1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end, and the short - term market logic may shift to changes in the capital side and risk preference. With ample liquidity, low capital prices, relatively stable short - term interest rates, there are opportunities for phased repair of long - term interest rates. However, geopolitical uncertainties are high, oil price fluctuations are intensifying, and there may be continued adjustments. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume Changes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.08%, 0.07%, 0.02%, and 0.22% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 6510 and 6722 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 533 and 3353 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2606 - 2609, T06 - TL06, TF06 - T06, etc. showed different degrees of decline or increase [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T and TL main contract positions increased by 1106 and 1634 respectively, while TF and TS main contract positions decreased by 2552 and 1818 respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in each contract also changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD and Active Bond Yields**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased. The yields of active bonds with different maturities showed declines, with the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields decreasing by 0.5bp, 0.3bp, 0.3bp, and 0.4bp respectively [2]. - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight and 7 - day interest rates decreased by 2.28bp and 3.45bp respectively, while Shibor overnight and 7 - day interest rates increased by 0.1bp and 0.3bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Long - term Care Insurance Policy**: The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion to establish a long - term care insurance system with a target of about 3 years and a unified premium rate of about 0.3% [2]. - **Power Generation Installed Capacity**: As of the end of February, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.95 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, solar power and wind power installed capacities increased by 33.2% and 22.8% respectively [3]. - **US - Iran Negotiations**: The situation of US - Iran negotiations is complex. Iran rejected the US cease - fire proposal, while the White House said the negotiations were ongoing and productive. The US is trying to arrange a meeting to discuss the "exit plan" for the war against Iran [3]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - March 27, 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits from January to February [4]. - March 27, 22:00, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend. The main short - position holders of the May contract reduced their positions, providing short - term price support. Northeast corn prices are stable, North China prices are slightly weak with limited downward space, and sales area prices are rising. The 2605 contract of corn fluctuates after the wheat supply policy, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to be volatile. CBOT soybeans rose due to bargain - hunting, while domestic protein meal declined. Factors such as weak US soybeans, falling crude oil, and the China - Brazil agricultural meeting are negative for the market. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Fats and oils are expected to be volatile. BMD palm oil fell to a two - week low due to falling crude oil and other fats. The domestic fats and oils market is weak, following the decline in import costs. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Eggs are expected to be volatile. The 2605 contract of eggs rose slightly. Spot prices are mostly stable, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with the lower limit of the range rising due to cost support [1]. - For the pig market, the description is the same as that of corn, with short - term price support from the reduction of short - positions in the May contract, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Wednesday, corn reduced positions and adjusted. The main short - position holders of the May contract left the market, supporting short - term prices. Northeast corn prices are stable, North China prices are slightly weak, and sales area prices are rising. Technically, the 2605 contract fluctuates after the wheat supply policy, and short - term participation is recommended [1][2]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose due to bargain - hunting, while US soybean meal fell. The domestic protein meal continued to decline, affected by factors such as weak US soybeans, falling crude oil, and the China - Brazil agricultural meeting. Spot market prices continued to fall, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Fats and Oils**: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell to a two - week low. The domestic fats and oils market is weak, following the decline in import costs. Spot market is dull, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, egg futures fluctuated, and the 2605 contract rose 0.26%. Spot prices are mostly stable. After a continuous rise, the supply still pressures the egg price, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with the lower limit rising [1]. - **Pigs**: The description is the same as that of corn, with short - term price support from the reduction of short - positions in the May contract, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Military actions against Iran by the Israeli Defense Forces will continue for at least three more weeks, with thousands of targets remaining [2]. - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - At the end of February, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2]. - In 2026, China will strengthen the bottom - line thinking and monitor and regulate the linkage between domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China is 17187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons; the number of ships at ports is 110, a decrease of 2 [3]. - The rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February is mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking fundamental support [3]. - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license allowing countries to buy Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea [3]. - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve [3]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, energy and fertilizer prices soared, and the price of the urea futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by more than 20% compared with before the attack [3]. - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels, while the Kurdistan region refuses to resume exports [4]. - Bahrain Aluminium Company has started phased production cuts due to the near - stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 54.80 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons compared with March 5 [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [9][13][15][17][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is in the process of repair, with most Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The macro - policy in 2026 is to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, and a special ultra - long - term Treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [1]. - The financial data in February shows a pattern of "stable total volume and structural differentiation". The credit growth rate continues to decline, and the household credit demand is weak, which has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.90% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year is 9.00% with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decrease rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.62, with a month - on - month increase of 0.41 and a growth rate of 0.41%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9021, with a month - on - month increase of 0.007 and a growth rate of 0.10%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.27%; DR007 is 1.44, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.34%; R007 is 1.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decrease rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.47, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.97%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.97% [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on March 25, 2026, are 102.49 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.16 yuan, and 111.18 yuan respectively, with the corresponding price changes of 0.02%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.01% [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is 0.077 yuan, 0.097 yuan, 0.080 yuan, and 0.182 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to February, the fiscal operation started smoothly. The general public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.6% year - on - year. The government - funded revenue decreased by 16% year - on - year due to the drag of land sales, while the expenditure increased by 16% year - on - year due to the accelerated issuance of special bonds [2]. - On March 25, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 78.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.319%, 1.435%, 1.511%, and 1.505% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between spot bond maturity and futures cross - varieties [34][35][37]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [44][46]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [48][61]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][60]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and two - year net basis trends of the TL main contract [64][67]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: The repurchase rate has declined, and the Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end. In the short term, the market logic may shift to changes in the capital side and risk appetite. The current liquidity remains abundant, the capital price stays low, short - term interest rates are relatively stable, and long - term interest rates have opportunities for phased repair. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the high uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, the intensified intraday fluctuations of oil prices, and the possibility of continuous adjustment in the future, and pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TL had flat or slightly rising closing prices, with TS rising 0.02%. All futures contracts saw a decrease in trading volume. For example, T's trading volume decreased by 23,472 to 54,586, TF's by 11,464 to 55,274, TS's by 12,146 to 32,899, and TL's by 15,116 to 69,725 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads increased, such as TL2606 - 2609 (up 0.02 to 0.30), T06 - TL06 (up 0.05 to - 3.03), etc., while others decreased, like T2606 - 2609 (down 0.01 to 0.03), TF2606 - 2609 (down 0.02 to 0.20) [2] - **Futures Positions**: T's main contract position increased by 1,172 to 281,927, with long and short positions of the top 20 increasing. TF, TS, and TL's main contract positions decreased, with different changes in long and short positions of the top 20 [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: Some CTD bonds' net prices increased, such as 230004.IB (up 0.0207 to 108.2429), 250025.IB (up 0.0127 to 99.0955), etc., while others decreased, like 250014.IB (down 0.0001 to 100.1536), 240020.IB (down 0.0112 to 100.8844) [2] - **Active Bonds**: Yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active bonds increased by 0.5bp and 0.25bp respectively, while 7 - year and 10 - year yields decreased by 0.2bp and 0.45bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Some short - term interest rates increased, such as silver - pledged overnight (up 6.41bp to 1.3725), Shibor overnight (up 0.1bp to 1.3190), etc., while others decreased, like silver - pledged 14 - day (down 3.08bp to 1.4818), Shibor 14 - day (down 0.08bp to 1.5112) [2] - **LPR Rates**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Public Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 785 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 205 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank governor met with the CEO of DBS Group, and DBS will become the second RMB clearing bank in Singapore [2] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized promoting the relocation of central enterprises to Xiongan New Area and enhancing its industrial development [3] - The US proposed a 15 - condition peace plan to Iran and is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [4] 3.6 Market Situation - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bonds were mixed, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields changing by - 0.1bp and 0.3bp respectively. Treasury futures fluctuated narrowly, with TS and TL rising 0.02% and 0.01% respectively, and TF and T closing flat. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.44%, and the central bank increased the MLF renewal by 50 billion yuan this month [5] 3.7 Focus - On March 26 - 27, G7 finance ministers will hold a meeting. On March 26 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week of March 21 will be released [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating [1] - Soybean Meal: Rising [1] - Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillating [1] - Pigs: Oscillating Weakly [2] 2. Core Views - Corn: The futures price fluctuates with capital. Northeast corn prices are stable, while North China prices are slightly weak. The overall shipping enthusiasm of traders has increased, and the downstream inventory has been replenished. The futures market boosts the spot market, and the supply in the sales area is still tight. The futures price of the main 2605 contract first rises and then falls, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell due to technical selling. Brazilian soybean exports in March are expected to be 1587 million tons. The domestic spot price has slightly declined, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The market follows the change of import costs, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil fell due to the weak trend of competing oils. Crude oil prices limit the decline of palm oil. Indian refineries are reducing purchases. Domestic oils have collectively declined. The inventory of three major vegetable oils has slightly decreased, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation and commodity sentiment, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures have corrected. The spot price is stable with a few increases. The supply is sufficient, and the futures are expected to oscillate. The approaching Tomb - sweeping Festival and increased feed costs support the price, and the lower limit of the oscillation range has risen. Pay attention to supply data and the prices of surrounding commodities [1]. - Pigs: The near - term pig futures stopped falling, and the far - term rose more than the near - term. The spot price continued to decline. The supply is still abundant, and the demand has no obvious improvement. After the previous decline, it has stopped falling in the short term but is likely to remain weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed costs and surrounding commodity prices [2] 3. Market Information - Military actions against Iran will last at least three more weeks, and there are still thousands of targets to be attacked [2] - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers [2] - At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [2] - In 2026, China will strengthen the monitoring and supervision of the linkage between domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China increased by 69.66 million tons, the daily port clearance volume increased by 6.82 million tons, and the number of ships in port decreased by 2 [3] - The rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February was mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking fundamental support [3] - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license for countries to buy Russian oil and oil products [3] - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve [3] - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the prices of energy and fertilizers soared, and the urea futures price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by more than 20% [3] - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels, while the Kurdish region refuses to resume exports [4] - Bahrain Aluminium has started phased production cuts due to the stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [4] - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports decreased by 7.2 million tons compared with March 5 [4] 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The report provides contract spread charts for corn 5 - 9, corn starch 5 - 9, soybeans 5 - 9, soybean meal 5 - 9, soybean oil 5 - 9, palm oil 5 - 9, eggs 5 - 9, and pigs 5 - 9 [6][7][8][11] 4.2 Contract Basis - The report provides contract basis charts for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][15][17][23] 5. Research Team Members - Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [25] - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards [25] - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, has participated in many important projects and is often interviewed by the media [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - TACO expectations are rising, and most Treasury bond futures closed higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The economy still shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the foundation for the recovery of real estate and consumption is not yet solid. The financial data is neutral to positive for the bond market, but inflation expectations may disrupt short - term sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan (+0.51%); M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% (-0.61%) [10] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.21, with a day - on - day increase of 0.09 (+0.09%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8928, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 (-0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.42, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.35%); DR007 is 1.41, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-1.00%); R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.46, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.34%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.00 (-0.34%) [11] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), and long - short position ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][14][20] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - The report presents charts on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repo transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [27][28][26] 4. Spread Overview - The report shows charts on the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [41][34][36] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [43][44] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [46][60] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][59] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funds rate, and the three - year basis trend and two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][68] Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: Repo rates are falling, and Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr emphasized that any changes to monetary policy will heavily depend on the trajectory of inflation, particularly in goods and services [1][10] - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is raising additional risks to inflation, complicating the monetary policy outlook [3][10] Inflation Trends - Barr noted that goods inflation has increased over the past year, while non-housing services inflation remains elevated, with inflation slowing to 2.4% in January and February, down from approximately 2.7% in prior months, but still above the Fed's 2% target [3][10] - The Fed's benchmark rate has been held steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in the last two meetings as policymakers seek greater clarity on the economic outlook [4] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market appears to be stabilizing, with low levels of job creation and low levels of workforce entry, although a weakening labor market could shift the policy outlook [5][6] - Recent labor market data showed mixed results, with 130,000 jobs added in January and a loss of 92,000 jobs in February [6] Policy Outlook - Fed officials, including Barr and Chair Jerome Powell, indicated that the economic implications of Middle East tensions are unclear, with higher energy prices potentially pushing inflation higher in the short term [11] - Miran, another Fed official, stated that policy should not be dictated by short-term headlines and emphasized the need to look at longer-term trends [7][9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity situation remains stable, with interbank lending rates showing a downward trend, but the space for further declines in the one-year deposit rate is limited due to constrained policy rates and expectations of no significant interest rate cuts in the short term [8][5] - As of March 29, 2026, local government bonds issued reached a total of 30,804 billion yuan, with 16,143 billion yuan (52%) being long-term bonds and 11,308 billion yuan (37%) allocated for debt repayment [12][40] - The report highlights that the early repayment of non-privileged bonds has a minimal impact on valuations, typically within 2 basis points, as evidenced by recent events in Shaanxi province [13][41] Group 2 - The second quarter issuance plan for local government bonds is set to be concentrated, with a total of 15,827 billion yuan planned for issuance from April to June, including 6,786 billion yuan in April, 4,935 billion yuan in May, and 4,106 billion yuan in June [12][41] - The report notes that the net financing of local government bonds as of March 29, 2026, is slightly lower than the same period last year, with cumulative net financing of 24,294 billion yuan [12][40] - The report emphasizes the significant increase in net purchases of 15-year and 20-year local government bonds by small and medium banks and other institutions in Q1 2026, with total purchases of 1,148 billion yuan and 355 billion yuan, respectively [13][41]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a rebound after an initial decline, with significant support at 3807 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3881.28 points, up 1.78% [3][7]. - Key sectors showing strong performance include non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, electricity, and power grid equipment, while sectors like rare earths, insurance, oil and petrochemicals, and coal showed weaker performance [3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.79 times and 45.41 times, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][13]. - The total trading volume for both markets was 20,962 billion, above the median of the past three years, suggesting robust market activity [3][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On March 24, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining support around 3807 points and ultimately closing at 3881.28 points [7]. - The trading day saw over 90% of stocks rising, with notable gains in sectors such as ground equipment, electricity, trade, environmental protection, and medical services [7]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation phase, with a focus on macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments [3][13]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electricity, communication equipment, and power grid equipment [3][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end, and the market logic may shift to changes in the capital market and risk appetite in the short term [4]. - Current liquidity remains abundant, with capital prices at a low level. Short - term interest rates are relatively stable, and there are opportunities for phased repair of long - term interest rates [4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are high, oil price fluctuations have intensified, and there is still a possibility of continuous adjustment. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL are 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL closing prices are 108.165 (up 0.02%), 105.915 (unchanged), 102.478 (down 0.02%), and 111.240 (up 0.52%) respectively. Their trading volumes are 78058 (down 37006), 66738 (down 43384), 45045 (down 8661), and 84841 (down 13232) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: For example, the TL2606 - 2609 spread is 0.29 (up 0.02), and the T06 - TL06 spread is - 3.05 (down 0.48) [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions are 280755 (down 1725), 173725 (down 808), 74893 (up 657), and 130829 (down 1820) respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of some CTD bonds have changed, such as 230012.IB (6y) at 106.8007 (up 0.0067), and 250025.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (down 0.0122) [2]. - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds are 1.2400% (unchanged), 1.3425% (unchanged), 1.5600% (up 1.25bp), 1.6925% (up 1.25bp), and 1.8285% (down 0.80bp) respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate is 1.3224% (up 1.07bp), and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate is 1.4000% (down 2.71bp) [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates are 3.00% and 3.5% respectively, both unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase is 175 billion, the maturity scale is 510 billion, and the interest rate is 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The state has taken temporary regulatory measures on refined oil prices for the first time in 13 years. The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on March 23. After regulation, gasoline and diesel prices increased by 1160 yuan and 1115 yuan per ton respectively [2]. - The second meeting of the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism was held, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial chain and supply chain [3]. - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said that the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and would suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days, but Iran denied it [3].