Core Viewpoint - Japan's Rapidus plans to build a next-generation 1.4 nm wafer fab by FY2027, aiming for production in 2029, to compete with industry giants like TSMC and Intel [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Rapidus was established in 2022 and is supported by eight major Japanese corporations, including DENSO, Kioxia, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, NEC, NTT, SoftBank, Sony, and Toyota [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Rapidus aims to close the gap with TSMC, which announced its 1.4 nm technology earlier this year and will fully launch R&D next year [4]. - Intel has already begun production of its 18A node process (2 nm level), indicating a highly competitive environment for Rapidus [4]. - TSMC is experiencing a surge in orders due to the "AI boom," with its Arizona facility ramping up production of the latest process chips [4]. Group 3: Production Challenges - Rapidus is expected to start mass production of 2 nm process wafers in the second half of 2027, but faces potential yield issues common in mature foundries before mass production [4].

Core Viewpoint - Notable investor Michael Burry has criticized Nvidia regarding its stock incentives, investments, and accounting practices, to which Nvidia has responded directly [1]. Group 1: Stock Incentives - Nvidia addressed Burry's claim that its stock incentives have harmed shareholder value, stating that shareholder returns have not decreased by 50% as he suggested. The company clarified that it has repurchased $91 billion in stock since 2018, not $112.5 billion, and that Burry mistakenly included tax expenses related to restricted stock units in his calculations. Nvidia emphasized that its employee compensation aligns with industry standards and that the benefits employees receive from stock price increases do not imply that the initial stock incentives were excessive [2]. Group 2: Accounting Fraud Allegations - Nvidia refuted comparisons made between the company and historical accounting fraud cases such as Enron and WorldCom. The company asserted that it maintains a solid financial foundation, transparent financial reporting, and a strong commitment to corporate integrity [3]. Group 3: Circular Financing Concerns - In response to criticisms regarding "circular financing" among AI companies, Nvidia stated that its strategic investments represent a small portion of its revenue and constitute a negligible share of the approximately $1 trillion in annual financing in the global private capital market. The revenue of companies within Nvidia's strategic investment portfolio primarily comes from third-party clients rather than Nvidia itself [4].

Group 1 - S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that SanDisk Corp. will be added to the S&P 500 index on Friday, replacing Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. [1] - Following the announcement, SanDisk's stock (SNDK.US) rose over 10% in after-hours trading [1]. - SanDisk's market capitalization is approximately $34 billion, which is significantly higher than other constituents in the S&P SmallCap 600 index, making it an outlier [1]. Group 2 - SanDisk outperformed Strategy Inc., a major cryptocurrency holder, which recently qualified for inclusion in the S&P 500 index [1]. - The announcement regarding SanDisk's inclusion came earlier than some investors had anticipated, as the market expected adjustments to occur in early December [1]. - The index provider has discretion over the timing and method of adjustments, as evidenced by a similar situation in June [1]. - SanDisk's stock price has surged nearly 400% over the past three months, driven by the AI boom [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views Stock Index - A-share market oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points and the ChiNext Index dropping 4.02%. After the sharp decline in overseas markets, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased, leading to a market repair. The domestic market may follow suit. The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may rebound, and the outlook is for range-bound oscillations [10]. Treasury Bonds - After the previous stage of treasury bond trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has basically ended. The market has entered a pattern of calm observation and range-bound oscillations. The short - term trading logic will revolve around news disturbances, key economic data releases, and policy expectations such as fund redemption fee rate adjustments. The more certain medium - to long - term trading window awaits clear policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened, and treasury bonds may oscillate [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Review**: A - shares oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points and the ChiNext Index dropping 4.02% [10]. - **Core View**: Overseas market decline and increased interest - rate - cut expectations may lead to domestic market repair. - **Technical Analysis**: KDJ indicator shows potential market index rebound. - **Strategy Outlook**: Range - bound oscillations [10]. Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Review**: Most treasury bond futures closed lower. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.31% to 115.570 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.04% to 108.430 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06% to 105.855 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.460 yuan [11]. - **Core View**: The most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound oscillation pattern. The short - term trading logic focuses on news and policy expectations, while the medium - to long - term depends on the December Central Economic Work Conference. The stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate. - **Strategy Outlook**: Oscillatory operation [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In October, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, lower than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters (49.6%). Seasonally, it fell more significantly than usual. The absolute value of 49.0% is the lowest for the same period since 2013, and the PMI of large enterprises dropped to 49.9%, returning to the contraction range [18]. CPI - In October 2025, the year - on - year CPI was +0.2% and the month - on - month was +0.2%. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.1% and the month - on - month was +0.1%. The recovery of CPI and PPI was due to seasonal factors, low - base effects, and "anti - involution" [21]. Import and Export - In October 2025, China's exports were $305.35 billion, imports were $215.28 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.07 billion. The significant decline in export growth was due to the high - base effect of the previous year and being weaker than the seasonal level, with the overdraft effect of pre - export orders showing [23][24]. Industrial Added Value - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.9% and the service industry production index dropped to 4.6%. Both production data had year - on - year growth rates below 5% for the first time since September 2024. Production weakness was related to high bases and reduced export support, and the decline was consistent with PMI performance. Most product output growth rates declined, except for some like ethylene and integrated circuits [28]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased 1.7% year - on - year, and in October, it is estimated to have declined 11.2% year - on - year, the second - lowest growth rate since February 2020. The decline was mainly due to weakening internal impetus, with both private and public investment growth rates falling. In terms of expenditure directions and major categories, most investment growth rates declined, except for equipment purchases [31]. Social Retail - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods dropped to 2.9%, and that of retail sales above the designated size dropped to 1.6%. Consumption maintained positive growth under the high - base environment of the previous year, with a slight increase in the two - year compound growth rate compared to September. The growth rate of optional consumption declined further, and the contribution rate of categories related to the "trade - in" policy to retail sales growth turned negative for the first time since September last year. The early "Double 11" on some platforms boosted the growth rate of essential consumption [34]. Social Financing - In October, the new social financing was 0.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 trillion yuan. Government bonds and credit were the main drags. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.5%, and the credit growth rate in the social financing caliber dropped to 6.3%. The M1 growth rate declined as expected, but non - bank deposits turned positive year - on - year. Government bond net financing is expected to be 1.2 trillion yuan lower year - on - year from November to December. After considering the hedging of 500 billion yuan in government bond quotas, it is still expected to drag down social financing by 0.2 percentage points. The new policy - based financial instruments were fully disbursed in October, and subsequent supporting financing is expected to improve, offsetting the decline in social financing to some extent [37].

le 品研 2 2025 年 11 月 24 日 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 刘雨营 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 本面跟踪 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 932. 56 | -0. 47% | 933.90 | -0.66% | | | 黄金T+D | 930. 00 | -0. 46% | 928. 15 | -0. 46% | | | Comex黄金2512 | 4076. 70 | -0. 04% | - - 12 | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | 17-12 | l | | | 沪银2512 | 12046 | -0. 81% | 11967.00 | -1. 34% | | | 白银T+D | 12030 | -1.03% | 11964 | 0 -1. 11% | | 价格 | Comex白银2512 | 51. 005 | -0. 12% | l | al- | | | 伦 ...

Report Information - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [1][4][9][12][15][18][22][25] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan, Ji Xianfei, Wang Rong, Zhang Zaiyu - Contact: Wang Zongyuan Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Gold**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts has rebounded [2]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - **Copper**: The reduction in inventory supports the price [2]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory limits the price decline [2]. - **Tin**: The price has fallen from a high level [2]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2]. - **Alumina**: There is still fundamental pressure [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - **Nickel**: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from the macro - environment and news [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside potential is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 933.90, with a night - session decline of 0.66% [4]. - **Macro News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, saying there is still room for interest - rate cuts "in the near term", and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 12046, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the night - session closing price was 11967.00, with a night - session decline of 1.34% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silver is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 85,660, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the night - session closing price was 86180, with a night - session increase of 0.61% [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 5,193 tons to 49,790 tons, and the inventory of London Copper decreased by 2,900 tons to 155,025 tons [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value reached a four - month high [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22390, with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the closing price of the London Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2992, with a decline of 0.38% [12]. - **News**: Trump's "appointee" to the Fed, Stephen Miran, said the September non - farm payrolls report was "obviously dovish" [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17165, with a daily decline of 0.32%, and the closing price of the London Lead 3M electronic disk was 1989, with a decline of 0.80% [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 601 tons to 29955 tons, and the inventory of London Lead decreased by 1800 tons to 262850 tons [15]. - **Macro News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value reached a four - month high [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 292,030, with a daily decline of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 292,990, with a decline of 0.16% [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 31 tons to 5,991 tons, and the inventory of London Tin decreased by 50 tons to 3,065 tons [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21340, with a decline of 190; the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2713, with a decline of 19; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20595, with a decline of 185 [22]. - **News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 114,050, with a decline of 1,330; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, with an increase of 5 [25]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel - mining area, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both +1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [29].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.08% to 46,245.41 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.98% to 6,602.99 points, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.88% to 22,273.08 points [1] - For the week, the Dow fell by 1.91%, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.95%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 2.74% [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks mostly rose, with the U.S. Technology Seven Index increasing by 0.71%. Notable individual stock movements included Google up over 3%, Apple nearly 2%, and Amazon over 1%, while Tesla and Microsoft fell over 1% [1] - Airline stocks collectively rose, with American Airlines up over 5%, Delta Airlines over 4%, and Southwest Airlines over 5% [1] - Semiconductor stocks mostly increased, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 0.86%. Texas Instruments, NXP Semiconductors, and Microchip Technology all rose over 3% [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 1.23% and the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index up by 1.08%. Notable gainers included Tuya Smart up over 6% and Artis Solar up over 5% [1] - However, some individual stocks like iQIYI fell over 2%, and XPeng dropped over 1% [1] Commodity Market - International precious metals futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.07% to $4,062.8 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 1.27% to $49.66 per ounce [2] - For the week, gold futures accumulated a decline of 0.77%, and silver futures dropped by 2.02% [2] Federal Reserve Signals - Recent signals from Federal Reserve officials indicate a divergence in monetary policy views. Vice Chair Jefferson emphasized the resilience of the current financial system, contrasting the AI boom with the internet bubble, noting that companies have actual earnings and limited leverage [2] - Conversely, Fed Governor Milan indicated that data trends are "clearly dovish," suggesting potential support for interest rate cuts due to weaker-than-expected labor market data [2]

Wall Street watched its Thursday morning rally disappear by midday as investors grappled with conflicting signals about the health of the AI boom and the Federal Reserve's willingness to cut rates. Th... ...

Core Viewpoint - Janet Yellen warns that the U.S. democracy is in "deadly danger," likening its potential future to that of a "banana republic," a term typically used to describe politically unstable countries with economies controlled by external forces or internal oligarchs [1][4]. Group 1: Political and Economic Stability - Yellen emphasizes that the influx of global capital into the U.S. is driven by the certainty provided by a stable political system, which includes the rule of law, policy coherence, and equal treatment under the law [4]. - She observes that this foundational stability is being replaced by impulsive and discontent-driven personal will, particularly criticizing the actions of former President Trump [5]. Group 2: Fear in Business and Academia - Yellen notes that fear has silenced U.S. CEOs, who worry about being targeted if they cross invisible lines, leading to a chilling effect that extends to universities and research institutions [5][7]. - The White House's threats to cut federal funding for "politically incorrect" universities contribute to a hostile environment for foreign-born scientists and students, jeopardizing U.S. leadership in cutting-edge technology [7]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Yellen warns that the independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, as Trump has criticized the Fed and attempted to influence its decisions, which could lead to a collapse of the firewall between monetary and fiscal policy [8][12]. - She highlights that if the President demands the Fed to finance government deficits, it would mirror the situation in "banana republics," leading to currency collapse and hyperinflation [8][12]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Risks - Despite the current AI investment boom, Yellen believes it masks underlying economic risks that may not be immediately visible in consumer prices but will manifest in the value of the dollar [9][11]. - Since the announcement of new tariffs in April, the dollar has depreciated by 4% against a basket of major currencies, indicating a lack of confidence among global investors [11]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - Yellen's concerns reflect a broader issue of institutional decay that could take decades to unfold, potentially undermining the U.S.'s ability to attract global capital and talent [12][13]. - The erosion of institutional integrity could represent a strategic advantage for U.S. competitors, as the country risks dismantling its core assets that have historically supported its global dominance [12][13].

Core Insights - xAI is planning a new round of financing amounting to $15 billion, which would raise its valuation to $230 billion, significantly higher than the previously disclosed valuation of $113 billion earlier this year [1][2][25] - The rapid increase in xAI's valuation reflects a broader trend in the AI industry, where companies like OpenAI are also experiencing substantial valuation growth [28] Financing Situation - The details of the new financing round were revealed by Jared Birchall, Musk's wealth manager, but it remains unclear whether the $230 billion valuation is pre- or post-money, and the intended use of the funds has not been disclosed [7] - Previous reports indicated that xAI was seeking $15 billion in financing at a $200 billion valuation, which Musk later denied, calling the information "False" without further explanation [8][10] - Since its inception, xAI has seen a remarkable increase in valuation, from $500 million in 2023 to potentially $230 billion in less than a year [25] Company Growth and Product Development - xAI was officially announced in July 2023, initially positioning itself as a nonprofit organization with a broad mission to understand the universe's true nature [13][14] - The company has since shifted focus to the large model field, continuously updating its models and products, including the recently released Grok 4.1 [15][16] - Grok, xAI's main product, is integrated within the X (formerly Twitter) ecosystem, and the company has also launched an AI-driven online encyclopedia called Grokipedia [17] Competitive Landscape - Compared to OpenAI, which has a flagship product like ChatGPT generating over $200 million in monthly subscription revenue, xAI's user base and commercial impact are currently not at the same level [4][5] - The AI industry is witnessing a surge in valuations, with OpenAI's valuation rising from $300 billion to $500 billion, marking a nearly 67% increase [28]