策 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 01 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 美国的战略收缩形态可能已经逐步形成——周观 点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 新美联储主席人选或进一步指向美国正在进行战略收缩并试 图内部改革。 2、 美国或正从世界秩序的管理者滑落为新秩序的参与者。 3、 美联储试图挽救美元信用并配合美国政府重建生产力，但是 变革最大阻力或依旧来自以美股为代表的金融资本。 4、 美国政府部门债务扩张的可能性不大，密切关注居民和企业 部门债务变化，以判断科技股和商品市场的变化。 9、 长期看好保险，央国企，反内卷，中概互联网。 华福证券 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、市场状态高频数据库——1 月第 3 周—— 2026.01.26 2、地缘扰动、"抛售美债"与金银——2026.01.26 3、海外科技和商品是对美元债务的避险，中国定 研 究 风险提示 告 5、 美元贬值趋势下，人民币信用或将在全球出现非线性加速扩 张，节奏关注美 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the Wind All A Index increased by 27.6% compared to the last trading day of 2024[3] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (94.7%), electronics (47.9%), and communications (84.8%)[3] - The profit growth rate for major industrial enterprises in 2025 was 0.1% year-on-year from January to November[4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The leading industries in profit growth from January to November 2025 were non-ferrous mining (32.3%) and transportation equipment (27.8%)[5] - Significant profit declines were observed in coal (-47.3%) and oil and gas extraction (-13.6%) sectors[5] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in 2025, with traditional raw material industries contributing 89% to this decline[8] Group 3: Demand and Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment fell by 3.8% year-on-year in 2025, while equipment investment rose by 11.8%[8] - The demand side was primarily driven by high-end product exports and domestic policy incentives[6] - The economic "supply-demand ratio" rose to 5.6 in 2025, indicating a supply surplus[14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The 2026 policy focus is on addressing demand shortfalls, with expectations for fixed asset investment recovery to around 3.8%[13] - The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, slightly lower than 2025's 3.2%[16] - The emphasis on enhancing service consumption and traditional industries is expected to drive economic recovery in 2026[20]

Group 1 - The report from CICC indicates that in the short term, the euro may be negatively impacted by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which could further weaken economic growth in Europe [1] - Conversely, rising uncertainty in U.S. policies may lead to questions about the reliability of the U.S. as an investment destination, which could negatively affect the dollar [1] - The report highlights that the market's trading contradictions during this trade friction may be more focused on the latter point regarding the dollar [1] Group 2 - From an equity market perspective, sectors such as biopharmaceuticals, media and entertainment, and food and beverages in Europe may face pressure due to their exposure to U.S. sales [1] - Absolute export values show that pharmaceuticals, transportation equipment, machinery, chemicals, and aircraft have high export values to the U.S. [1] - While companies may adjust supply chains and localize production to cope with these challenges, there remains uncertainty regarding the profitability recovery for "global Europe" [1] Group 3 - In this context, the report expresses a relatively positive outlook on "self-reliant" themes in domestic demand industries such as banking and utilities [1] - For sectors exposed to external demand, it is recommended to focus on those with reasonable valuations and profit expectations, where policy headwinds are relatively small [1]

Economic Overview - The national economy achieved a GDP growth of 5% for the year, successfully meeting the target [2][11] - Exports continued to support growth, benefiting from reduced trade disruptions post the China-US Kuala Lumpur Agreement, with strong growth in the electronic and high-tech product sectors [2] - Investment saw a further decline, with all three major investment categories experiencing downward trends, particularly in manufacturing and real estate [2][4] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed signs of recovery, with the industrial added value for December increasing by 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors reported growth rates of 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively [3] - Exports contributed positively to industrial production, with a year-on-year increase in export delivery value of 3.2% [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 15.1%, with private investment dropping by 17.2% [4] - Real estate investment experienced a significant decline of 35.8%, while manufacturing investment fell by 10.5% [4] - Infrastructure investment also faced challenges, with traditional and new standards showing declines of 15.9% and 12.2% respectively [4] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth slowed to 0.9% in December, marking a new low since 2023, influenced by the real estate cycle and consumer debt [7] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.5%, supported by policy initiatives [7] - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while discretionary goods showed a narrowing decline [7] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, although the rate of decline improved compared to November [8] - New construction area decreased by 19.4%, while the completion area also faced a decline [8] - Housing prices continued to drop across various city tiers, with both new and second-hand residential prices decreasing [8] Employment and Economic Stability - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, consistent with previous months [11] - Overall, the economy is facing challenges from external uncertainties and ongoing structural adjustments, with a focus on expanding consumption as a key growth strategy for 2026 [11]

Group 1: Tianpu Co., Ltd. (天普股份) - Tianpu Co., Ltd. stock price surged 16 times in 2025, closing at 218.02 yuan, with a total market capitalization nearing 30 billion yuan [3] - The company announced that its stock will resume trading on January 12 after completing a review of recent trading activities [3] Group 2: Guosheng Technology (国晟科技) - Guosheng Technology's stock experienced significant fluctuations, with a total increase of 370.20% from October 31, 2025, to January 6, 2026, reaching a historical high of 21.30 yuan per share [5] - The company will resume trading on January 12 after completing a review of abnormal trading activities [5] Group 3: Jiamei Packaging (嘉美包装) - Jiamei Packaging's stock price increased by 230.48% from December 17, 2025, to January 6, 2026, with the stock price at 15.07 yuan and a total market capitalization of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - The company announced that its stock will resume trading on January 12 after a review of trading fluctuations, which were primarily related to a change in control [7]

Group 1: Tianpu Co., Ltd. (天普股份) - Tianpu Co., Ltd. has been under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) due to abnormal stock price fluctuations and significant omissions in announcements [2][3] - The company's stock price surged 16 times last year, reaching a closing price of 218.02 yuan and a market capitalization of nearly 30 billion yuan [3][4] - Tianpu stated that its subsidiary does not engage in artificial intelligence and has no plans to develop related technologies or personnel [3] Group 2: Guosheng Technology (国晟科技) - Guosheng Technology announced that its stock will resume trading on January 12 after completing an investigation into abnormal trading fluctuations [5] - The company expects a net loss for the fiscal year 2025, with a reported loss of 151.05 million yuan in the first three quarters [5][6] - Guosheng is pursuing external investments, including a 230 million yuan capital increase for a solid-state battery project, but faces uncertainties regarding funding and project implementation [6][7] Group 3: Jiamei Packaging (嘉美包装) - Jiamei Packaging's stock will also resume trading on January 12 after an investigation into trading volatility [9] - The company has undergone a change in control, with a new major shareholder, Zhuyue Hongzhi Technology, acquiring control without plans to alter the main business or assets in the next 12 months [9] - The stock price increased by 230.48% from December 17, 2025, to January 6, 2026, significantly diverging from the company's fundamentals [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the abnormal stock price fluctuations of Ningbo Tianpu Rubber Technology Co., Ltd. (Tianpu Co.), which has attracted significant market attention and led to an investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for potential major omissions in the trading announcements [1] - Tianpu Co.'s stock price has shown unusual activity since the second half of 2025, with a remarkable increase of over 16 times last year, and the stock is currently suspended with the latest price reported at 218.02 yuan [2][3] - The total market capitalization of Tianpu Co. is approximately 29.2 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 1,228.19 million and a turnover rate of 0% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese emerging technology industry is in the early stage of its lifecycle, with high valuations and significant innovation advantages expected to drive market capitalization growth for leading companies; the manufacturing and consumption industries are more mature, with solid global competitiveness and potential for valuation increases [3][66]. Group 1: Technology Industry Comparison - The overall lifecycle of China's emerging technology industry is early, with optimistic growth expectations reflected in valuations for AI hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [72]. - The semiconductor, innovative pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment sectors show high valuations compared to international leaders, indicating market optimism for rapid profit growth and catching up [9][72]. - Internet companies exhibit weaker profitability and lower relative valuations compared to international counterparts, while consumer electronics have a notable overseas revenue share and moderate valuations [9][72]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing Comparison - The advanced manufacturing sector in China is relatively mature, with strong global competitiveness and significant valuation advantages compared to international leaders [68][98]. - The lithium battery sector leads in scale and profitability, with head companies generally having lower valuations than their international counterparts, indicating a strong cost-performance ratio [68][40]. - High-end equipment and new materials industries have profitability comparable to international leaders, but their global expansion potential remains significant [68][40]. Group 3: Consumer Industry Comparison - The product consumption sector in China shows strong profitability, but its growth is heavily reliant on domestic demand, leading to lower global competitiveness compared to international leaders [68][49]. - Service consumption is still in the early development stage, with lower scale and profitability compared to international leaders, but it has substantial growth potential as the economic structure transforms [68][49]. - Overall, the consumer sector has a relatively high cost-performance ratio, with opportunities arising from the transformation of consumption structure and the growth of service consumption leaders [68][49]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include leading companies in electric new energy, transportation equipment, communication devices, electronics, and service consumption sectors, which are expected to benefit from strong innovation advantages and global expansion potential [69][60].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that major funds experienced a net outflow from the electric new industry, with over 7.6 billion yuan exiting this sector [1] - In contrast, the cultural media, transportation equipment, and film industry sectors saw a net inflow of funds during the morning session [1] - Among individual stocks, Shanzi Gaoke reached the daily limit with a net inflow of over 1.357 billion yuan, leading the gains [1] Group 2 - Jin Feng Technology faced a significant net sell-off exceeding 1.6 billion yuan, indicating a potential concern for investors [1] - Other companies such as Aerospace Development, Tuo Wei Information, and China Satellite also experienced notable net outflows [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is on the significant net inflow of capital into the aerospace electronics sector, while other sectors such as electronics and non-ferrous metals experienced notable outflows [1] Group 1: Capital Flow Analysis - Major capital inflow was observed in the machinery, general equipment, and transportation equipment sectors [1] - Aerospace Electronics saw a net capital inflow of 1.428 billion yuan, leading the market [1] - Industrial Fulian, Goldwind Technology, and Sanhua Intelligent Control also experienced significant net inflows [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The electronics sector faced a net outflow exceeding 4.6 billion yuan [1] - Shenghong Technology was the most affected, with a net sell-off exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] - Hainan Development, Tianfu Communication, and Xinyismeng also recorded substantial net outflows [1]