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断供19天,中国终于恢复安世供货,只对中国市场开放,所有交易一律使用人民币结算
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 09:33
Core Viewpoint - The recent actions taken by the Dutch government against Nexperia highlight the intricate connections between global supply chains and financial systems, as well as the strategic responses of Chinese companies under external pressures [1][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Nexperia China swiftly decided to halt exports and resume supply with a focus on RMB settlements following the Dutch government's intervention [1][3]. - The company announced a stop to external shipments based on China's export control announcement and later defined its sovereignty by prioritizing domestic market support [3]. - By shifting to RMB settlements, Nexperia China aims to mitigate potential geopolitical risks associated with the USD settlement system, which has been used by the U.S. to intervene in foreign economies [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Implications - Nexperia is a crucial supplier of automotive chips, with nearly 90% of its production capacity located in China, making European automakers highly dependent on its supply [7]. - The Dutch government's actions have intensified concerns about supply chain stability, potentially leading to significant losses for the automotive industry and the broader European economy [7]. - The situation reflects a broader trend of companies needing to assert autonomy and independence in the face of rising geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism [4][9]. Group 3: Strategic Significance - Nexperia China's response is indicative of a shift in the global industrial landscape, where companies are increasingly seeking to protect their sovereignty and operational independence [4][9]. - The move to RMB settlements not only secures financial transactions but also contributes to the internationalization of the RMB, showcasing a strategic pivot in global trade practices [3][9]. - The ongoing geopolitical dynamics necessitate that companies adopt dual strategies in technology and finance to secure their positions in the international market [9].
谁在真正支撑国际美元?答案不是美国,是我们
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 09:16
Core Insights - The dominance of the US dollar in international payments remains strong, holding a 47.79% share, followed by the euro at 22.77% and the British pound at 7.38% [1][3] - The Chinese yuan has made significant strides in international trade, now accounting for 7.28% of global cross-border trade finance, surpassing the euro [4][6] - The use of the yuan in China's own cross-border trade has increased from 16% to nearly 30% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a substantial rise in its acceptance [6] International Payment Landscape - The US dollar continues to dominate international payments with a 47.79% share, while the euro, pound, and yen follow with 22.77%, 7.38%, and 3.69% respectively [1] - The yuan ranks fifth in global payment currencies with a 3.17% share, closely followed by the Canadian dollar at 3.12% [3] Cross-Border Trade Dynamics - In the realm of cross-border trade finance, the yuan's share has reached 7.28%, overtaking the euro's 7% [4] - Despite being the largest commodity trader, China still relies heavily on the dollar for trade settlements, using the yuan for only about 30% of its cross-border transactions [6] Strategic Implications - The increase in yuan usage in cross-border trade reflects its growing acceptance and potential as a trade settlement currency [6] - A shift to a higher percentage of yuan settlements could significantly reduce the demand for dollars, impacting its role as a trade medium [9] Future Outlook - The gap between the yuan's current share in global payments (3.17%) and its potential growth in cross-border trade (7.28%) indicates significant room for expansion [10] - China's ongoing trade expansion and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative are expected to further promote yuan internationalization [10] - The US's confrontational policies may inadvertently accelerate the yuan's rise in the global financial system [10][11]
全球第五大活跃货币 如何看SWIFT人民币排名新变化?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 09:12
10月23日,环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)发布的人民币追踪(RMB Tracker)月度报告和数据统计 显示,2025年9月,在基于金额统计的全球支付货币排名中,人民币为全球第五大活跃货币,占比 3.17%。与8月相比,排名上升一位,人民币支付金额总体增加了15.53%。 SWIFT公布的是月度报告,更新频率高,因此全球货币的榜单排名时常起起伏伏。今年以来,SWIFT统 计的人民币在全球支付货币中的份额排名就在第四位到第六位之间波动,占比从去年7月4.74%的高点 降至今年9月的3.17%。SWIFT统计口径下人民币排名波动有何原因?SWIFT公布的人民币排名又能在 多大程度上反映人民币国际化进展?这些问题一直受到市场关注。 受访人士表示,衡量货币的国际化程度是多维度的,SWIFT排名只是从货币的支付功能角度呈现。人民 币国际化必然是一个长期过程,不会一蹴而就。 值得注意的是,报文内容只是金融活动的"语言",负责信息传递,并不直接处理资金划转。换言之, SWIFT基于支付报文金额所统计的全球支付货币指标,并不等同于实际支付金额,且统计范围仅限于 SWIFT成员间。 其次,有的经济体除跨境支付业务外,其境 ...
SWIFT数据低估人民币国际使用,多纬度指标印证地位攀升
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 07:55
Core Insights - The recent SWIFT data indicates that the Chinese yuan has risen to the fifth position in global payment currency rankings, with a share of 3.17%, reflecting a 15.53% increase in payment amounts compared to the previous month [1][2] - The fluctuations in SWIFT's data have led to public confusion regarding the actual status of the yuan in international payments, highlighting the need for clarity in statistical measures [1][2] SWIFT's Role and Limitations - SWIFT is a major financial messaging service provider, connecting over 11,000 financial institutions across more than 200 countries, and its data is often used to gauge currency internationalization [2] - However, SWIFT's statistics are limited to its own messaging system and do not encompass all international currency usage scenarios, leading to an underestimation of the yuan's actual cross-border payment share [2][3] CIPS and Cross-Border Payments - The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) plays a crucial role in facilitating cross-border yuan transactions, processing 8.22 million transactions worth 175 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 24% and 43% respectively [2][3] - CIPS supports both fund flows and information flows, enhancing the yuan's cross-border payment capabilities [2] Comparative Currency Statistics - Different currencies have asymmetric statistical coverage; for instance, the euro and pound often utilize SWIFT for domestic payments, while yuan domestic payments can be processed through independent systems, leading to data discrepancies [3] - A unified statistical approach could better reflect the yuan's position as the third-largest global payment currency [3] Comprehensive Data on Yuan Internationalization - The People's Bank of China provides comprehensive data that indicates the yuan's increasing international usage, with cross-border payments reaching 34.9 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 14% increase year-on-year [4] - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the yuan's share in foreign exchange trading rose to 8.5% in April 2025, up from 7% in 2022, solidifying its fifth-place ranking [5] Investment and Reserve Indicators - As of the first quarter of 2025, the yuan's reserve currency status has improved, with a reported holding of 246.3 billion USD, representing 2.12% of global reserves, an increase since its inclusion in the SDR [6] - The demand for yuan-denominated assets is growing, with foreign holdings of yuan-denominated stocks and bonds reaching 10.4 trillion yuan by mid-2025, a 5.2% increase [5] Yuan Internationalization Indices - The Renminbi Internationalization Index (RII) and the Renminbi Global Index (RGI) are key metrics for assessing the yuan's international usage, with the RII indicating a value of 5.68, placing it third among major currencies [7] - The RGI has shown consistent growth, reaching 4666 points by July 2025, reflecting the expansion of offshore yuan business and its internationalization [7]
俄欧闹僵!欧盟用俄1400亿资产援乌,中国外贸恐受影响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 05:50
Group 1: EU Financial Plan - The EU is planning a significant financial initiative to utilize frozen Russian state assets as collateral for a special loan totaling €140 billion, aimed at supporting Ukraine's fiscal budget and post-war reconstruction over the next two to three years [1] - The decision to use these assets has heightened tensions in EU-Russia relations and may introduce uncertainties into the international financial system, potentially affecting foreign trade enterprises in China [3][10] Group 2: Belgium's Role - Belgium's change in stance is pivotal, as it previously opposed the EU's plan due to concerns over potential compensation liabilities and the impact on investor confidence in the European clearing system [3] - The EU has provided Belgium with "safeguards," including a shared risk of approximately €25 billion among EU member states and a proposed risk compensation mechanism to support Belgium in case of compensation claims [5] Group 3: Legal and Political Implications - The legality of the EU's actions is contentious, with Russia labeling it as "state-level plunder," reflecting broader geopolitical anxieties within the EU as it seeks to maintain influence in Ukraine amid waning U.S. support [10][16] - The EU's unconventional approach to utilizing frozen assets is driven by Ukraine's urgent fiscal needs, with a projected budget shortfall of $60 billion over the next two years [10] Group 4: Impact on Chinese Enterprises - Chinese enterprises, particularly those involved in cross-border trade, may face challenges due to potential delays in payments and increased operational complexities if the credibility of the European clearing system is undermined [12][13] - The reliance on the Euro for trade settlements could lead to increased costs and operational difficulties for Chinese companies if they are forced to switch to alternative currencies [12] Group 5: Opportunities Amidst Risks - The EU's actions may accelerate Russia's push for increased use of the Renminbi in trade, providing Chinese enterprises with opportunities to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and mitigate exchange rate fluctuations [15] - Financial institutions in China are already establishing direct clearing relationships with Central Asian banks to support cross-border trade, which could enhance the Renminbi's position in global trade settlements [15] Group 6: Strategic Considerations for China - Chinese foreign trade enterprises should prepare for potential operational delays or credit contractions from the European clearing bank and diversify their settlement pathways to manage currency risk [18] - The evolving financial landscape presents a strategic opportunity for China to expand its cross-border business network centered around the Renminbi, positioning itself advantageously in the global trade ecosystem [18]
石油美元的黄昏?人民币撬动中东的三种姿势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 05:11
Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that as of the end of Q2 2025, the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest since 1995, while the Chinese yuan has made significant inroads in international energy settlements, particularly with Saudi Arabia [3] - The structural weakening of the petrodollar system is accelerating, highlighted by Saudi Arabia's shift towards multi-currency settlement mechanisms and the completion of the first oil transaction using digital yuan, significantly reducing transaction times [3][4] - The transition from a petrodollar system to a multi-currency framework is driven by concerns over the risks associated with dollar dependency and the strategic diversification efforts of oil-producing countries [4][5] Group 1: Energy Settlement Changes - The shift in the Middle Eastern energy settlement system is rooted in a profound change in the stance of oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, which has expressed openness to using currencies other than the dollar for oil transactions [4] - The geopolitical risks associated with the dollar system, especially following the financial sanctions against Russia, have prompted oil-producing nations to seek alternatives to reduce reliance on a single currency [4][5] - China's position as the largest energy importer and its growing trade with Saudi Arabia, which reached $107.53 billion in 2024, underscores the importance of diversifying currency use in energy transactions [4] Group 2: Financial Circulation and Investment - Establishing a financial circulation system that allows yuan to flow in and out of the Middle East is crucial for the yuan's acceptance as a stable currency [10] - The issuance of yuan-denominated sovereign bonds by China in the Middle East, which saw a subscription rate of nearly 20 times the amount offered, reflects strong investor confidence in Chinese credit [10][12] - The expansion of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and the establishment of currency swap agreements with over 40 countries facilitate the use of yuan in international trade and investment [11][12] Group 3: Economic Cooperation and Trust - The deepening of economic cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries, moving beyond oil trade to infrastructure and technology, is essential for building trust in the yuan [14][15] - Projects like the China-Saudi Arabia Special Economic Zone and the Jizan Economic City highlight the growing demand for yuan-denominated transactions in various sectors [14][15] - The collaboration in green energy and high-tech sectors further solidifies the reliability of China as a partner, enhancing the yuan's stability and acceptance [15][16] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Challenges - The decline of the petrodollar system is influenced by historical factors, including the US's use of financial sanctions, which have raised concerns among traditional allies about the risks of dollar dependency [19][20] - Despite the weakening of the petrodollar, the dollar's entrenched position in global trade and finance presents challenges for the yuan's internationalization [20][22] - The geopolitical dynamics and the US's potential response to the de-dollarization trend could pose significant hurdles for the yuan's rise as a global currency [20][22] Conclusion - The transition towards a multi-currency system is underway, with the yuan gaining traction in the Middle East, signaling a shift away from dollar dominance and towards a more balanced international monetary order [22][23]
外汇局最新发声!|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-24 04:56
Core Viewpoint - The National Foreign Exchange Administration aims to enhance the foreign exchange management system in Shanghai, focusing on making it more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent to support the city's development as an international financial center [3][5]. Group 1: Financial Market Opening - The administration has been steadily expanding financial market openness, enhancing the interconnectivity of domestic and foreign financial markets, and improving the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, which has increased foreign investment attractiveness [3][4]. - China's bond and stock markets rank second globally, with foreign holdings of RMB financial assets exceeding 10 trillion RMB, significantly boosting Shanghai's international competitiveness [3][4]. Group 2: Cross-Border Trade and Investment Policies - A series of innovative cross-border trade and investment facilitation policies have been introduced, particularly in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone and Lingang New Area, establishing a replicable "Shanghai experience" [4][6]. - The administration supports high-tech enterprises in Shanghai to access cross-border financing more easily, enhancing the efficiency of global fund management for companies [4]. Group 3: Headquarters Economy - Currently, 170 multinational companies have established funding pools in Shanghai, managing over 250 billion USD in external debt and over 80 billion USD in overseas loans, which has significantly improved global fund management efficiency [4]. Group 4: Enhancing Foreign Exchange Services - The administration is guiding banks in Shanghai to reform foreign exchange operations, resulting in a 50% reduction in processing time for foreign exchange transactions for high-quality clients [4][6]. - The focus is on balancing convenience and risk prevention through institutional reforms, continuous innovation, and technology empowerment [4][6]. Group 5: Future Considerations - Future plans include further expanding high-level institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector, promoting cross-border trade and investment facilitation, and ensuring that financial openness is underpinned by security measures [5][6]. - The administration emphasizes a dual approach of macro-prudential and micro-regulatory management to prevent risks across regions, markets, and borders, ensuring that effective risk prevention supports high-quality development and openness [6].
刘斌:统筹人民币国际化与资本项目高质量开放,强化本外币一体化管理
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 03:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the conference is to embrace changes and establish a new order and new technology in the context of foreign exchange management [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) aims to enhance the foreign exchange management system to be more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent, supporting the development of Shanghai as an international financial center [1] - The first focus is on steadily expanding high-level institutional opening in the foreign exchange sector, emphasizing the integration of RMB internationalization and high-quality capital account opening [1] Group 2 - The second focus is on promoting the convenience of cross-border trade and investment financing, adhering to the principle of "the more honest, the more convenient" for compliant entities [2] - The third focus is on balancing financial openness with security, emphasizing the need for a dual management approach of macro-prudential and micro-regulation to prevent risk transmission across regions and markets [2]
拉卡拉三季度科技服务收入同比增长108.75%
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-10-24 03:09
Core Insights - Lakala reported a revenue of 1.417 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.72%, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 17.46% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.068 billion yuan and a net profit of 339 million yuan, with a total transaction volume of 2.99 trillion yuan in domestic and cross-border payments [1] - The cross-border payment volume reached 60.2 billion yuan, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 77.56% [1] - The company is actively pursuing a "Payment + SaaS" transformation, with technology service revenue growing by 108.75% year-on-year in Q3 [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Lakala's revenue was 1.417 billion yuan, with a net profit of 110 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 4.068 billion yuan and net profit was 339 million yuan [1] - The company reported a total transaction volume of 2.99 trillion yuan, maintaining a leading position in the industry [1] Cross-Border Payment Growth - Cross-border payment volume reached 60.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 77.56% [1] - The number of cross-border payment merchants and transaction amounts grew by 71.91% and 77.56% respectively in the first three quarters [2] - Lakala is the only domestic independent third-party payment institution with full brand foreign card acquiring qualifications, with foreign card transaction coverage increasing by nearly 20% year-on-year [2] SaaS and Digital Transformation - The company is focusing on the "Payment + SaaS" strategy, particularly in high-stickiness verticals like dining and retail [3] - Lakala's restaurant SaaS has served over 80,000 mid-to-high-end active dining stores, contributing to a 108.75% year-on-year increase in technology service revenue [3] - The retail SaaS product has also shown steady growth, serving over 100,000 merchants and significantly increasing the number of quality clients [3] AI Integration - Lakala is integrating AI technology into its payment and SaaS systems, being the first in the industry to launch an AI wallet [3] - As of September 30, the AI wallet had nearly 8 million registered users, with 1.5 million monthly active users [3]
人民币支付占比冲到 3.17%!跨境花钱不用换汇,这些变化太实在
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 01:54
你别说,这事儿背后不是偶然。以前总听人说人民币国际化是大企业的事儿,跟咱小老百姓没关系,现在才 发现早渗透到生活里了。我去年去东南亚旅游,在夜市买芒果糯米饭,老板直接问能不能给人民币,当时还 觉得新鲜,现在想想,这就是支付占比涨起来的底气啊。银行的朋友说,现在跨境收付差不多一半都用人民 币,不用经过美元中转,省了不少麻烦。 对了,企业那边的变化更明显。铜陵有家公司往香港放款,直接用人民币走 CIPS 系统,五百万一下就转过 去了。以前这种跨境资金调动,光手续就得办好几天,还得担心汇率波动。现在企业省事了,咱们消费者也 跟着沾光 —— 那些进口的化妆品、母婴用品,成本降了,价格自然也更实在。 其实最让人省心的是汇率风险。我闺蜜做代购,前几年总吐槽 "一天一个价",有时候货囤着没卖出去,汇率 跌了就白忙活。现在好多供货商都接受人民币结算,她直接按当天价付款,再也不用熬夜盯着外汇牌价了。 这就是专家说的 "减少货币错配风险" 吧?不过咱不用懂那些术语,知道花钱更踏实了就行。 当然了,这 3.17% 的占比跟美元欧元比还有差距,但涨得挺快的,比八月多了不少。而且不只是消费,现在 八十多个国家的央行都把人民币当储备货币 ...