1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), the market is expected to be weak and fluctuate at a low level. Although the high daily output of hot metal provides support for raw materials, the demand after the holiday is cautious, and the inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday and the pressure from mid - month delivery affect the market. The downward space for steel prices is relatively limited [3]. - For iron ore, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply has increased in stages, the daily output of hot metal remains high, and the inventory pressure is limited. The price is more easily affected by the macro and news [4]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to be weak and fluctuate. The high daily output of hot metal provides support, but short - term risks such as trade tariffs and terminal delivery inventory pressure need to be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - After the holiday, the demand was average, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level. During the holiday, the spot market had prices but no transactions, and the demand was weak. The five major steel products showed traditional inventory accumulation, with the social inventory of hot - rolled coil slightly exceeding the historical average. After the holiday, although prices were under pressure, the high hot - metal output supported raw materials [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar decreased to 203.4 tons (down 1.75% month - on - month and 13.91% year - on - year), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil slightly declined to 323.29 tons (down 0.43% month - on - month and up 4.90% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar decreased. The blast furnace operating rate remained stable, and the electric furnace operating rate slightly increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined [16][18][23]. - **Demand**: Affected by the holiday, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased significantly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 153.18 tons (down 36.46% month - on - month and 40.59% year - on - year), and that of hot - rolled coil was 295.01 tons (down 9.12% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory increased from a decreasing trend, with both factory and social inventories accumulating. The total rebar inventory was 659.64 tons (up 9.53% month - on - month and 49.63% year - on - year). The hot - rolled coil inventory increased significantly, mainly in social inventory, with a total inventory of 412.9 tons (up 8.49% month - on - month and 7.72% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land decreased month - on - month. In the automotive market, in August 2025, the production and sales of automobiles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly to 26.665 million tons (down 2.23% month - on - month and up 7.02% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased to 30.458 million tons (up 16.76% month - on - month and 3.29% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 2.4154 million tons (down 0.27 tons month - on - month and up 8.46 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased slightly to 3.27 million tons (down 2.79% month - on - month and up 0.61% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly to 140.245 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 8.32% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 90.4619 million tons (down 9.87% month - on - month and up 0.68% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines decreased to 81.89% (down 5.33% month - on - month and 6.11% year - on - year), and the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased to 177,300 tons (down 3.38% month - on - month and up 62.10% year - on - year). The independent coking plant's ton - coke profit increased to 9 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remained stable [77][85]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal remained at a high level, which provided support for coking coal and coke [5]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants decreased to 8.1913 million tons (down 7.80% month - on - month and up 11.80% year - on - year), and the port inventory remained unchanged. The coke inventory of independent coking plants increased to 425,400 tons (up 9.05% month - on - month and 13.56% year - on - year), and the port inventory increased slightly [91][97]. - **Spot Price**: The first - round price increase of coke was implemented during the holiday, and the game between steel and coke continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi decreased, while the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Handan increased [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated narrowly. The coil - to - rebar spread fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke slightly shrank [105][111].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Although the demand for iron ore is currently good and transportation costs have increased, supporting high - level prices, the supply is high and the demand resilience is weakening, so the upward driving force of high - valued iron ore prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand performs well and the ore price remains at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and the rigid demand for ore is good, which supports the ore price. However, contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effect will weaken. - Domestic port ore arrivals have reached a new high for the year, while miners' shipments have slightly declined from the high level. Overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply is also recovering after the holiday, increasing supply pressure. - Currently, the ore demand is good, and the increase in transportation costs has an impact. Positive factors support the high - level operation of ore prices. But the supply is high and the demand resilience is weakening, and the fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, limiting the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore remains high. This week, the daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills showed mixed changes, with overall changes being small. The demand for ore is performing well, but industrial contradictions in the steel market are continuously accumulating, and its resilience is expected to weaken, resulting in a limited positive effect. - Domestic port arrivals increased week - on - week, while overseas miners' shipments declined, but both are at annual highs. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high ore prices, and with the recovery of domestic ore supply after the holiday, the supply pressure of ore is increasing. - Overall, the demand for ore is good, and the positive sentiment in commodities after the holiday supports ore prices. However, supply remains high, and demand resilience is weakening. The fundamentals of the ore market are expected to deteriorate, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that ore prices will maintain a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 14,024.50, with a week - on - week increase of 46.71, a monthly increase of 46.71, and a year - on - year decrease of 1,081.43. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,046.19, with a week - on - week decrease of 990.60, a monthly decrease of 990.60, and a year - on - year increase of 60.89 [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,608.70, with a week - on - week increase of 248.20, a monthly increase of 248.20, and a year - on - year increase of 650.00. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,279.00, with a week - on - week decrease of 196.40, a monthly decrease of 196.40, and a year - on - year increase of 297.80 [1]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron output is 241.54, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27, a monthly decrease of 0.27, and a year - on - year increase of 8.46. - 45 - port daily average ore removal volume is 327.00, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.40, a monthly decrease of 9.40, and a year - on - year increase of 1.99. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 299.14, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34, a monthly increase of 0.34, and a year - on - year increase of 10.99. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 98.00, with a week - on - week increase of 58.63, a monthly increase of 58.63, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.24 [1].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract slightly up by 0.89% to 794.0 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 1: Project Developments - Macro Metals announced that its Extension iron ore project in Western Australia is actively progressing, aiming for "excavation readiness" by 2026. The project has indicated resources of 161 million tons with an average iron grade of approximately 54.2%, and an annual production capacity of 2-4 million tons [2] Group 2: Inventory and Consumption Statistics - The total imported iron ore inventory at 45 national ports is 140.245 million tons, an increase of 242,200 tons month-on-month. The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 146.411 million tons, up by 904,000 tons month-on-month [2] - The total imported iron ore inventory at steel mills is 90.462 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons month-on-month. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills is 2.9914 million tons, an increase of 34,000 tons month-on-month, with a stock-to-consumption ratio of 30.24 days, down by 3.35 days [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - According to Guoxin Futures, the supply and demand for iron ore are both strong. The demand side is supported by high steel production, maintaining robust iron ore demand. However, there is an expectation of reduced production from steel mills due to high inventory pressure, which may put some pressure on iron ore demand. Supply is expected to increase, leading to a relatively weak outlook for iron ore [3] - Zhongzhou Futures noted that the weekly production and consumption of the five major materials have decreased, leading to an accumulation of total inventory. Although pig iron production has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level, with port inventories accumulating. Real estate sales and construction data remain poor, while steel exports show resilience but face trade protection from some countries. From January to August, both imported and domestic iron ore have decreased year-on-year [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of iron ore is gradually increasing, with the global shipment rebounding, an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ore shipments, a slight decrease in Brazilian ore, and a slight decline in domestic ore production. On the demand side, the hot metal output continues to increase, but the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills is basically over, weakening the support for ore prices. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not significant. However, as the pre - holiday market sentiment cools, the futures price has declined. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the recovery range of steel demand in the peak season. The strategy is range - bound trading. [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content Price - Spot prices are oscillating downward [7] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder is oscillating at a low level [13] - The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder is oscillating at a low level [17] Futures Spread and Basis - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuates little, and the 01 basis oscillates at a low level [21] Relative Valuation - The steel - ore ratio oscillates at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio oscillates at a high level [28] Supply - Global shipments stop falling and rebound, and non - mainstream ore shipments stop falling and rebound. From September 22nd to 28th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.754 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.506 million tons [5][34] - Australian ore shipped to China stops falling and rebounds, while Brazilian ore shipments decline slightly. The Australian shipment volume was 20.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0928 million tons; the Brazilian shipment volume was 8.193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 million tons [5][38] - FMG and BHP shipments to China increase slightly [43] - RT shipments to China stop falling and rebound, while VALE shipments decline [47] - The freight rate index rebounds slightly [51] - The 45 - port arrival volume is 23.605 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.145 million tons [5] - The output of domestic iron concentrate decreases slightly. As of September 26th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 mines nationwide was 478,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% [5] Demand - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces oscillates at a low level [67] - The profitability of steel mills declines, but the hot metal output rebounds slightly. On September 26th, the daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons [5][73] Inventory - The port inventory rebounds slightly, and the port throughput is at a high level. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports increases slightly, and the number of ships at the port decreases by 3 to 99 [5][80] - The inventory of Australian ore stops falling and rebounds, and the inventory of Brazilian ore continues to rise [84] - The coarse powder inventory remains at a high level, and the lump ore inventory rebounds from a low level [91] - Steel mills' consumption is relatively high, and the inventory of imported ore rebounds significantly [98]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand have increased month - on - month, with the apparent demand of five major steel products rising to 8.74 million tons and inventory starting to decline. The supply - demand gap has narrowed. Considering high steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro - environment, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory range. The recommended operation is to try long positions with a light position and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a strong oscillatory trend. Supply - side global shipments decreased week - on - week while port arrivals increased. Demand - side, steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but daily hot - metal production increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient for the peak season. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory also rose. Iron ore is in a tight - balance situation, with a recommended trading range of 780 - 850. The strategy is to go long on iron ore 2601 on dips and recommend an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [4][6] Coke - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures rebounded. Spot prices are expected to gradually rise, with a possible 2 - 3 round increase. Supply - side, rising coking coal prices led to some losses for coke enterprises and a decline in production. Demand - side, steel mills continued to resume production, and hot - metal production increased. Inventory - side, coke plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The strategy is to go short on the coke 2601 contract at high levels in the range of 1650 - 1800 and recommend an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, with some contract prices fluctuating slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 3 yuan/ton to 3074 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remained stable, while the cost of some steel products changed slightly. Profits of different steel products in various regions also changed, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 1 yuan to 143 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 864 tons. The production of rebar remained unchanged, while the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.7% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6% to 15.106 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.1% to 6.363 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 3.805 million tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 12.9% to 104,000 tons. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 2.8% to 8.741 million tons, and the apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.0% to 2.204 million tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of different iron ore varieties increased slightly, with the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 2.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread increasing by 2.4% [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 13.2% to 26.75 million tons, while the global weekly shipments decreased by 6.9% to 33.248 million tons. The national monthly import volume increased by 0.6% to 105.225 million tons [4] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 242.4 tons, and the 45 - port daily average unloading volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 139.3097 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5% to 93.094 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% to 24 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices increased, with the coking profit decreasing by 11 yuan/ton and the sample coal - mine profit increasing by 4.2% [6] Supply - Coke production decreased by 0.6%, while coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 1.3% and clean coal production increasing by 1.8% [6] Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the demand for coke was supported [6] Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly, with coke plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased, with coal mines and ports reducing inventory and coke plants and steel mills increasing inventory [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the reports about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend considering high - level steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro environment. Suggest light - position long - entry attempts and holding short positions on the January spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Although the weak performance of finished steel drags down raw materials, it is still considered to oscillate upward. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [4]. Coke Industry - The spot price of coke is expected to gradually rebound. The market is trading the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions from September to October and the driving force of a bottom - building rebound. It is recommended to go long on the Coke 01 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market is expected to be in a balanced and slightly tight state. It is recommended to go long on the Coking Coal 01 contract at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar increased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed small fluctuations. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased significantly, for example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6, a 54.0% decrease [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease, while the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) increased by 11 to 1603, a 0.7% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - The weekly average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7. The weekly iron ore output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.4 to 66.4, a 2.1% decrease [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 5 to 1185, a 0.4% increase [6]. Supply and Demand - The output of sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 11.4 to 872.5, a 1.3% increase. The demand for coking coal increased as the iron ore output continued to rise and the coking plant operation remained stable [6]. Inventory - The inventory of coal mines, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal - washing plants, coking plants, and ports increased [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to experience high-level oscillations, supported by both macro and micro expectations [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and demand, similar to coking coal and coke, but there are disturbances on the supply side. The valuation of black commodities still has some support on the macro side, and the view that raw materials are stronger than finished products is maintained [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased week-on-week, and the global high-frequency floating supply rebounded in a V-shape. The impact of the news about BHP's partial variety ban needs further observation [5] - Vale's global shipments were 611.2 tons, a week-on-week increase of 259.1 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 50.8 tons. Its cumulative shipments from the beginning of the year to the 37th week of 2025 were 19,893 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3 tons, or -0.1% [4] - The supply of non-mainstream mines from Peru and Ukraine has not recovered, while the production capacity utilization rate of domestic mines has stabilized [20][28] Demand - Considering the pre-holiday production demand of intermediate products, blast furnace operations strengthened again, and pig iron production rose above 2.4 million tons. The immediate demand for raw material spot remains strong [5] - Pig iron production rose above 2.4 million tons again, and port ore handling volume increased due to high downstream operations and restocking demand before the holiday [30] Macro Level - Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, but the impact was limited after the decision was made. The domestic macro expectation strengthened after the China-US presidential call, providing some support for the valuation of black commodities [5] Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 800.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 575,000 lots, an increase of 31,300 lots. The average daily trading volume was 34,000 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 5,600 lots [7] Spot Price Performance - Last week, both the spot and futures markets showed high-level narrow-range oscillations. Among them, the price of BRBF increased by 5 yuan/ton, the price of PB powder decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the price of super special powder increased by 14 yuan/ton [11] Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory has not arrived yet, and the inventory of iron concentrate has decreased significantly recently [38][39] Downstream Profits - The spot and futures profits of downstream products have started to show a divergent trend [41] Spot Category Spreads - The price of super special powder has been relatively strong recently, and the spread between medium and low-grade (PB - super special) has continued to narrow significantly, reaching a recent low [44] Futures Monthly Spreads - Recently, both the fundamental reality and macro expectations have been relatively strong, and the 1 - 5 spread has been relatively stable [46][47] Basis Performance - The futures market has been slightly stronger, and the 05 basis has contracted month-on-month [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. With the increase in production of domestic and imported iron ore, the port inventory decreased while the steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high, and although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Trend Review - **1.1 Iron Ore Main Contract Trend**: Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week [7]. - **1.2 Iron Ore Spot Trend**: The prices of various iron ore powders such as PB powder, super special powder, etc. are presented, showing price changes [11]. 3.2 Part 2: Basis and Spread - **2.1 Iron Ore Futures - Spot Spread Trend**: The main basis is -8, 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, pb - super special spread is 77, and barite - pb spread is 9 [16]. - **2.2 Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The rebar - iron ore ratio continued to be weak [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Supply - Demand Analysis - **3.1 Iron Ore Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 2126.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.65%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased compared to the previous period [22]. - **3.2 International Shipping Freight**: The shipping price from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.86 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 24.45 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2205 [25]. - **3.3 Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory**: Port inventory is 13801.08 tons, Australian ore inventory is 5775.57 tons, Brazilian ore inventory is 5266.52 tons, iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and trade ore inventory is 8980.59 tons [28]. - **3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory was 1380.08 tons, a decrease of 48.39 tons compared to the previous period. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9309.43 tons, an increase of 316.38 tons compared to the previous period. The available days of imported iron ore for steel mills was 22 days, an increase of 2 days compared to the previous period, due to pre - holiday restocking [29]. - **3.5 Iron Ore Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 241.02 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average port clearance volume remained at a relatively high level, and the hot metal output maintained a high level with stronger resilience than expected [32]. 3.4 Part 4: Outlook - Affected by market sentiment, iron ore fluctuated at a high level this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore increased, port inventory decreased, and steel mill inventory increased due to pre - holiday restocking. The daily average hot metal output remained high. Although steel demand was weak, it had some resilience and was expected to maintain a certain profit under policy influence. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in the short - term long side [36].

Report Title - Black Metal Weekly Report - Iron Ore [1] Report Date - September 16, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of iron ore has recovered this period, with a significant rebound in shipments and a decline in arrivals compared to the previous period. On the demand side, after the parade, blast furnaces resumed production, and the molten iron output returned to the level before September 3. Overall, both supply and demand increased, with limited overall contradictions and intensified long - short game. In terms of valuation, the recent continuous contraction of spot and futures steel profits per ton has an impact on the raw material fluctuation rhythm. Unilateral attention should be paid to the fluctuation range of 95 (756) - 105 (836) US dollars [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental and Conclusion - **Price**: Last week, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with weekly increases ranging from 2 - 15 yuan. As of September 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $105.5, down $0.2 week - on - week, equivalent to about 874 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.12. The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 785 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,456.12 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,154 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,584 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may decrease in the next period [7]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3,573.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816.9 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,850.8 tons, an increase of 583.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,981.6 tons, an increase of 202.0 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1,736.7 tons, an increase of 244.5 tons. Brazilian shipments were 869.3 tons, an increase of 381.8 tons [8]. - **Arrivals**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,392.3 tons, a decrease of 180.6 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,245.0 tons, a decrease of 75.0 tons [8]. - **Demand** - **Molten iron output**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills increased this week, reaching 240.55 tons/day, an increase of 11.71 tons/day compared to last week, a decrease of 4.22 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 17.17 tons/day year - on - year. There were 25 new blast furnace复产 and 3 blast furnace overhauls this period [10]. - **Profit**: As of September 12, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,135 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 54.75 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 164.75 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao's data) was about 3,312 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,185 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 262 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 135 yuan [10]. 2. Data Combing - **Iron ore warehouse receipt price**: The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton. Other varieties also have corresponding chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, and converted warehouse receipt prices [16]. - **Iron ore inter - delivery spread**: As of September 15, the spread between iron ore 1 - 5 contracts closed at 21.5 (- 2.5) [19]. - **Iron ore import profit**: Not mentioned in the report - **High - low grade spread**: Not mentioned in the report - **Premium index**: As of September 11, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1825 (+ 0.0005), and the premium index for 65% pellets was 16.6 (-) [29]. - **Brand premium (discount) and inventory**: Various brands such as Mac powder, PB powder, and Jinbuba powder have corresponding inventory trends and premium (discount) data in 15 ports [31]. - **Steel mill sintered powder inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported sintered powder decreased by 70.7 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 5.75%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder decreased by 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.94%; and the average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 days, a decrease of 4.76% [34]. - **Imported ore inventory and daily consumption of 247 steel mills**: As of September 12, the imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 53.18 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 0.59%; the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 15.98 tons, an increase of 5.69%; and the inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore decreased by 1.53 days, a decrease of 4.80% [37]. - **Port inventory and berthing**: The total port inventory (45 ports), berthing ship numbers at 47 ports, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports all have corresponding data trends [40]. - **Port inventory by ore type**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported port lump ore increased by 42 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 2.68%; the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3 tons, an increase of 1.06%; the inventory of iron concentrate decreased by 30 tons, a decrease of 2.67%; and the inventory of coarse powder increased by 8 tons, an increase of 0.08% [43]. - **Surcharge**: The surcharge volume has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [46]. - **Iron ore in - transit volume**: The in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China has corresponding data trends [49]. - **Iron ore import quantity**: The import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries have corresponding data trends [52]. - **Australian iron ore shipments**: As of September 12, Australian shipments to China were 1,737 tons, an increase of 245 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 16.39%; the total Australian shipments were 1,982 tons, an increase of 202.1 tons, an increase of 11.36%; and the proportion of shipments to China increased from 83.86% to 87.64% [62]. - **Brazilian iron ore shipments**: As of September 12, Brazilian shipments to the world were 869 tons, an increase of 382 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 78.32% [67]. - **Shipments of the four major mines**: As of September 12, the shipments of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and FMG to China increased by 139 tons, 27 tons, 259 tons, and 72 tons respectively compared to September 5, with increases of 27.85%, 6.01%, 73.59%, and 21.89% respectively, and the total shipments increased by 497 tons, an increase of 30.47% [68]. - **Iron ore arrivals**: As of September 12, the arrivals at 45 ports were 0 tons, a decrease of 2,448 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 100.0%; the arrivals at northern ports were 1,245 tons, a decrease of 75 tons, a decrease of 5.7% [75]. - **Freight rates**: The freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao have corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [77]. - **Domestic ore production (estimated)**: As of September 12, the output of iron concentrate from mines was 77.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 5.42%; the inventory of iron concentrate from mines was 35 tons, an increase of 1 ton, an increase of 2.84% [79]. - **Steel mill powder daily consumption and steel mill capacity utilization**: As of September 12, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.2%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points compared to September 5, an increase of 5.12%; the daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 62.2 tons, an increase of 9.84 tons, an increase of 18.80%; the daily consumption of domestic ore sintered powder was 9.2 tons, an increase of 1.50 tons, an increase of 19.43%; and the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons, an increase of 5.12% [81]. - **Pig iron production**: The daily average pig iron production of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association has corresponding data trends from 2016 - 2025, and there are also year - on - year growth rates for 2024/2023 and 2025/2024 [87]. - **Global pig iron production**: The pig iron production of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [90]. - **Global (excluding China) pig iron production**: The pig iron production of regions outside China has corresponding data trends from 2017 - 2025, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [95].