Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Copper Weekly Report (11.17 - 11.21) - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.43% to 85,600 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. Global instability remains, while force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the rise of precious metals supported copper prices. In China, it's the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.43% to 85,600 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs disturbed copper prices. Global instability persists, and force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and the rise of precious metals supported copper prices. In China, it's the consumption off - season, and downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 PMI - No specific PMI data or analysis is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, the supply - demand is in tight balance, and in 2025, there will be an oversupply. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production was 12.06 million tons, import was 3.73 million tons, export was 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was 0.11 million tons [12][15]. 3.2.3 Inventory - LME copper inventory was 155,025 tons, with a slight increase last week. SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons. Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [4][16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [22]. 3.3.2 CFTC Position - CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Difference - No specific analysis of the futures - spot price difference is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profit - No specific analysis of import profit is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific analysis of warehouse receipts is provided in the report.

Core Viewpoint - Russia is selling liquefied natural gas (LNG) at a significant loss, with prices reportedly at a 40% discount, indicating a desperate need to maintain cash flow and customer relationships amid Western sanctions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The buyer of the LNG is China, while the seller is Novatek, with the gas sourced from the Arctic LNG 2 project, which has recently commenced production [2][3]. - The project aims to produce 19.8 million tons of LNG annually, primarily for export to Asia, especially China and India [3]. - Due to U.S. sanctions, including restrictions on insurance and financing, Russia faces significant challenges in exporting its LNG, leading to a situation where production continues without any shipments [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Russia's decision to sell at a loss is a strategic move to secure a long-term customer base in China, as other markets like the EU and India are reducing their reliance on Russian energy [6][8]. - The geopolitical landscape has shifted, with China emerging as a key player willing to purchase Russian energy despite U.S. pressures, highlighting a significant realignment in global energy supply chains [10][12]. - The ongoing collaboration between Russia and China is seen as a pragmatic response to the current geopolitical climate, with both countries benefiting from the arrangement [15][17]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The continuation of this energy partnership is contingent on the persistence of Western sanctions and the need for both countries to maintain their respective energy strategies [19][21]. - Russia's internal reports emphasize the necessity of maintaining production levels to ensure the continuity of its energy export strategy, even at a loss [19][23]. - The evolving energy landscape suggests that as long as demand remains and sanctions persist, the current pricing strategy may continue, potentially leading to further discounts to secure long-term contracts [23][25].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have declined due to geopolitical factors, with Brent and WTI prices at $62.56 and $58.06 per barrel respectively as of November 21, 2025 [9][22] - The oil and petrochemical sector has seen a decrease of 2.99% in the past week, while the broader market (CSI 300) fell by 3.77% [10][12] - The report highlights a potential restart of peace talks between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict, which may impact oil prices [9] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $62.56 per barrel, down $1.83 (-2.84%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures fell to $58.06, down $2.03 (-3.38%) [22] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, including US sanctions on Russian oil, have influenced market dynamics [9] Offshore Drilling Services - As of November 17, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 365, a decrease of 5 from the previous week [25] Oil Supply - US crude oil production was reported at 13.834 million barrels per day as of November 14, 2025, a decrease of 28,000 barrels from the previous week [36] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 419 as of November 21, 2025 [36] Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing increased to 16.232 million barrels per day as of November 14, 2025, up by 259,000 barrels from the previous week [46] Oil Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 835 million barrels, a decrease of 2.893 million barrels (-0.35%) [56] - Strategic oil inventory increased by 533,000 barrels (+0.13%) to 411 million barrels [56] Refined Oil Prices - In North America, average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $107.63, $81.99, and $98.74 per barrel respectively as of November 21, 2025 [78]

人只有在最无助的时候，才知道谁是真朋友，谁是假兄弟，这句话用在现在的德国身上，简直太贴切了。就在几个月前，德国政客还在跟着美国后面喊"去 风险"，甚至对中国的廉价商品嗤之以鼻，摆出一副"高贵欧洲人"的架子。 然而，随着特朗普挥舞起关税大棒，无差别地收割欧洲盟友，德国经济瞬间陷入了寒冬。被美国背刺的德国，终于清醒了过来。 财长克林拜尔火速访华，不仅不再提那些刺耳的指责，反而把拿到中国稀土承诺当成了救命稻草。这一幕深刻地揭示了地缘政治的残酷真相：美国的盟友， 不过是美国的耗材；而中国，才是德国工业最后的避风港。 德国被迫重回中国怀抱 11月20日，德国政府公布的最新数据显示，今年前三季度，德国与中国的贸易总额逆势增长0.6%，达1859亿欧元，中国成功反超美国，再次成为德国最大 贸易伙伴。 与此同时，德国对美贸易额下降了3.9%。这一数据反转的背景，是特朗普重返白宫后，对欧盟实施了高达15%的基准关税。正是在这种巨大的外部压力下， 德国财长克林拜尔展开了访华之旅，并将获得中方关于稀土和关键原材料供应的承诺，视为此行的"最大成就"。 他之前可能也觉得中国包裹是"垃圾"，觉得中国制造冲击了德国产业。但当美国关税的大山 ...

震荡磨底之中 短期低点已现 原油周报 2025/11/22 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 05 原油需求 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/1 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the escalation of U.S.-China tensions, particularly focusing on trade tariffs and military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region, raising concerns about potential conflict [1][3][8] Trade Relations - Following Trump's return to the White House, a series of tariffs were imposed on Chinese goods, starting with an additional 10% on February 1, 2025, and escalating to an average tariff rate of 54% by April 2, 2025 [3] - In response, China implemented export controls on critical materials and imposed an 84% tariff on U.S. products, leading to negotiations that resulted in a temporary reduction of tariffs on both sides [5][7] Military Tensions - The U.S. conducted unprecedented military exercises with the Philippines and Japan, involving over 14,000 troops, including significant participation from U.S. and Japanese forces, in sensitive areas [8] - In contrast, the Chinese military demonstrated its capabilities by conducting operations near the Philippines, showcasing its naval strength with aircraft carrier groups [10][11] Economic Impact - The trade tensions have forced companies to restructure supply chains, leading to increased costs for consumers in the U.S. and pushing Chinese firms to seek new growth opportunities domestically and in the Belt and Road regions [7] - Despite a temporary easing of trade tensions, the geopolitical situation remains tense, with ongoing military provocations from the U.S. and its allies [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market crash is described as a "perfect storm" caused by multiple factors, leading to a significant loss of investor confidence. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Northbound capital, often seen as "smart money," has been a major force in the sell-off, with over 10 billion net outflow in a single day and continuous withdrawal over several trading days [1] - Quantitative trading has exacerbated the situation, with automated strategies triggering stop-loss orders and creating a negative feedback loop during market declines [2] - Retail investors, through mutual funds, have experienced "institutionalized losses," leading to a cycle of forced selling as fund net values drop below critical thresholds [4] Group 2: Economic and Policy Factors - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a collapse in systemic expectations, with significant declines in exports, real estate sales, and consumer spending [8] - The market is currently in a "policy shout period" with uncertainty about the effectiveness of future policies, contributing to investor anxiety [6] - The supply-demand imbalance in the market is highlighted by a surge in IPOs under the registration system, while delistings remain scarce, leading to a saturated market [10] Group 3: Historical Context - Historical market crashes, such as those in 2008, 2015, 2018, and 2022, illustrate that while each crash appears unique, quality assets tend to recover and reach new highs over time [11][12][13][14] - The current situation is noted as the most complex in the past decade, influenced by macroeconomic, geopolitical, and market ecological pressures [14] Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, considering whether they are investing in stocks or companies, and to maintain a cash reserve for market downturns [15][16] - Emphasis is placed on selecting high-quality stocks with strong fundamentals and management, akin to investing in real estate rather than trading [17] - The importance of avoiding leverage and chasing market trends is highlighted as essential for survival in a bear market [18]

日本首相高市早苗回应此前的言论：政府将在检视所有可用资讯后，再以逐案方式判定一起地缘政治事件是否构成存亡危机事态。🗒️11月7日，高市早苗在国会答询中表示，“中国攻打台湾可能构成日本的‘存亡危机事态’，在此情况下，日本可以行使集体自卫权”。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):日本首相高市早苗：与中国达成共识，两国将建立互利共赢的建设性、稳定关系方向不变。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Rebound and short [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, with most products showing bearish or cautiously bearish trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical disturbances, and cost - related issues. Some products like PTA and natural gas show bullish or cautiously bullish trends because of improved supply - demand and seasonal demand factors respectively [1][3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: WTI decreased by 0.42%, Brent by 0.20%, and SC by 1.77%. WTI was at $59/barrel, Brent at $63.38/barrel, and SC at 455 yuan/barrel [6][7] - **Basic Logic**: Core driver is supply surplus and inventory accumulation; short - term driver is geopolitical disturbance [8] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi's September exports reached 646 million barrels/day. OPEC predicts 2025 demand increment of 130 million barrels/day and 2026 of 138 million barrels/day. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [445 - 455] [10] LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 20, PG main contract closed at 4382 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to crude oil price, with downstream开工率下降 and inventory accumulation [13] - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on PG in the range of [4350 - 4450] [14] L - **Market Performance**: L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [16] - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, domestic开工率 seasonal increase, import arrival concentration, and weak downstream demand [18] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on L in the range of [6800 - 6950] [18] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [21] - **Basic Logic**: Following cost decline, high inventory, and insufficient demand [22] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term. Focus on PP in the range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [25] - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low - valuation support [26] - **Strategy**: Industry hedging at high prices. Look for low - long opportunities. Focus on V in the range of [4400 - 4650] [26] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4754 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Low processing fees, increased device maintenance, and relatively good downstream demand. Cost - side PX is strong [28] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on TA in the range of [4670 - 4750] [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: EG01 was at 4013 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Increased domestic coal - based device maintenance, new device production, and weakening downstream demand expectations. Inventory accumulation expected in November [31] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG in the range of [3790 - 3850] [32] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [33] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppressing prices, high domestic and overseas device开工率, and weak demand [35] - **Strategy**: Short positions held cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on 05 contract at low prices [3] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1652 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: High supply, weakening demand, and high inventory [39] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on UR in the range of [1645 - 1675] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 20, NG main contract closed at $4.753/million British thermal units, up 3.48% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Seasonal demand increase, cost - profit improvement, and supply - demand situation [44] - **Strategy**: Price is likely to rise but upside is limited. Focus on NG in the range of [4.548 - 4.901] [45] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 20, BU main contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [47] - **Basic Logic**: Following crude oil price, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit situation [48] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [3000 - 3100] [49] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [52] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline difficult, weak domestic demand due to falling real - estate prices [53] - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1000 - 1050] [53] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [54] - **Basic Logic**: Decreased demand support and high - production cycle [5] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rebound to short in the long - term [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks collectively declined, influenced by a drop in international oil prices and geopolitical developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CNOOC Limited (601808) fell by 3.07%, trading at HKD 7.59 [1] - PetroChina (00857) decreased by 2.67%, trading at HKD 8.76 [1] - Sinopec (00386) dropped by 2.41%, trading at HKD 4.45 [1] - CNOOC (00883) declined by 1.64%, trading at HKD 21.6 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The Ukrainian President's office announced that President Zelensky has officially received a peace plan draft from the U.S. regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - Zelensky is expected to have a detailed discussion with President Trump about diplomatic possibilities and core elements for achieving peace [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Citigroup indicated that the future direction of the oil market will depend on geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production strategies, and changes in U.S. domestic policies [1] - The market needs to closely monitor the actions of major oil-producing countries and U.S. policy signals in the global energy market [1]