新华社纽约11月30日电 记者手记｜美国"黑五"消费难掩经济隐忧 根据美国软件公司赛富时的数据，美国消费者今年"黑色星期五"的消费总额比去年增加3%，低于全球 当日线上销售6%的增幅。与此同时，由于价格上涨阻碍了线上需求，与去年相比，消费者购买的商品 反而减少了。 新华社记者刘亚南 经历美国关税政策频繁扰动，被视为美国消费"晴雨表"的感恩节假日零售数据备受关注。今年"黑色星 期五"购物日，记者在美国见证了经济下行压力下更挑剔的消费者、更昂贵的商品以及利润空间不断被 压缩的零售商。 近期，美国就业市场降温、高物价压力持续等因素严重打压消费者信心。美国劳工部日前公布数据显 示，美国9月失业率升至4.4%，为2021年11月以来最高水平。过去一周，与消费相关的负面消息接踵而 至。美国联邦储备委员会"褐皮书"显示，美国消费支出整体进一步下滑，关税导致制造业和零售业成本 普遍承压；世界大型企业研究会调查数据显示，美国11月消费者信心指数降至今年4月以来最低水平。 美国包装食品品牌卡夫亨氏公司首席执行官卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯-里维拉表示，进入圣诞季，美国消费者 情绪处于几十年来"最糟糕的状态之一"。 更加精打细算，是美国消费 ...

（原标题：葡萄牙11月消费者信心转弱，经济景气继续回升） 葡萄牙统计局11月27日报道，葡消费者信心在连续两个月回升后于11月出现下滑（至-15.2），主 要受对国家经济、家庭财务和大额消费前景转弱的影响。经济景气指标则继续回升（至3.1），商业、 制造业以及建筑业信心改善，服务业出现回落。商业和制造业的提升分别源于销售、库存及生产预期向 好；建筑业受就业预期支撑；服务业因企业活动和需求预期转弱而下跌。各行业企业对未来销售价格的 预期普遍上升，尤以建筑业最为明显。 ...

Core Insights - The overall business confidence in the Eurozone remains stable, indicating moderate economic growth across the 20 countries, resilient against trade tariffs and political uncertainties [1] Economic Indicators - The Economic Sentiment Indicator rose from 96.8 in October to 97.0 in November, aligning with economists' expectations but still below the long-term average of 100 [1] - This indicator has been on an upward trend since the summer and is currently at its highest level since April 2023 [1] Sector Performance - The European Commission reported an improvement in service sector confidence compared to the previous month, while industrial sector confidence experienced a slight decline [1] - Consumer confidence remained stable during the month, further supporting the notion of slow but steady economic growth in the Eurozone as the year comes to a close [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices remained stable, with the market assessing the Federal Reserve's policy signals and adjusting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by year-end [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of 0200 GMT, spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $4,154.09 per ounce, while December gold futures fell by 0.3% to $4,151.20 per ounce [3]. - Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilverCentral, indicated that the unclear direction of the Federal Reserve's policy has led to a consolidation phase for gold prices, with the market awaiting clearer signals [3]. - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts, prompting some funds to shift towards interest rate-related derivatives to manage volatility from policy uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Some Federal Reserve officials have expressed dovish sentiments, with New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller noting that a slowing labor market could pressure Treasury yields, suggesting a potential policy adjustment in December [3]. - Conversely, several regional Fed presidents advocate for delaying any easing of policies until inflation data stabilizes closer to the 2% target [3]. - The FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates a high probability for interest rate cuts in December, as lower interest rates typically enhance gold's attractiveness [3]. Group 3: Employment and Consumer Confidence - Recent employment data showed a slight decline in initial jobless claims, but the job market still does not fully meet job-seeker demand [4]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in November due to uncertainties regarding employment and household financial conditions [4]. Group 4: Other Precious Metals - In the precious metals market, spot silver decreased by 0.9% to $52.89 per ounce, while platinum rose by 1.4% to $1,611.04 per ounce; palladium fell by 0.9% to $1,409.87 per ounce [4].

11月26日，美国商务部公布因政府关门推迟的9月零售数据。整体而言，美国9月零售销售额小幅上升， 这表明在此前数月强劲消费者支出步伐之后，一些中低收入消费者在通胀与就业难度增大的重压之下按 下了暂停键。 利率预期的转变始于美国政府重启后延迟发布的9月就业数据，该数据描绘出喜忧参半的经济图景。美 国劳工统计局上周公布的数据显示，美国9月非农就业意外大增11.9万人，显著高于市场预期的5万人。 失业率则从8月的4.3%升至4.4%，创2021年以来新高。此外，7月和8月新增就业人数合计下修3.3万人。 数据发布后，上周五，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在公开讲话中罕见释放鸽派信号，他表示美联储"仍 可能在不危及通胀目标的情况下，在短期内降低利率"。这一表态如同一剂强心针，迅速点燃了市场对 12月降息的热情。几乎同时，高盛发布最新报告预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。 该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降温，为政策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。高盛还预 计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%–3.25%的区间。 不过，和高盛态度形成鲜明对比的是，摩根士丹利 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce released the delayed retail sales data for September, showing a 0.2% increase in retail sales, which is lower than the 0.6% increase in August [1] - Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline only grew by 0.1%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending momentum towards the end of Q3 [1] Retail Sales Performance - Out of 13 categories, 8 recorded growth, primarily driven by sales at gas stations, personal care stores, and miscellaneous retailers [1] - Motor vehicle sales experienced a decline for the first time in four months, while sales in electronics, clothing, and sporting goods also decreased [1] Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - High-income consumers supported overall spending due to strong stock market performance, but low-income consumers showed signs of financial strain [1] - Rising prices and a weakening job market have made many shoppers more cautious, pushing consumer confidence close to historical lows [1] Federal Reserve Considerations - The income disparity among consumers has been a focal point for Federal Reserve officials [1] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve decision-makers regarding the possibility of another interest rate cut in the upcoming meeting, with investors currently believing that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is greater than that of no cut [1]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing challenges due to the uncertainty brought by the Trump administration's tariff policies and the recent government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days [1] - The GDP data for the third quarter remains unclear due to the government shutdown, and the labor market is cooling while inflation pressures persist [1] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, the highest level since November 2021, despite the addition of 119,000 non-farm jobs, which exceeded market expectations [1] - A total of 470,000 individuals entered the labor market, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate, indicating that high inflation is forcing people to seek employment [1] - The non-farm employment data for July and August was revised downwards, with July's figures adjusted from 79,000 to 72,000 and August's from 22,000 to a negative 4,000 [1] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment showed a slight improvement after the government shutdown, but individuals remain frustrated by high prices and declining incomes [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to 51.0 in November, down from 53.6 in October, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [3] Economic Growth Predictions - The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's survey of 33 professional researchers predicts a median GDP growth rate of 1.1% for the fourth quarter, down from a previous estimate of 1.3% [3] - The forecast for the first quarter of the following year was also revised down from 1.9% to 1.6% [3] Consumer Behavior - The CEO of Kraft Heinz stated that consumer sentiment entering the holiday season is among the worst in decades, reflecting the economic challenges faced by consumers [3]

Group 1 - The September employment report showed a significant increase in non-farm payrolls by 119,000, exceeding economists' expectations of 50,000 and marking the largest monthly gain since April [1] - The report revised previous months' data, with August's non-farm payrolls adjusted from an increase of 22,000 to a decrease of 4,000, and July's data revised down from 79,000 to 72,000, resulting in a total reduction of 33,000 jobs for July and August combined [4] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from August, partly due to nearly 500,000 people entering the labor market in search of work [4] Group 2 - The healthcare sector added approximately 43,000 jobs, while the restaurant services industry saw an increase of about 37,000 jobs, and social assistance services grew by around 14,000 jobs [7] - In contrast, the transportation and warehousing sector experienced a decrease of about 25,000 jobs, and public sector employment continued to decline [7] - The delay in the employment report's release was attributed to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which also postponed the release of the complete October employment report to December 16 [7] Group 3 - The delay in data publication poses challenges for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, as they will not have timely economic data ahead of their final monetary policy meeting of the year on December 9-10 [9] - Despite strong employment data, signs of weakness are emerging, with major companies like Amazon and Verizon announcing layoffs [9] - Consumer confidence has shown a downward trend, with a Michigan University survey indicating a decline in confidence due to concerns over the negative economic impact of the government shutdown [9]

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The final consumer confidence index for November dropped to 51 from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low for the current conditions index at 51.1, which fell by 7.5 points [1][3] - Consumers' assessment of their personal financial situation decreased by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers mentioning high prices negatively impacting their finances, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase in this sentiment [3][4] - Expectations regarding the job market worsened, with 69% of consumers anticipating a rise in unemployment over the next year, up from 64% in October, more than double the 32% from November last year [3][4] Group 2: Market Performance of Consumer Sectors - The consumer sectors in the U.S. stock market have faced significant declines, with the essential consumer goods sector dropping three times more than the S&P 500 index since October, while the non-essential consumer goods sector fell by 5.2%, making them the worst-performing sectors [2][3] - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both non-essential and essential consumer goods sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [2][3] Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, indicating that consumer activity is a critical variable despite market focus on companies like Nvidia [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted food assistance and affected many federal employees' pay, contributing to consumer frustration regarding high prices and shrinking incomes [4][5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level since July 2020, with initial claims for unemployment insurance reaching a four-year high, indicating increasing difficulty for unemployed individuals to find work [4][5]

Group 1 - The UK consumer confidence index has significantly declined in November, marking the largest monthly drop since April this year [1] - Consumer expectations regarding the economy for the next three months fell from -35% in October to -44% in November, while personal financial expectations dropped from -11% to -16%, both reaching their lowest levels since April [1] - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties, including previous government hints at potential income tax increases, which have impacted consumer spending willingness [1] Group 2 - Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium, noted a decrease in public expectations for non-food retail goods and various consumer products as Christmas approaches [2] - Although UK inflation has decreased from its peak, core inflation remains above the 2% policy target, limiting consumer purchasing power and willingness due to stagnant wage growth compared to rising prices [2] - The upcoming annual budget announcement by Chancellor of the Exchequer, on November 26, is anticipated to include measures aimed at boosting consumer confidence and alleviating cost-of-living pressures to support economic growth [2]