北京一家银行分析师在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，这一表述变化是货币政策根据经济金融形 势作出的精准调整，标志着融资成本调控目标由"持续下行"转向"巩固既有成效"。 从现实情况看，我国社会融资成本已处于历史较低水平。有关数据显示，11月份企业新发放贷款（本外 币）加权平均利率为3.1%，较上年同期下降约30个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利 率为3.1%，较上年同期下降约3个基点。 上述银行分析师进一步指出，此次表述变化既是对前期降成本政策成效的肯定，也体现了政策取向的稳 健性。其核心在于通过维持融资成本低位运行，稳定市场预期、减轻经营主体负担，同时避免过度宽松 带来潜在风险。这也意味着，后续政策将更加侧重于完善利率传导机制、降低非利息成本等方式，巩固 降成本成果，而非单纯追求利率的绝对下行。 苏商银行特约研究员武泽伟也对记者表示，社会综合融资成本已处于相对合意的较低区间，当前的关键 在于防止其出现不必要的反弹，保持金融环境对实体经济的支持力度稳定。这体现了货币政策在稳增长 与防风险之间寻求平衡的精准性与灵活性。 会议还研究了下一阶段货币政策的主要思路，提出要发挥增量政策与存量政策的集成效应， ...

1、从央行会议中，看四个关键政策动向 今天国内A股市场总体盘面变化不大，三大指数小幅上行。虽然在过去一周左右市场持续回暖的过程 中，个人投资者的热情有所恢复，但大资金——也就是机构资金——加仓的迹象并不明显，市场的谨慎 情绪尚未完全消除。在年底这个微妙的时间点，我们仍需从政策等关键影响因素中寻找线索。 2、年底仍需紧抓政策暖风赛道 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信：miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、从央行会议中，看四个关键政策动向； 今天一个非常值得关注的政策信号来自央行。央行于昨天召开了货币政策委员会2025年第四季度例会。 该会议每季度召开一次，对下一个季度（即未来三个月）的货币政策具有重要指引作用。会议结束后发 布的新闻稿看点颇多，可以说是近几个季度以来变化最大的一份例会文稿。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 第一个重要变化是关于人民币汇 ...

截至2025年12月21日，中泰资管风险系统对股债市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为54.89，较上月52.77略有回升。市场整体风险偏好维持温和修复态 势，多维度指标分化持续缓和。 沪深300估值较上月小幅回升（本月61.54，上月60.68），仍处于近半年以来的中高位区间。行业间估值分 化依然持续，28个申万一级行业中，钢铁、电子、房地产、商业贸易、综合、国防军工、计算机、通信、 汽车、机械设备等行业估值仍高于历史60%分位数；仅农林牧渔和非银金融板块估值持续低于历史10%分 位数。 市场预期分数较上月略有回落（本月50.00，上月52.00）。分析师认为11月外需保持韧性，内需显著放 缓，生产相对稳定。消费复苏力度不及预期，工业生产边际改善但持续性待观察。财政政策支持对基建投 资的推动作用尚未明显体现。12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议（以下简称"会议"）在北京召开，在财 政政策方面，会议指出"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策"，并要求"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和 支出总量"。财政增量政策仍然值得期待。 市场情绪较上月持续回升（本月50.69，上月45.24；分数越低 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 25 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：多头排列震荡上行 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：资金面延续偏松 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应整体宽松 | 盘面持续承压 7 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续上涨 | 国内糖价跟随 7 | | 油脂板块：油脂技术性反弹 9 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 生猪：供应仍有压力 | 现货整体震荡 11 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面偏弱震荡 11 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价有所回落 12 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 13 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 14 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 15 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，震荡运行 15 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 16 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 17 | | 金银：初请数据叠加节前获利了结，金银高位冲高回落 18 | | --- | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].

国债期货日报 2025/12/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.195 | -0.02% T主力成交量 | 56411 | -12732↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.990 | -0.03% TF主力成交量 | 49022 | -5686↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.510 | -0.02% TS主力成交量 | 30026 | 3525↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.510 | -0.24% TL主力成交量 | 95007 | -15756↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.22 | +0.00↑ T03-TL03价差 | -4.32 | 0.29↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.02 | -0.02↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.21 | 0.00↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.01 | -0.00↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5 ...

新华网北京12月25日电（刘睿祎 梁栋飞）近期，人民币兑美元汇率不断走强。12月25日，离岸人民币 对美元升破7.0整数关口，截至发稿时，达6.9978；在岸人民币对美元也探至7.0133。另外，中国外汇交 易中心12月25日受权公布人民币对美元的市场汇价，即人民币对美元市场中间价为7.0392，上调79个基 点。 他表示，美联储降息将继续主导美元指数走势。尽管明年美联储降息节奏需视美国经济后续走势而定， 但在新任美联储主席有可能态度偏"鸽"、更偏向用货币政策来保增长的情况下，降息幅度或超过今年9 月的点阵图预测。 "从2019年和2024年经验来看，美元指数在降息兑现后，均有所反弹，但在数月后转向下行。若以此类 推，特别是再考虑到美联储的降息空间或明显大于其他非美央行，美元指数的下行趋势或大致于明年一 季度或二季度正式开启。同时，美国经济仍领跑主要发达经济体，对于美元有支撑。"温彬说。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟认为，10月中旬以来，人民币经历了一波快速升值，但结汇率并没有显 著走高。其团队研报分析称，10月至11月，在"三价合一"的背景下，央行重启逆周期因子、不断调升的 中间价对升值有一定引导。而12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "2026 Year Outlook" event hosted by Ningbo Bank, focusing on macroeconomic trends and investment strategies for the new year, addressing key questions regarding monetary policy, fiscal policy, currency trends, export performance, and market conditions for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "2026 Year Outlook" event will take place on December 27, featuring discussions on macroeconomic conditions and asset strategies for 2026 [1]. - The event will include insights from four senior experts at Ningbo Bank, including the Vice President and heads of various departments [1]. Group 2: Agenda Highlights - The event will feature a series of presentations, including: - Macroeconomic and capital market outlook for 2026 by Zhou Yanchang, Chief Strategy Analyst [4]. - Bond market outlook for 2026 by Chai Feibin, General Manager of the Investment Banking Department [4]. - RMB exchange rate outlook for 2026 by Wang Dandan, Vice President [4]. - Outlook for commodities and precious metals market for 2026 by Qiu Difan, General Manager of the Research Department [4]. Group 3: Live Broadcast Information - The event will be live-streamed on Ningbo Bank's corporate finance video account and wealth management Douyin account, with coverage from multiple mainstream media outlets [6].

Economic News - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation issues a plan for the special governance of the quality and safety of industrial products sold online from 2025 to 2027 [2] - In November, China's total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries seeing a 6.7% increase [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announces increased policy support for foreign trade innovation and development [2] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry firmly opposes the U.S. plans to impose tariffs on China's semiconductor industry starting in 2027 [2] - Beijing's housing authorities relax home purchase conditions for non-local families and support housing needs for families with multiple children [2] Company News - Springlight Technology receives OEM/ODM orders for "W1" and "M1" robot products from Lexiang Technology, amounting to 43.2628 million yuan [3] - Wankai New Materials' subsidiary, Qing Magnesium Smart Plastic, signs a procurement contract with Lingxin Qiaoshou for lightweight components and assembly services, totaling 10 million yuan [3] - Nanshan Aluminum establishes a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hainan with an investment of 5 million yuan to expand high-end aluminum product development and trade [3] - Sunshine Nuohuo signs a technology development contract with Zhejiang Xinghao, with a total payment of 500 million yuan, including an 8% sales share [5] - Jiaheng Home Products' controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of trading [5] Industry Research Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - The Ministry of Commerce announces anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports, effective from December 17, 2025, with rates ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% [6] - EU pork imports account for 51% of China's total pork imports, but only 2.03% of total consumption, indicating a limited impact on overall supply [7] - The anti-dumping duties are expected to increase the cost of EU pork imports, leading to a decrease in import volumes and a diversification of import sources [7] - Despite the anti-dumping measures, domestic supply and demand dynamics will continue to influence pork prices, with an oversupply expected to persist [8] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming industry, such as Muyuan Foods, as the market dynamics improve [8] Food and Beverage - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiates temporary anti-subsidy measures on EU dairy products, with preliminary subsidy rates between 28.6% and 42.7% [10][11] - The affected dairy products include cream and cheese, which have significantly impacted domestic producers' profitability [12] - The average price of fresh milk in China remains low at 3.03 yuan/kg, putting pressure on dairy companies [13] - The anti-subsidy measures are expected to create market opportunities for domestic dairy processing companies, benefiting firms like Lihai and Miao Ke Landuo [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent increase in gold prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and the growing interest in gold ETFs as a means for investors to gain exposure to the gold market [2] - Gold ETF scales are rapidly expanding, with several products experiencing significant daily inflows, indicating a strong alignment between capital allocation behavior and market trends [2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to the monetary policies of major central banks, particularly the US and Japan, which have led to a general uptrend in asset prices, including precious metals [2] Group 2 - Despite a recent pullback in gold prices, both Shanghai gold and New York gold remain above key psychological levels, indicating resilience in the market [2] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by increased uncertainty and pressure from US Treasury supply, is contributing to the attractiveness of gold as a low-barrier, liquid investment option [2] - The market may experience cautious behavior domestically due to the lack of international market guidance during the upcoming holiday period, potentially leading to high-level fluctuations in gold prices [2]