2025 年 09 月 27 日 宏观研究团队 低基数与反内卷共振修复利润 ——兼评 8 月企业利润数据 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524020002 事件：2025 年 1-8 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 0.9%，前值-1.7%；营业收入累 计同比 2.3%，前值 2.3%。 低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，工业企业景气度边际回升 1、8 月工企营收小幅改善、利润增速显著转正。测算 8 月营收当月同比约 2.3%、 较前值改善了 1.2 个百分点；利润当月同比则明显回升了 21.9 个百分点至 20.4%， 连续 3 个月边际改善。拆分来看（利润增速=工业增加值*PPI*利润率同比），三 因子对 8 月利润增速的贡献分别为+5.6、-3.2、+17.7 个百分点。价（PPI）的负 贡献见底回升，利（利润率同比）由负贡献大幅转为正贡献。分类型来看，8 月 国企利润改善较快，明显好于私营和股份制工企。 2、低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，利润率同比回升。8 月工业企业每百元营 收构成中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises above designated size in August showed signs of recovery in revenue and profit, with revenue growth of 1.9% year-on-year and a significant profit increase of 20.4% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential stabilization in the industrial sector [1][7][8]. Revenue and Profit Trends - In August, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point acceleration from the previous month. Cumulatively, the revenue growth for the first eight months remained at 2.3%, consistent with prior values, ending a four-month slowdown [1][6][7]. - The profit total for August saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 20.4%, a recovery from a decline of 1.5% in the previous month. The cumulative profit growth for the first eight months turned positive at 0.9% [1][8][25]. Price and Volume Dynamics - The improvement in revenue in August was primarily driven by price increases, with a structure characterized by "volume contraction and price increase." The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved from -3.6% to -2.9% year-on-year, supporting profit margins [2][10][11]. - The revenue profit margin for January to August was 5.24%, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.06 percentage points, but significantly better than the declines observed in June and July [2][10][11]. Industry Performance Disparities - Profit growth varied significantly across industries, with notable increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, utilities, essential consumer goods, electrical machinery, and transportation equipment. Conversely, industries like coal, black metal mining, petrochemicals, and light manufacturing experienced the largest profit declines [3][15][16]. - In August, profit growth improvements were concentrated in upstream industries, with coal, steel, and non-metallic minerals showing low-level recoveries. The beverage and tea industry saw a significant rebound in profits due to seasonal demand [3][18]. Inventory and Debt Levels - As of the end of August, nominal inventory for industrial enterprises grew by 2.3% year-on-year, while actual inventory saw a decline of 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a continuous reduction trend [4][19][20]. - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. Capital expenditure showed a small rebound in August, indicating potential growth in investment despite low capacity utilization [4][22]. Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to remain supported in the coming months due to low profit bases from the previous year. If sustained, this could mark the first return to positive profit growth since 2022 [5][25]. - However, the current operational conditions of enterprises are not yet solid, with ongoing uncertainties in price trends and profit structures, necessitating continued policy support to enhance cash flow and profit recovery [5][26].

Core Viewpoint - Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255) has experienced significant stock price volatility, prompting multiple risk warning announcements and regulatory actions from the Shanghai Stock Exchange to ensure market order and protect investors [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Trading Activity - Tianpu's stock price has surged dramatically, with a 12-day cumulative increase of 213.8%, closing at 83.60 CNY per share on September 18, 2025 [3]. - The stock has been suspended twice for abnormal trading fluctuations within the month, indicating heightened scrutiny from regulatory bodies [3]. - The stock's price has deviated significantly from the company's fundamentals, raising concerns about potential rapid declines in the future [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions and Investor Behavior - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has identified abnormal trading behaviors among some investors, leading to self-regulatory measures such as account trading suspensions [1]. - Four insiders engaged in stock trading activities during a specified period, and they have since returned their profits to Tianpu [3]. - The company has issued warnings to investors to exercise caution and comply with trading regulations [1]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - As of September 18, 2025, Tianpu's stock had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 496.06 and a total market capitalization of 11.2 billion CNY [4]. - The stock opened at 83.60 CNY, with a trading volume of 6,170 shares and a total transaction value of 51.58 million CNY [4].

上交所发布关于天普股份相关情况的通报。 通报称 ，天普股份（605255）近期多次出现异常波动情形，公司已多次发布风险提示公告，提请 广大投资者审慎投资，注意投资风险。 部分投资者在交易该股过程中存在影响市场正常交易秩序、误导投资者交易决策的异常交易行为， 上交所依规对相关投资者采取了暂停账 户交易等自律监管措施。 上交所再次提醒投资者关注风险，审慎参与，合规交易。 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 此前天普股份因股票交易异常波动，本月内已被两次停牌核查。今日天普股份股票复牌后再度一字板涨停， 股价自8月22日以来录得12连板，截至今 日收盘，该股报收83.60元/股，近12个交易日累计涨幅已达213.8%。 09-18 20:27:56 P 83.60 所属行业：交运设备 -0.74% > 查看所属板块 > 算力芯片 新能源汽车 +7.60 +10.00% -0.96% +0.41% 最相关 《 开 83.60 最 高 83.60 6170手 成交量 76.00 最 低 成交额 昨 收 83.60 5158万 市盈 496.06 换手率 总市值 112亿 0.46% > 涨停分析 中昊芯英入股 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianpu Co., Ltd. announced that its stock trading suspension for verification has been completed, and trading will resume on September 18, 2025, after experiencing significant price fluctuations and multiple trading halts due to abnormal trading conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Trading and Market Activity - The company's stock price experienced a continuous rise, hitting the upper limit for 11 consecutive trading days from August 22 to September 10, 2025 [1]. - The stock was previously suspended for verification due to abnormal trading activities, with the first suspension occurring from September 3 to September 9, 2025, after a similar price surge [4][5]. - As of September 17, 2025, the company's total market capitalization is 10.2 billion [2]. Group 2: Control Change and Acquisition - The company is in the process of a control change, with the acquirer planning to obtain control through agreement transfer and capital increase, with Yang Gongyifan set to become the new actual controller [3]. - The acquirer, Zhonghao Xinying (Hangzhou) Technology Co., Ltd., has no plans for asset injection or significant business changes within the next 12 months [3]. - As of September 15, 2025, the acquisition funds from Zhonghao Xinying amount to 9.65 billion, while another party, Fang Donghui, has contributed 7.64 billion, with partial funds from Hainan Chip Fan expected to be completed by September 19, 2025 [5]. Group 3: Insider Trading Investigation - There were rumors of insider information leakage related to the trading activities, but the company conducted a self-examination and found no evidence of insider trading, as the transactions occurred before the insider information was formed or known [4]. - Four individuals, identified as insiders, have returned their trading profits to Tianpu Co., Ltd. as of September 17, 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is on the significant net outflow of funds from the electronic sector, with a notable net selling of over 1.8 billion in Northern Rare Earth stocks, while other sectors like transportation equipment and automotive saw net inflows [1] Group 1: Fund Flow Analysis - The transportation equipment, automotive, and agriculture sectors experienced net inflows of funds [1] - The electronic sector faced a substantial net outflow exceeding 7.2 billion [1] - Northern Rare Earth recorded the highest net selling, surpassing 1.8 billion [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - BYD saw a rise in stock price with a net buying of 0.895 billion, leading the inflow rankings [1] - Top companies with significant net inflows included Top Group, Shanghai Beiling, and Zhongke Shuguang [1] - Companies like Wolong Electric Drive, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Chip Origin faced notable net outflows [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows a declining risk appetite for growth stocks, with a structural market trend where more stocks are declining than rising, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other catalysts [4][5]. Market Performance - A total of 1,926 stocks rose, indicating a structured market where declines outnumbered gains [5]. - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.52 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.41% increase, with active trading sentiment among investors [6]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's trading volume growth outpaced that of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [6]. Fund Flows - There is a net outflow of institutional funds while retail investors are seeing net inflows [7]. - Institutions are taking profits and reallocating their portfolios, focusing on sectors like electric machinery, small metals, and non-ferrous metals, while selling off previously high-performing sectors such as communication equipment and consumer electronics [8]. Sector Performance - The market is experiencing a shift in focus towards technology growth sectors (semiconductors/storage chips), cyclical commodities (non-ferrous metals), and policy-driven sectors (real estate, film and television) [5]. - Adjustments are primarily affecting large financial sectors (banks, insurance, securities) and certain consumer sectors (liquor) [5]. Investor Sentiment - As of September 12, 29.39% of investors increased their positions, while 21.90% reduced their holdings, with 48.71% remaining neutral [13]. - The sentiment indicates a mixed outlook for the next trading day, with a significant portion of investors uncertain about market direction [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Tianpu Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with an 185.29% increase over a period of 19 days, leading to a second suspension for stock trading due to abnormal trading behavior [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianpu Co., Ltd. recorded an 11 consecutive trading days increase in stock price, leading to a suspension for review [1]. - The stock price surged from 69.09 to 76.00, marking a 10% increase on the last trading day before the suspension [2]. - The total market capitalization of Tianpu Co., Ltd. is approximately 10.2 billion [2]. Group 2: Corporate Actions - The recent stock price increase is linked to a change in control, with major shareholders planning to transfer a total of 18.75% of shares to new investors [4]. - The new controlling entity, led by Yang Gongyifan, is expected to hold 50.01% of Tianpu Co., Ltd. after the completion of the share transfer [4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Financial Concerns - The company has highlighted risks associated with the rapid stock price increase, including a significantly high price-to-earnings ratio compared to industry averages [4]. - There are uncertainties regarding the completion of the share transfer, as one of the buyers has not yet secured the necessary funds [5]. - The company has no immediate plans for business changes or asset restructuring in the next 12 months [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The company aims to achieve its annual business goals and enhance its performance continuously [23][26] - It will focus on both domestic and international markets, implement customer - centric and differentiated marketing strategies to maintain and increase market share [23] - The company plans to focus on its main business of rail transit equipment manufacturing while exploring related diversified businesses such as defense equipment, smart fire protection, and non - standard products [27] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Basic Information - Research object: Jinxi Axle [16] - Industry: Transportation Equipment [16] - Reception time: August 29, 2025 [16] - Company reception personnel: Chairman Wu Zhenguo, Director and General Manager Liu Tie, Independent Director Liu Wei, Deputy General Manager and Board Secretary Han Qiushi, Chief Accountant Hao Ying [16] 3.2. Detailed Research Institutions - The research institutions are investors who participated in the company's 2025 semi - annual performance briefing through the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center's online interactive platform [19] 3.3. Research Institution Proportion - No information provided in the given content 3.4. Main Content Data - Regarding the question of profit targets and how to ensure market share in the face of competition in the second half of 2025, the company will strive to achieve its annual business goals and enhance market share through domestic and international market expansion and different marketing strategies [23] - The company's 350 - km/h high - speed EMU axles are supplied to domestic high - speed train manufacturers as required [24] - The company is confident in achieving its annual business goals [26] - In terms of diversified operations, the company will focus on its main business and explore related diversified businesses [27]

Group 1 - The stock price of Yan'ao Co., Ltd. is reported at 26.02 yuan, down 4.09% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 28,455 hands and a transaction amount of 0.75 billion yuan [1] - Yan'ao Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, development, production, and sales of electrical equipment for rail transit vehicles, including electrical control systems and lighting systems [1] - The company has released its semi-annual report for 2025, showing an operating income of 246 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.4 million yuan, up 18.13% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - On the funding flow side, Yan'ao Co., Ltd. saw a net inflow of main funds amounting to 9.28 million yuan on the day, with a cumulative net inflow of 188.78 million yuan over the past five days [2]