Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy continues to slow down in August, with a mix of resilience in production and pressure on demand, highlighting the need for policy support to boost consumption and investment [1] Production Sector - Industrial added value growth has slowed year-on-year but remains at a relatively high level, with policy-related and energy supply industries maintaining vitality [1] - External demand is under pressure, leading to a negative growth rate in export delivery value [1] - There is a divergence within the service sector, with strong performance in technology and finance but weakness in business services [1] Consumption Sector - Retail sales growth has declined year-on-year, although summer economic activities and policy support have bolstered some upgrades and durable goods consumption [1] - Essential consumption and real estate-related consumption are under pressure, indicating insufficient internal recovery momentum [1] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment growth rates, both cumulative and monthly, are declining across various components, necessitating increased policy measures to stimulate investment [1] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain a slow but stable trajectory with structural optimization, although demand recovery will take time [1] - There is a need for policies to focus on boosting demand, enhancing consumption willingness, optimizing investment structure, and mitigating risks in key areas to ensure stable economic operation [1]

Core Insights - In August, Russia's oil and petroleum product sales revenue fell to $13.51 billion, marking a decrease of $920 million from the previous month, reaching the lowest level since the onset of the Ukraine conflict [1] - Russia's oil and fuel export volume was 7.3 million barrels per day in August, a decrease of 70,000 barrels per day month-on-month [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Russia's oil production was 9.3 million barrels per day in August, down by 30,000 barrels per day, aligning with the quotas set by OPEC and OPEC+ [1] - The IEA highlighted that Russia's energy sector is facing challenges from drone attacks on refineries and export pipelines, as well as Western sanctions [1] - The price of Russia's flagship Urals crude oil has dropped to around $56 per barrel, below the Western-imposed cap of $60 per barrel [1] - The IEA stated that Russia's oil export revenue is nearing a five-year low, leading to reduced tax revenues and further exacerbating the slowdown of the Russian economy [1]

Group 1 - Canada unexpectedly lost 65,500 jobs in August 2025, leading to a national unemployment rate of 7.1%, the highest level since the pandemic [1] - The labor market is showing signs of significant slowdown, increasing employment pressure [1] Group 2 - The market is betting that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will likely announce an interest rate cut at the monetary policy meeting on September 17 [2] - A potential interest rate cut could have a direct impact on loans and consumer spending [3] Group 3 - High unemployment indicates an economic slowdown, and the central bank may use interest rate cuts to stimulate consumption and investment [4] - The expected rate cut could lower loan rates, providing relief for real estate and corporate financing [4] - Homeowners with variable-rate mortgages may see a decrease in monthly payments, easing financial pressure [4] - Car buyers may benefit from lower auto loan rates, reducing purchasing costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's Chief Market Strategist David Kelly observes signs of a gradual slowdown in the US economy, which is expected to put pressure on cyclical sectors such as manufacturing and retail [1] Economic Impact - A reduction in the benchmark interest rate is unlikely to reverse the current economic situation [1] - Kelly suggests that if stock market investors believe that rate cuts will benefit the overall direction and profitability of the economy, they are misunderstanding the situation [1] Market Sentiment - When the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it reduces interest income and leads to a belief that further rate cuts are forthcoming, causing individuals to delay borrowing [1] - This situation fosters a perception that the Federal Reserve is fearful of an economic recession, which in turn instills fear of recession among the public [1]

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $41.06, with an opening price of $40.88 and a current price of $41.12, reflecting a 0.63% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is $41.14, while the lowest was $40.69, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] Group 2 - Recent data revisions have significantly reduced the average monthly job growth from 147,000 to 71,000, with the information, professional services, and leisure hotel sectors experiencing the most substantial declines [3] - Economists attribute the downward revision to flaws in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' "birth-death model," which estimates new business hiring and layoffs, suggesting that the model may overestimate employment data during economic downturns [3] - Goldman Sachs economists warn that the recent revisions may exaggerate the extent of economic weakness, estimating that actual monthly job growth is closer to 100,000, which is more resilient than the revised figure of 71,000 [3] Group 3 - The scale of the data revisions has caused significant turmoil in Washington, leading to increased scrutiny of the credibility of government data [4] - Vice President JD Vance criticized the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data, while White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt pressured Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates immediately [4] Group 4 - London silver experienced a decline yesterday, breaking below the 5-day moving average, with the daily RSI turning downward [5] - The silver market is currently watching for support levels at $40.45 or $40.00, while resistance levels are at $41.10 or $41.40 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole meeting indicated a dovish shift from Powell, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September due to ongoing economic slowdown, although the pace and extent of cuts remain uncertain due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1]. Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with July durable goods orders showing a significant year-on-year decline and negative month-on-month growth. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose in August, but the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell. Additionally, refinery utilization rates slightly decreased, and steel production continued to decline year-on-year [3]. - In Europe, economic and inflation indicators are stabilizing, with the Eurozone GDP showing a slowdown in Q2 2025. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone and EU decreased in July, while the CPI in August showed a slight year-on-year increase, with core CPI remaining stable [3]. Policy Insights - In the U.S., weak non-farm payroll data reinforces expectations for interest rate cuts, while Trump's narrowing of the Fed chair candidate list raises concerns about the Fed's independence. In Europe, the ECB may pause rate cuts in the short term, and the euro could have appreciation potential despite political factors. The Bank of Japan maintains its rate hike path but warns of tariff risks, with the next rate cut expected in late 2025 or early 2026 [3].

Group 1 - Trump is actively interviewing 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair position, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy ahead of the current chair's term expiration [3] - Non-farm payroll data shows an increase of 22,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, leading to mixed reactions in the market [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is nearly 90%, with a 60% chance of a 50 basis point cut in October, boosting market sentiment [3] Group 2 - Companies like Intel are facing significant impacts from tariffs, leading to layoffs of 20,000 employees, while Colgate reports sales pressure due to rising costs [3] - Oil prices have dropped to their lowest since May, with Saudi Arabia considering increasing OPEC+ production, which may affect market dynamics [4] - The current market environment is volatile, with short-term rate cut expectations providing temporary support, but long-term economic slowdown risks remain a concern [4]

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising slightly to 4.3%, indicating a slowing economy [1] - The latest jobs figures were lower than economists' expectations, with July's figures revised up by 6,000 to 79,000 jobs added, while June's figures were revised down from 14,000 to a loss of 13,000, marking the first month of job loss since December 2020 [2] - Jobs in the movie and music industry fell by 7,600 to 401,000, while broadcasting jobs dropped by 300 to 333,700 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The largest job gains in August were in health care and social assistance, while employment in the federal government continued to decline [3] - There were drops in mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and wholesale trade, with manufacturing jobs declining by 12,000, totaling a loss of 78,000 for the year [3] Group 3: Wage Trends - Average hourly earnings rose by 10 cents to $36.53, with hourly wages increasing by 3.7% over the past 12 months [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Implications - The slowing economy is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates, as indicated by Chairman Jerome Powell [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari indicated that there is room for the Federal Reserve to lower short-term benchmark interest rates in the near term, although he did not provide a specific timeline for policy easing [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing a cooling process, but Kashkari does not predict an economic recession [1] - There are sufficient reasons to believe that the current economic slowdown will continue and evolve in a moderate manner [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Kashkari estimates the neutral federal funds rate to be around 3%, suggesting that there is potential for rate decreases in the coming years [1] - His statements support market expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a loosening cycle [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Challenges - Current monetary policy faces complex challenges, with inflation levels still above target despite a decline [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, including slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1] - Kashkari emphasized the need for careful balancing between controlling inflation and maintaining full employment [1] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Expectations - Recent economic data indicates a weakening growth momentum in the U.S., particularly with significant contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - This has heightened market expectations that the Federal Reserve may start lowering interest rates in the upcoming September or November meetings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent firing of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump has heightened political risk concerns and boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices rose to a two-week high, closing at $3,393.43 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.83% following the announcement [1]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22%, and the yield curve for government bonds steepened, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged to over 87% [1]. Group 2: Catalysts for Gold Price Movement - The continuation of gold's upward trend in the short term depends on three key catalysts: the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts in September, upcoming GDP and PCE data confirming economic slowdown, and whether the dispute between Trump and the Fed escalates into a legal or political crisis [3]. - If the GDP and PCE data indicate economic weakness, it could further increase the likelihood of rate cuts, supporting gold prices [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - If the independence of the Federal Reserve continues to be undermined, gold may enter a structural bull market, although concerns about inflation could lead to rising long-term interest rates [3]. - The current environment, characterized by suppressed short-term rates and political instability, is generally favorable for gold [3].