Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is in a stage of phased recovery of internal and external demand, driving the PMI index to repair upward for two consecutive months [5][11][25]. - In the third quarter, the economic fundamentals still face several pressures, including the potential drag of high - temperature weather on production, the risk of demand decline as the driving force of reduced external uncertainties weakens, and the market's pessimistic outlook on the future fundamentals reflected by the decline of business operation expectations and employment indexes [5][25]. - Whether the existing policies can be implemented faster and whether the Politburo meeting in July can provide new incremental information may be important catalysts to help the bond market break the current volatile pattern [5][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand Repair Drives Strong Production - The demand index rose to the expansion range for the first time since the intensification of trade frictions in March, with the new order index rising 0.4 points, and the increase was greater than that of production, indicating the effect of domestic demand expansion policies and the dual suppression of production by seasonality and unclear demand prospects [3][11]. - The rebound of domestic demand may be mainly driven by national subsidies and the "618" shopping festival, with a fragile structure, and the decline of the employment index also reflects this [11]. - The new export order index's upward slope slowed down significantly, and the export replenishment based on the easing of trade frictions may be nearing the end, and external demand may face a quarterly decline in the second half of the year [3][16]. - High - temperature weather in July - August may further drag down manufacturing production [11][12][13]. 2. Price Index Moderate Repair - The raw material price index and the ex - factory price index increased by 1.5 points respectively compared with the previous month. The rise of the raw material price index may be related to the increased geopolitical risks leading to greater fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the increase in oil prices is transmitted to other raw material prices through transportation costs [4][19]. - The repair of the downstream price index may be related to the temporary suspension of national subsidies in some regions. After the central funds for trade - in are issued in July, the price trend of terminal products needs further attention [4][21]. 3. Strong Recovery in the Construction Industry - The drag of real estate on the construction industry has weakened. The construction industry PMI index rose 1.8 points to 52.8 this month, and the business activity index of housing construction returned to the expansion range [5][22]. - The business activity index of civil engineering construction was 56.7%, down 5.6 points from the previous month, but it has been in the high - prosperity range above 55.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that infrastructure is still the main force for the expansion of the construction industry [22]. - After the holiday effect fades, the consumer service industry has a seasonal decline, while the producer service industry is relatively strong [25].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China shows signs of recovery with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 49.7% in June, marking the highest level in three months and indicating a broadening of manufacturing activity [1][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - In June, 11 out of 21 surveyed industries are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, reflecting strong internal economic momentum [1]. - The production index reached 51.0%, and the new orders index rose to 50.2%, indicating a significant acceleration in manufacturing activities and improved market demand [3]. - The procurement index surged to 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting enhanced purchasing willingness among enterprises [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors all recorded PMIs above 50%, indicating continuous expansion for two consecutive months [4]. - The equipment manufacturing sector led with a PMI of 51.4%, while high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors had PMIs of 50.9% and 50.4%, respectively, showcasing robust growth in production and new orders [4]. - The high-energy consumption sector's PMI improved to 47.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and a shift towards greener practices [5]. Group 3: Enterprise Size Impact - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]. - Medium-sized enterprises saw a notable recovery with a PMI of 48.6%, increasing by 1.1 percentage points after two months of weak performance [6]. - The overall business activity index for the non-manufacturing sector was 50.5%, indicating a general acceleration in production and operational activities [6].

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2509） | 3885.8 | +7.6↑ IF次主力合约（2507） | 3906.4 | +10.8↑ | | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2689.0 | +7.2↑ IH次主力合约（2507） | 2693.0 | +8.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 5768.8 | +20.4↑ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5863.0 | +33.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6148.6 | +29.8↑ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6283.0 | +48.4↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1213.4 | +5.8↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1956.6 | +21.6↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 420.0 | +16.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3170.0 | +27.4↑ | | | IM ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月30日，国家统计局公布6月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.7%、前值49.5%；非制造业PMI为 50.5%、前值50.3%。 却下行至2023年来最低水平（52%）。展望后续，设备更新周期逐步退坡，出口链生产走弱，制造业景 气面临较大下行压力。但近期扩内需政策再加码，5000亿服务消费再贷款、准财政工具（政策性开发性 金融工具）已对服务业投资进行部署，服务消费、基建投资或加快修复，有望对企业和居民预期形成支 撑。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有改善。 制造业：制造业：制造业PMI有所回升，生产、新订单指数延续改善。 6月，制造业PMI边际上行0.2pct 至49.7%。生产、新订单指数边际分别上行0.3、0.3pct至51%、50.2%。 核心观点：制造业景气回升，但企业预期降至低位；政策加码下，需关注微观预期的变化。 6月制造业PMI表现好于市场预期，结构上依然是生产指数恢复更好。 6月制造业PMI延续回升，边际上 行0.2pct至49.7%，好于市场预期（WIND，49.3%）。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, but corporate expectations have dropped to a low level; increased policy support is needed to monitor changes in micro expectations [3][6][100] Manufacturing Sector - June manufacturing PMI improved to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, exceeding market expectations of 49.3% [2][10] - The production and new orders indices both rose, reaching 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating expansion [3][10] - The new orders index showed slight improvement, with domestic demand orders recovering more than new export orders [22][98] - High-frequency indicators reveal a year-on-year decline in foreign trade cargo volume, indicating reduced export strength [22][98] Industry Analysis - High-energy-consuming industries saw a significant PMI increase, rising 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%, driven by investment and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][28] - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also benefited from domestic demand, with PMIs rising to 51.4% and 50.4% respectively [4][28] - Food and beverage, as well as specialized equipment sectors, have maintained production and new order indices in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4][28] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating rapid progress in infrastructure projects [31][99] - The civil engineering PMI reached 56.7%, remaining in a high prosperity range for three consecutive months [31][99] - In contrast, the real estate sector's construction progress appears slower, with weak performance in cement and rebar consumption [31][99] Service Sector - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to the fading effects of holiday consumption [5][42] - Business activity indices in retail, transportation, and hospitality sectors showed varying degrees of decline, reflecting reduced market activity [5][42] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60% [5][42] Future Outlook - There are risks of weakening manufacturing sentiment, necessitating close attention to the impact of incremental policies on domestic demand and changes in corporate expectations [6][100] - Despite the recovery in production and new orders, the corporate expectation index has fallen to its lowest level in 2023 at 52% [6][100] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, may support corporate and consumer expectations [6][100]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to geopolitical conflicts, the shipping market has high trading difficulty. With no significant positive news, the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1299.58 points, down 0.64% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1586.05 points, down 28.91% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period [3]. - On June 20, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1578.60 points, up 6.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1256.91 points, up 14.8% from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Market Situation and Strategy - The online quotes have reached a bottleneck, and the market is volatile. If there are short positions, they can be held. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [2]. - Some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price - support measures. In the absence of more positive news, the market is prone to decline [5]. - On June 26, the main contract 2508 closed at 1759.9, up 1.24%, with a trading volume of 38,500 lots and an open interest of 41,500 lots, a decrease of 2043 lots from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: In the absence of an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000. Hold short positions and stop - loss long positions, and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [6]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [6]. 3.4 Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16% [6]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26% [6]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [6]. 3.5 Geopolitical Events - Since June 13, there have been conflicts between Israel and Iran. The cease - fire agreement between the two countries officially took effect after noon on the 24th. The repeated situation has affected international oil prices and the shipping market. The container transportation price from China to the Middle East has risen, with a single - container increase of about 50% [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that U.S. business activity has slightly slowed down in June due to significant tariffs imposed by the White House on imported goods, leading to increased costs and prices, which may accelerate inflation in the second half of the year [1] - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. Composite PMI output index fell from 53.0 in May to 52.8 in June, suggesting a slowdown in economic output from the private sector [1] - The Services PMI preliminary value decreased from 53.7 in May to 53.1, and the new orders index dropped from 53.0 to 52.3, indicating weakened market demand growth [1] Group 2 - Inflationary pressures have intensified, with manufacturers' input cost pressures rising sharply, as the price index surged to 70.0, the highest since July 2022, up from 64.6 in May [1] - Nearly two-thirds of manufacturers reported rising costs attributed to tariffs, which are being passed on to consumers, keeping the price indicators for goods and services elevated [1] - The manufacturers' price index jumped from 59.7 in May to 64.5, marking the highest level since July 2022 [1] Group 3 - Economists widely expect U.S. inflation rates to soar starting in June, with tariff policy uncertainties exacerbating the risks of rising inflation and sluggish economic growth, potentially leading to stagflation [2] - The rise in inflation expectations has led the Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate cut cycle, maintaining the benchmark overnight rate at 4.25%-4.50% [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that future inflation is expected to be "notable" [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily shipping container transportation report released on June 24, 2025, focusing on market trends and related factors in the shipping industry [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Crude oil prices dropped by 7%, and the market opened high and closed low. The game in the near - term is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1] - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period [1] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period. The SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period [1] - The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [1] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, the service PMI was 52.3, and the composite PMI was 52.1 [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategies - The European route has strong macro - attributes, and the game is difficult. Some shipping companies have announced price increases, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price support. The Sino - US second - round talks have no substantial progress, and the spot market price range is set. The market is prone to fall and difficult to rise [2] - Short - term strategy: In the absence of an obvious fundamental shift, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000, and stop losses have been recommended for long positions [2] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [2] Group 4: Geopolitical and Other Factors - The Middle East situation continues to deteriorate. Iran plans to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US - West route freight rate has dropped rapidly, and short - selling sentiment has risen [2] - On June 23, Iran launched the 21st round of the "True Promise - 3" operation against Israel, targeting military targets and military support centers in the north - south direction of the Jordan River West Bank centered on Haifa and Tel Aviv [3] - Goldman Sachs is worried about the possible supply interruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil has risen 20.6% this month to $76.9 per barrel. If the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is reduced by half in the first month and remains 10% lower in the next 11 months, the Brent crude oil price may briefly reach a peak of $110 per barrel [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, some liner companies have announced price increases for early July, boosting bullish sentiment, but the market has large fluctuations, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3] - The negotiation between China and the United States has no substantial progress, and the spot market price range is set. Without more positive news, the market is prone to fall rather than rise [3] - The CMA's price increase announcement and the ongoing Middle - East conflict lead to a strong oscillation in near - month contracts and a weak oscillation in far - month contracts due to many uncertainties [3] Summary According to Relevant Content Freight Index - On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1536.84 points, down 7.94% from the previous period; the European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4% from the previous period; the US West route was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 152.11 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62% from the previous period; the US West route was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% from the previous period [2] - On June 13, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1243.05 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; the European route was 1488.87 points, up 6.6% from the previous period; the US West route was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% from the previous period [2] Market and Policy Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, service PMI was 48.9, and composite PMI was 49.5; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [2] - In May, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April [2] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, service PMI was 52.3, and composite PMI was 52.1 [2] Contract and Strategy - On June 18, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 2092.0, up 3.18%, with a trading volume of 75,700 lots and an open interest of 42,800 lots, a decrease of 1734 lots from the previous day [3] - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is based on the basis convergence logic; for the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try shorting lightly when it rebounds above 2250; for the 2510 contract, try going long below 1450 and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate. Temporarily focus on the positive spread structure [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 16%, and the company's margin is adjusted to 26%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [3] Geopolitical Situation - On June 17, Israeli officials announced the destruction of the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, and the US President Trump is more inclined to strike Iran's nuclear facilities [4] - The Israel - Iran conflict makes the shipping industry uneasy, and many ships are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to an increase in shipping costs [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the SCFIS index has a small increase, the 06 contract has a large premium, spot freight rates fluctuate slightly, and the market is oscillating. Given that the European line has strong macro - attributes and the recent game is difficult, and there is no substantial progress in the Sino - US talks, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise without more positive news. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [1][2]. 3. Content Summary by Aspects Freight Rate Index - On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2908.68 points, up 33.1% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1307.92 points, up 16.4% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 2230.99 points, down 31.55% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 152.11 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1844 USD/TEU, up 10.62% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 4120 USD/FEU, down 26.51% from the previous period [1]. - On June 13, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1243.05 points, up 7.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1488.87 points, up 6.6% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1094.58 points, up 5.8% from the previous period [1]. Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49), services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1), and composite PMI flash was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5) [1]. - China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [1]. - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2), services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8), and composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6) [1]. Market Situation and Strategy - Crude oil dropped significantly last night. The European line has strong macro - attributes, and the recent game is difficult. Without more positive news, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise. Attention should be paid to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the ruling [2]. - On June 16, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.0, down 4.04%, with a trading volume of 65,900 lots and an open interest of 43,700 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from the previous day [2]. - Short - term strategy: The 2506 contract is mainly based on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2250, and try long positions for the 2510 contract below 1450, with stop - losses set [2]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to the near - strong and far - weak freight rate. Attention should be paid to the result of the court ruling, and the market is volatile. For now, it is mainly in a positive spread structure [2]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the market to stabilize after a pullback [2]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [2]. Geopolitical Situation - The Middle East situation continues to escalate. Israel and Iran have launched multiple rounds of attacks on each other. Iraq supports Iran and is committed to preventing the expansion of the conflict [3].