Core Points - The U.S. government officially announced a shutdown on October 1 due to depleted funds, stemming from failed negotiations between Trump and Congress over budget disagreements [1] - The fundamental reason for the government shutdown is the lack of money, as the U.S. government has been running large deficits and once funds are exhausted, federal departments cannot continue operations [3] - The government typically addresses funding shortfalls by borrowing, but it has reached its statutory debt ceiling multiple times in recent years, requiring Congressional approval to raise the debt limit [3] Debt and Economic Implications - Borrowing does not equate to simply "printing money"; the government issues bonds and borrows from the public and financial institutions through auctions [5] - If bonds are not purchased, the Federal Reserve may absorb the remaining bonds, increasing the money supply and potentially leading to inflation [5] - The government prefers external markets to purchase its bonds to avoid excessive inflation risks and a potential financial crisis that could arise from the Fed becoming the largest bondholder [5] Current Financial Landscape - The current fiscal situation is dire, with many countries and financial institutions hesitant to purchase U.S. debt; for instance, China sold over $50 billion in U.S. bonds in the first seven months of the year [6] - The U.S. government is relying on allies like Japan and the UK to increase their holdings of U.S. debt while reluctantly accepting continued purchases by the Federal Reserve [6] - Trump's reluctance to pressure China into buying more U.S. debt is influenced by China's strong leverage in areas such as rare earths and soybeans, which could lead to severe repercussions if mishandled [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown is influencing mortgage rates, with a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield potentially leading to lower mortgage rates, despite various market factors at play [1][4]. Impact of Government Shutdown on Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in tandem with mortgage rates, has been declining, suggesting that mortgage rates may also decrease [1]. - Mortgage rates have been falling since July but have recently seen slight increases due to aggressive lender actions rather than market movements [2]. - A government shutdown can lead to a drop in mortgage rates by approximately 0.125 to 0.25 percentage points, depending on the situation [4]. Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The shutdown may limit access to key economic data, which could shape investor sentiment and further influence mortgage rates [3]. - The ADP report indicating 32,000 job losses in September raises concerns about a weakening job market, especially with the absence of BLS job market numbers due to the shutdown [6]. - The bond market is currently fluctuating between concerns over the job market and inflation, both of which impact mortgage rates in different directions [8]. Predictions and Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that mortgage rates may continue to drift downward after the government shutdown, although various factors could affect this trend [7]. - The housing market is already under pressure from high home prices and elevated mortgage rates, and the uncertainty introduced by the shutdown may further discourage prospective buyers [7][8].

Key Points The Federal Reserve just cut interest rates for the first time in 2025, as concerns mount over a sluggish jobs market. Policymakers and Wall Street analysts seem to agree that two more interest rate cuts would be appropriate this year. Falling interest rates are typically good for the stock market, but not if they are triggered by a sharp economic downturn. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › On Sept. 17, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate (overnight intere ...

Consumer prices were 0.2% higher in September than the same month of last year, matching the rate of inflation in August ...

你有没有发现，最近美国停摆了，但美联储一点不受影响，照常运作？这么一想，你难道不觉得有点奇怪吗？一个金融机构，能独立到出问题 了，它照样自己按部就班的走，不受任何影响。就像柯林斯，这个美联储高管最近说的那样，"美国部门停摆是政治问题，跟我们没关系"。这话 简直可以写进教科书了，太硬气了。 如果美联储做的每一个决定都能影响整个经济，那么它这么独立、没有人能管，究竟对不对呢？我并不是说美联储要听从政治，但它是不是也该 承担些责任呢？现在的美联储就像一头巨大的独立机器，做着决定，推着经济走，却不为任何人所控制，或者说，没有人敢控制它。美联储每次 调息，都是高风险的操作，连美元汇率都能因其微调而发生大波动，可偏偏它自己无动于衷。 美联储的独立性从来都不是新闻。2018年底，美国停摆了足足一个多月，结果呢？美联储照常开会、调利率，发布经济数据，完全不受影响，完 全没有停滞过。为什么？因为美联储根本不依赖拨款，它有自己的资金来源，可以照常运作。停摆时无法运转，国会不能立法，部分职能停摆， 甚至一些福利支付也停滞了，但金融体系、货币政策，这些事，美联储都能继续。 有些人会说，这才是美联储的独立性，关键时候没人能干扰它的决策 ...

美国硅谷银行破产的原因真的是美元加息吗？为什么美元加息能够影响全球财富？而为何中国能避免这种影响？ 举个例子，阿根廷就曾深受其害。阿根廷的货币比索与美元紧密相关，每次美联储加息，美元升值，比索贬值，阿根廷经济就受到重创。2018年，美国加 息导致阿根廷比索在短短十天内贬值了12%。比索贬值让美元在阿根廷的购买力提高，美国通过外资控制阿根廷的银行和市场，在低价时买入资产，待时 机成熟后大规模撤资，使阿根廷经济陷入困境。 除了阿根廷，其他小国如土耳其、波兰、印尼等，也在类似的情况下遭遇了美元加息带来的经济冲击，财富被美国收割。 那么，既然美国加息能如此轻松收割财富，为什么其他国家没有应对之策呢？实际上，这些国家之所以无法避免，就是因为它们过度依赖经济全球化，而 对美国的金融政策缺乏警觉。相反，中国自1980年代起，虽然加入了全球化，但一直保持着完整的产业链，控制了制造业的核心环节。 要理解这些问题，首先需要弄清楚什么是"美元加息"。"美元加息"其实就是美联储提高利率，类似于我们国家央行的加息。简单来说，就是让银行的借贷 成本变高。通过加息，美联储的主要目的是让美元升值，并把全球流通的美元资金吸引回美国，表面上是为 ...

RBI Monetary Policy October 1, 2025, RBI MPC Meeting Live news & Updates: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), chaired by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, began its three-day deliberation on September 29, 2025. The outcomes of this meeting are scheduled to be announced today, October 1, 2025, at 10:00 AM during the RBI Governor’s address, amid global geopolitical tensions and the impact of US Trump tariffs.ExpectationsThe MPC’s decision on benchmark interest rates is highly antic ...

美国政府关门倒计时仅剩不到两天之际，国会两党就拨款问题举行的关键谈判失败，这一政治僵局引发的市场焦虑情绪， 已将金价推升至每盎司3800美元上 方。 当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普与国会两党领袖在白宫的会谈未能打破僵局。 联邦政府的现有资金将于当地时间周三凌晨0点01分正式耗尽 （北京时间周三中午12时01分） ，若届时无法达成协议，一场将导致数十万联邦雇员被迫休 假、公共服务中断的政府关门将不可避免。 谈判结束后，双方立场依然强硬，并相互指责。副总统JD Vance警告称，美国正"走向一场停摆"，并指责民主党人将政府"当作人质"。而参议院少数党领袖 Chuck Schumer则反驳称，是否关门的决定权在共和党手中，民主党已向总统提出建议，但"最终的决策者是特朗普"。 对美国政治体系不确定性的担忧，叠加美元走弱，推动作为传统避险资产的黄金价格在周一上午强势突破3800美元/盎司的关口，今日一度涨到3871美元，目 前回落到3800美元附近。 高盛表示， 股市最担心的是美国政府停摆可能导致非农就业数据发布推迟。 如果政府停摆，9月非农就业报告很可能无法按计划于周五上午8:30发布，这可能 会导致美联储10月份降息 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞士央行进行了三年多来规模最大的瑞士法郎抛售操作，此举旨在遏制因特朗普推 行关税政策而导致的瑞士法郎汇率飙升。据周二公布的数据，瑞士央行在第二季度购入了价值 51 亿瑞 士法郎(约合 64 亿美元)的外汇，这一数字与瑞银在宣布前的预测相符。 这些干预措施标志着瑞士央行在市场干预方面长达 15 个月的停滞期宣告结束，这反映出自特朗普 4 月 2 日宣布"对等关税"以来市场形势变得动荡。在 4 月至 6 月期间，瑞士法郎兑美元汇率上涨了约 10%， 而兑欧元汇率则上涨了约 2%。 在最新数据公布的前夕，瑞士和美国发表了一份联合声明，誓言不会操纵货币，瑞士央行承诺将其货币 政策重点放在价格稳定上。在该文件中，双方都承诺不会影响瑞士法郎与美元的汇率，以获取经济优 势。 瑞士央行行长马丁·施莱格尔多次强调，该央行的干预措施仅仅是为了防止瑞士的通货膨胀出现过高或 过低的情况。尽管该机构在其政策声明中强调其完全愿意使用这一工具(无论是在何种方向上)但政策制 定者们似乎已确立了针对瑞士法郎的新的原则，即更谨慎地与交易商进行交涉。在过去几年里，他们曾 投入数十亿资金来控制瑞士法郎汇率，并坚称该货币被高估了。 ...

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