不过，如果我们把时间拉长一点，就会发现上周五的数据显示出不错的积极变化：两者合计减空3258 手，操作完成后净空单创下本轮行情以来的新低，这是一个比较乐观的信号。因此，今天的大幅加空显 得有些突兀，也让不少投资者感到困惑。 尤其是在A股收盘后，传来了中美会谈的重大利好消息。按理说，这种级别的利好应该会引发市场的正 向反应，机构们不至于集体判断失误到如此地步。那他们到底在担心什么？是预期利好兑现即利空？还 是担心后续政策力度不及预期？ 周一的A股刚刚收盘，港股就上演了一出"利好狂飙"——恒生指数像被打了强心针一样直线拉升，最终 收盘大涨2.98%；而恒生科技指数更是气势如虹，一口气冲高5.16%，仿佛市场突然找到了春天的方 向。可惜的是，A股已经提前收市，错过了这波突如其来的利好刺激。 回看A股的表现，其实也不差。全A指数上涨了1.28%，超过七成个股飘红，成交量也放大了10%，整体 氛围回暖明显。从走势来看，似乎和此前的数据信号一致，呈现出一种"蓄势待发"的状态。但就在市场 情绪刚刚好转之际，盘后的复盘数据却让不少投资者心头一紧。 据数据显示，机构们在周一合计加空了12841手。其中，中信期货作为主力之一，加 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures opened higher, with all three major indices rising over 1%, and the Nasdaq futures increasing by more than 1.5%, driven by positive news [1] - A-shares are expected to open higher due to favorable external market conditions, with the market currently at a technical deadlock, approaching a triangle's peak, indicating a potential breakout direction [1] - If A-shares experience a slight upward movement today, the likelihood of continued bullish sentiment in the following trading day increases, with key resistance points identified at 3388 and 3439 [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is viewed as a crucial support for bullish sentiment in A-shares, showing a convergence of moving averages after several months of sideways movement, which often precedes a significant breakout [2] - Given the positive news and the favorable structure of the SSE 50 Index, the overall outlook for A-shares appears optimistic, with a high probability of an upward breakout [2]

隔夜美联储结束了为期两天的利率会议，如市场预期的按兵不动，联邦基金利率仍维持在4.25%-4.50% 区间。迄今为止，美联储已在连续三次会议上维持利率不变。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表态略偏鹰派，他表示，美联储不必急于调整利率，目前的政策是适 度限制的。值得一提的是，鲍威尔还表示，总统特朗普对降息的呼声"根本不会影响"美联储的工作，美 联储从未主动要求与任何总统会面，并且将来也不会。 受上述消息影响，市场对降息的预期微有弱化，目前市场的最新观点是，美联储最早将于今年7月才有 可能下调利率。 继周三冲高回落后，周四A股各大股指以涨为主。截至收盘，上证综指涨0.28%至3352.00点；深综指涨 1.03%，创业板综指涨1.48%，科创50指数跌0.36%，北证50指数涨0.98%。全A总成交额为13218亿元， 较周三的15051亿元明显萎缩。 由个股看，前一天表现强劲的航空航天等军工股继续领涨。军工类股票异常强劲应部分与近期地缘局势 趋向紧张相关，比如南亚局势，这使投资者对国防工业的重要性有了更新的认识。 除军工股涨势喜人外，通信设备、交运设备、通用设备、光伏设备、电机、橡胶制品板块涨幅也相对领 先。下 ...

Group 1 - The global market showed a positive trend during the holiday period, with multiple favorable factors emerging for the A-share market's reopening [1] - Key positive signals include stable overseas markets, high expectations for 3-4 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, and impressive consumption data during the May Day holiday [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate rebounded strongly, breaking through the important threshold of 7.2 [1] Group 2 - A-shares typically reflect overseas market trends post-holiday, but there is a significant divergence between index performance and individual stock movements [4] - Despite a general upward trend in individual stocks, the overall index showed weakness before the holiday, indicating a need for careful stock selection based on underlying driving factors [4] - The market is currently characterized by significant polarization, with institutional funds playing a crucial role in supporting long-term stock price increases [5] Group 3 - The analysis of two specific stocks reveals that understanding the underlying institutional trading dynamics is more important than merely observing price trends [7] - Data visualization indicates active participation from institutional funds, with signs of "institutional shakeout" occurring during price increases [9] - The presence of 223 stocks currently in the institutional shakeout phase suggests that daily price increases are common, but sustained upward movement depends on accurately capturing institutional fund movements [14]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a volatile consolidation pattern over three trading days, with an average daily turnover slightly exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while the Shanghai Composite Index faced a slight decline due to adjustments in bank stocks [1] - The market sentiment was dominated by uncertainties regarding tariffs, leading to a wait-and-see approach from both bulls and bears [1] - Positive signals regarding US-China tariff negotiations emerged, with the US indicating a willingness to negotiate, and China responding accordingly [1] Group 2 - The US announced a cancellation of tariff exemptions for small-value imports from China, which could have a negative impact on market sentiment [1] - The US GDP for the first quarter showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, which was worse than the expected decline of 0.1%, raising concerns about a potential recession [2] - Market expectations regarding the US economy's recession risk have increased, with a probability of approximately 57% for a recession by 2025, significantly higher than the 18% probability noted at the time of Trump's inauguration [2] Group 3 - Following the May Day holiday, A-shares are expected to continue fluctuating around tariff-related news, with uncertainty in finding a clear direction [3] - If tariff news improves, A-shares may gain some upward momentum, but the impact is likely to be limited due to the ongoing nature of tariff issues [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance and consider adjusting their portfolio structure, with a focus on export-related stocks if tariff issues significantly ease [3]

在当今这个扑朔迷离的时代，中美两国的贸易摩擦正如一场喧嚣的争斗，惊心动魄，令人亡魂俱冒。在这一场你来我往的棋局中，美国的决策者们似乎忽然 觉醒，意识到自己存在着重大的战略误判，今时今日，孤掌难鸣的局面，如同一个翻覆的桌面，令人猝不及防。如此一来，他们不得不急忙拼凑起应对小 组，试图解开供应链面临的难题。而此时的美国，虽然表面上依然强撑着，心中却难以安宁，似乎是要在硬汉气概中与中国一决高下。 不可否认，股市的道理就如同铁打的指数流水的股，指数虽在3040点后有所反弹，但个股的命运却并非如此整齐。尽管指数有可能上涨至3400乃至3500点， 然而个股的位置却已经大相径庭，市场必然会经历一场重新的排兵布阵与洗牌。不难看出，结构化与分化的过程始终在进行。对于九连阳的现象，许多人或 许迷茫不解，仍在各种窗口指导的讨论中徘徊。但从技术分析的层面来看，这无不合理。沪指之所以强劲，归根结底就是权重股的推动，银行股自应水到渠 成地涨。 而更为积极的信号已经浮现，3300点的稳固与冲击3400的欲望并非虚妄。近期的政策频频强调稳住股市与楼市，并提出积极的财政政策，种种迹象表明，官 方对市场呵护之心已显露无遗。展望下周，整体走势仍 ...

突破3400之后一直偏空，仓位只有30%，想等大跌再重新建仓，但贸易战后国家队介入超预 期，仅4月8号加了10%的仓位，之后一直没动。 站在现在的时点上，从国内政策端，个人一直认为没有有效手段应对通缩，货币政策也是跟 随或者等应对式的；从国际看美国衰退注定全球经济都好不了，东升西落的逻辑是行不通 的；不确定的是后面贸易战如果真的有缓和，以A股目前的位置有3%-5%的空间？好像也不 值得做一波？ 特请教下各位大神的意见。 资水 从博弈的角度谈一下个人观点。 lcqubeley 缓和了a股反而要跌，因为没有护盘预期了， 做a股要十分反人性。 Sorrentino 无论有没有缓和，都有很大的上行空间。 前期GJD托底，原因大概是贸易战不能示弱的统一部署。通常来讲，凡是有托底，必然涨不 高。加之经济预期下调，所以后市大盘应该是涨不上去的。 大盘短线企稳之下，游资必然活跃，所以ST股、微盘股最近抓住短暂的时间窗大涨。但退市 杀即将来临，风险也很大了。 还有一个机会点，主营是美国业务的股票，包括果链、英伟达链、特斯拉链、亚马逊链等， 受贸易战打击太狠，又没有被GJD资金照顾到，还处在深跌20%~30%的位置。如果贸易战缓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to face downward pressure due to various influencing factors, including the performance of overseas markets and geopolitical uncertainties [3][6]. Market Performance - The FTSE China A50 index futures closed lower, indicating a negative sentiment for the upcoming A-share market [3]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., fell by 3.11%, contributing to a pessimistic outlook for A-shares [3]. - U.S. stock markets also experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq dropping by 2.7%, which may trigger a global market reaction and increase risk aversion [3]. Influencing Factors - Trump's firm stance on tariffs, particularly regarding the automotive sector, introduces new uncertainties that could negatively impact the A-share market [6]. - A significant decrease in trading volume on the A-share market, which fell to 1.12 trillion yuan, suggests a lack of buying momentum that could hinder market performance [6]. Market Predictions - There are mixed opinions regarding the A-share market's performance, with some analysts predicting a potential decline while others foresee a rebound, possibly reaching a peak around the 8th of the month [6]. - Regardless of the predictions, it is emphasized that investors should remain calm and rational, developing strategies based on their risk tolerance and investment goals [6].

前几天夜报有个数据忘记说了，就是四季度的北向外资数据披露了，持仓2.1万亿，大概比三季度末减少了近2000亿市值。考虑到四季度a股整体小涨，所 以这2000亿算是外资主动抛售的，减仓比例大概在10%左右。 之前一直有人怀疑a股萎靡不振是外资砸盘所致，现在从披露的数据看外资确实在卖，一个季度2000亿也不是小数目。前些年外资每年会净买入3000-5000 亿，现在不买了，一个季度还要往外跑2000亿，这一进一出对a股的现金流是个严峻的考验。 之前有媒体说a股让外资高攀不起，短短几个字就说错了两件事，一个是a股高不起来，另一个是外资也没攀，它们持续从a股跳船已经一年多了，不要再 骗韭菜了。 …… 这一周关于畅销书作家"当年明月"的话题一直被网友热议，关于他的病情，以及各路八卦都难以满足大家的好奇心。我也是吃瓜群众的一员，我也很关心 一个早早就财富自由的内容作者在体制内的发展情况，因为这样的案例实在太少了。 绝大多数的内容达人要么是自己开企业的老板，要么是就是自由闲散人员，绝少听说还有在上班的。可能真的像他父亲说的那样，无论多有钱多有名，终 究还是有一份体制内上班的工作才像个正经人。 我看过的爆料里，听起来最靠谱的 ...