗普衰退"的担忧令美联储和英国央行承受更大 降息压力。文章摘要如下： 美英两国货币政策制定者在判断利率走势时，要将如何认真应对"特朗普发起全面贸易战"的威胁纳入考 量。 美联储将审视由关税引发的"特朗普衰退"风险——飙升的进口成本可能令本已因生活成本危机而备受打 击的消费者停止支出。世界大型企业联合会数据显示，美国消费者信心水平大幅下降，2月份消费者信 心指数创下近四年来的最大单月跌幅。 英国央行决策者面临同样的困境，关税是当前最大担忧之一。与美联储情况相似：通胀率不断上升并保 持在2%的目标水平以上，而劳 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发表研报表示，在整体市场情绪偏向负面的背景下，7月美国消费者电子产品支出意向环比略有上升，但仍处于负值区间。 这一信号为消费电子行业前景蒙上阴影，分析师警告称，返校季需求疲软和持续恶化的宏观情绪可能压制行业复苏。 摩根士丹利7月24日至28日开展的AlphaWise美国消费者调查显示，美国消费者对经济前景的态度愈发谨慎。消费者净情绪环比下降7个百分点至-17%，这是 继上月下降4个百分点后的又一次下滑。对家庭财务状况的信心也在7月减弱，环比下降6个百分点至+10%。 这种情绪恶化在几乎所有收入群体中都有体现。高收入家庭(年收入超过10万美元)对家庭财务状况最为谨慎，而低收入家庭(年收入低于2.5万美元)则对美国 经济最为担忧。不过，这一结果与密歇根大学消费者信心指数形成对比，该指数7月微升1个百分点。 尽管消费者对经济的信心下降，但未来6个月的电子产品支出意向在7月环比略有上升(仍为负值)，而1个月支出意向则略有下降。 调查显示，未来一个月消费者电子产品净支出意向(即下月与本月相比的支出变化)环比下降3个百分点至-6%，未来一个月个人电脑净支出意向环比下降1个 百分点至-8%。更 ...