Core Viewpoint - Moody's projects that Ukraine's economy will further slow down in 2025, with real GDP growth decreasing from 2.9% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [1] Economic Outlook - The expected decline in real GDP growth indicates a challenging economic environment for Ukraine in the coming years [1] - The forecasted growth rates suggest a potential stagnation in economic recovery efforts [1]

继2023年初以来最强劲的消费月份后，美国消费在4月踩下了刹车，而通胀依然温和，与经济放缓的趋 势一致。这些数据反映出，在近两年来最疲软的消费季度后，许多美国消费者对经济前景仍存隐忧。尽 管更高的进口关税尚未在商品价格中全面体现，但消费者信心已下滑，个人财务前景指数创下历史新 低。 ...

金十数据5月21日讯，澳新银行研究分析师表示："穆迪评级下调美国信用评级，说明了特朗普关税政策 的现实。经济放缓和通胀走强的可能性随后重新点燃了人们对黄金的兴趣。"与此同时，共和党议员在 特朗普减税和支出法案上的分歧加剧了财政不确定性，进一步压低了美元，支撑了黄金。 澳新银行：经济放缓和通胀走强的可能性重新点燃对黄金的兴趣 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data for April shows both highlights and weaknesses. The actual growth is still resilient, the supply - demand relationship is stable, and consumption recovery exceeds expectations. However, fixed - asset investment growth is low, the real estate market is weak, and the price center remains low [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak due to the continuous expectation of oversupply and the decline in costs. The price of most commodities has different trends, such as gold in shock adjustment, copper supported by inventory decline, etc. [10][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - The six - caliber data in April (industry, service, export, social retail, investment, real estate sales) are lower than the previous values. There are three highlights: strong actual growth, stable supply - demand, and faster - than - expected consumption recovery. There are also three weaknesses: low fixed - asset investment, weak real estate, and low price center [8]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - Supply shows no significant reduction, with the weekly output rising to 16,630 tons and the开工 rate reaching 48%. Demand is weak, and inventory has shifted from slight destocking to restocking, with the SMM weekly inventory at 132,000 tons. The price of lithium ore has dropped rapidly, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is in shock adjustment, and silver is in shock decline. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][19][21]. 3.2.3 Copper - The decline in internal and external inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 1. There are macro and micro news, such as Fed officials' attitude towards interest rates and new cooperation in the copper industry [23][25]. 3.2.4 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is in range - bound shock, and alumina should pay attention to the impact of the ore end. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][26][28]. 3.2.5 Zinc - Zinc faces pressure at the upper level. The trend intensity is - 1. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are related economic news [29][30]. 3.2.6 Lead - Lead is in range - bound shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are related economic news [32][33]. 3.2.7 Tin - Tin is in narrow - range shock. The trend intensity is - 1. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are macro and industry news [35][36][38]. 3.2.8 Stainless Steel and Nickel - Stainless steel has a clear cost bottom but lacks upward drive. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. There are news about Indonesia's policy adjustment on nickel products and the production progress of nickel - related projects [40][45]. 3.2.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has upstream复产 and oversupply, and polysilicon has a weak fundamental and downward - driving disk. The trend intensities are - 2 and - 1 respectively. There is news about the US anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on metal silicon [50][52]. 3.2.10 Iron Ore - The short - term bullish factors are realized, and the upward drive slows down. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of relevant contracts and spot prices have changed, and there is news about real estate investment [53][54]. 3.2.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both are in weak shock due to the continuous decline of raw materials. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about steel production [56][58]. 3.2.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon may have a cost decline and wide - range shock, and silicomanganese is supported by the spot price and in wide - range shock. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about the iron alloy market [59][61]. 3.2.13 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is in weak shock with the decline of molten iron. Coke is also in shock. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about coal prices and warehouse receipts [63][66]. 3.2.14 Steam Coal - Steam coal has an increase in coal mine inventory and is in weak shock. The trend intensity is 0. There are quotes for domestic and foreign steam coal and information on positions [67][69]. 3.2.15 Logs - Logs are in weak shock [70].

美联储威廉姆斯：今年经济可能会放缓。 ...

金十数据5月15日讯，汇丰银行在一份报告中说，鉴于最近全球的不确定性，英国经济增长在第一季度 增长0.7%超出预期之后，可能只会走下坡路。在一次性投资的推动下，投资强劲有所帮助，但从可能 的出口前期负荷来看，第二季度贸易可能出现下滑。此外，水电费上涨以及工资税和最低工资上调导致 的企业劳动力成本也将受到冲击。不过，第一季度的经济增长仍然不错，特别是考虑到通胀下降和劳动 力市场仍然有弹性。预计经济增长0.6%的英国央行将把这解读为其"谨慎而渐进"的降息方式的有力支 撑。 英国强劲的经济增长并不能阻挡经济放缓的到来 ...

Point72资产管理公司：我们将会出现经济放缓，美联储也不会立即采取行动。 ...

美联储理事库格勒：尽管经济放缓，但价格仍有上升的预期，增速不会像之前那样快。 ...

然而，美联储（Fed）官员已对潜在的滞胀表示担忧。行长迈克尔·巴尔警告称，提高关税可能会扰乱供 应链。 从日线图来看，布林带显示，美元兑加元汇率已经从上轨1.4186回落，但仍处于中轨1.3909附近，表明 上行趋势并未完全结束。 MACD指标显示，DIFF线与DEA线目前交叉向上，MACD柱状图由负转正，表明短期动能正在积累， 有利于美元对加元汇率反弹。同时，RSI指标处于48附近的中性区域，并没有出现明显的超买或超卖信 号，这意味着汇价仍有进一步上行的空间。 值得注意的是，CCI指标近期从超卖区域(-130)急速反弹至目前的190.8837水平，已经进入超买区域，这 可能预示短期内存在回调风险。 周一（5月12日）亚市盘中，加拿大劳动力市场数据公布后，美元/加元升至接近1.3920。加拿大失业率 以快于预期的速度加速上升至6.9%。美元兑加元正试图连续第四个交易日保持其位置，美元/加元徘徊 在1.3940左右。该货币对得到支持，因为随着周末在瑞士举行的美中贸易谈判取得进展，美元（USD） 走强。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特将与中国官员在日内瓦进行的为期两天的会谈描述为富有成效，预计将在 周一上午的简报中公 ...

美联储理事库格勒：短期内经济可能会出现放缓。 ...