Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with an unclear trend [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★, with an unclear trend [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆, representing a clear short - term downward trend, and the market is evolving [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a short - term downward trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall metal market is in a complex situation with various influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and downstream industry conditions. Different metal products have different trends, and short - term price movements are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to factors like demand intensity in peak seasons, policy implementation, and iron - water production changes [1][2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is under pressure and has declined. Thread steel's apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, lacking sustained recovery. Its production is basically flat, and inventory continues to decline with a relatively low absolute value. Hot - rolled coil's supply - demand is stable, and inventory continues to decline. Iron - water production has reached a high level, but future production resumption will slow down due to falling steel - making profits. The downstream industries of steel, such as infrastructure and manufacturing, have improved, while the real - estate sector is still weak. The Sino - US tariff policy will continue to be debated, and the expectation of crude - steel reduction has cooled rapidly. The market will mainly show weak oscillations in the short term, and attention should be paid to position control before holidays [1] Iron Ore - The iron - ore market is oscillating. The global shipment volume has increased month - on - month and is stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded and is at a relatively strong level in the same period, and port inventory has started to accumulate. In terms of demand, last week's iron - water production increased significantly, and short - term steel - mill profitability is acceptable, so iron - water production is expected to remain high. There were no super - expected policies in important domestic meetings, and the impact of production - restriction news on the market has weakened. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate, with certain short - term support, but attention should be paid to the pressure of falling iron - water production in the future [2] Coke - The coke price is oscillating downward. The second round of price increases by coking enterprises has been rejected, and the bullish sentiment has declined. Daily production has continued to increase slightly. The overall coke inventory has not been effectively reduced and remains at a high level, and there is no purchasing enthusiasm in the trade market. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and downstream iron - water production has continued to increase significantly, with good steel - billet export orders. Attention should be paid to the evolution of steel exports [3] Coking Coal - The coking - coal price is oscillating downward. The production of coking - coal mines is gradually recovering, but this week's production has still slightly decreased due to some mines. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has loosened. Terminal inventory is still high, and there is no additional restocking demand during the May Day holiday. The total coking - coal inventory is basically flat, the production - end inventory pressure remains high, and downstream coking plants and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement. The market price is under pressure from inventory and tariff fluctuations, and it is expected to show a weak oscillation [4] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price has reached a new low this year due to the wavering tariff policy. The national manganese - ore port inventory has been continuously increasing. According to Steel Union data, the inventory at Tianjin Port increased by more than 300,000 tons last week. The spot and forward - looking prices of manganese ore have both declined. Although iron - water production has increased significantly, the supply of silicomanganese has continued to decline, and the overall inventory level has increased significantly, suppressing the price. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price is oscillating downward due to the wavering tariff policy. Iron - water production has increased significantly. Export demand is generally in a downward trend month - on - month, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased, and secondary demand is average, resulting in a marginal decline in overall demand. The supply of ferrosilicon has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has continued to increase. Its fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6]

Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore are reported as follows: PB powder at 764 CNY/ton (+3), and Brazilian mixed powder at 778 CNY/ton (+6) [1] - The main iron ore futures contract closed at 710.5 CNY/ton, up 0.21% (+1.5) [1] Basis and Costs - The optimal delivery product is Brazilian mixed powder. The warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder are 809 CNY and 797 CNY, respectively. The basis for the May contract for PB powder is approximately 46.6 CNY/ton [2] Demand Dynamics - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons month-on-month. The blast furnace operating rate is 84.33%, up 0.77% from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 91.60%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points. The profit margin for steel mills is 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points [3] Supply Situation - Global shipments have slightly increased this week, with a total of 31.882 million tons shipped, up 2.627 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.584 million tons, an increase of 3.206 million tons. Australia shipped 19.952 million tons, up 1.960 million tons, with 16.472 million tons going to China, an increase of 729,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 7.632 million tons, up 1.246 million tons. The total port arrivals were 25.128 million tons, an increase of 1.875 million tons [4] Inventory Levels - As of April 24, the inventory at 45 ports is 142.61 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons. The iron ore arrivals at ports have rebounded, and the unloading efficiency has improved, leading to an increase in port inventory. The number of ships waiting at ports remains high. The steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 20.11% to 90.7303 million tons, with daily consumption slightly rising as mills maintain a low inventory strategy [5] Market Outlook - The iron ore 09 contract experienced fluctuations, influenced by production restriction news, indicating that iron ore prices will remain under pressure in the near term. The specifics of the production restrictions are yet to be determined. The significant increase in daily pig iron production to 2.44 million tons is attributed to the recovery of steel mill profits and the resumption of high furnace operations. The sustainability of this high production level will depend on terminal demand. The market for finished steel continues to deplete inventory, with rebar and wire rod showing a pullback after a surge, while hot-rolled steel remains stable and cold-rolled steel shows slight recovery. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, while port arrivals have significantly decreased. The recovery in unloading efficiency has led to an increase in port inventory, with high levels of ships waiting. Looking ahead, the sustainability of high pig iron production will depend on terminal demand, with marginal changes expected in exports and infrastructure. A decline in exports is likely, and domestic demand will be crucial. The current high pig iron production coupled with inventory accumulation and increased overseas shipments expected in May and June suggests that supply and demand pressures will intensify, leading to continued downward pressure on iron ore prices [6]