Group 1: Economic and Financial Strategy - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session approved the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," outlining systematic planning and strategic deployment for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year period [1] - The article emphasizes the integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, and expanding high-level opening-up [1][2] Group 2: Financial System Improvement - The article by Wang Jiang highlights seven key tasks for building a strong financial nation, including improving the central bank system and promoting healthy capital market development [2][3] - It stresses the need for financial institutions to focus on their main businesses and enhance governance, while also supporting state-owned financial institutions in serving the real economy [3][4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Management - The People's Bank of China aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework to support high-quality financial development [6][7] - The article outlines the importance of adjusting monetary policy to match economic growth and price stability, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to short-term and long-term economic goals [7][8] Group 4: International Financial Center Development - The article discusses the continuous development of various financial markets in Shanghai to enhance its global competitiveness and influence [4][5] - It calls for strengthening the cross-border payment and clearing system for the Renminbi and expanding institutional openness in the financial sector [4] Group 5: Trade and Investment Expansion - The article by Wang Wentao emphasizes the significance of expanding high-level opening-up, including promoting trade innovation and enhancing the quality of foreign trade [10][11] - It outlines tasks such as increasing market access in service sectors and optimizing the free trade zone strategy to boost innovation and development [11][12] Group 6: Real Estate Market Development - The article by Ni Hong focuses on promoting sustainable and healthy development in the real estate market through reforms in development, financing, and sales systems [14][15] - It highlights the need for a multi-level housing security system and emphasizes the importance of local governments in adjusting real estate policies based on specific city conditions [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, including interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction, signal a significant shift in global monetary policy dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the total reduction for the year to 0.5% [4]. - There is a market expectation for another similar rate cut in December, although the probability has slightly decreased [4]. - The Fed's decision to stop "balance sheet reduction" marks a transition from actively withdrawing liquidity to a potential resumption of balance sheet expansion [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The cessation of balance sheet reduction is seen as a positive development for the Chinese economy, which is currently facing downward pressure [9]. - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between the U.S. and China may provide the Chinese central bank with more room for rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [9]. - The adjustments in U.S. monetary policy are expected to trigger a series of reactions globally, affecting capital flows and exchange rates [9]. Group 3: Government Influence - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly due to past interventions by the Trump administration [7]. - The administration's attempts to influence Fed policy could complicate the central bank's decision-making process and its ability to respond to economic conditions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Harker, expressed an open attitude towards reforming the interest rate targets used in monetary policy, indicating a shift from the traditional federal funds rate to other interest rate indicators [1] Group 1 - Harker highlighted that the structure of the money market has undergone profound changes, suggesting a need to explore optimal implementations of monetary policy [1] - This statement aligns with a recent consensus formed with Dallas Fed President Logan, indicating that financial market pricing mechanisms are gradually detaching from the traditional anchoring effect of the federal funds rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding oppose the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates this week, citing persistent high inflation as the main reason [1][2]. Group 1: Statements from Fed Officials - Logan stated that there is no need to lower interest rates this week, emphasizing that unless there is clear evidence of inflation decreasing faster than expected, it is difficult to consider another rate cut in December [2][3]. - Schmieding expressed concerns that economic growth and investment could exacerbate inflationary pressures, noting that the labor market is essentially balanced and inflation remains high [3][4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking the second cut in two months, aimed at supporting a slowing labor market [3][4]. - Recent data from the Labor Department indicated that the annual consumer price index rose by 3% as of September, with inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target for over four years [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Policy Implications - Logan supports the decision to halt the reduction of the balance sheet, suggesting that current market conditions indicate the balance sheet is nearing normal levels [2][3]. - Schmieding warned that a 25 basis point cut may have limited effects on alleviating labor market pressures, which are more likely driven by structural changes rather than monetary policy [4].

美国劳工部本月早些时候报告称，截至9月的一年里，消费者价格上涨3%，而通胀已连续四年多高于美 联储2%的目标。施密德重申，他所在地区的企业对持续的成本上升表示担忧，货币政策应当对需求增 长保持一定的抑制。 施密德说："我认为，将利率下调25个基点并不会对缓解劳动力市场压力产生多大作用，这些压力更可 能源于技术和人口结构的变化。然而，如果市场质疑美联储对2%通胀目标的承诺，降息可能会对通胀 产生更持久的影响。" 他还表示，目前货币政策仅是温和限制性的，金融市场条件依然宽松。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京10月31日电美国堪萨斯城联储主席施密德表示，他在本周投票反对美联储降息的决定，原 因是担心经济增长和投资会对通胀形成上行压力。 施密德说："依我判断，劳动力市场总体上处于平衡，经济展现出持续动能，而通胀依然过高。" ...

Core Insights - Eurozone inflation has slightly decreased to 2.1% in October from 2.2% in September, still above the 2% target, indicating persistent price stickiness, particularly in the services sector [1][3] - Core inflation remains unchanged at 2.4%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.3%, highlighting ongoing concerns about underlying price pressures [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates at 2% for the third consecutive meeting, with President Lagarde noting that the assessment of inflation prospects has not significantly changed, although uncertainties remain high [3] Inflation Trends - The decline in overall inflation is attributed to a slowdown in food price increases and a notable decrease in industrial goods prices, which offset a slight acceleration in service prices [1] - France's inflation rate for October is reported at 0.9%, down from 1.1% in September, driven by a 5.6% drop in energy prices, while food price growth has slowed from 1.7% to 1.3% [4] - Germany's inflation rate for October stands at 2.3%, continuing to exceed the ECB's target, indicating persistent price pressures in the Eurozone's largest economy [5] Divergence Among Member States - There is significant divergence in inflation levels among Eurozone member states, with France consistently below the ECB's target for over a year, while Germany remains above the target [4][5] - The ECB's upcoming quarterly forecast in December will include projections for 2028, potentially reigniting discussions on the need for further monetary policy easing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the three key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time since July, indicating a stable monetary policy environment in the Eurozone [1][3]. Economic Conditions - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the Eurozone is in a "good position" from a monetary policy perspective, primarily due to the current inflation rate around 2%, which is considered manageable [4]. - The Eurozone's economic growth is characterized by weak growth, with no signs of recession or significant recovery [4]. - The ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged is also influenced by external factors such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts and trade pressures from the U.S. [4][9]. Trade and Geopolitical Impact - The Eurozone economy is significantly affected by ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. imposing tariffs of 15% on the EU and additional tariffs of 25% to 50% on various sectors [6][7]. - The Ukraine crisis continues to impact the Eurozone, with no viable solutions currently in sight [7]. - The Eurozone's response to trade and geopolitical conflicts is limited, with insufficient countermeasures against U.S. tariffs and a reliance on U.S. support for military aid to Ukraine [7]. Policy Divergence with the U.S. - The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve is notable, with the Fed cutting rates to address economic uncertainties and high tariffs, while the ECB maintains its rates due to stable inflation [9][10]. - The U.S. inflation rate is higher than the ECB's target, with the U.S. CPI rising by 3% year-on-year, indicating different economic pressures faced by the two regions [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity into the market, significantly boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in the new round of Sino-US trade consultations has significantly alleviated the market's concerns about trade policy uncertainties. Looking ahead, the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals and the implementation of broad fiscal policies still require a low-interest rate environment. The market generally expects the central bank to focus on medium- and short-term bond purchases, which may lead to a continued decline in short-term interest rates and potentially drive down long-term interest rates. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the potential suppression of long-term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2512, T2512, TF2512, TS2512) rose by 1.45%, 0.62%, 0.43%, and 0.21% respectively. The trading volumes were 594,400, 377,500, 330,800, and 190,300 contracts respectively. The prices of the top two CTD bonds of each contract also increased [13]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: The main contracts of 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures all rose this week. The trading volumes and open interests of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased [16][22][30]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News Review**: The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, resume open-market Treasury bond trading, and study various policy measures. Five departments issued a plan to promote the improvement of urban commerce. The results of the Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, with the US canceling a 10% tariff and suspending some measures. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate 50 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit. Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end balance sheet reduction in December [33][34]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The spreads between 10-year and 5-year, 10-year and 1-year Treasury bond yields widened. The spreads between the main contracts of 2-year and 5-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened. The inter - period spreads of 10-year, 30-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures narrowed [40][49][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract increased significantly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: The 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates declined, while the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates rose. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded slightly. The yields of Treasury bond cash bonds strengthened, with the 1 - 7Y yields falling by about 5 - 11bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields falling by about 5 and 6bp to 1.79% and 2.15% respectively. The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields widened slightly [69][74]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 206.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 90 billion yuan in MLF injections, with 70 billion yuan in MLF maturities and 86.72 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net injection of 140.08 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded slightly [79]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 114.2609 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 77.9563 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 36.3046 billion yuan [83]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0880, up 48 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield fluctuated upward, and the VIX index remained stable. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [87][93][98]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic and Overseas Fundamentals**: In China, the manufacturing PMI declined in October, while the non - manufacturing PMI entered the expansion range. The GDP growth rate was stable but slowed down. The economy shows a pattern of "strong production, weak demand" and "strong external demand, weak domestic demand". In the US, inflation was lower than expected, the labor market recovered moderately, the Fed cut interest rates, and the end of balance sheet reduction was announced [101]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, considering the potential decline in short - term interest rates and the need for a low - interest rate environment, while being vigilant about the potential suppression of long - term interest rates by the recovery of risk appetite [102].

新华财经北京10月31日电美国财政部长贝森特于当地时间10月30日接受媒体采访时，对美联储最新货币 政策决定作出回应。他一方面认可美联储于10月30日宣布的25个基点降息举措，另一方面严厉批评其政 策声明中体现出的"固步自封的思维模式"，并呼吁对美联储体制机制进行彻底改革。 值得注意的是，特朗普政府对鲍威尔的批评由来已久。在10月29日于东京与商界领袖的会晤中，特朗普 再度公开指责鲍威尔"庸碌无能"。 根据贝森特10月28日披露的信息，目前已有5位候选人进入美联储主席继任最终名单，包括：白宫经济 顾问凯文·哈西特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什、现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、美联储监管副主席米歇 尔·鲍曼，以及贝莱德高管里克·里德。 分析人士指出，若美联储主席人选更替进程加速，可能对2026年货币政策路径及全球金融市场预期产生 深远影响。然而，新任主席的最终任命仍需经过法定程序，具体时间表及人选尚待官方确认。 贝森特指出，美联储今年以来对通胀和国内生产总值（GDP）的预测"一直存在错误"，其分析模型"已 形同虚设"。他特别质疑美联储在降息决定后释放出"12月会议可能不再降息"的信号，称无法理解该立 场背后的逻辑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to resume the trading of government bonds after a 10-month suspension, indicating a positive shift in the bond market and a need for liquidity support [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Resuming Bond Trading - The resumption is attributed to a phase of alleviated interest rate risks in the bond market and the necessity to provide liquidity support [3]. - The initial suspension in January was due to overly optimistic market sentiment and rapid declines in government bond yields, which increased interest rate risks and widened the China-U.S. interest rate differential [3]. - Since July, a shift in risk appetite has led to capital outflows from the bond market, causing a rapid increase in the 10-year government bond yield from 1.6% to over 1.8%, stabilizing around this level for a month [3]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and a narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential, has created a favorable context for the PBOC to restart bond trading [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The resumption of bond trading signals a defined upper limit for bond yields, suggesting limited room for further increases in the 10-year government bond yield [4]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at enhancing the financial function of government bonds and improving the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [4]. - The recent rise in short-term bond yields has led to a narrowing of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, indicating a potential steepening of the yield curve [4]. - In the short term, the PBOC's bond purchases may focus on the shorter end of the yield curve, with the long end requiring further observation of the scale of bond purchases and equity market performance [4].