Core Viewpoint - HTFX suggests that despite the seemingly strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for May, underlying signals indicate potential weaknesses in the labor market, which may lead to a shift in the dollar's performance and prompt the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle sooner than expected [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The May job additions were reported at 139,000, exceeding the market expectation of 125,000, but previous data has been significantly revised downwards, with March's job additions cut from 224,000 to 120,000, indicating a trend of downward revisions [1][3]. - HTFX anticipates that the May employment increase will likely be revised down to around 100,000 in the future, reflecting a fragile foundation for current employment growth, particularly among small businesses [1][3]. Group 2: Small Business Impact - The ongoing downward revision trend highlights the "inflated" nature of the data and reveals vulnerabilities in employment growth, especially within small enterprises, which are more sensitive to interest rate and cost changes [3]. - The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that the small business hiring sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a rapid decline in employment expansion momentum [3]. Group 3: Future Employment Projections - Tombs projects that by the end of 2025, employment in key sectors such as transportation, wholesale, and retail may decrease by approximately 50,000 due to the "overdraft effect" from prior cost expectations [4]. Group 4: Dollar and Federal Reserve Outlook - HTFX believes that while the dollar index remains relatively strong, continued weak employment data and easing inflation could lead the Federal Reserve to potentially start a rate cut process as early as September, marking a significant turning point for the forex market [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming revisions to U.S. employment data, small business confidence indicators, and statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding the labor market, as these factors will directly influence dollar exchange rate fluctuations [6].

Group 1 - The employment report for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, surpassing the market consensus of 125,000, but significant downward revisions to previous months overshadow this positive signal [1] - The initial estimate for March's job growth was revised down from 224,000 to 120,000, indicating a trend of downward adjustments in employment data [1] - The average downward revision of initial estimates to third estimates for non-farm employment data since January 2023 has been approximately 30,000 jobs per month [1] Group 2 - The rising frequency of employment data revisions may be attributed to small businesses delaying data submissions, which are most affected by high interest rates and tariff costs [3] - Small businesses are described as "canaries in the coal mine," facing significant financial challenges that lead to cautious hiring and capital expenditure decisions [3] - Employment in retail, wholesale, and transportation logistics is expected to decline by 50,000 by the end of the year due to the fading "front-loading" effect of tariffs [3] Group 3 - The NFIB small business hiring intentions index has dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating a slowdown in hiring intentions [3][6] - A regional Federal Reserve survey shows that hiring intentions are below the average levels from 2015 to 2024, suggesting a correlation between hiring intentions and actual employment growth [7] - The government sector is also expected to see a reduction in jobs, with a decrease of 59,000 positions this year, including a drop of 22,000 in May [10] Group 4 - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.8% by December, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the labor market [10] - Despite the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, the underlying weakness in the labor market suggests that a shift towards easing policies may be necessary to support businesses [11]

周一（6月9日）亚市盘中，COMEX黄金价格小幅下探，截至目前报3326.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.13%，今 日开盘于3333.40美元/盎司，最高上探3341.00美元/盎司，最低触及3313.10美元/盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国劳工部统计局周五发布数据显示，5月非农就业人口增加13.9万（前值下修至14.7万），高于市场预 期的13万人，在贸易政策不确定性影响下就业增长持续放缓，失业率连续第三个月维持在4.2%，这或 许将为美联储推迟降息提供政策空间。美国经济需要每月创造大约10万个就业岗位，才能跟上劳动年龄 人口的增长。 随着美国总统特朗普在打击移民行动中撤销了数十万移民的临时合法身份，这一数字可能会下降。今年 的大部分就业增长反映出，在特朗普在关税问题上摇摆不定之际，企业囤积工人，经济学家表示，这阻 碍了企业提前计划的能力。美国参议院强硬派保守派共和党人和马斯克对特朗普减税和支出法案的反对 给企业增加了另一层不确定性。雇主不愿裁员，可能令美联储在年底前都持观望态度。金融市场预计， 美联储本月将维持基准隔夜利率在4.25%-4.50%的区间不变，9月份将恢复宽松政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various markets, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place from June 8 to June 13, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that export controls on rare earths align with international practices [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, adding 60,000 ounces, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [1]. - US non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, surpassing market expectations but marking the lowest growth since February [1][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, leading to a divergence in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a pullback while silver continued to strengthen [2][15]. - Concerns arose regarding the potential spread of tariffs on precious metals following President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% [2][15]. - The market anticipates a period of consolidation for gold and silver, with long-term support remaining clear, while short-term fluctuations may arise from US debt issues or potential quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][15]. Group 3: Stock Indices - US stock indices showed an upward trend, with low volatility observed in the previous trading day [3][8]. - As of June 5, the financing balance in China increased by 4.599 billion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [3][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a high cost-effectiveness for long-term capital allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices rose by 1.71% in the night session, supported by a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories by 4.304 million barrels [10]. - The market is currently influenced by seasonal demand peaks and geopolitical issues, although long-term production increases pose a downside risk to prices [10]. - The potential for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran remains a critical factor to monitor in the crude oil market [10]. Group 5: Domestic and International News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restore relations with China, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in trade and other sectors [5]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported an increase in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, reflecting a rise in shipping costs [7].

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Group 1 - President Trump criticized the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that the Fed's inaction on interest rates is a disaster, urging a 1% rate cut [1] - The U.S. labor market showed strong performance in May, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, exceeding Dow Jones' expectation of 125,000 but lower than the revised 147,000 in April [3] - Nearly half of the job growth in May came from the healthcare sector, which added 62,000 jobs, surpassing the average monthly growth of 44,000 over the past year [6] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, both above market expectations of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively [6] - The private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, significantly below the market forecast of 115,000 and marking the lowest level since early 2023 [6][9] - The strong employment data has led to a decrease in the likelihood of interest rate cuts, with the probability of three or more cuts dropping from 36% to 25% [9] Group 3 - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for May will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations that the Fed will maintain current rates in the next policy meeting [10]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices are experiencing a slight decline, currently trading at $3396.20 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.04% [1] - The trading range for today shows a high of $3407.70 and a low of $3384.50, indicating a narrow fluctuation in prices [1][3] - The resistance levels for gold are identified between $3427 and $3437, while support levels are between $3304 and $3314 [3] Group 2 - Nadia Gharbi, a senior economist at Pictet Wealth Management, anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not provide clear signals regarding interest rate actions for July during its meeting [2] - Key developments expected before the July meeting include the end of a 90-day tariff suspension, additional information on Germany's 2025 and 2026 budgets, and upcoming PMI reports and inflation data [2] - The ECB is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and revise down its economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, suggesting a need for moderate monetary policy easing [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a steepening yield curve ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [1] - The increase in yields is influenced by recent employment data, which is constraining the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] - Economists at Pimco predict that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates before later this year unless there is a significant slowdown or contraction in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial following the employment report released last Friday, which showed non-farm payrolls at 177,000 for April, down from a revised 185,000 in March, with a downward adjustment of 58,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the 0.3% increase in March [2] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell significantly in March to the lowest level in six months, and ADP private sector employment data was disappointing, alongside a notable rise in weekly unemployment claims [2] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing survey indicated continued contraction in factory activity for April, and first-quarter GDP showed a decline of 0.3% [2] - The healthy growth in non-farm payrolls and stable unemployment rate has led the Federal Reserve to believe there is no immediate need to lower interest rates [2] - Following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points last year, the Fed has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5% [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected employment report has shifted traders' expectations for the first Fed rate cut in 2025 from June to July, with the probability of a rate cut on June 18 now at 31.8%, down from 50.4% prior to the report [3] - The likelihood of a first rate cut in July has increased from 47% to 57% following the report [3] - Traders anticipate a 25 basis point cut in either of the two months, lowering the federal funds rate to between 4% and 4.25% [3]

跟踪美国就业数据，美联储谨慎观望，黄金震荡等待新指引？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...