1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 190 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped to 6.4%. New social financing scale was 2.4885 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 decreased from 8.2% to 8.0% due to the base effect, and the growth rate of M1 under the new caliber dropped from 6.2% to 4.9%. Overall, credit performance in November was weak, off - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented, with the household sector being the main drag. The "shopping festival" effect had limited impact, and the marginal effect of the real estate sprint weakened. Social financing growth was maintained due to corporate bond issuance, and the M2 growth rate declined slightly, with non - bank deposits and household deposits all decreasing year - on - year [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit: The household sector performed averagely, and the corporate sector was relatively better - **Household sector**: In November, household short - term loans decreased by 215.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 178.8 billion yuan, remaining significantly below the seasonal level. The "shopping festival" effect on household consumption was limited. Household medium - and long - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, slightly recovering from the previous month but still 290 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The real estate sales sprint had limited results, and the second - hand housing market continued to decline [2][10]. - **Corporate sector**: In November, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 170 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 40 billion yuan. The pull of policy - based financial instruments was limited, and it was the economic "off - season" at the end of the year, so it was difficult for corporate medium - and long - term loans to have significant increments. Corporate short - term loans were close to the seasonal level, and on - balance - sheet bills slightly supplemented. Bill financing increased by 334.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 211.9 billion yuan. The demand for low - price "ticket grabbing" was limited [2][11][18]. 3.2 Social Financing: Government bonds had a high base at the end of the year, and corporate bonds increased - **Government bonds**: In November, the issuance scale of government bonds increased, with new government bonds reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan. In December, affected by the base effect, the net financing of government bonds was expected to be 0.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate might fall to around 8.2% by the end of the year [3][22]. - **Corporate bonds and entrusted loans**: After the policy - based financial instruments were fully disbursed, entrusted loans turned negative, with a decrease of 18.8 billion yuan in November. November was the "peak season" for corporate bond issuance, with new corporate bonds reaching 416.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 178.8 billion yuan. Some enterprises replaced loans with bonds after the bond yields dropped significantly in October [3][25][28]. 3.3 Deposits: M1 growth rate declined, and non - bank deposits weakened - **M1**: The new - caliber M1 increased less month - on - month compared with the same period last year, and the M2 - M1 gap widened slightly. In November, the new - caliber M1 increased by 893.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped from 6.2% to 4.9% [4][27]. - **M2 components**: Non - bank deposits grew more slowly, and household deposits were slightly lower than the historical average. In November, non - bank deposits increased by 80 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 100 billion yuan; household deposits increased by 670 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 120 billion yuan. The process of household deposits moving to non - bank deposits slowed down during the volatile adjustment of the equity market since November [4][34].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the new social financing scale was not low, mainly driven by corporate credit and off - balance - sheet financing. However, the credit structure remained poor, with bill financing reaching a record high for the same period, corporate medium - and long - term loans at the lowest level since 2016 for the same period, and both short - term and medium - and long - term household loans at record lows for the same period. The credit demand of the real sector was significantly weak. Looking ahead, the net financing scale of government bonds in December may decline slightly month - on - month, still dragging down social financing. The intensive implementation of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instrument support projects from October to December may boost social financing to some extent, but the weak credit demand and the banks' desire to reserve projects for January next year may cause significant disturbances to social financing [6][33]. 3. Summary by Content Social Financing Aggregate - In November, the stock growth rate of social financing remained flat at 8.5%. The new social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 159.7 billion yuan year - on - year. Compared with the average of 2.3 trillion yuan in the same period of the past five years, the new social financing scale in November this year was not much different from the historical average, falling at the upper edge of the new scale in the same period of the past five years [2][8]. Factors Contributing to the Increase in Social Financing - Off - balance - sheet financing was one of the main contributors to the year - on - year increase in social financing this month. In November, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills in the off - balance - sheet financing items both increased year - on - year, supporting social financing. The new trust loan scale in November has generally declined compared with October since 2020, but this month's trend was anti - seasonal, possibly related to the recently launched new policy - based financial instrument support projects. In addition, corporate bonds were another supporting item for the increase in social financing this month. In November, new corporate bonds increased by 178.8 billion yuan to 416.9 billion yuan, the highest level in the same period since 2020, and were the only item with an increase in direct financing projects [3][15][18]. Credit Structure - There was a divergence between the total social financing and the credit structure. Although the overall performance of social financing in November was not bad, credit was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased by 360 billion yuan year - on - year to 610 billion yuan, mainly driven by short - term corporate loans and bill financing, while medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased year - on - year. Household sector credit had a negative growth for the first time in the same period in history [4][20]. - New medium - and long - term corporate loans were at the lowest level in the same period since 2016. The reasons for the year - on - year increase in corporate sector credit this year were the low base of corporate sector credit in November 2024 and the simultaneous efforts of short - term corporate loans and bill financing in November this year, which pushed up the corporate credit scale this month. In November, short - term corporate loans increased by 110 billion yuan year - on - year to 100 billion yuan, higher than the average of 50.2 billion yuan in the same period of the past five years. The new short - term corporate loan scale this year has always been at the upper edge of the historical same period, possibly because although the economy was sluggish, enterprises still needed a certain amount of funds for business turnover, and banks may also have vigorously issued short - term corporate loans at the end of the quarter to boost the scale. The new bill financing scale in November was at a record high for the same period, indicating that corporate credit issuance was still weak, and bill financing was used to increase the total credit scale. Medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased by 40 billion yuan year - on - year to 170 billion yuan, the lowest level in the same period since 2016, and the growth rate of the balance of medium - and long - term corporate loans further declined by 0.05 percentage points to 7.8%, having declined for 28 consecutive months [4][20][21]. - Household sector credit had a negative growth for the first time in the same period in history. In November, household sector credit decreased by 476.3 billion yuan year - on - year to - 206.3 billion yuan. Among them, short - term household loans decreased by 178.8 billion yuan year - on - year to - 215.8 billion yuan, also setting a record low for the same period. Contrary to short - term corporate loans, short - term household loans have basically been at the lower edge of the historical same period this year, and have even set record lows for the same period many times, possibly indicating weak household consumption willingness against the background of unstable income expectations. Medium - and long - term household loans decreased by 290 billion yuan year - on - year to 1 billion yuan, also the lowest value for the same period. The year - on - year growth rate of the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in November declined to - 30.91%, the lowest level since May 2024, while the growth rate of the commercial housing sales area in the same period last year was 11.6%, indicating that current household home - buying willingness was also weak [5][24]. M1 and M2 - The growth rate of M1 continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points. In November this year, the monthly incremental scale of M1 was 0.89 trillion yuan, while the incremental scale of M1 in November last year was 2.15 trillion yuan. As the impact of the ban on manual interest compensation had gradually dissipated and the low - base effect faded, the growth rate of M1 continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9% in November [6][25]. - Fiscal expenditure had limited support for M2. In terms of deposits, both household and corporate deposits decreased year - on - year in November, indicating that deposit creation was also not ideal against the background of sluggish loans. At the same time, non - bank deposits decreased by 100 billion yuan year - on - year to 80 billion yuan, and the new scale was significantly lower than that in the same period since 2022. Historically, the growth rate of the non - bank deposit balance had a certain similarity with the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index. The stock market had a slight correction in November, which may have led to a low new non - bank deposit scale in November. In summary, the growth rate of M2 further declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8% in November. In addition, fiscal deposits decreased by 190 billion yuan year - on - year to - 50 billion yuan. The fiscal expenditure intensity was generally weaker than that from 2021 to 2023 and stronger than that in 2024, but its support for the M2 growth rate was limited [6][30].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding the market average expectation of 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan[3] - The total social financing scale for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 33.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.99 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[3] - The growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 8.5%, unchanged from the previous month[3] Group 2: Loan and Financing Breakdown - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.28 trillion yuan[3] - Corporate loans increased by 4.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline[3] - Government bond financing reached 1.2 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan[4] Group 3: Market Trends and Implications - The corporate financing environment improved, as indicated by the BCI index rising to 52.50 in November from 52.41 in October[4] - The demand for residential loans remains weak, with short-term loans decreasing by 178.8 billion yuan and long-term loans decreasing by 290 billion yuan[3] - Policy-driven financial tools are beginning to show effects, particularly in infrastructure investment, which may influence corporate financing demand in the upcoming quarters[6]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for November indicates a notable improvement in corporate financing demand, with the initial effects of policy financial tools becoming evident. However, the residential sector remains a significant shortcoming, primarily due to the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [4][11]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing remained stable at 8.5% [1][5]. - The increase in real credit was 405.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The decline was primarily driven by a reduction in residential loans [6][7]. - Corporate loans remained strong, aligning with the high BCI corporate financing environment index for November, indicating a shift in bank assessments towards corporate sectors due to weak residential loan demand [2][7]. Group 2: Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan, with expectations for December financing to remain around 1.2 trillion yuan [8]. - Corporate bond financing increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, driven by policy encouragement for technology finance and lower financing costs [8][9]. Group 3: Trust and Other Financing Instruments - The amount of undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 149 billion yuan, reflecting a significant expansion in bank bill issuance, likely influenced by lower interest rates [9]. - Trust loans increased by 84.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.3 billion yuan, partly due to the spillover effects of policy financial tools on infrastructure financing [9]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued downward trend following a peak in September [10]. - M2 growth was recorded at 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to reduced credit generation [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The main highlight of the November financial data is the improvement in corporate financing demand, with a need to monitor the impact of policy financial tools in the upcoming quarters, especially in the construction sector [4][11].

社会融资规模、M2保持较高增速 货币政策持续发力 营造适宜总量环境 A02·财经要闻 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of November 2025, the total social financing scale reached 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - The increase in government debt and bonds has significantly contributed to the social financing scale, with new government debt totaling 11.86 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year [1] - The growth of corporate bonds and equity financing has accelerated, with net financing from corporate bonds reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 312.5 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Monetary Supply and Loans - By the end of November, the M2 money supply stood at 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - The balance of RMB loans reached 271 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, and a total increase of 15.36 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, which is about 30 basis points lower than the same period last year [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [40]. Core Insights - The growth of M2 is primarily driven by government and corporate leverage, with government leverage's contribution increasing from 23.9% in 2015 to 45.5% in 2025, while corporate leverage is expected to contribute 63.6% to M2 growth in 2025 [5][14]. - The report highlights a divergence between the social financing (社融) and M2 growth rates, indicating a liquidity accumulation in the financial system when the demand for financing from the real economy is insufficient, which can lead to a decline in bond yields [5][19]. - The expected social financing-M2 differential for 2026 is projected to be 0.56%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33 basis points [32]. Summary by Sections M2 and Liquidity Analysis - M2 includes cash, personal deposits, corporate deposits, non-bank deposits, and deposits from non-deposit financial institutions. The main contributors to M2 growth are government and corporate leverage [5][13]. - The report discusses the relationship between the social financing-M2 differential and bond market performance, noting a shift in correlation since the second half of 2022 [5][19]. Social Financing Projections - For 2026, the report forecasts a total of 16.3 trillion yuan in new loans under the social financing framework, with a growth rate of 8.11% [32][34]. - The report anticipates that the net issuance of government bonds will reach 14.8 trillion yuan in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a proactive fiscal policy [34]. M2 Growth Forecast - The M2 growth rate for 2026 is projected at 7.55%, influenced by factors such as net fiscal deposits, the strengthening of the equity market, and cross-border capital flows [32][36].

Economic Confidence Index - The "Economic Confidence Index" for December 2025 is reported at 50, slightly lower than the previous month, indicating a weak recovery in the economy [6][8]. Inflation Predictions - Economists predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 to be 0.72%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.05% [9][10]. Retail Sales Growth - The forecast for the year-on-year growth of social retail sales in November is 3.09%, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.9%, driven by the "Double 11" shopping festival and a recovery in the dining sector [10][11]. Industrial Value Added - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial value added in November is 5.0%, an increase from the previous month's 4.9% [11]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7%, indicating continued pressure from the real estate market [12][14]. Real Estate Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for real estate development investment in November is -15.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus for November is reported at $111.68 billion, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9%, aligning with economists' expectations [15]. New Loans - Economists forecast new loans for November to rebound to 679.1 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 220 billion yuan [16]. Total Social Financing - The predicted total social financing for November is 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous month's 0.81 trillion yuan [17]. M2 Growth Rate - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in November is 8.29%, slightly above the previous month's 8.2% [18]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists expect the possibility of adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and reserve requirement ratios to be low in the near term, with a continued focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [20]. Exchange Rate Predictions - The predicted exchange rate for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar at the end of 2025 is 7.07, with expectations of a potential adjustment to 6.98 by mid-2026 [21]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves are reported at $33,464 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Stock index and treasury bond volatility will increase. For stock index futures, the trading volume of the stock market has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, the number of falling stocks has increased significantly, and there may be a shift in hot sectors. It is recommended to hold a small position of long IF contracts. For treasury bond futures, the central bank has continued to conduct net repurchases in reverse repurchase operations, the domestic market interest rate has declined from a low level, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a small position of short treasury bond contracts [119][121][122] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **1.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 were in high-level oscillations [9] - **1.2 CSI 500 and 10-year Treasury Bonds**: The CSI 500 fell from a high level, and treasury bond futures declined [14] 2. Market Momentum Analysis - **2.1.1 Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 declined, while the trading volume of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 remained at a low level [20][24] - **2.1.2 Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan [28] - **2.1.3 Turnover Rate - Circulating Market Value**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 declined, and the turnover rates of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 declined significantly [31] - **2.2.1 CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors were relatively consistent [37] - **2.2.2 CSI 300 Sector ALPHA**: The ALPHA of the energy, materials, industry, and telecommunications sectors was positive, while the full-cycle ALPHA of the optional, consumer, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors was negative [41] - **2.3 Newly Listed Companies**: In November, the net increase in listed companies was 5 [47] - **2.4.1 Stock Index Positions**: Not detailed in the report - **2.4.2 Stock Index Premium or Discount**: Not detailed in the report - **2.5.1 Treasury Bond Trading - Positions**: Not detailed in the report - **2.5.2 Treasury Bond Basis - Cheapest-to-Deliver Bond**: Not detailed in the report 3. Fundamental Analysis - **3.1.1 Open Market Operations**: Not detailed in the report - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Yield to Maturity - CSI**: The IRR of the next-quarter treasury bond futures (10-year) declined significantly, while the IRR of the next-quarter treasury bond futures (5-year) was stable [77][80] - **3.1.3 Interbank Repurchase Weighted Average Interest Rate**: The interbank repurchase weighted average interest rate declined slightly [84] - **3.1.4 Shibor**: The short-term Shibor declined slightly [87] - **3.2.1 CPI - PPI**: In October, the CPI was 0.2%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached -2.1% [91] - **3.2.2 Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Activities**: In November, the PMI fell to 49.2, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 49.5, indicating weak economic recovery [96] - **3.3.1 Consumption Situation**: In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.9%, and the consumption data increased slightly [98] - **3.3.2 Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence showed a downward trend [106] - **3.4.1 Overall Money Supply**: In October, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, credit accelerated, and M1 was 6.2% [109] - **3.4.2 Newly Added RMB Loans**: In October, newly added RMB loans were 220 billion yuan [112] 4. Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume of the stock market has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, the number of falling stocks has increased significantly, and there may be a shift in hot sectors. It is recommended to hold a small position of long IF contracts [121] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank has continued to conduct net repurchases in reverse repurchase operations, the domestic market interest rate has declined from a low level, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds has rebounded. It is recommended to hold a small position of short treasury bond contracts [122]

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for November indicates a decline in social financing and M2 growth rates, with fixed asset investment and real estate remaining low year-on-year. Consumer spending is expected to be weak, influenced by the decline in subsidy-related goods, while exports and production show resilience. CPI is anticipated to rise, creating a favorable environment for price recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise from 0.2% to around 0.7% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in food prices, which are influenced by weather conditions affecting vegetable supply [3][10]. - The recent increase in food prices is likely to elevate the CPI baseline for next year, with the expected CPI tail effect for next year around 0%, higher than this year's -0.4% [3][11]. Group 2: Production and Exports - Industrial production is projected to grow at a rate of approximately 5.3% in November, supported by external demand [4][12]. - Exports are expected to increase by around 5% year-on-year in November, driven by a low base effect and resilient external demand, with manufacturing PMI new export orders showing improvement [4][13][14]. Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by about 2.4% year-to-date, with manufacturing investment down to 1.7% and real estate investment down to 15.5% [4][17]. - Real estate sales are expected to decrease by around 20% in November, with cumulative sales area down by 8.1% year-to-date [4][18]. Group 4: Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 2.6% in November, with essential consumption growing at 4.0% and subsidy-related items declining by 3.0% [4][22]. - The automotive sector is showing weakness, with retail sales down by 11.6% year-on-year in November [4][23]. Group 5: Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to be around 1.6 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 650 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with the growth rate of social financing stock expected to fall to about 8.3% [4][24]. - M2 growth is projected at around 8.0%, while M1 is expected to grow by approximately 5.6% [4][24].