市场普遍认为，这波贵金属市场的回调更多是技术层面而非底层逻辑生变。美国银行首席投资策略师 Michael Hartnett在最新研报中称，对投资者而言，尽管黄金的短期波动剧烈，但驱动黄金和实物资产上 涨的宏观逻辑依然牢固。除非发生比当前宏观叙事更具破坏力的"更大事件"，否则这场由货币贬值驱动 的强势行情难以轻易终结。 每日经济新闻 1月26日-1月30日，受美元贬值及地缘冲突升级影响，金价持续冲高，28日触及5626美元后小幅震荡回 落，1月30日，受特朗普提名"鹰派"凯文・沃什出任美联储主席消息影响，黄金市场现巨幅波动，期货 黄金单日最大跌幅超14%，盘中最低触及4700美元/盎司，收盘下跌8.35%，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期 货报4907.5美元/盎司周度跌2.12%报4983.1美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度涨 4.33%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨7.23%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）周度涨2.18%。 近期国内外贵金属价格波动剧烈，市场不确定性显著增强，工商银行发布贵金属市场风险提示，建议投 资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避 ...

【市场回顾】 【机构观点】 美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新研报中称，对投资者而言，尽管黄金的短期波动剧烈， 但驱动黄金和实物资产上涨的宏观逻辑依然牢固。除非发生比当前宏观叙事更具破坏力的"更大事件"， 否则这场由货币贬值驱动的强势行情难以轻易终结。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为15.3%，维持利率不变的概率为84.7%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为29.0%，维持利率不变的概率为68.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 3.0%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为49.5%。 【国际宏观】 CME交易所上调COMEX黄金、白银及其他贵金属期货合约保证金要求的相关规定将自2月2日（本周 一）收盘后生效。 北京时间2月2日早盘，现货金银上演"过山车"行情。伦敦金现从一度失守4700美元/盎司关口到翻红， 最高触及4880美元/盎司上方；伦敦银现从一度大跌超7%到涨逾3%，最高逼近88美元/盎司。 日韩股市上演"v型"走位。日经225指数小幅高开后快速回落，几乎回吐所有涨幅，随后又再度拉升。韩 国股市开盘跌近2%，随后一路下探，一度跌超2.5%，低 ...

Group 1: Market Movements - London gold prices fell below $4,700 per ounce before rebounding to over $4,880 per ounce, while silver prices dropped over 7% before rising by more than 3% to approach $88 per ounce [1][4][15] - The CME announced an increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures contracts, effective after the close on February 2 [1][6][18] Group 2: Economic Events - The global market is facing significant events this week, including the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data, interest rate decisions from the European and British central banks, and elections in Japan [3][20] - Major companies such as Google, Amazon, Novo Nordisk, Disney, and Toyota are set to release their latest earnings reports, which may lead to a reshuffling in the U.S. stock market [3][20] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that Iran is engaging with regional partners to communicate with the U.S. and believes a fair agreement is possible, emphasizing the desire to avoid war [9][21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility, including a sharp decline in stocks and a rebound in the dollar, has led to significant drops in gold and silver prices, indicating a turbulent economic environment driven by macroeconomic factors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The chief investment strategist at Bank of America, Michael Hartnett, emphasizes that currency devaluation remains the fundamental scenario, suggesting that despite short-term volatility, the macroeconomic logic supporting the rise of gold and physical assets is still intact [3]. - Investors should be cautious of potential liquidity deleveraging risks in the first half of the year, which could lead to a significant cleansing of "greed" sentiment in the market [4]. - Hartnett notes that since Trump's inauguration, the dollar has actually depreciated by 12%, a trend that is seen as a policy-driven outcome [5]. Group 2: Economic and Political Implications - The weak dollar is viewed as a crucial means to boost manufacturing in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, highlighting the intersection of economic and political survival [6][7]. - Historical data shows a strong correlation between presidential approval ratings and dollar performance, with an average decline of 30% in dollar bear markets since 1970, suggesting that gold and emerging market stocks typically perform well in such environments [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett advocates for a shift from the traditional 60/40 stock-bond strategy to a "permanent portfolio" consisting of equal parts stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, which has shown impressive returns of 8.7% over ten years, the best performance since 1992 [9][10]. - The "permanent portfolio" achieved a remarkable 23% return in 2025, marking the best year since 1979, underscoring the importance of including gold and cash in asset allocation during times of currency devaluation and inflation volatility [11][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Hartnett predicts that the investment trend of the 2020s will be dominated by war, inflation, protectionism, and wealth redistribution, with current gold price levels indicating negative real interest rates in the U.S. [16]. - He warns that a significant capital outflow could occur if non-U.S. investors reduce their holdings in U.S. equities and government bonds by just 5%, potentially impacting the U.S. economy given its current account and budget deficits [19]. - Looking ahead to 2026, Hartnett suggests a "BIG + MID" strategy, focusing on Bitcoin, international stocks, gold, and mid-cap stocks, aiming to capture asset classes that may outperform in the new macroeconomic paradigm [22].

这位专家强调，美元贬值并不新鲜，并且已经持续了"几十年"，并指出，自1971年以来，美元"已经失去了超过99%的购买力，而这一切都发生在它与货 币纪律和稳健货币的最后联系被切断之时"，美国退出了金本位制。 格拉斯称："这种长达数十年且持续的货币贬值破坏了价格信号，严厉惩罚了储户和长期负责任的投资者，同时也大规模重新分配财富，使穷人变得更 穷，富人变得更富。" 【货币历史学家克劳迪奥·格拉斯告诉俄罗斯卫星通讯社："我们现在实际上看到的是长期结构性趋势的累积后果，这些趋势现在正在趋同。"他对贵金属 价格飙升和美元兑其他货币的大幅下跌发表了评论。】 格拉斯解释称："强大美元下的货币统一时代……以及全球对美国金融领导地位的接受实际上已经结束，因为越来越多的国家正强烈质疑，将其储备、贸 易结算体系和金融主权锚定在美元和美国政治领导层上是否仍然符合他们的长期利益。" 观察家总结称，与此同时，黄金正在经历历史性的飙升，"因为整个体系正在同时破裂"，对主权债务的信任"以及央行继续使用同样的旧'疗法'来拯救经济 的能力"下降，以及"对所谓'基于规则的全球秩序'的信心"。 - 俄罗斯卫星通讯社小程序上线啦，欢迎使用！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market volatility, including a significant drop in stocks and a rebound in the dollar, has led to a record single-day plunge in silver prices, yet the macroeconomic logic driving the rise of gold and physical assets remains intact, according to Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America [1][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar has declined by 12% since Trump's inauguration, which is seen as a policy-driven move to boost manufacturing in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin [2][4]. - Historical data shows that since 1970, the average decline in a dollar bear market is 30%, indicating ongoing long-term downward pressure on the dollar, which supports physical assets [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The traditional 60/40 stock-bond strategy is no longer suitable; instead, a "permanent portfolio" consisting of 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% gold, and 25% cash is recommended, which has shown impressive performance [6][7]. - The "permanent portfolio" strategy recorded a remarkable 23% return in 2025, marking the best performance since 1979 [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Hartnett suggests that the investment trends of the 2020s will be dominated by factors such as war, inflation, protectionism, and wealth redistribution, with gold prices reflecting negative real interest rates in the U.S. [10]. - The potential for a significant capital outflow exists if non-U.S. investors reduce their holdings in U.S. equities and government bonds by just 5%, which could lead to a $1.5 trillion capital outflow [12]. - Hartnett emphasizes that the great bull market in gold can only be ended by "greater events," and the current bullish sentiment may trigger a deleveraging risk in the first half of the year [14]. Group 4: 2026 Trading Strategy - Looking ahead, Hartnett maintains a contrarian view, suggesting that the reverse trade in 2026 may be to go long on bonds, despite acknowledging the risks associated with high global debt levels [17]. - The recommended trading strategy for 2026 includes a "BIG + MID" combination, focusing on Bitcoin, international stocks, gold, and mid-cap stocks, aiming to capture outperforming asset classes under a new macro paradigm [17].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant decline, with Bitcoin dropping to its lowest level since April 2025, reflecting a broader trend of falling prices across various digital assets [1][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin fell to a low of $75,719 before recovering slightly to $79,000, marking a daily decline of 2.58% [1]. - Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies like SOL and Dogecoin saw declines exceeding 10%, with Ethereum down 9.24% and SOL down 9.95% [4]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by approximately $111 billion over the past 24 hours, with over 420,000 liquidations amounting to $2.566 billion [5]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable lack of sustained buying interest in Bitcoin, raising questions about its role in asset allocation as both a trend-following and inflation-hedging asset [7]. - Despite favorable market conditions for Bitcoin, such as a weakening dollar and rising gold prices, the cryptocurrency has not attracted significant investment [6][7]. Regulatory Environment - The delay in the implementation of new regulatory structures for the U.S. cryptocurrency market has further diminished investor interest in digital assets [6][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Tensions between Israel and Iran may also be influencing Bitcoin's price, with analysts noting extremely low retail interest in the asset [7]. - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding negotiations with Iran and military posturing in the region have added to the uncertainty in the market [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent decline in gold and silver prices, attributing it not solely to the new Federal Reserve chairman but to broader economic factors and the interests of various stakeholders [1] - The author mentions a reduction in positions in non-ferrous metals while maintaining holdings in copper and aluminum, indicating a cautious investment strategy in overheated markets [1] - The current environment of currency devaluation and unchanged supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals suggests a focus on fundamental analysis to identify structural opportunities [1] Group 2 - The potential for larger regional conflicts could lead to a reevaluation of all investment logic, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and market stability [2]

贵金属出现史诗级暴跌。 Wind数据显示，截至收盘，现货黄金下跌9.25%，报4880.034美元/盎司，盘中一度下跌12.92%，跌穿每盎司4700美元，最低触及4682美元/ 盎司。现货白银价格盘中更是一度暴跌35.89%，截至收盘跌26.42%，报85.259美元/盎司。 | 国际贡金属 | | | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4880.034 -497.11 -9.25% 13.01% | | 伦敦银现 | 85.259 -30.60 -26.42% 19.12% | | COMEX黄金 | 4907.5d -447.3 -8.35% 13.28% | | COMEX白银 | 85.250d -29.17! -25.50% 20.10% | 一路狂飙的黄金、白银价格为何急转直下？贵金属价格是牛市见顶，还是未完待续? 黄金、白银出现史诗级暴跌 自北京时间1月30日下午开始，黄金、白银价格便出现大幅波动，至北京时间1月31日凌晨抛售更为汹涌。 Wind数据显示，现货白银价格盘中一度暴跌35.89%，盘中低位触及每盎司74.28美元；现货黄金价格 ...

贵金属出现史诗级暴跌。 Wind数据显示，截至收盘，现货黄金下跌9.25%，报4880.034美元/盎司，盘中一度下跌12.92%，跌穿每盎司4700美元，最低触及4682美元/ 盎司。现货白银价格盘中更是一度暴跌35.89%，截至收盘跌26.42%，报85.259美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，沃什的提名之所以对黄金、白银"杀伤力"极强，并非因为市场突然相信美联储将转向激进加息，而是沃什被视为能"重新锚 定美联储公信力"的人选。 | 国际贵金属 | | | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4880.034 -497.11 -9.25% 13.01% | | 伦敦银现 | 85.259 -30.60 -26.42% 19.12% | | COMEX黄金 | 4907.5d -447.3 -8.35% 13.28% | | COMEX白银 | 85.250d -29.17! -25.50% 20.10% | 一路狂飙的黄金、白银价格为何急转直下？贵金属价格是牛市见顶，还是未完待续? 黄金、白银出现史诗级暴跌 自北京时间1月30日下午开始，黄金、白银价格便出现 ...