中金研究 近期市场对美元走势的关注度大幅上升，不仅关心其短期走势，也关注其长期地位。 美元成为国际储备货币 是市场选择，也是制度安排。一个货币如何成为国际货币 ，学 术领域有经济与非经济视角，Barry Eichengreen等（2019）形象地将之比喻为"水星假说"与"火星假说"。所谓的"水星假说"，强调经济因素（比如 经济规模、资本市场发达程度等）决定某货币是否能成为国际货币；所谓的"火星假说"，强调地缘政治等非经 济因素的作用。 一些人士也指出（如法国财政部长德斯坦），美元受益于其国际储备货币地位，享有低融资成本等"特权"。在 不考虑其他因素的情况下，美国债务与其他国家的债务相比，能享受更低的利率。不管是"火星假说"视角还 是"水星假说"视角，美元的国际地位面临的挑战在增多。从"水星假说"视角来看，我们认为美国财政赤字居高 不下，债务风险增加，美元的信用受到质疑。从"火星假说"视角来看，美国为其盟友提供安全保障的意愿与能 力下降，我们认为降低了美元的"安全溢价"。但是在中短期内，我们认为美元在全球储备中仍占据很重要的地 位。 点击小程序查看报告原文 美元成为国际储备货币是市场选择，也是制度安排 不同的货 ...

Group 1 - The countdown to a potential U.S. debt default is underway, with significant economic turmoil expected in the coming months, particularly around the U.S. government's plans to impose tariffs and the expiration of the U.S.-China trade truce [1][2] - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, hitting the debt ceiling, forcing the government to borrow new debt to pay off old debt, which has led to difficulties in long-term bond auctions requiring yields as high as 5% to attract investors [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) since the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a cycle where maturing low-interest bonds must be replaced with high-interest debt, potentially leading to annual interest payments of $1.5 trillion if all debt is refinanced at 4% [2][6] Group 2 - Concerns about the U.S. debt market have been echoed by major financial figures, including JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned of cracks in the market and the inevitability of a crisis, suggesting that preparations are being made for potential fallout [4][5] - The U.S. trade deficit has dramatically increased from $600 billion to over $900 billion since 2020, reflecting a 50% rise, which parallels the increase in national debt, highlighting the challenges posed by the Triffin dilemma [6][7] - The U.S. may resort to aggressive economic measures against China, the EU, and other global economies to address the debt crisis, potentially impacting domestic technology giants as well [9][11]

Group 1 - The U.S. debt crisis is approaching a critical point, with a potential default looming in the next hundred days due to the need to raise the debt ceiling by August [1][3] - The current U.S. debt has reached $36 trillion, and the government is relying on borrowing to manage its obligations, facing challenges in long-term bond auctions that require high yields to attract buyers [1][3] - If all $36 trillion of U.S. debt were to be replaced with a 4% interest rate, annual interest payments would amount to $1.5 trillion, indicating a significant financial burden [3] Group 2 - The root of the U.S. debt crisis lies in the Triffin Dilemma, which necessitates continuous debt expansion to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [5][7] - The U.S. trade deficit has dramatically increased from $600 billion to over $900 billion since 2020, reflecting a more than 50% rise, while the national debt has similarly surged by over 50% [5] - The U.S. may resort to aggressive economic measures against other economies, including China and the EU, to replenish its finances, potentially impacting global economic stability [7]

5月即将过去，本月万众瞩目的黄金市场呈现剧烈震荡行情，国际金价经历了显著的"过山车"式波动。5月初，纽约金价一度跌至3,123美元/盎 司，随后因为地缘冲突升级（中东局势紧张、俄乌和谈停滞）推动避险需求激增，于5月6日最高触及3,448美元/盎司的高位。然后一路下滑， 截至5月29日上午，已经跌到3,285美元/盎司。 实物消费端也出现了明显的调整，国内的婚庆开始流行"租三金"，深圳水贝黄金回收量同比增长超过200%，这似乎说明消费者已经觉得黄金 的价格太高了，消费欲望开始减退。这种行情开始让很多投资者变得焦虑，手里的黄金是否要抛售，还是继续买入？ 让我们来看看本轮黄金市场的根本驱动因素。本轮黄金牛市与之前不太一样，以往大部分时间，黄金价格主要是受到美联储货币政策驱动的。 由于黄金以美元计价，美元走强直接削弱了黄金的吸引力。历史数据显示，美元指数每上涨1%，金价平均下跌0.8%。 不过本轮黄金大牛市，却主要是受到政治因素的影响。首先就是在俄乌冲突爆发后，西方国家冻结了俄罗斯在西方的资产，引发第三世界国家 央行恐慌，开始将美元欧元资产转向黄金。 图1：各国央行和大机构投资者在西方冻结俄罗斯央行海外资产前后在伦敦 ...

2020年，美国受疫情冲击开启无限QE，美联储开动印钞机，每月上千亿地购买各期限国债。而现在， 美国在前两轮低利率周期发的国债陆续到期，只能高利率发新债去置换。如果36万亿美债未来全都换成 4%利率，光利息支出每年就有1.5万亿美元。如果再大规模增发国债，就隐隐有种高息QE的味道了，开 启一个以5%利率印钞购债的壮举，就像一个走投无路的人被迫借下高利贷，解决燃眉之急，但未来违 约的风险更大了。所以哪怕美债上限再度提高，美债危机的风险也只是暂时解除，未来的风险反而更 高。 有人可能会说，年年都说美债要爆，但为什么美债还是好好的？ 数十年来，投资人把美国政府国债视为终极安全资产，每当危机来袭，即使是美国本土爆发的危机，例 如2008年次贷危机，美国国债买气有增而无减，因为全球投资人相信美国政府严肃治国，不履行债务的 情境难以想像。 但现在川普2.0政府执政，关税政策和大而美法案吓坏金融市场，导致诡异现象：美债收益率攀升，美 元却往下栽。 一场悬在人类经济之上的无声风暴正在酝酿——美国国债总额已突破36万亿美元，这座堆积如山的债务 大厦，随时可能在一声巨响中轰然倒塌。 目前，美债违约已经进入倒计时，之后100天，全 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The core focus of the global economic landscape is the rebalancing of inflation and debt, with countries experiencing divergent outcomes based on their debt levels [2] - The U.S. is facing the "Triffin Dilemma" and high fiscal deficit pressures, leading to increased market volatility [2][3] - Current U.S. economic indicators show resilience in consumption and investment, but inflationary pressures may complicate monetary policy [3] Group 2: China's Economic Recovery - China's economy is characterized by a "volatile recovery," with policy-driven consumption and manufacturing focusing on high-quality development [4][5] - The consumption market is rebounding, with retail sales growth of 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, driven by policies like trade-in programs [4] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, with significant contributions from technological innovations [4] Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy in China - China's macroeconomic policy is expected to become more proactive, focusing on "stabilizing growth, managing debt, and promoting transformation" [6][7] - Fiscal policy is set to increase, with a projected deficit of 13.9 trillion yuan and a deficit rate of 4% for 2025, alongside significant special bond issuance [6] - Monetary policy has room for further easing, with expectations for additional rate cuts and liquidity support measures [6] Group 4: Asset Class Outlook - In the asset class outlook, A-shares are seen as relatively undervalued compared to bonds, particularly in high-dividend and technology sectors [8] - Government bond yields are expected to have downward potential, with a flattening yield curve anticipated [8] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to remain stable within the 7.0-7.35 range, influenced by balanced factors [8] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to closely monitor policy trends and industry dynamics to identify structural opportunities amid volatility [9] - The global economy is expected to navigate through a phase of divergence between the U.S. and China, with the latter likely achieving a stable recovery through policy support and structural upgrades [9]

Core Insights - The dominance of the US dollar is facing uncertainty due to geopolitical factors, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves at approximately 58%, the lowest since 1994, while the euro accounts for about 20% [1][2] - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasizes the need to strengthen the euro's international standing by enhancing geopolitical, economic, and legal foundations [1] - The euro has appreciated significantly against the dollar, rising over 9.5% since the beginning of the year, reaching its highest level since December 2021 [1] Group 1: Euro's Position and Challenges - Lagarde's call to enhance the euro's international status aims to promote trade denominated in euros, reducing Europe's vulnerability to unstable capital flows [2] - Despite the euro's recent strength, challenges remain, including lower European external debt issuance compared to the US and lower returns on euro-denominated assets, which hinder the euro's liquidity and market demand [3] - The potential for the euro to replace the dollar as a reserve currency is deemed unrealistic in the short term, as the US economy's fundamentals still outperform those of Europe [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The recent rebound in the US dollar index is attributed to a significant increase in the US consumer confidence index, which rose to 98 in May, marking the largest monthly increase in four years [5] - Analysts express caution regarding the dollar's future, noting ongoing concerns about US economic growth and budget deficits, which may limit the dollar's upward momentum [6] - Non-sovereign currencies, such as stablecoins and commodities like gold, are expected to play a more significant role in the future financial landscape, as they are less tied to a single country's fiscal policies [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the decline of the United States is evident, marked by the downgrade of U.S. debt ratings by major agencies, indicating a significant shift in its global standing [1][3] - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, projected to consume 6.7% of GDP by mid-century, highlighting an unsustainable debt situation [3][5] - The industrial hollowing out of the U.S. is irreversible, with its industrial output dropping from 40% of global production to 15%, significantly lagging behind China [3][5] Group 2 - The decline of the U.S. is both absolute and relative, with China's rapid industrialization and economic growth making the U.S. appear diminished in comparison [5][6] - The root causes of the U.S. decline are internal, particularly the unsustainable debt crisis and industrial hollowing, rather than external factors like China's rise [5][6] - The greed of capital is identified as a fundamental reason for the U.S. decline, stemming from the abandonment of the gold standard and the shift towards debt expansion [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. faces inevitable trade deficits due to the need to maintain dollar hegemony, leading to increased borrowing and a worsening debt crisis [8] - The reliance on cheap currency for resource acquisition has contributed to the industrial hollowing out, making U.S. production less competitive [8] - The decline of the U.S. is deemed inevitable, with China's rise seen as a historical consequence rather than a primary cause [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current dollar cycle exhibits unprecedented characteristics, with its resilience surpassing historical experiences. This cycle shows three unusual behaviors: divergence from reserve currency share, divergence from fiscal and trade deficit expansion, and divergence from high inflation [2][3][7]. Historical Review and Current Characteristics - The dollar cycle has extended for 17 years since 2008, with a 40% increase, marking the longest uptrend since the Bretton Woods system's dissolution. The current dollar index peak exceeds the historical high of the 1990s [5][4]. Unusual Divergences - The first divergence is the decline in the dollar's share of global reserves from over 60% to just above 50% since 2015, despite a strong dollar index [7][10]. - The second divergence involves the fiscal deficit, which has reached nearly 15% of GDP, yet the dollar remains strong, contrary to traditional expectations [7][8]. - The third divergence is the occurrence of 9% inflation in the U.S. without a corresponding depreciation of the dollar, as other developed economies also face high inflation [10][11]. Mechanisms Driving the Dollar Cycle - The dollar cycle is influenced by fundamental, policy, and capital flow mechanisms, with geopolitical factors playing a significant role. The interaction between the real and financial sectors can lead to "overshooting" of the dollar cycle [3][13]. - The fundamental aspect is crucial, as the dollar index correlates with the U.S. GDP growth relative to other countries. The relative strength of the dollar is maintained as long as the U.S. economy performs better than its competitors [11][13]. Policy and Capital Flow Influences - The U.S. monetary policy's relative tightness supports the dollar, while international capital inflows, particularly into U.S. equities, have shifted from traditional treasury purchases [17][19]. - The dollar's strength is also supported by the unique structure of the U.S. economy, which has become less dependent on global trade, allowing it to withstand the negative effects of a strong dollar [14][15]. Potential Downturn of the Dollar - There are indications that the dollar may have entered a downtrend due to weakening relative advantages of the U.S. economy, increasing global competition, and structural changes in the asset-liability dynamics of the U.S. [20][21]. - The U.S. has strong incentives to seek a weaker dollar, as it can help address the rising current account deficit and manage its extensive foreign liabilities [21][23]. Future Considerations - The future trajectory of the dollar will depend on the internal correction mechanisms within the U.S. economy, influenced by various political and economic forces [26][27]. - The ongoing competition in technology, particularly with China, and the evolving geopolitical landscape will also play critical roles in determining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [27][23].

Group 1 - The recent surge in US Treasury yields has raised concerns about investor sell-off risks, following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to increasing government debt and interest payment ratios [1] - All three major international credit rating agencies have now downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, with Fitch and Standard & Poor's having made similar adjustments previously [1] - The global monetary system, while still centered around the US dollar, is facing challenges as the internationalization of currencies like the renminbi and euro progresses, indicating a shift towards a more diversified monetary system [1] Group 2 - The dominance of the US dollar has led to issues such as "weaponization" of currency and the Triffin dilemma, prompting a rebalancing of the international monetary system [2] - There is an increasing exploration of digital currencies for cross-border trade and investment services, which may enhance the role of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) by the International Monetary Fund [2] - Despite a decline in trust towards dollar assets, the dollar's position as a primary currency remains difficult to challenge, although a diversified and multipolar global monetary system is anticipated [2]