Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from rising tungsten prices and increased production capacity, leading to a potential increase in both volume and price [3][4]. - The injection of mining assets, particularly the acquisition of the Shizhu Garden tungsten mine, is crucial for stabilizing the company's performance amid fluctuating market conditions [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 14.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, with a net profit of 939.45 million yuan, reflecting a 17.47% increase [1][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a 3.52% increase year-on-year, but a 24.86% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. Production and Market Position - The company aims to produce over 14,000 tons of hard alloy in 2024, maintaining its position as the global leader in this sector [2]. - The Shizhu Garden tungsten mine is expected to contribute significantly to the company's profits, with a projected net profit of 705 million yuan in 2024, accounting for approximately 70% of the total net profit [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tightening supply of tungsten is anticipated to drive prices higher, supported by a reduction in mining quotas and increasing domestic and international demand [3]. - The company is investing 1.8 billion yuan in upgrading the Shizhu Garden mine, which is expected to increase production capacity by approximately 59% by 2030 [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 16.40 billion yuan, 17.98 billion yuan, and 19.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 994.73 million yuan, 1.23 billion yuan, and 1.31 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.88, 17.73, and 16.57 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 763 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 82 million yuan, up 61.78% [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 22.59%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 10.75%, up 2.03 percentage points, primarily driven by product price increases and reduced financial expenses due to exchange rate gains [2] - The company achieved a non-deductible net profit of 87 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 92.63% [1][2] Market Dynamics - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn in Q1 2025 was 4,373 yuan per ton, representing an 18.93% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand from the home appliance and wind power sectors [1] - The monthly average production in Q1 2025 was 638,900 tons, a 10.76% increase year-on-year, while inventory decreased by 4.77% to 803,200 tons [1] Industry Outlook - Glass fiber is a critical industrial material with limited overseas production capacity, making domestic supply essential. The global demand for glass fiber is approximately tens of millions of tons, with China's production reaching 7.38 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 70% of the total [2] - The industry is expected to be less affected by trade wars due to the high energy consumption, capital intensity, and technological requirements of glass fiber production, with limited capacity expansion outside of China [2] Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 408 million yuan, 506 million yuan, and 583 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 48.50%, 24.06%, and 15.12% respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 11x, 9x, and 8x [3]

2025年1-2月水电发电量同比提升4.5%，其中发电大省四川和云南分别同比提升3.7%和17.0%。根据四 川省水文水资源勘测中心与长江水利网统计，四川江河流域来水情况较好，且长江流域蓄水偏高。从发 电量上看，2025年Q1长江电力、华能水电、桂冠电力等多个水电企业发电量同比提升;从电价上看，尽 管2025年各地长协电价整体下行，但四川等水电大省的交易均价则略有提升，量价齐升或进一步提升相 关区域水电企业盈利。此外，水电盈利的稳健性较强且分红比例高，股息率较长期国债收益率仍有显著 优势。 火电：量价成本三重下滑，多空博弈激烈 电价端看，2024年底开始，各省陆续启动新一年长协电价的谈判与签约，截至目前多省长协签约结果已 经落地，其中广东、江苏、浙江等地的长协电价下跌明显，而安徽、上海、河北等缺电省份电价降幅较 小。电量端看，2025年1-2月全国发电量整体下滑，其中辽宁、黑龙江、浙江、重庆、四川等省份实现 了逆势增长。成本端看，2024年Q4以来煤炭价格快速下跌，2025年Q1跌势延续但3月底起跌速放缓，底 部或逐渐企稳。该行认为，火电企业机组地域分布上的差异将导致量价影响不同，其中机组多位于电价 跌幅小或 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12]. Core Views - The company's growth logic of increasing volume and price to gain market share is evident. It is leveraging e-commerce channels for greater brand exposure and restructuring its product offerings to focus on high-end products like the "7-Day Repair" series, which is expected to drive performance beyond expectations in the medium term [2][10][16]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Growth - The company is capitalizing on the e-commerce boom, particularly through platforms like Douyin and Tmall, which have shown significant growth. In March, Douyin ranked the company 4th in the toothpaste category with a GMV growth of over 200% year-on-year, while Tmall's oral care category saw a 43% increase [8][17]. Product Pricing and Structure - The introduction of high-end products has led to an improvement in product structure and average price. The "7-Day Repair" series accounted for 70%-80% of GMV on Douyin by the end of 2024, with an average price of 26.6 yuan per 100 grams, surpassing the mainstream price levels of 10-13 yuan [9][21]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of approximately 160 million yuan, 195 million yuan, and 243 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 46, 38, and 31 times [10][34].

Core Viewpoint - The electric two-wheeler industry is approaching a high prosperity turning point due to policy support and market structure optimization, with slight growth in revenue and profit expected in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and a net profit of 1.99 billion yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year [2][8] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.14 billion yuan, a 15.7% increase year-on-year but a 39.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 430 million yuan, up 34.2% year-on-year but down 28.0% quarter-on-quarter [2][8] - The company sold 7.536 million electric bicycles in 2024, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, while electric motorcycle sales fell by 11.8% to 2.369 million units; however, electric tricycle sales increased by 28.9% to 550,000 units [2][8] Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 17.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 9.3%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][14] - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 19.5%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; the net margin was 10.6%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][14] Product and Channel Development - The company is expanding its product lines, including women's products, technology products, commercial vehicles, and high-end tricycles, to meet diverse consumer needs [4][20][22] - The company plans to increase the number of its terminal stores from 30,000 in 2023, aiming to enhance sales efficiency and market reach [26][20] - The electric tricycle segment is expected to become a new growth point, with sales projected to grow significantly due to strong market demand [5][28] Market Outlook - The electric tricycle market in China has significant growth potential, with sales reaching 13.95 million units in 2022 and a compound annual growth rate of 6.25% from 2017 to 2022 [28] - The company aims to strengthen its position in the electric tricycle market by enhancing product offerings and leveraging its extensive distribution network [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from liquor products reached 170.612 billion yuan, with a volume and price increase of 13.73% and 1.90% respectively [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, ensuring stable pricing for its flagship products [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 51.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%, with a net profit of 25.401 billion yuan, up 16.21% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 91.93%, with a net profit margin of 52.27% [4] - The company distributed a total cash dividend of 64.7 billion yuan, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 75% [5] Product Performance - Revenue from Moutai liquor was 145.928 billion yuan, up 15.28% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 24.684 billion yuan, up 19.65% [2] - The proportion of series liquor revenue increased by 0.45 percentage points to 14.47% [2] Market Dynamics - Domestic and international market revenues were 165.423 billion yuan and 5.189 billion yuan respectively, with the international market revenue surpassing 5 billion yuan for the first time [3] - Direct sales and wholesale channel revenues were 74.843 billion yuan and 95.769 billion yuan, with direct sales accounting for 43.87% of total revenue [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a balanced growth in volume and price, with a projected revenue growth of 9.03%, 8.20%, and 8.16% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][14] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 74.85 yuan, 80.94 yuan, and 87.60 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [14]

高增长的逻辑：量价齐升。 （2024年业绩预告） 这个产量比2023年定下2024年的目标略低，当时预计矿产铜产量为111万吨，矿产金73.5吨，不过整 体上相差不大。 （资料来源：2023年年报） 从主要产品价格来看，黄金价格比铜价格涨幅更多： 作者 | 木盒 编辑 | 小白 1月22日，国内沪金再创历史新高，盘中一度最高触及648.86元/克，与此同时，紫金矿业公布了2024 年业绩预告：预计2024年归母净利润320亿，大增51.5%！ 核心原因是量价齐升，即主要的金属矿（金、铜等）价格在上涨，产量也在增加。比如2024年矿产铜 107万吨，比2023年101万吨增长6%；矿产金73吨，比2023年68万吨增长7.4%。 （1）伦敦黄金现货的价格大幅上涨，年度涨幅约28%，国内黄金现货价格也水涨船高，Au99.99全年 涨幅达30%左右，国内上期所黄金价格已经创新高； （伦铜期货价格，wind） （SHFE期货价格，wind） （2）2024年伦铜上涨2.6%，相对涨幅较小。 （LME铜价格，wind） 紫金矿业2025年计划的产量还继续增加：矿产铜115万吨，矿产金85吨，矿产锌（铅）44万吨，当量 ...