Core Viewpoint - The ADP report indicates a surprising decline in private sector employment in June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [3][4]. Employment Data Summary - In June, U.S. private sector jobs decreased by 33,000, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][7]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job gains, with a total increase of 32,000 in production jobs, partially offsetting the overall decline [8]. Economic Sentiment and Future Outlook - Employers are becoming increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focusing on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average job growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700, the lowest since the early pandemic [10]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to a four-year low, indicating a potential shift in economic sentiment [10]. Wage Growth and Employment Trends - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [10]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Group 1 - The US dollar index has experienced its worst start in nearly fifty years, dropping below 97 due to concerns over trade friction, fiscal deficits, and economic slowdown [1][3] - Unexpectedly high job vacancies reported by the US Labor Department indicate resilient labor demand, while a significant tax and spending bill passed by the Senate has led to a rapid increase in long-term yields [1][3] - The market is reassessing the risks of a "too bearish" outlook on the dollar, with the dollar recovering nearly half of its losses against the yen and Swiss franc following the data release [1][3] Group 2 - Despite debt pressures casting a shadow over the dollar, short positions have reached extreme levels since the beginning of the year [3] - If the fiscal bill passes in the House, market focus will shift from the deficit to short-term demand stimulation and corporate profit boosts, potentially supporting the dollar [3] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained a wait-and-see approach but has not ruled out further rate cuts this year, creating a balance between bullish and bearish sentiments for the dollar [3] Group 3 - The ten-year US Treasury yield has returned to 4.25%, indicating that traders are preparing for a re-inflation scenario driven by fiscal stimulus [4] - Key upcoming events include the tariff negotiations on July 9, which could significantly impact the dollar's performance depending on the outcomes [4] - The market is advised to be cautious of overly bearish positions on the dollar, with short-term strategies favoring buying the dollar against high beta currencies [4] Group 4 - The future of the dollar depends on three factors: whether the trade window closes, the resilience of US data, and any adjustments in the Federal Reserve's language [5] - July is expected to be a month of both risks and opportunities for the dollar, with potential for recovery if conditions tilt in favor of bullish sentiment [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the US manufacturing sector remains sluggish in June, with new orders weak and input prices rising, suggesting that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue to hinder businesses' planning capabilities [2] - The latest data shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly from May's six-month low of 48.5 to 49.0, marking the fourth consecutive month below 50, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy [2] - Despite economic uncertainties, the labor market remains stable, as evidenced by an unexpected rise in job vacancies in May to the highest level since November of the previous year, with job openings increasing from a revised 7.4 million in April to 7.77 million in May, surpassing economists' expectations [2] Group 2 - COMEX gold prices are currently trading at $3342.10 per ounce, down 0.23%, with a daily high of $3354.80 and a low of $3340.70 [3] - The short-term outlook for COMEX gold indicates resistance levels at $3380-$3390 and support levels at $3230-$3240 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England's Governor Bailey has indicated signs of economic and labor market slowdown in the UK [1] Group 2 - The economic indicators suggest a potential deceleration in growth, which may impact future monetary policy decisions [1] - Labor market conditions are showing signs of weakening, which could lead to changes in employment rates and wage growth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年6月BCI读数为49.3，较前值下行1.0个点。这与前期出来的EPMI数据在指向上一致。6月经济继续确认边际放缓迹象。 第二， 销售和利润前瞻指数同步回落，环比分别下行2.7、2.9个点。我们估计可能和需求端一系列边际变化有关：一是房地产在经历放缓脉冲，6月前28天30城 成交同比为-17.8%；二是从港口集装箱吞吐量和EPMI的6月出口订货指标来看，外需存在放缓特征，可能和海外进口商利用关税平静期补库需求已集中释放有 关；三是"国补"换档、第三批资金待下达期间，家电3C产品等终端销售不排除存在短期扰动。 第三， 企业库存前瞻指数环比上行1.5个点。在销售和利润下降的条件下，逻辑上企业不会主动补库；所以库存上升属于需求放缓带来的被动补库。实际上5月规 上工业企业数据就已经显现出类似特征，在报告《5月企业盈利增速出现调整的原因》中，我们指出"价格回落下拉名义库存；但需求弱于供给、产销率下降导致实 际库存有一定程度的被动上升"。 第四， 企业投资和招工前瞻指数一上一下，投资小幅上行0.1个点，招工下行1.4个点。我们理解投资存在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a concerning trend in the U.S. economy, indicating that personal income and spending have declined, suggesting a potential technical recession [1] Economic Indicators - Personal income was expected to grow by approximately 0.3%, but instead, it has shown negative growth [1] - Personal spending figures are also disappointing, reflecting a negative growth trend [1] Economic Outlook - The decline in personal income and spending raises the likelihood of an economic slowdown in the second quarter, potentially leading to negative economic activity [1] - Aside from the core PCE data being slightly above expectations, there were no other surprises in inflation, indicating a broader economic weakness [1] - Overall signs point to a weakening economy, with the possibility that it has already entered a technical recession [1]

英国央行行长贝利：近期数据显示经济放缓迹象逐渐显现。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barr stated that tariffs could potentially lead to economic slowdown and increased unemployment, indicating that monetary policy is currently in a favorable position while the Fed observes economic developments [1] Group 1 - Tariffs may contribute to economic slowdown [1] - Potential rise in unemployment due to tariffs [1] - Federal Reserve is in a favorable position regarding monetary policy [1]

惠誉评级：泰国银行业在经济放缓的背景下面临短期挑战。 ...