全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 来源：环球市场播报 特朗普表示，他期待美联储主席在经济形势良好的情况下降低利率。这是特朗普在即将宣布鲍威尔继任 者之际，迫切寻求提名一位致力于降息的候选人的最新信号。 美国消费者信心连续第五个月下滑 就业看法更趋悲观 特朗普周二在社交媒体发帖称："我希望新任美联储主席在市场表现良好时降低利率，而不是毫无理由 地摧毁市场。任何与我意见相左的人都永远当不上美联储主席！" 特朗普曾多次表示，他希望打破近期的趋势，即良好的经济数据反而会导致市场出现抛售，原因是投资 者担心通胀以及美联储相应的加息。 特朗普写道："过去，一有好消息，市场就上涨。如今，一有好消息，市场反而下跌，原因是大家都认 为利率会立即上调以应对'潜在的'通胀。" 美国消费者信心连续第五个月下降，受访者对劳动力市场和商业环境的看法转趋悲观。 世界大型企业联合会周二公布的数据显示，消费者信心指数从前月的92.9降至89.1，为2008年以来最长 下降周期。 1、美国消费者信心连续第五个月下滑 就业看法更趋悲观 2、特朗普称美联储主席应在市场表现良好时降低利率 3 、黄金白银连续两日刷新历史新高 避险需求成核 ...

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth was reported at +4.3%, significantly above the expected +3.2%, marking the strongest growth in two years and an increase from Q2's +3.8% [2] - Core GDP for Q3 reached +2.9%, exceeding expectations by 30 basis points and the highest since Q1's +3.3% [3] Consumer Spending - Consumption contributed positively to GDP growth, reported at +3.5%, up from the anticipated +2.7% [2] Price Index - The Price Index for Q3 came in at +3.8%, exceeding expectations of +2.7% and the previous quarter's +2.1% [2] Durable Goods Orders - Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for October showed a decline of -2.2%, below the consensus estimate of -1.1%, marking the fourth negative print of 2025 [4] - Excluding volatile Transportation costs, Durable Goods Orders showed a slight increase of +0.2% in October, the weakest since April [5] Market Implications - Stronger economic growth and productivity may hinder the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, particularly at the upcoming January FOMC meeting, which had a low probability of a cut prior to these reports [6] - Market participants are reacting to these economic indicators, leading to a decline in indexes ahead of the trading session [6] Upcoming Data - December Consumer Confidence is expected to improve to 91.7 from 88.7, and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers for November are anticipated to be relatively muted [7]

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined for the fifth consecutive month, matching the longest streak since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting households' concerns over high prices, the job market, and economic outlook [1] - Despite a slight recovery in the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, businesses have turned optimistic about the next six months, with significant increases in business conditions, new orders, and employment expectations [1] Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's composite economic index fell from 92.9 to 89.1, marking the longest decline since 2008 [1] - The current conditions index dropped to 116.8, the lowest since February 2021, with a 9.5-point decrease [1] - The future expectations index remained at 70.7, below the 80 threshold that typically indicates a recession, for the 11th consecutive month [1] Employment and Business Outlook - Consumer sentiment regarding current business conditions turned slightly negative in December, with 18.7% rating conditions as "good," down from 21.0% in November [3] - The perception of the job market also weakened, with the percentage of consumers believing jobs are "plentiful" dropping from 28.2% to 26.7% [3] - The proportion of consumers expecting job opportunities to "decrease" rose from 26.8% to 27.4% [3] Inflation and Policy Concerns - Key concerns among consumers include prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and political issues, with increased attention to immigration, war, and personal finance matters [4] - Despite an overall pessimistic outlook, the degree of pessimism has eased compared to November, possibly due to reduced negative comments on prices and inflation [4] - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased after a rise in November, while optimism regarding stock market performance reached its highest level since January 2025 [4] Consumer Spending Trends - Consumers are becoming more cautious about purchasing big-ticket items, with an increase in those planning not to buy [5] - Expectations for new car purchases continue to decline, while second-hand car purchase plans are on the rise [6] - Overall spending trends are shifting towards lower-priced items and necessary services, with a decline in vacation plans and travel intentions [6] Income and Demographic Insights - The net perception of current household financial situations has fallen into negative territory for the first time in four years, although future financial expectations are the most positive since January [7] - Confidence has declined across all age groups, but younger consumers remain more optimistic compared to older groups [7] - The proportion of consumers believing a recession is "unlikely" has slightly increased, while those who think a recession is "somewhat likely" has risen again [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that U.S. consumer confidence has declined for the fifth consecutive month, reflecting growing pessimism regarding the labor market and business environment [1][2] - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1 in December, down from 92.9 in the previous month, marking the longest streak of declines since the 2008 financial crisis [1] - Four out of five components of the overall index decreased, with one component showing significant weakness, highlighting concerns about prices, inflation, tariffs, trade, and political factors [1] Group 2 - High price levels and concerns about a weakening job market have continuously suppressed consumer sentiment, keeping the index at low levels since the pandemic [2] - Current trends show a slowdown in U.S. job growth and an increase in unemployment rates, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, exacerbating household anxiety about the economic outlook [2] - Economists predict that hiring activity will remain sluggish next year, with limited improvement in the unemployment rate, which may continue to pressure consumer confidence [2]

Group 1 - December consumer confidence from the Conference Board is expected to be around 91 but comes in at 89.1, indicating a disappointment [1] - Last month's consumer confidence was revised from 88.7 to 92.9, making the current figure of 89.1 the largest since this revision [2] - The present situation index is reported at 116.8, marking the weakest level since February 2021 [3] Group 2 - Richmond Fed Manufacturing index is at minus 7, the weakest since the previous month of October, while the service side is at minus 11, also the weakest since October [4] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury reached 4.20%, with any yield above 4.19 representing a 3.5-month high [4] - The yield curve has flattened by about 1.5 basis points, with the 2-year yield last reported at 3.55 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the UK economy is expected to see improved growth in 2026, particularly in Q1, driven by consumer confidence and spending [1][2] - The third quarter GDP expenditure details showed minimal revisions, indicating a more balanced growth structure compared to the second quarter, which was heavily reliant on increased government spending [1][2] - The government's decision to postpone the planned increase in personal income tax is expected to bolster consumer confidence and support household spending [1][2] Group 2 - Following the finalization of the fiscal budget, GDP growth rate is anticipated to accelerate in the first quarter of 2026 [1][2] - This trend is likely to enhance labor demand and alleviate concerns regarding a slowdown in the job market [1][2] - Despite high inflation, consumers are expected to reduce their savings rate to maintain spending, which will support ongoing economic recovery [1][2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国消费者信心在12月小幅回升，但升幅低于市场预期，整体情绪仍处于低位，反 映出高生活成本和就业前景不明朗持续压制消费者信心。 为防止就业市场进一步恶化，美联储本月早些时候连续第三次下调利率。不过，决策层在明年的利率路 径上仍存在分歧，需要在支撑就业与防范通胀反弹之间寻求平衡。 密歇根大学周五公布的数据显示，12月消费者信心指数终值上升1.9点至52.9，略低于经济学家给出的 53.5的预期中值。该指数较前月改善，但仍显著低迷。 密歇根大学消费者调查主任Joanne Hsu在声明中表示，尽管年底出现一些改善迹象，消费者信心仍比 2024 年 12 月低近 30%，家庭收支压力仍然主导着消费者对经济的看法。 从分项指标看，当前状况指数下滑至50.4，创历史新低，而预期指数则升至四个月高点。消费者对购买 汽车、家电等大额商品的当前购买条件评价恶化至纪录最低水平，显示高物价环境仍显著抑制消费意 愿。 分析指出，生活成本高企以及对就业市场的担忧，是拖累消费者信心徘徊在历史低位附近的主要原因。 个人财务状况的不安情绪，已成为未来家庭支出前景面临的重要风险因素，尽管迄今为止消费整体仍保 持韧性。 就业 ...

Group 1 - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rose by 1.9 to 52.9 in December, but this increase was below the expected median of 53.5 [2][6] - The current conditions index fell to a record low of 50.4, while the expectations index reached a four-month high [2][6] - Concerns over high living costs and anxiety about the job market are keeping consumer confidence near record lows, with worries about personal financial situations posing risks to household spending [2][6] Group 2 - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level in four years, with economists predicting only moderate job growth and limited improvement in the unemployment rate next year [2][6] - Nearly two-thirds of respondents expect the unemployment rate to continue rising over the next year, despite slight improvements in labor market expectations [2][6] - Consumers anticipate a 4.2% annual increase in prices over the next year, the lowest expected rate in nearly a year, and a long-term inflation rate of 3.2% over the next five to ten years [2][6]

澳新银行-Roy Morgan周五公布的数据显示，新西兰12月份的消费者信心升至四年多来的最高水平，信 用卡支出数据显示非必需消费品支出有所增长。12月消费者信心指数从11月份的98.4跃升至101.5。数据 高于100表示乐观，低于100则代表悲观。澳新银行首席经济学家Sharon Zollner在一份声明中说，抵押 贷款持有者更热衷于消费。Zollner说："近期利率走向的变化是否会影响这种情绪，或者（央行总裁） 关于利率将在相当长一段时间内保持低水平的令人宽慰的言论是否会……使消费意愿继续提升，这将是 1月份的有趣看点。" 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 澳新银行-Roy Morgan周五公布的数据显示，新西兰12月份的消费者信心升至四年多来的最高水平，信 用卡支出数据显示非必需消费品支出有所增长。12月消费者信心指数从11月份的98.4跃升至101.5。数据 高于100表示乐观，低于100则代表悲观。澳新银行首席经济学家Sharon Zollner在一份声明中说，抵押 贷款持有者更热衷于消费。Zollner说："近期利率走向的变化是否会影响这种情绪，或者（央行总裁） 关于利率将在相当长一段时间内保 ...

该公司联席首席执行官Stuart Miller表示，虽然利率在报告季度内有所下降，但由于可负担性限制因素 持续存在，消费者信心持续疲软，房地产市场仍然面临压力。该公司预计，2026财年Q1将交付1.7万至 1.8万套住宅，住宅销售毛利率将达到15%至16%。(格隆汇) 美国第二大住宅建筑商莱纳建筑(LEN.US)夜盘跌近4%，报113美元。消息面上，莱纳建筑公布2025财年 Q4业绩，收入为93.7亿美元，高于分析师平均预期的90.2亿美元；每股收益为1.93美元，低于预期的 2.22美元；毛利率为17%，低于预期的17.5%。报告期内，新订单同比增长18%、环比下降13%，达到 20,018套，位于此前指引区间的低端；而交付量同比增长4%，达到23,034套。 ...