Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3784 points, marking a ten-year high. Sectors such as stablecoins and financial technology saw significant gains [1] - The A500 ETF managed by E Fund (159361) recorded a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, with its latest scale reaching 18.3 billion yuan, setting a historical high [1] - The financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 1.08 trillion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 1.04 trillion yuan, reflecting increases of 7.85 billion yuan and 7.47 billion yuan respectively, resulting in a combined financing balance of 2.13 trillion yuan, achieving a new high for the year [1] Group 2 - The continuous increase in financing balance indicates sustained market activity, suggesting that broad-based indices may attract attention [1] - The CSI A500 Index focuses on core assets, comprising 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity across various sectors, including electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals, driving both "core assets" and "new productive forces" [1] - The A500 ETF's management fee is only 0.15% per year, providing investors with a low-cost option to invest in core A-share assets [1]

据路透社，中国正考虑首次允许使用人民币支持的稳定币，以促进人民币在全球范围内的更广泛采用，这是其对数字资产立场的重大转变；中国可能将于 本月晚些时候审查并可能批准一项路线图，以促进全球范围内人民币的使用，包括跟上美国对稳定币的推动；该计划预计将包括人民币在全球市场上的使 用目标，并概述国内监管机构的职责，并补充说，该路线图还将包括风险预防指南；中国预计最早将于本月底举行一次学习会议，重点讨论人民币国际化 和稳定币问题，这两个问题在全球范围内正日益受到关注；会议可能会发表讲话，为稳定币定下基调，并明确其在商业中的应用和发展的界限；在与美元 挂钩的加密货币在全球金融中的影响力日益增强的背景下，北京方面认为金融创新，特别是稳定币，是人民币国际化的有希望的工具。 （来源：吴说） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 21, 2025. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures like gold, silver, and others will also have specific trends including strong oscillation, wide - range oscillation, or weak oscillation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4300 and 4330 points and support levels at 4270 and 4244 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2509, TL2509) are likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation, with T2509 expected to test support levels at 109.95 and 107.91 yuan and resistance levels at 108.12 and 108.19 yuan [2]. - Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) futures are predicted to have a relatively strong oscillation. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 777.3 and 779.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 775.5 and 773.3 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper (CU2510) futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78400 and 78200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78800 and 79000 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina (AO2601), industrial silicon (SI2511), polycrystalline silicon (PS2511), and other futures have their own expected trends and support/resistance levels [3]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China has a series of policy - related news, such as the promotion of major projects in Tibet, the support for the biomedical industry, and the regulation of PPP projects [7][8]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with differences in views on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [9]. - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, higher than previous forecasts [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 20, 2025, major stock index futures contracts (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) showed a trend of opening slightly lower, then rising after a decline. For example, IF2509 closed at 4270.0 points, up 1.16% [13]. - The A - share market showed a strong rebound in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new ten - year high. The securities sector has performed well since August, and the scale of securities ETFs has increased significantly [15][16]. - For August 2025, different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF having a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 20, 2025, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2509, TL2509) opened slightly higher, then declined after a rebound. T2509 closed at 107.855 yuan, down 0.18% [34]. - The central bank conducted 6160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 20, with a net investment of 4975 billion yuan [35]. - The LPR remained stable in August, in line with market expectations [36]. Commodity Futures - Gold (AU2510) futures closed at 772.68 yuan/gram on August 20, 2025, down 0.35%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [42]. - Silver (AG2510) futures closed at 9042 yuan/kg on August 20, 2025, down 1.86%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [48]. - Other commodity futures such as copper, alumina, and industrial silicon also have their own trends on August 20 and expected trends for August and August 21 [51][56][59].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity's trend is described as high - level shock, small decline, range shock, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to experience high - level shock. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 772.68, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Comex Gold 2510 rose by 0.99% to 3392.20. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][6]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to have a small decline. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9042, down 1.57%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%. The trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,265, up 0.27%. The trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,725, down 0.59%. The trend strength is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,840, down 0.09%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to experience high - level shock. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,535, down 10. The trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals will cause narrow - range fluctuations, and beware of news - based risks. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,930, down 400. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820, down 65. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The game between reality and expectations intensifies, and the market volatility will increase. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040, down 6,540. The trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is boosted. The Si2511 closing price was 8,390, down 235. The trend strength is 1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted. The PS2511 closing price was 51,875, down 385. The trend strength is 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly reversed, and support remains. The trend strength is 1 [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,132, down 12; HC2510 was 3,402, down 21. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment is cold, and both will experience weak - side fluctuations. The closing price of Silicon Ferroalloy 2511 was 5622, down 56; Manganese Ferroalloy 2511 was 5818, down 80. The trend strength for both is - 1 [2][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of JM2601 was 1162.5, down 32; J2601 was 1678, down 30.5. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][50]. - **Log**: The price will fluctuate repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 805.5, down 0.6%. The trend strength is 0 [2][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: Crude oil rebounds, demand improves, and it is unilaterally strong. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6844, up 1.03%. - **PTA**: Cost provides support, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4778, up 0.93%. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of overseas supply contraction, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4477, up 1.20% [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentals provide strong support, and go long on macro - pullbacks. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it will experience high - level shock consolidation. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, rapeseed meal was weak, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. - **Soybean No.1**: Will experience weak - side fluctuations. - **Corn**: Will operate weakly. - **Sugar**: Will be strong with fluctuations. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton. - **Egg**: Pay attention to the culling rhythm of old hens. - **Live Pig**: Wait for the end - of - month spot verification. - **Peanut**: Near - term contracts are strong, and far - term contracts are weak [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - ZhongAn Online (06060) is currently trading at 1.1x 2025e P/B, with the company maintaining an outperform rating due to better-than-expected trends in virtual banking profitability and underwriting improvements, leading to an upward revision of 2025/2026e EPS forecasts by +12.3%/+13.1% to HKD 0.73/0.83, and an increase in 2025/2026e BVPS by +16.5%/+16.3% to HKD 15.23/16.06, resulting in a target price increase of 9.5% to HKD 23, corresponding to 1.4x 2025e P/B and a potential upside of 22.5% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H25, ZhongAn Online reported total premium income growth of +9% year-on-year, with a combined cost ratio (CoR) improvement of -2.3ppt to 95.6%, driven by better-than-expected performance in health and consumer finance underwriting; net profit attributable to shareholders surged +1103.5% to RMB 668 million, exceeding expectations due to underwriting profitability and improved performance from ZhongAn Bank [2] - The underwriting performance showed significant improvement, with 1H25 premium income from ZhongAn Property & Casualty Insurance increasing +9% to RMB 16.66 billion, primarily driven by health (+38%) and auto (+34%) ecosystems, alongside a notable recovery in consumer finance (+24%); CoR improved by 2.3ppt to 95.6%, with underwriting profit growing +109% to RMB 656 million [3] Group 2: Business Segments - The technology business reduced losses, and the virtual bank turned profitable, with total revenue from technology output in 1H25 reaching RMB 496 million, a year-on-year increase of +12.2%; ZA Bank's net income grew +82.1% year-on-year to HKD 457 million, with a cost-to-income ratio improving by 52ppt to 67%, achieving a net profit of HKD 49 million; the company is advised to monitor developments related to stablecoins in Hong Kong and their potential positive impact on ZhongAn Bank's future financial performance [4] - Investment performance remained stable, with net and total investment yields for domestic insurance at 2.1% and 3.3%, respectively; improvements in foreign exchange gains and financial expenses contributed to a net profit increase of +1103.5% to RMB 668 million in 1H25, surpassing expectations [5] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The company is optimistic about the long-term development opportunities in the health insurance sector, driven by product innovation and operational capabilities amid healthcare reform; the company expects its auto insurance segment to achieve both profitability and scale growth, supported by regulatory controls on auto insurance pricing and trends in new energy and internet auto insurance [6]

Core Viewpoint - ZTE Corporation's A-shares hit the daily limit while H-shares surged over 13% in early trading, indicating strong market interest and positive sentiment towards the company [3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ZTE Corporation's A-shares experienced a rapid increase, reaching a daily limit of 9.99% with a price of CNY 43.93 [4]. - H-shares of ZTE also saw a significant rise, increasing by 14.33% [4]. - The overall trading volume for ZTE's A-shares was reported at 118.33 million, with a turnover rate of 2.94% [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The A-share market opened with all three major indices showing positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12% [7]. - The Hong Kong market also opened positively, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.2% [9]. - Digital currency concept stocks saw substantial gains, with companies like New Morning Technology hitting the daily limit of 20% [5].

Group 1 - The three major indices opened higher on August 21, with stablecoins and digital currency concepts leading the gains, and the financial technology index showing significant movement [1] - The financial technology ETF Huaxia (516100) experienced a strong performance, rising by 1.5%, with its holdings in stablecoin-related stocks such as Xinchen Technology hitting the daily limit up [1] - Over the past three days, the financial technology ETF Huaxia (516100) has seen a cumulative net subscription amount of 153.93 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The financial technology ETF Huaxia (516100) closely tracks the CSI Financial Technology Theme Index, covering software development, internet finance, and the digital currency industry chain [2] - The ETF includes major stocks such as Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, Runhe Software, and Hengsheng Electronics, as well as popular stablecoin stocks, with a stablecoin content of 22.59%, ranking first in the market [2] - This ETF allows investors to easily access popular concepts such as stablecoins, digital currencies, and cross-border payments [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the active performance of stablecoin-related stocks, with several companies experiencing significant price increases, indicating a growing interest in the stablecoin market [1] - Goldman Sachs reports a new expansion cycle in the stablecoin market, with potential market size reaching trillions of dollars, emphasizing that the payment sector will be a key driver for the total addressable market (TAM) of stablecoins [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports the advancement of technology and innovation in digital assets and AI to modernize the U.S. payment system and stimulate economic growth, coinciding with the Fed's mention of stablecoins in its July monetary policy meeting minutes [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes discuss the recent and future developments of payment stablecoins and their potential impact on the financial system, noting that the passage of the GENIUS Act may increase the use of payment stablecoins [2] - Participants in the Fed meeting expressed that payment stablecoins could enhance the efficiency of the payment system and potentially increase demand for the underlying assets, including U.S. Treasury securities [2] - Concerns were raised regarding the broader implications of stablecoins on banks, the financial system, and monetary policy implementation, highlighting the need for close monitoring of the assets backing stablecoins [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range; silver is likely to decline slightly [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driver, and its price will oscillate [2][11]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][14]. - The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price [2][17]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][20]. - Aluminum will trade in a high - level range; alumina will rise slightly in a sideways movement; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel will have a narrow - range oscillation based on fundamental logic, and investors should be wary of news - related risks; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99%. For silver,沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, and Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48%. The trading volumes and open interests of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of ETFs, domestic and foreign exchanges showed different trends, such as a decrease in SPDR黄金ETF持仓 by 4 and an increase in Comex白银库存 by 600,232 ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook; Fed's potential payment innovation with the industry; China's August LPR remained unchanged [5][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1; silver trend intensity is - 1 [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.30% during the day and increased by 0.13% at night; the closing price of伦铜3M电子盘 increased by 0.38%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪铜 decreased by 275 tons, and that of伦铜 increased by 1,200 tons. Various spreads such as LME铜升贴水 and现货 - to - futures spreads also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged; PT Smelting's maintenance was extended; Codelco's smelter restarted; Glencore applied for investment incentives; China's July copper imports data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪锌主力 increased by 0.27%, and that of伦锌3M电子盘 decreased by 0.50%. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various spreads also changed [14]. - **News**: The US PPI reached 3.3%, and the growth rate of M2 was approaching 5%, which might lead to inflation [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪铅主力 decreased by 0.59%, and that of伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 0.33%. The inventory of沪铅 and伦铅 decreased, and other data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 decreased by 0.09% during the day and 0.23% at night; the closing price of伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪锡 decreased by 184 tons, and that of伦锡 increased by 85 tons. Various spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed's meeting minutes, Trump's pressure on the Fed, etc. [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Related Data**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME铝3M prices changed; for alumina,沪氧化铝主力 price changed. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, and enterprise profits also changed [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August LPR remained unchanged; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Industry Chain Data**: The closing prices of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力 changed. Various data in the industrial chain such as import profit, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including potential export suspension, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension; a steel mill in Shandong reduced production [28][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [33].

#行情 周二稳定币概念个股走强，欧科云链、众安在线涨9%，新火科技控股、国泰君安国际涨超7%。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):路透：中国正考虑首次允许使用人民币支持的稳定币，以促进人民币在全球范围内的更广泛采用。国务院将于8月晚些时候审查并可能批准一项路线图，预计将包括人民币在全球市场上的使用目标，并概述国内监管机构的职责，以及包括风险预防指南。 https://t.co/tDSrdABpwp ...