今年第四季度，贵金属板块再度走到市场聚光灯下，延续第三季度的稳步上行走势，并在Q4明显加速，并演变为"快速拉升—剧烈波动—高位回调"的典型 结构。VT Markets研究团队观察到，黄金在10月中旬一度冲上4380美元/盎司的历史高位，随后回调至3900美元附近，但在12月下旬再度突破4400美元，显 示市场对黄金的配置需求并未减弱。 更重要的是，这一轮上涨并非黄金"一枝独秀"。白银、铂金与钯金在第四季度集体发力，贵金属市场呈现久违的多点开花局面。相较黄金的稳健上行，铂金 和钯金在过去两年整体表现平淡，本季却因供应链中断担忧叠加长期低估值，引发明显补涨行情。白银则在 AI 新叙事推动下成为焦点，其在电子元件和电 力接触点中的不可替代性，使其被纳入AI基础设施原材料的讨论范围，四季度价格一度升至69美元/盎司，全年涨幅超过100%，被市场称为"加了杠杆的黄 金"。 黄金：核心支撑逻辑依然稳固 VT Markets分析认为，黄金走强并非短期情绪推动，而是建立在清晰的支撑逻辑之上。10月初，中国扩大对稀土与矿产的出口管制，引发市场对关键资源 被"工具化"的担忧；叠加美国政府停摆及信贷市场风险事件，避险情绪明显升温， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in precious metal prices, particularly silver, driven by both short-term trading dynamics and long-term fundamental factors [1][2] - International gold prices have increased by over 71% year-to-date, while silver prices have surged nearly 150% in the same period [1] - Domestic silver prices have also seen a substantial rise, with a reported increase of 8.12% on the day, leading to an annual increase of over 130% [1] Group 2 - The recent price increases in silver and gold are attributed to macroeconomic conditions and heightened risk aversion, with silver exhibiting stronger price elasticity compared to gold [2] - The gold-silver ratio has contracted to 62:1, indicating that silver is currently undervalued relative to gold, as historical data suggests a typical range of 40:1 to 60:1 [2] - A potential return of the gold-silver ratio to its historical mean of 50:1 could imply significant upside for silver prices, even if gold prices decline [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant price increases, particularly in silver, driven by supply constraints and strong demand from various industries, including solar energy and AI [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 24, COMEX gold reached $4,522 per ounce, and London gold was at $4,493 per ounce, with gold prices increasing over 71% year-to-date [1][5]. - COMEX and London silver prices both surpassed $72 per ounce, with silver prices up nearly 150% year-to-date [1][5]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai silver prices surged over 8% in a single day, closing at 17,609.00 yuan per kilogram, marking a year-to-date increase of over 130% [1][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of short-term trading dynamics and long-term fundamental factors, including tight physical supply and historically low inventory levels [1][5]. - The silver supply growth rate is only 2% to 3% annually, while demand from the photovoltaic industry accounts for 55% of industrial silver usage, alongside increasing demand from AI servers and electric vehicles [1][5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Indicators - The gold-silver ratio has contracted to 62:1, indicating that silver has been undervalued compared to gold, with historical ratios typically ranging from 40:1 to 60:1 [6][7]. - If the gold-silver ratio returns to 50:1, silver could rise to $77 per ounce, representing an 11% increase from current levels, or to $86 per ounce if gold prices remain stable, indicating a potential 25% upside [7].

欧洲天然资源基金特约分析师李冈峰表示，至12月初为止，各金属的基金多头上涨，当中钯金合约经历了164周(自2022年10月23日起)基金净空后，终于 恢复净多头。银价急起直追，至上周五为止今年已经升达132%，金银比更从90.84跌至64.6。但基金于美国期货白银净多年初至今仅升66%，说明实物需 求推高所致。某知名金属交易商调查结果显示，51%受访者认为白银会继续在2026年跑赢市场，29%认为黄金会再度领先，11%认为2026年最看好铜，剩 余10%看好铂金。铂金今年升幅亦达120%，但历史上，一安士铂金平均能换60多安士白银，而最近1安士铂金才能换29安士白银处于历史最低水平，反映 相对白银，铂金现在的估值是历史中最便宜的。 另外值得留意，市场已经有人开始赌2027年美联储会开始加息了(虽然现时几率还很少)。李冈峰之前指出，这次商品大牛市，可能会被美国的加息周期干 掉，所以非常重要。 | | | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | | Nymex铂金 | | Nymex把金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ( ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on the shifts in fund positions as reported by the CFTC, highlighting the recovery of net long positions in palladium and the significant rise in silver prices, while also addressing the implications of potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [2][27]. Group 1: Fund Positions and Market Trends - As of December 9, 2023, funds have increased their net long positions in various metals, with palladium finally recovering to a net long position after 164 weeks of being net short [2][7]. - Silver prices have surged by 132% this year, while the gold-silver ratio has dropped from 90.84 to 64.6, indicating a strong demand for physical silver [2][27]. - The net long position in silver has only increased by 66% year-to-date, suggesting that the rise in price is primarily driven by physical demand rather than speculative trading [2][27]. Group 2: Price Comparisons and Historical Context - Platinum has also seen a significant increase of 120% this year, but its valuation relative to silver is at a historical low, with one ounce of platinum currently able to exchange for only 29 ounces of silver [2][27]. - The article notes that historically, one ounce of platinum could be exchanged for over 60 ounces of silver, indicating that platinum is currently undervalued compared to silver [2][27]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Implications - The market is beginning to speculate on the possibility of the Federal Reserve starting to raise interest rates in 2027, despite current low probabilities [2][27]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding interest rate changes, as they could significantly impact the ongoing commodity bull market [2][27]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2024 has increased to 47%, and the probability for April has risen to 64.6%, indicating a shift in market expectations [26][27].

展望后市，东海期货认为，短期贵金属震荡偏强，中长期向上格局未改；安粮期货警告，白银近期的脉冲式上涨加剧了短线回 调的风险。反映市场情绪的"金银比"已快速回落至历史均值附近，存在技术性修复的可能，此外白银ETF持仓在激增后出现波 动，需警惕投机资金流向变化。 白银的飙涨行情带动了多只概念股上涨。Wind产业链数据显示，A股中白银概念股有11股年内股价翻倍。其中，兴业银锡 （000426.SZ）年内涨幅超218%，紫金矿业（601899.SH）、赤峰黄金（600988.SH）、江西铜业（600362.SH）、白银有色 （601212.SH）等多只概念股年内涨超100%，湖南白银（002716.SZ）年内涨超90%。 | | | 白银概念股年内表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 年内涨跌幅 | 市图率 | 总市值 | | | | (%) | (倍) | (亿元) | | 000426.SZ | 兴业银锡 | 218.30 | 39.29 | 626.27 | | 000603.SZ | 盛达资源 | 155.61 | 40.92 | 21 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by a combination of factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of December 23, international gold prices surpassed $4500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [1]. - The COMEX gold price had been fluctuating between $4000 and $3938 per ounce for two months before breaking through historical highs on December 22 [1]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a threefold resonance of declining inflation, geopolitical tensions, and sustained central bank gold purchases, which have provided a solid support base for prices [2]. Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have seen a remarkable increase, with a year-to-date rise nearing 140%, and a 36.59% increase over 23 trading days since November 21 [1][3]. - The surge in silver is driven by its dual role as both a financial and industrial metal, with increasing demand from sectors like photovoltaics and low inventory levels contributing to its price rise [3]. - The London Bullion Market Association's deliverable inventory has reached a ten-year low, leading to a structural crisis in supply that has further fueled price increases [3]. Group 3: Gold-Silver Ratio and Investment Opportunities - The gold-silver ratio, which historically ranges between 40:1 and 60:1, has recently surged to over 85:1 due to a significant influx of safe-haven funds into gold, resulting in silver being undervalued [3][4]. - If the gold-silver ratio returns to its historical mean of 50:1, silver could see substantial price increases, with potential gains of approximately 11% to 25% depending on gold price movements [4]. - The gold-silver ratio remains a useful tool for assessing relative valuations and investment strategies, although it should be used in conjunction with macroeconomic conditions and industry fundamentals [4].

研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 1014.240 | 13.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | | 16441 | +231.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 199,893.00 | | -2397.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 16,247.00 | -1180.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 276,418.00 | | -2375.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,230,157.00 | -474555.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 93711 | | 1995↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 899,663 | -1805↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 1006.87 | | 14 ...

白银的库存在消失。 我说的不是缓慢减少，而是"蒸发"。 就在前不久，华尔街传来一个惊人的消息：如果想在纽约金属交易所买断所有能被立即交割的现 货白银，可能只需要12亿美元。 这笔钱，在金融巨鳄眼里，或许只是一笔"小钱"。 正是这个看似不起眼的数字，成了点燃白银狂飙的导火索。 当一个市场 的库存薄得像一层纸，任何一点火星，都可能引发一场大火。 2025年12月22日，伦敦银价冲破了每盎司68美元。 这个数字，在几年前听起来像是天方夜谭，如今却成了现实。 仅仅这一年，白银的价格就从地平线起 飞，涨幅超过了130%，把黄金、石油等一众老牌资产远远甩在了身后。 人们开始重新打量这个常年被黄金光芒掩盖的"穷亲戚"。 为什么是白银？ 故事得从另一个比值说起，金银比。 简单说，就是用一盎司黄金的价格，能买多少盎司白银。 这个古老的比值，像钟摆一样，在历史长河 中来回摆动。 它的中轴线，通常在40到80之间。 当它高于100，往往是大动荡时期，黄金被疯抢，白银被冷落；当它低于30，则可能是白银过热的时候。 2025年4月，这个钟摆甩向了一个极端高位：104.87。 那时，一盎司黄金能换将近105盎司白银。 触发点是一场席卷全 ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资， 责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 21.0↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 1000.860 | | 16210 | +834.00↑ | | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) +12628.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 202,290.00 | | 17,327.00 | -335.00↓ | | | | ...