Employment Data Analysis - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the anticipated 4.3%[2] - The labor participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.34%[3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.1, while spot gold prices fell by 0.9% to $3,326.1 per ounce[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25% to 0%, and the September cut probability decreased from 100% to approximately 73%[4] - The expected number of rate cuts for the year was revised down from 2.6 to 2.1[4] ADP Employment Data Discrepancy - The ADP report showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected gain of 95,000[4] - The divergence between ADP and non-farm data is attributed to differences in statistical coverage and tariff impacts, with non-farm data considered more reliable[4] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the U.S. economy remains resilient, supported by factors such as balance sheet recovery and accommodative monetary policy[4] - Risks include potential economic downturns, inflation pressures, and geopolitical conflicts that could exceed expectations[4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, reflecting labor market health and influencing global asset pricing. The upcoming June data will further validate the cooling pace of the labor market and impact the Fed's interest rate expectations for September [2]. Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 139,000 jobs in May, despite a downward revision of 95,000 jobs from previous data. The labor department's survey methods have raised concerns about data interpretation, particularly regarding potential overestimation of job creation [3][8]. - The market anticipates June non-farm payrolls to show an increase of 120,000 jobs, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Wage growth is expected to slow, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [6][10]. Institutional Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts an increase of 140,000 to 160,000 jobs for June, while Wells Fargo is more pessimistic, forecasting only 115,000 new jobs. The market median expectation is for an increase of 130,000 jobs [10]. - The disparity in predictions highlights differing views on the labor market's resilience, with some institutions emphasizing the impact of tariffs and government hiring freezes on employment [10]. Historical Data Review - Historical data shows a trend of slowing job growth, with March's initial figure at 228,000 jobs, revised down to 117,000 in April, and May's figure at 139,000. This indicates a pattern of deceleration in job growth, while wage growth remains relatively stable [8]. Market Impact and Strategies - The non-farm payroll data significantly influences the gold market, with expectations of job growth above 200,000 and an unemployment rate below 4.2% likely to strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, negatively impacting gold prices. Conversely, lower job growth and a higher unemployment rate could boost expectations for rate cuts, benefiting gold [12][13]. - The upcoming ISM manufacturing PMI data is also crucial, as a rebound could alleviate recession concerns and positively correlate with non-farm payroll performance [15]. Key Events and Data - The Senate's vote on the "Big Beautiful Bill" and statements from Federal Reserve officials will be closely monitored, as they may provide insights into the Fed's stance on inflation and employment ahead of the non-farm payroll release [16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rebound, with most industrial products rising and agricultural products soaring. The main reasons were the large - scale conflict between Israel and Iran, the improvement of the Sino - US framework agreement, the resilience of the Chinese economy, and the lower - than - expected US inflation boosting the interest - rate cut expectation, which improved market risk appetite [3]. - Multiple factors may cause the commodity market to continue to rebound in the short term, including the Sino - US framework agreement, the improvement of the US economic outlook and the decline of inflation expectations, and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Overseas Situation Analysis - **Sino - US London Consultation Reached a Principle Agreement**: From June 9 - 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a principle agreement on implementing the consensus of the heads - of - state call and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. China's exports may still have a window period for "rush exports" before July, but the export growth rate may decline in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **US: May CPI Lower than Market Expectations**: In May, the overall CPI in the US rose 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year and rose only 0.1% month - on - month, for the fourth consecutive month lower than expected. After the data was released, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates before September jumped to 75%, and the annual interest - rate cut expectation remained at about 45 basis points. It is believed that the probability of a soft landing of the US economy in recent years is still large, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the fourth quarter [10]. - **US: Confidence Index Rebounded and Inflation Expectation Declined**: In June, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was 60.5, a month - on - month increase of 15.9%. The 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 5.1% from 6.6%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation slightly decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%. The suspension of tariffs and the decline of inflation expectations drove the confidence to rebound, but there are still concerns in the future [13]. - **Middle - East Situation Escalated**: On the early morning of June 13, Israel launched an attack on Iran. Iran launched a series of retaliatory actions. The global economy was shaken, with the Brent crude oil price soaring 8% to $94 per barrel, the global stock markets falling generally, and the gold price breaking through $3400 per ounce [16]. Domestic Situation Analysis - **Financial Data: Mixed Results**: In June, the new social financing was 228.94 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.1%. M2 increased 7.9% year - on - year, and M1 increased 2.3%. Overall, the government sector was still the main force of entity - sector financing. The central bank's actions to guide monetary easing and the expectation of restarting treasury bond trading may bring a favorable environment to the capital market [21]. - **Foreign Trade Data Interpretation: Exports Maintained Short - term Resilience**: In May, exports increased 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year. The decline in exports was affected by the weakening of "rush exports" and the high base, and the decline in imports was dragged down by the decline in commodity imports. In the short term, exports are expected to maintain a certain resilience, but there will be pressure in the second half of the year [24]. - **Policy Tracking**: The release of the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihood" may bring development opportunities to multiple fields such as consumption and elderly care. The acceleration of the "one - old - and - one - young" policy may bring development opportunities to multiple industries, including the maternal and infant consumption, elderly care service, and related equipment industries [25]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Production End: Industrial Production was Generally Stable**: In the chemical industry, the production load remained stable, and product prices declined. In the steel industry, production declined slightly, and demand slowed down [34]. - **Demand End: Real - Estate Sales Increased Week - on - Week and Passenger - Car Retail Sales Increased Year - on - Year**: As of June 12, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities increased 43.96% week - on - week. In the first week of June, the average daily retail sales of the national passenger - car market were 43,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 19% [41]. - **Price Trends**: As of June 13, most food prices fell this week. The average vegetable price decreased 0.05% month - on - month, the average pork price decreased 1.48% month - on - month, the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased 0.25% month - on - month, and the fruit price decreased 2.01% month - on - month [42].

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange options market indicates a potential slowdown in the recent aggressive selling of the US dollar, despite the dollar index trading at a three-year low [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The pessimism in the foreign exchange options market reached extreme levels in May, but signals of relative calm have emerged as the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision approaches [1][4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index's risk reversal indicators for one-week and one-month terms have hit their lowest bearish points in over two months [1]. - Despite the recent calm, the dollar's spot price fell to its lowest since April 2022 due to confirmed moderate producer price inflation and limited cooling in the US labor market [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI/PPI, suggest that the US economy is showing unexpected resilience, leading to increased expectations of a "soft landing" and minimal changes in Fed rate cut expectations [6]. - The market anticipates only two rate cuts this year, which explains the retreat from extreme bearish positions in the foreign exchange market over the past two months [6]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite a temporary slowdown in selling pressure, the consensus on Wall Street remains that the dollar will continue to weaken, with projections indicating further declines through 2025 [9]. - Investment confidence in the US is perceived to be declining, with macro traders reassessing the US as a high-risk market due to tariff threats, softening data, and fiscal deficit concerns [10]. - Major investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, warn of significant depreciation of the dollar in the coming year, with predictions of a potential 9% drop in the dollar index [10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **gold and silver markets**, focusing on price movements, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical influences. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Surge**: International gold prices have reached **$3,500** in the first half of the year, exceeding initial forecasts of **$3,000**. This has led to market disagreements regarding future trends [1][2][3] 2. **Historical Context**: Historical patterns indicate that technical analysis may not effectively predict turning points in gold prices. For instance, during previous bull markets, significant price increases were often unforeseen [2][3] 3. **Macroeconomic Factors**: Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, excessive money supply, and central bank gold purchases have contributed to the rising gold price. However, these factors do not explain short-term price volatility [2][3][6] 4. **Impact of US Economic Scenarios**: The potential outcomes of the US economy, including hard landing, soft landing, or inflation spikes, will significantly influence gold prices. Both hard and soft landings are generally favorable for gold [4][5][15] 5. **Central Bank Purchases**: Central bank gold purchases have been crucial in driving up gold prices, with major countries continuing to buy gold, particularly China and Russia [10][17] 6. **Silver Market Dynamics**: Recent silver price increases are attributed to both its industrial properties and its role as a precious metal. This mirrors past trends where silver prices surged alongside gold [8][19] 7. **Investment Trends**: Domestic investors have shown increased interest in gold futures and derivatives, with margin deposits in the gold futures market surpassing **927 billion RMB** [10] 8. **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the weakening of the dollar-centric international system have supported long-term gold price trends [11][12] 9. **Future Price Projections**: The potential for gold prices to reach **$3,500** is based on historical trends following significant economic events, such as the 2008 financial crisis [18] 10. **Market Risks**: Short-term risks to gold prices include liquidity issues and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, which could lead to price corrections [14][26] Additional Important Content - **Investor Behavior**: The behavior of investors in the gold market reflects a shift towards viewing gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation [9][12] - **Economic Outlook**: The overall economic outlook for the US suggests a potential softening, which historically benefits gold prices. The likelihood of recession or stagflation does not diminish the bullish trend for gold [15][16] - **Trade Negotiations**: The outcome of trade negotiations, particularly with major economies, will significantly impact US economic conditions and, consequently, gold prices [21][22] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the gold and silver markets.

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index is currently about 2% away from its all-time high, a surprising scenario given the market's turmoil earlier in April due to Trump's tariffs [1] - As of last week, all three major U.S. stock indices posted gains, with the Nasdaq Composite rising over 2.3% for the week, driven by strong performances from AI leaders like Nvidia [1] - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.2%, which alleviated concerns about a rapid economic downturn [9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May is expected to test market optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with economists predicting a rise in both overall and core CPI due to the impact of Trump's tariffs [4][14] - Economists expect the May CPI year-over-year to increase from 2.3% in April to 2.5%, while core CPI is anticipated to rise from 2.8% to 2.9% [14] Group 3: Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports from GameStop (GME), Oracle (ORCL), and Adobe (ADBE) are anticipated this week, with a focus on Oracle's cloud revenue and Adobe's AI-driven creative software revenue [5] - Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is set to take place, where updates on software products and potential new hardware may be revealed [17] Group 4: Trade Relations - The first meeting of the U.S.-China trade negotiation mechanism is scheduled, with expectations of significant discussions on tariff policies [3][6] - The U.S. Court of Appeals is expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which could influence market sentiment depending on the outcome [7] Group 5: Political Dynamics - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has led to significant market volatility, with Tesla's stock experiencing a sharp decline following public disputes [19] - Recent comments from hedge fund manager Bill Ackman suggest a potential easing of tensions between Trump and Musk, although uncertainties remain regarding their relationship [21]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slight cooling in May, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, the lowest since February, and previous months' figures revised down by 95,000 [1][2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while wage growth accelerated, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above economists' expectations [2][7] - The report alleviated concerns about a potential recession, as it indicated that employers are cautious but not drastically cutting jobs despite higher costs from tariffs and a slowing economy [1][3] Group 2 - The service sector, particularly healthcare and leisure industries, showed strong performance, while manufacturing jobs unexpectedly decreased by 8,000, marking the largest drop of the year [3][6] - Federal government job cuts totaled 22,000 in May, the largest since 2020, raising concerns about the impact of government spending cuts on the job market [6] - Despite large layoffs from major companies like Microsoft and Disney, job openings in April unexpectedly increased, indicating a mixed picture for the labor market [6] Group 3 - The non-farm payroll data was seen as favorable for the stock market, with predictions from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan indicating potential increases in the S&P 500 index following the report [8][9] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain intact, with traders betting on two rate cuts this year, the first likely in September [9][10] - Economists are closely monitoring labor supply and demand dynamics, especially in light of inflation risks associated with tariff policies [7][11]

Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a complex situation influenced by weak U.S. economic data, rising recession risks, and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - U.S. economic indicators for April showed a significant decline, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling by 0.5%, retail sales growth dropping from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4% [1] - The gold price has broken below the key support level of $3200 per ounce, with a potential downward target of around $2900 per ounce, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that the recent price movements are characterized as a technical correction rather than a trend reversal, with a significant resistance level at $3500 per ounce [2] - The current price rebound around $3160 is viewed as a short-term opportunity, with specific trading strategies recommended for both buying on dips and selling on rebounds [4] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the import price index, as well as geopolitical developments related to the Russia-Ukraine negotiations [1]

Group 1: US Dollar - 61% of fund managers believe the US economy will experience a soft landing, up from 37% in April, while 26% expect a hard landing, down from 49% in April [2] - The percentage of investors reducing their dollar exposure in May is the highest since 2006, with dollar exposure hitting a 19-year low [2] - Barclays predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December, previously expected in July, with further cuts of 25 basis points anticipated in March, June, and September 2026 [2] Group 2: Non-USD Major Currencies - ECB Governing Council member Mahrouf indicates that monetary policy adjustments will need to be cautious due to the impacts of fragmentation [3] - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Pill, suggests that monetary policy measures to ensure CPI returns to target may need to be more persistent [3] - A Bank of America survey shows more investors believe the euro is undervalued in May, while the British pound is considered overvalued [3] Group 3: Other Economic Indicators - India's Trade Minister is scheduled to visit the US for trade talks from May 17 to 20 [4] - Kazakhstan's central bank reports that gold and foreign exchange net reserves reached $50.567 billion in April, a month-on-month increase of 5.3% [4] - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts that US tourism revenue will decline by 7% in 2025, equating to a $12.5 billion reduction, making the US the only country expected to see a contraction in its tourism sector [4]