前面的制造危机、施压美联储，都是为了把黄金炒上去，现在选一个鹰派人物，就是为了收割。 期货公司观点 有没有感觉被特朗普算计了。 黄金这一波是谁炒起来的？是特朗普。 特朗普攻打委内瑞拉，利用格陵兰岛施压欧洲，叫嚣攻打伊朗，另外，还对美联储指手画脚，对美联储 主席鲍威尔持续施压，要求进行降息，对美联储官员起诉，一个劲的要安插自己人进入美联储。 种种的一切，都让黄金大涨，不夸张的说，全球都被特朗普钓成了翘嘴。 结果现在180度大转弯，特朗普把大家都忽悠了。在大家预测特朗普的下一任美联储人选将会执行他的 降息要求，保持低利率政策的时候，特朗普选了一个鹰派人物上台，告诉你们，我摊牌了，不装了，等 于告诉大家，以后不这么降息了，货币政策要改了。 广发期货： 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通在1月30日发布的研报中对凯文·沃什获提名担任下一任美联储主席一事进 行了深度剖析。报告指出，这位曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事的官员，在金融危机后的岁月里 常显露鹰派本色，然而近期言论却明显转向鸽派，恰好与现任政府的货币政策偏好同频共振。这种立场 转换引发了一个关键疑问：沃什的真实政策倾向究竟如何，而这种倾向又能在多长时间内保持不变?小 摩的分析师认为，今年的沃什很可能会为降息政策据理力争，但随着时间推移，特别是在中期选举结 束、政府进入跛脚鸭阶段后，他的立场存在重新回归鹰派的风险，届时其政策取向可能面临重大调整。 然而，来自北卡罗来纳州的参议员蒂利斯已经明确表示，在针对鲍威尔的刑事调查结束之前，他将反对 确认任何美联储提名人，而参议院多数党领袖图恩也承认，没有蒂利斯的支持，相关程序难以推进。 这种政治僵局可能导致一个意外结果：鲍威尔可能以临时主席的身份在五月之后继续留任，这种情况虽 然尴尬，但反而为政府解决针对鲍威尔的调查、并最终在几周后确认沃什的提名提供了充分的政治动 力。 在货币政策展望方面，摩根大通维持其既有判断，即美联储将在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变。报告强 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the volatile pattern and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend. The current market has both long and short factors. On one hand, institutional allocation demand and the risk - hedging property of RMB assets support the market, especially for ultra - long - term varieties. On the other hand, stock market performance, policy expectations, and changes in supply - demand relations will jointly affect market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, the bond market trend depends on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the subsequent direction of monetary policy. If economic data such as inflation continues to pick up and more regions are able to expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed differentiation between long and short ends. The ultra - long - end center slowly declined with the TL main contract down 0.34% for the week, the 10 - year main contract steadily rose slightly with a weekly gain of about 0.11%, and the medium - and short - term maturities changed little. Market fluctuations were mainly in equities and commodities. The turning point of risk assets on Friday was due to factors like the Iranian situation, new Fed candidates, US policy shutdown risk, and risks in the US stock market during the earnings season. Domestic bonds were less affected by other major asset classes. The central bank continuously released liquidity through reverse repurchase, with a total of 176.15 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations for the week, achieving a net injection after offsetting maturities. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and the weighted average DR007 rate fluctuated around the policy rate, keeping the funds reasonably abundant. The marginal weakness of the ultra - long end might be due to some long - position funds taking profits at the beginning of the week, causing the TL2603 contract to correct. However, the long - term allocation demand from the "good start" dividend - insurance sales of insurance institutions and the inflow of foreign risk - hedging funds supported the price to stabilize around 112 yuan [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - based pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rate, bond - pledged repurchase rate, R007&DR007 spread and trading volume, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, excess reserve ratio, LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads. But there is no specific text summary of these data [8][9][11] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The content shows various indicators of Treasury bond futures arbitrage, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts in the current quarter. But there is no specific text analysis of these indicators [38][41][48]

上周2025年工业企业利润数据和2026年1月PMI数据公布。上周二（1月27日）国家统计局公布2025年全 国规模以上工业企业数据，其中规模以上工业企业实现营业收入139.20万亿元，比上年增长1.1%，略低 于2024年的2.1%；全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982.0亿元，比上年增长0.6%，显著高于2024 年的-3.3%。整体来看，工业企业利润同比增速结束连续3年的负增长小幅转正，主要受益于出口偏 强、"反内卷"政策等对利润率的拉动；结构上看，高技术制造业和有色金属行业是全年利润增长的主要 支撑。 上周六（1月31日）国家统计局公布2026年1月PMI数据，其中制造业PMI49.3%，低于前值50.1%；非制 造业PMI49.4%，低于前值50.2%。总体上看，1月制造业景气水平受生产和订单拖累有所回落，价格指 数则双双回升。 上周美联储举行了年内首次联邦公开市场委员会会议。会议指出经济活动正以稳健的速度扩张，就业增 长依然低迷而失业率也显示出一些稳定的迹象，通胀仍略高，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%~3.75%不变。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示当前货币政策并非明显偏紧，下一步行动不 ...

Core Insights - The recent volatility in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has been extreme, with gold reaching a peak of $5,598 before dropping below $4,700, indicating fierce market contention between bulls and bears [1][2] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has triggered significant market reactions, with traders interpreting his stance on monetary policy as potentially hawkish despite his previous support for rate cuts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military interventions and tensions with Iran, have been key drivers for the rise in gold and silver prices, as they heighten market risk aversion [5][6] Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a dramatic fluctuation, with a drop of 3.3% on Monday, followed by a recovery that narrowed the loss to around 1%, but later expanded to a 4.3% decline [1] - Silver prices were even more volatile, initially plummeting over 10% to below $75 per ounce before rebounding to above $87, only to fall again by over 4% [1] - The stock market also reflected this panic, with numerous gold-related stocks in both A-shares and Hong Kong shares experiencing significant declines [1] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and contributing to a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, which negatively impacted gold prices [3] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a crucial catalyst for market direction, with weak employment data potentially reversing the trend of a strong dollar and reigniting gold buying [3] Geopolitical Factors - The increase in geopolitical tensions, such as U.S. military actions in Venezuela and warnings regarding Iran, has significantly influenced market sentiment and the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [5][6] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear agreements may continue to affect precious metal prices as developments unfold [5] Physical Demand - Despite market volatility, physical demand for gold remains strong, particularly in India, where premiums surged to $121 per ounce ahead of the federal budget announcement [6] - The approaching Lunar New Year in China is expected to boost demand for gold jewelry and investment, maintaining high premiums in the market [7]

·特朗普提名沃什执掌美联储 ·美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%~3.75%不变 ·加拿大央行维持2.25%基准利率不变 ·巴西央行维持基准利率在15%不变 ·韩元过度贬值引警报央行呼吁加强外汇对冲 ·阿联酋央行批准全球首个央行监管稳定币 【全球央行动态】 ·特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什接替鲍威尔出任下任美联储主席。该提名需参议院批准，但民 主党领袖舒默与共和党参议员蒂利斯已明确表示，除非撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则将联手阻止沃什上 任。 ·美联储将基准利率维持在3.50%~3.75%不变，结束自去年9月以来的连续三次降息。尽管符合市场预 期，但政策声明透露出内部意见分化：理事米兰和沃勒投下反对票，主张降息25个基点。 ·新加坡金管局称，政策区间宽度及其中心水平保持不变。 ·香港金管局将基准利率维持在4.0%不变，称美国未来息率走向仍存在不确定性，对香港的利率环境亦 会有所影响。 ·加纳央行将关键利率下调250个基点至15.50%。加纳央行行长称，加纳央行已出售部分黄金储备以获取 外汇。 ·乌拉圭央行降息100个基点至6.50%。 ·韩国央行行长李昌镛警告，韩元贬值已远超合理区间，恐推高通胀压力。他敦促国民 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 铂把数据日报 国贸期货研究院 贵金属与新能源研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0013700 从业资格号:F3023916 注:因收盘时间不一致,铂、兜库存及持仓数据部分滞后。 1月30日，铭、纽价格整体大幅下挫：PT2606合约收跌11.79%至630.55元/克:PD2606合约收跌11.87%至46405元/克。此外，上周五 夜盘,外盘铂把价格继续大幅下跌,伦敦现货锐金盘中暴跌超24%,终根收2180.8美元/盎司,目内跌16.72%;伦敦现货投盘盘中暴跌超 20%，终损收771.美元/盎司。日内映14.69%。宏观层面，特朗普提名近什出任新美联随主席，国其相较于其它候选人更加鹰派,市场普 遍预期其不会采取大规模范松货币政策，同时派什的提名也缓解了市场对美联情独立世丧失的担忧，提振美元指数、美债收益率大幅 走强,加上资金的大规模流出,贵金属市场出现恐慌性抛售并发生了"踩踏式"下跌，钳、史亦不例外跟随暴跌。基本面方面,暂未 有较大变化,美国决定督援对关键矿产加征进口关税,缓解的、把的关税风险,未来需关注组织库存是否流出,若确认,可能会对其 上行空间炮成压制。综上。基于 ...

这一走势并非单一因素推动，而是政策预期、人事变动讨论与宏观数据预期共同作用的结果。 凯文·沃什被提名为美联储主席后，市场开始重新审视未来政策风格。从既有公开观点来看，将其简单归为"鹰派"并不完 全准确，更合理的解读是其强调政策克制与节奏管理。文章提到，他可能支持相对谨慎的降息路径，这意味着在通胀压 力未被充分确认缓解之前，货币政策难以快速转向宽松。这种立场并不指向进一步收紧，而是强调在高不确定环境下保 持政策稳定性。 资产负债表问题同样成为市场关注重点。若未来推动缩减资产负债表规模，意味着流动性环境可能逐步收敛。即便基准 利率保持不变，缩表本身也会对市场资金面产生影响。在当前利率处于高位区间的情况下，任何与流动性收紧相关的信 号，都会放大市场对融资成本和资产估值的敏感度，进而体现在长期利率水平的抬升上。 从政策制定层面看，美联储内部对宽松节奏的看法并未完全统一。尽管交易层面仍预期年内存在两次降息空间，但具体 时点和幅度仍存在明显分歧。这种分歧并非决策迟缓，而是源于现实经济信号的多重指向。通胀虽有回落迹象，但核心 指标仍处高位；经济增速放缓预期存在，但尚未形成一致确认。 就业数据的公布因此成为市场短期定价的重要 ...

红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭认为，上周五晚间国际金银价格出现大幅下挫，这一走势可能标志着剧烈波动 行情的开端，意味着短期内市场尚未迎来中长线资金买入的理想时机。回顾此轮上涨行情末段，主要驱 动因素在于国际黄金、白银现货市场出现流动性枯竭迹象，以及实物金银交割的紧迫性日益凸显，这吸 引了大量短期热钱进行投机性买入，部分持有结构性产品的投资机构被迫补仓，进一步推升贵金属价格 至历史高位。然而，由上述因素支撑的上涨逻辑基础较为脆弱，市场趋势极易发生突发性逆转，行情从 螺旋式买入上涨迅速转变为螺旋式卖出下跌，短期市场波动风险及潜在幅度均显著放大。 李泽铭预计，短期金价可能围绕每盎司5000美元中枢上下波动，在1000美元区间内，虽然近期波动幅度 比股市更大，目前看驱动黄金的因素依然是避险需求，避险属性本质依然没有改变，中长期上涨的逻辑 依然存在，而金矿股是更高风险偏好投资者的选择。 一位广州私募基金经理认为，黄金传统上被视为重要避险资产，但在当前极端波动行情下已经有风险资 产特征，中长期投资逻辑依然存在，等波动幅度降低后，建议投资者优先考虑配置稳健型黄金ETF产 品，而非经营状况及业绩表现难以准确预测的金矿类股票。此外，另 ...

| | 20260202申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击奉 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | IL I | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9 H | | | | | | | | | 前1日收盘价 1405.5 1232.5 1874. 0 1787.0 | | 1155. 5 | | | 1721.5 | | | | 前2日收盘价 1419.5 | | 1165.0 | 1242.5 | 1876.5 | 1723.0 | 1791.5 | | EH | 煮蛋 -14.0 | | -9.5 | -10.0 | -2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | | स्त | 楽跌幅 -0. 99% | | -0. 82% | -0. 80% | -0.13% ...