投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-10-13 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 关 税 风 波 再 起 ， 注 意 风 偏 受 拖 累 贸 易 纠 纷 再 起 ， 风 险 资 产 集 体 下 挫 03 铁矿石 贸 易 冲 突 再 次 加 剧 ， 风 险 资 产 受 挫 严 重 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 螺纹热卷产量及表需 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 08/28 10/27 12/26 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 6 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The price of spot gold has surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time on October 8, 2025, with an annual increase of over 52% [3] - The rise in gold prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [3] - Analysts at Bank of America have raised their long-term target price for gold to $2500, with a mid-term outlook of $4000 [3] - Shandong Gold reported a year-on-year net profit increase of 102.98% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from rising gold prices [3] - Central banks worldwide have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a growth of over 70% in the precious metals scale of listed banks in 2024, reaching the highest level since 2018 [3] Group 2: Rare Earth Market - China's export controls on seven types of medium and heavy rare earths, implemented in April 2025, have caused global dysprosium prices to surge from $850 to $1200 per kilogram [5] - The export restrictions directly impact the U.S. military industry, particularly affecting the production of F-35 fighter jets, which require 417 kilograms of rare earth materials per unit [5] - China holds a near-monopoly in the rare earth sector, controlling 70% of global mineral reserves and 90% of refining and separation capacity [5] - Companies like Northern Rare Earth and Jinkeli Permanent Magnet are positioned to benefit from the growing demand in electric vehicles and robotics [5] - The rare earth export control policy also applies to overseas products containing Chinese components, effectively giving China significant leverage over the global supply chain [5] Group 3: Semiconductor Market - Technological breakthroughs are driving the semiconductor sector, with Shanghai Microelectronics producing its first chips using a 28nm immersion lithography machine in July 2025 [7] - Harbin Institute of Technology has achieved a 99.8% stability in its 13.5nm extreme ultraviolet light source technology, reducing costs by 60% [7] - The domestic production rate of the lithography machine supply chain has significantly increased, with key components from companies like Maolai Optics and Blue Eagle Equipment [7] - Longchuang Technology expects a net profit increase of 131.39% to 145.38% in the third quarter, indicating rising industry prosperity [7] - Challenges remain, as the 28nm lithography machine still lags behind international standards in high-precision components, requiring time for process optimization [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of China's competition with the United States, positioning China as the third major competitor after the Soviet Union and Japan since World War II [1][4]. - It highlights that the competition with the Soviet Union was primarily military and ideological, while the competition with Japan was mainly economic [2][3]. - The article asserts that China represents a comprehensive competitor to the U.S., encompassing military, economic, and technological challenges, combining elements of both previous competitors [4][5]. Group 2 - The article notes that since 2014, the power dynamics between the U.S. and China have been shifting, with China's economy surpassing the U.S. in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms [6]. - It references former President Obama's approach to countering China's rise through initiatives like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), aimed at excluding China from shaping global economic rules [7][8]. - The article contrasts the differing approaches of Obama and Trump towards China, indicating a significant shift in U.S. strategy under Trump, who viewed China as a strategic competitor [9][16]. Group 3 - The article details the timeline of U.S.-China relations, noting Trump's state visit to China in 2017 and the subsequent shift in U.S. policy towards viewing China as a strategic competitor [10][14]. - It discusses the escalation of trade conflicts starting in 2018, with the U.S. invoking Section 301 of its Trade Act to investigate China, leading to a series of tariffs and negotiations [20][21]. - The article emphasizes that the context of U.S.-China relations has evolved, with increasing pessimism from China regarding future economic ties due to rising tensions and geopolitical competition [33][34]. Group 4 - The article argues that the fundamental issue in U.S.-China relations is not merely economic factors like tariffs or trade agreements, but rather the long-term perception of the relationship's trajectory [35][36]. - It suggests that any future agreements must address both economic and geopolitical issues simultaneously, as avoiding these discussions is no longer feasible [40].

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic research by Guosen Securities indicates that following the U.S. government's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," the U.S. dollar index has weakened significantly, while global risk aversion has increased, driving up gold prices. The uncertainty in trade has led to a bleak global growth outlook, with commodities generally declining, particularly global pricing varieties experiencing larger drops than domestic ones [1][3]. Trade Relations - As the fourth quarter approaches, China and the U.S. are set to enter a new round of intensive negotiations regarding trade issues. The medium to long-term uncertainty in trade relations between the two countries remains high. A review of the key events from the first round of trade confrontations in April-May this year can provide insights into potential market fluctuations in the next phase [2]. - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods. Following China's response, the U.S. increased tariffs to 125% within a few days. By May, under internal pressure, the U.S. softened its stance and expressed willingness to resolve trade disputes through diplomatic channels, leading to a temporary easing of tensions [2]. Dollar and Commodities - The announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a significant decline in the U.S. dollar index. Concurrently, global risk aversion has surged, further boosting gold prices. The uncertain trade environment has resulted in a pessimistic global growth outlook, with commodities generally weakening, especially global pricing varieties experiencing more significant declines than domestic ones [3]. - Looking ahead, under the trade conflict, gold prices are more likely to rise while other commodities remain weak. The impacts of trade policy conflicts tend to clear in the short term, potentially leading to overshooting opportunities. It is noteworthy that current trade negotiations are primarily focused on U.S.-China relations, differing from the broader global impact of the April tariff announcements [3]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to see a phase of rebound due to fundamental pressures. During the April trade tensions, bond yields fell by 18 basis points. Historical experiences suggest that sudden tariff and sanction events lead to rapid pricing in the bond market. Following the tariff policy announcement, the bond market experienced fluctuations exceeding 5 basis points within two trading days, but the impact diminished significantly as trade sanctions escalated [4][5]. - Looking forward, the probability of a bond market rebound in October appears higher. Economic pressures in July and August suggest that monetary policy may continue to ease. Additionally, the current 10-1 yield spread of 40 basis points is above the historical median, reflecting a relatively neutral economic outlook, with limited upward pressure on long-term yields under stable monetary policy conditions [5].

Trade Conflict Overview - In April, the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, which escalated to 125% shortly after[2] - By May 12, a temporary agreement was reached, resulting in the cancellation of 91% of the tariffs imposed by the U.S. and a 90-day suspension of 24% of the tariffs[2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of tariffs, the U.S. dollar index fell significantly, dropping over 2% within two trading days and reaching a three-year low of 97.92 by the end of April[18] - Gold prices surged during the same period, reflecting increased global risk aversion, while major commodities like copper saw significant declines, with a 6.26% drop shortly after the tariffs were announced[18][19] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced a downward trend, with yields falling by 18 basis points (BP) during the trade conflict in April[4] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.63% after the initial tariff announcements, indicating a strong market reaction to the trade tensions[27] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to rebound in October, driven by anticipated monetary policy easing due to economic pressures observed in July and August[4] - The current 10-1 year yield spread of 40 BP suggests a neutral economic outlook, indicating limited upward pressure on long-term yields[4] Risk Factors - Potential volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in international policies pose risks to the economic outlook[4][35]

Group 1 - The recent market turmoil resulted in over 152,000 liquidations amounting to $19 billion, with Bitcoin experiencing a 15% drop and U.S. stocks collectively declining [1] - Factors contributing to this "Black Friday" include a one-week U.S. government shutdown delaying multiple data releases, including CPI data, raising concerns about the potential impact on interest rate cuts in October [1] - Geopolitical risks have eased slightly with a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which has led to worries about reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Ongoing trade conflicts, particularly the recent announcement of a 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks, continue to affect investor sentiment [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is high at 92.4%, but concerns about inflation and the government shutdown may delay this decision [1] Group 2 - The gold market remains resilient despite recent sell-offs, with key support levels identified at $3965-$3960, and a critical defense level at $3940 [4] - The outlook for gold remains bullish as long as the price does not break below the $3940 level, with upward pressure expected towards $4025-$4035 [4] - Market participants are advised to adopt a "pricing" strategy for investments, suggesting to buy in increments as prices drop by $5-$8 rather than fixed intervals [4] Group 3 - The gold price is expected to surpass 1000 yuan, indicating that the bull market is not over, but adjustments are necessary during the upward trend [2] - Market sentiment is currently sensitive to any potential corrections in gold prices, which may indicate underlying risks [2]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's high tariffs on Brazil and China have inadvertently boosted Brazil's agricultural exports, particularly beef and soybeans, to new record levels [1][6][9] - Brazil's beef exports to China surged by 38.3% year-on-year in September, reaching a record monthly export volume of 187,340 tons [6][7] - Brazil's soybean exports are projected to reach a record 102.2 million tons by the end of October, driven by strong demand from China and a record harvest of over 170 million tons [2][4] Group 2 - In September, Brazil's total beef exports generated $1.92 billion, with a volume of 373,867 tons, reflecting a 49% increase in value and a 17% increase in volume year-on-year [6][7] - China accounted for 93% of Brazil's soybean exports last month, with 6.5 million tons imported, highlighting China's critical role in Brazil's agricultural export strategy [2][4] - Brazil is expected to export 11 million tons of soybeans in the November-December period, confirming the annual estimate of 110 million tons for 2025 [4] Group 3 - The U.S. has seen its soybean exports to China drop to zero, with the country facing significant competition from Brazil and Argentina, which have lower tariffs [9][10] - The U.S. beef exports to China have significantly declined, with a drop of 41% in September compared to the previous year, as Brazil capitalizes on the opportunity [7][10] - Brazil's beef industry is strengthening its position as a leading global supplier, with 130 countries increasing their purchases of Brazilian beef [6][7]

Core Insights - The cessation of U.S. soybean imports by China marks the first time in 27 years, driven by high tariffs imposed by both countries as part of a trade conflict [1][3] - The U.S. soybean market is facing significant challenges, with zero orders from China this year, which previously accounted for over 50% of U.S. soybean exports valued at $12 billion in 2024 [3][5] - South American countries like Argentina and Brazil are gaining a competitive edge in the Chinese market due to lower tariffs and favorable export policies, further complicating the U.S. position [5][8] Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has relied heavily on China as a primary buyer of soybeans, but the imposition of tariffs has led Chinese buyers to seek alternative suppliers [7] - Trump's strategy to use soybean purchases as leverage for tariff negotiations is proving ineffective, as market dynamics have shifted and new suppliers have emerged [7][9] - The ongoing trade tensions have resulted in a potential increase in tariffs to 145% from the U.S. side and 125% from China, which could lead to a complete trade paralysis [8][9] Market Reactions - The agricultural sector in the U.S. is increasingly vocal about the negative impacts of the trade conflict, with farmers struggling to find buyers for their products [3][5] - The perception of tariffs as a "good status quo" contradicts the need for cooperation and negotiation in trade, highlighting the complexities of the current situation [5][9] - The diversification of supply sources in China is enhancing its bargaining power and stability in the supply chain, which poses a long-term challenge for U.S. agricultural exports [8][9] Political Implications - The political narrative in the U.S. continues to frame the country as a victim of trade practices, which may not resonate with market realities and could hinder long-term support [8][10] - The effectiveness of Trump's approach to leverage tariffs for political gain raises questions about the sustainability of such a strategy, especially for those directly affected like farmers and consumers [10] - The need for actionable solutions rather than political rhetoric is emphasized, as the ongoing trade conflict has real implications for inflation and consumer costs in the U.S. [9][10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of U.S.-China agricultural trade, particularly focusing on the absence of U.S. soybean orders from China this season, which is attributed to the ongoing trade conflict initiated by former President Trump [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Agricultural Trade Situation - U.S. soybean orders from China are currently at zero, indicating a significant decline in trade relations [1][2]. - Republican Senator Mike Rounds expressed that China is intentionally not purchasing U.S. agricultural products, viewing this as a long-term issue [1][2]. - U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins acknowledged the poor state of the agricultural economy and indicated that a relief plan for farmers would be announced soon [1][6]. Group 2: Political Reactions and Implications - Republican senators are increasingly frustrated with Trump's trade policies, especially as farmers face economic hardships due to the trade conflict [2][3]. - Senator John Hoeven claimed that China is using U.S. farmers as bargaining chips in negotiations, emphasizing the need to protect farmers' interests [3]. - The situation has raised concerns among Republican lawmakers regarding the upcoming midterm elections, as farmers were a crucial support base for Trump [3][6]. Group 3: Competition from Argentina - Argentina has taken advantage of the situation by reducing export taxes, allowing it to increase soybean exports to China, further impacting U.S. market share [4][5]. - Senator Chuck Grassley criticized the U.S. government's support for Argentina while American farmers are losing their largest market [5][6]. - The U.S. government plans to use tariff revenues to provide financial assistance to struggling farmers, highlighting the ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector [6][7].

美农民破大防！ 据外媒消息，往年9月份，美农民都会喜气洋洋，到农田收割大豆。因为这是我国买家开始下单的时 间。但今年情况出现了变化：自5月以来，中方没有购买过美一粒大豆。 根据记录，这是1998年之后，第一次没有购买美大豆。更令人扎心的是，在将大豆关税提高23%之后， 川普原本对农民所承诺的补贴，至今一毛钱都没有兑现。 川普想要用关税大棒吓唬人，结果先倒霉的是自己人。 中美之间的大豆博弈由来已久。 2001年之前，我国多次申请WTO均被美拒绝，原因之一就是美方要求我们开放粮食市场，我们不同 意。经过多轮谈判后，双方各退一步，我国用"开放大豆市场"的代价，换得了进入WTO的机会。 这时候，美就开始玩起了骚操作。 2003年，美农业部宣布因为旱情，连续4个月调低大豆的预期库存，大豆价格应声暴涨。次年3月，他们 再次宣布不会进行增产，大豆价格继续上涨。 中企害怕价格还会攀升，纷纷和美企签署高价采购合同。然而，等合同到手后，美农业部却话风一转， 表示之前大豆库存统计数据有误，实际上并不缺大豆。消息一出，大豆价格开启暴跌。 而刚签完合同的中企直接傻眼，要是按合同约定的高价采购那会亏的一塌糊涂，只好被迫违约，支付天 价违 ...