Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% and Powell's comments reduced the expectation of a rate cut in September from 65% to 45%, which weakened gold's appeal and increased downward pressure on gold prices [3] - The ADP employment report showed a higher-than-expected increase in private sector jobs for July, and the second quarter GDP growth rate was 3.0%, both of which diminished market expectations for Fed easing and led to gold sell-off [3] - The global macro environment has seen the Trump administration reach several trade agreements and impose high tariffs, which alleviated concerns about the U.S. withdrawing from global affairs, boosting confidence in the dollar but increasing global economic uncertainty [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant decline after a brief correction, indicating a continued weak trend. The 5-day moving average has crossed below multiple longer-term averages, suggesting a bearish outlook [6] - Key resistance is identified at 3310, and as long as gold prices remain below this level, a bearish stance is advised. The primary support level is at 3268, with further support at 3248/3245 if this level is breached [6][7] - On the four-hour chart, gold failed to hold above the previous low of 3302/3301 and instead broke lower, necessitating close monitoring of the downward trend. The key level to watch is 3334, which, if surpassed, could indicate a potential reversal [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has not yet decided on policy adjustments for September, leading to a cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2023 [1][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose 0.4% intraday but closed down 0.12% at 6362.90 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 171.71 points, or 0.38%, to 44461.28 points; the Nasdaq Composite slightly increased by 0.15% to 21129.67 points [1][2]. - The Chinese Golden Dragon Index dropped 1.82% to 7413.12 points, while the Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.89% to 23661.75 points [2]. Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate range, aligning with market expectations, but emphasized the need for further evaluation of tariffs' impact on inflation and the economy [3]. - Powell's comments were interpreted as hawkish, reducing the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September from 64% to 46% according to CME FedWatch [3][4]. - The meeting saw dissent from two Fed governors advocating for a rate cut, indicating internal disagreements on policy timing [8]. Economic Data - The U.S. second-quarter GDP grew by 3%, significantly above the expected 2.4%, with a total GDP of $236,853 billion [11]. - The core PCE price index for the second quarter rose by 2.5%, while the overall PCE index increased by 2.1%, below the expected 2.9% [11]. - July's ADP employment numbers showed an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 75,000 [12]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, consumer stocks, particularly those sensitive to interest rates, experienced declines, reflecting concerns over potential valuation adjustments if rate cuts do not materialize [9]. - The market's response to the Fed's decision was relatively mild, as many participants had already anticipated the direction of interest rates [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts express concerns about the potential overheating of the market, despite recent highs, suggesting that the rapid sell-off and rebound may not indicate overheating but rather a recovery [16].

Core Insights - The US economy shows strong performance, with the dollar on track for its longest consecutive rise since February [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index increased by 0.3%, reaching its highest level since June 23, marking five consecutive days of gains [1] - Recent US economic growth and inflation data exceeded expectations, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [1] Economic Performance - In Q2, US economic activity rebounded slightly due to a modest increase in consumer spending [1] - The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose by 2.5% year-on-year [1] - ADP private sector employment data indicates that the labor market remains robust [1] Market Implications - Market perceptions may suggest that the Fed's future rate cuts will be slower and delayed [1] - If Fed Chair Powell maintains a relatively neutral policy outlook, the dollar's interest rate attractiveness may further increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are fluctuating within a range of $3350 to $3300 ahead of key U.S. data and Federal Reserve policy announcements, with a downward trend being observed [2][4]. Market Analysis - The technical outlook for gold prices indicates a downward resistance path, with prices hovering below the critical resistance level of $3345 as traders remain cautious before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement [3][4]. - Following a rebound from a three-week low of $3302, gold prices are under pressure as traders hesitate to establish new positions, awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision on the U.S. Q1 GDP [4][5]. - The U.S. economy is expected to show an annualized growth of 2.4% in Q2, a recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1, while core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) are projected at 2.4%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter [4]. Federal Reserve Expectations - Disappointing U.S. economic data could reignite market expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, starting in September, which would likely weaken the dollar and boost gold prices [5]. - Conversely, stronger-than-expected U.S. data may counter these expectations, strengthening the dollar and negatively impacting gold prices [6]. - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% in July, as policymakers assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and growth [7]. Market Sentiment - According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 64% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September [8]. - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cuts could strengthen dovish expectations, supporting non-yielding gold prices and potentially raising questions about the Fed's independence, which may negatively affect the dollar [9]. Technical Analysis - The short-term technical outlook for gold prices remains unchanged ahead of the Federal Reserve's decisions, with prices appearing weak below the critical resistance level of $3345 [12][13]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the midpoint, currently near 47, indicating bearish potential [14]. - If selling pressure re-emerges, gold prices may retest the three-week low of $3302, with further declines potentially testing the July 9 low of $3283 [15]. - The last line of defense for gold buyers is at the June 30 low of $3248, while reclaiming the $3345 level is crucial for initiating a meaningful rebound, targeting the next resistance at $3380 and aiming for $3400 [16][17].

Gold Market - Gold prices have continued to decline slightly, but the downward momentum has noticeably slowed, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern [2] - This week, significant data releases including U.S. employment figures, inflation data, and Q2 GDP growth, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, may impact market sentiment [2] - Market predictions are generally pessimistic, with the effects of tariff policies on the U.S. economy becoming more apparent [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold this month; a rate cut could raise questions about its independence and potentially lead to a surge in inflation, undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a continued oscillating trend, with long-term moving averages acting as a mid-term dividing line [2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a limited rebound, but fundamental pressures are increasing, potentially leading to a downward break in the long-term trend [4] - OPEC+ representatives have indicated a temporary plan to restore production, with expectations that Saudi Arabia and partners will approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September [4] - If the new production plan is approved, eight core OPEC+ members will fully reverse the 2.2 million barrels per day cut implemented in 2023 a year earlier than planned [4] - Seasonal demand provides some support for oil prices, but weakening consumption may create pressure from both supply and demand sides, with a long-term possibility of prices testing the $55 per barrel level [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a significant decline, indicating that the upward trend is likely complete, although short-term divergence appears excessive [6] - The price has entered a previous small range, forming a downward structure, with a focus on the resistance level at $5.63 per pound [6] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candle, signaling the completion of an upward structure and the beginning of a mid-term adjustment [7] - The 4-hour chart indicates significant overselling, suggesting a potential for adjustment, with attention on the resistance level at 41,260 [7]

"老师我亏损了，套单了，行情会涨吗？会跌吗？我该怎么办？"每一天我总能遇到无数的投资者询问这些 问题，或者是一个人操作导致的亏损，也或是有指导老师导致的亏损. 小时线上多空的轮转比较明显，前三天还是走的上行趋势通道，而后两天直接回吐所以涨幅重新构筑了新 的下行通道出来，那么3350这个位置就是我们今天继续看空的关键点位，毕竟4小时和日线都是跌破了我 们的关键支撑，那么转换思路看空就是必然了！ 本周除美联储外，加拿大央行也将于周三召开货币政策会议，预计将维持利率不变，日本央行则将在周三 晚些时候召开会议。 周二：美国消费者信心指数周三：ADP就业数据，美国初步GDP，加拿大央行货币政策决定，美国成屋签 约销售，美联储货币政策决定，日本央行货币政策决定 周四：美国PCE物价指数，每周初请失业金人数，周五：美国非农就业报告，ISM制造业PMI 对于今天黄金走势的看法！ 黄金上周五出乎所有人的预料，延续弱势下跌，触及我们上周说到的4小时趋势线3335一线之后直接下跌 走弱，那么对于目前的趋势上来看，趋势偏空无反弹，那么弱势就将还会持续，只有跌幅到一定的位置筑 底之后才会有买盘的进场，而本周初则延续看空即可！ 但殊归通 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is mainly in a wide - range oscillation. The probability of unexpected confrontation is decreasing, but market uncertainties still exist. Silver has a significant advantage over gold during the stage when domestic and foreign risk preferences are opened and is currently in an upward trend. Attention should be paid to whether the change in photovoltaic expectations affects the improvement of the term structure of silver demand expectations [2]. - The global trade situation shows signs of easing, which is one of the main reasons for the pressure on gold prices. The trade agreements between the US and other countries boost market risk preferences and reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. - The robust performance of US economic data is another factor driving down gold prices. Strong economic data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level, and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [3]. 3. Summary by Related Information Impact of Trade Situation on Precious Metals - The US has reached or is expected to reach trade agreements with multiple countries. The trade agreement between the US and Japan reduces the automobile import tariff to 15% and exempts some goods from punitive tariffs. The US - EU trade negotiation also shows positive progress, with an expected 15% benchmark tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% level. These reduce investors' concerns about economic turmoil and weaken the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset [2]. Impact of Economic Data on Precious Metals - As of the week of July 19, the US initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest in three months, far lower than the expected 226,000, indicating a stable labor market. The US composite PMI in July rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6, and the service PMI climbed to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic expansion. These data support the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level and push up the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, leading to a decline in gold prices [2][3].

Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is the weakness of the US dollar, which has shown its worst performance since 1973 in the first half of this year [1] - The performance of US Treasury bonds has also been poor, with a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow during periods of heightened uncertainty [1] - In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has significantly increased, with total assets under management (AUM) rising by 41% to $383 billion, and total holdings increasing by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, spot gold closed at $3,350.05, showing slight fluctuations, with a "deep V" pattern reflecting intensified market dynamics [1] - Economic data has been strong, suppressing rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar, while tariff policies have raised inflation expectations, driving investors to allocate to gold for risk hedging [1] - Gold is currently at a balance point between short-term economic strength and long-term inflation concerns, highlighting its safe-haven value [1] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting potential rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: This week, London gold rose 0.09%, and London silver rose 2.05%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 89.4 to 87.5. Gold prices remained in a narrow - range oscillation. Given the strong US economic data, gold is hard to show a trend. Silver is relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to correct. If silver breaks through 9000 yuan/kg, it may reach around 40 dollars in the third quarter, but there is downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weakening silver paste demand [10]. - **Copper**: Downstream buyers purchase at low prices, and the macro - sentiment improves marginally, supporting price increases. Domestically, copper inventories decrease, and the spot premium strengthens. Globally, total inventories increase mainly due to rising overseas inventories. Uncertainties exist in the macro - environment, but there is strong bottom support. It is recommended to hold long - position cautiously and conduct calendar spread arbitrage [88]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - Gold prices were in a narrow - range oscillation with a slight increase. Silver broke through 9000 yuan/kg, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline [10]. - The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures showed different changes. COMEX and ETF positions also had corresponding adjustments [11]. Price Spread - **Overseas**: The London spot - COMEX gold and silver spreads had specific changes. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 15.55 dollars/ounce [16][19]. - **Domestic**: Gold and silver's domestic term spreads and inter - month spreads were at different positions in the historical range. For example, the gold term spread was at the lower end of the historical range [22]. Inventory and Position - COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, and the registered warrant ratios changed. Gold and silver futures inventories also had corresponding adjustments. ETF positions of gold decreased, while those of silver increased [42][44][54][56]. Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10YTIPS continued to decline [65]. Copper Market Performance - LME copper inventories increased significantly, and the 0 - 3 spot discount widened. Domestic copper inventories decreased, and the spot premium strengthened [88][89]. - Four - market copper volatility increased, with COMEX copper volatility reaching around 33% and LME copper at around 7% [94]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The tightness of copper concentrate supply weakened, the spot TC increased marginally, and the smelting loss narrowed. The refined - scrap spread recovered but was still below the break - even point [88]. - **Demand**: In the domestic consumption off - season, orders from processing enterprises weakened marginally in July, but low prices attracted downstream and end - users to buy. The apparent consumption was good, with power grid investment and the growth of air - conditioner and new - energy vehicle production providing support [88]. Trading Strategies - Hold long - position cautiously for single - side trading and conduct calendar spread arbitrage due to the decrease in domestic inventories and the strengthening of the spot premium [88].