Group 1 - The silver market has reached a critical level with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hitting 93.86, the highest since January 1980, indicating an overheated market [1] - Silver futures closed at 18,131 CNY per kilogram on December 25, 2025, with a daily increase of 5.50%, reflecting multiple instances of significant daily fluctuations throughout December [1] - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with gold prices surpassing $4,400 per ounce and silver's annual increase nearing 150% [3] Group 2 - The surge in precious metals is driven by a shift in global monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve completing three rate cuts totaling 175 basis points in 2025, leading to a lower opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver [3] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and escalating conflicts in Europe, have added a strong safe-haven premium to precious metals [3] - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China adding over 41 tons in the past 13 months, contributing to a global gold ETF holding nearing 4,000 tons [3] Group 3 - The imbalance in supply and demand is a key factor for silver's leadership in the market, with industrial demand rising by 15% due to a 30% increase in global photovoltaic installations, while supply has faced a shortfall of 187.6 million ounces [4] - The capital market's influx of funds has amplified the price surge, with the China Universal Silver Futures LOF fund seeing a premium of 45% over its net asset value [4] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculation in the silver futures market, including trading limits and increased transaction fees [5] Group 4 - The soaring prices of precious metals are beginning to suppress consumer demand, with rising costs affecting purchasing decisions for items like platinum jewelry [7] - There are significant divergences in predictions for the precious metals market in 2026, with forecasts for gold prices ranging from $4,900 to over $5,000 per ounce, and some predictions suggesting gold could reach $10,000 [7] - Analysts caution that the current market dynamics are driven more by sentiment and capital flows rather than solid supply-demand fundamentals, indicating potential risks for a rapid price correction [9]

另外，哥伦比亚常驻联合国代表莱昂诺尔·扎拉巴塔5日在安理会就委内瑞拉局势举行的紧急会议上谴责 美国对委内瑞拉发动军事行动。 扎拉巴塔表示，美国3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发动的军事行动明显侵犯了委内瑞拉的主权、政治独立和领土 完整。哥伦比亚对此予以坚决谴责。 今日周二(1月6日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于19042一线上方，今日开盘于18126元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报19309元/千克，上涨6.27%，最高触及19348元/千克，最低下探18082元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 当地时间1月5日清晨，哥伦比亚总统佩特罗在社交媒体上发文，回应美国总统特朗普对他的威胁，表 示"如果威胁成真，将拿起武器向入侵者开枪。"佩特罗表示，他将核实特朗普相关言论的真实含义，并 作出回应。 佩特罗说，已请求人民捍卫总统，抵制针对他的任何非法暴力行为。他已向哥伦比亚全体官兵下达命 令，任何效忠外国而非哥伦比亚的指挥官必须立即离职。佩特罗还表示，哥伦比亚已成功击毙和抓捕了 隶属于贩毒集团的一线高级指挥官。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银上涨则不猜顶，有可能会破 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical events and economic data may boost the allocation value of physical assets such as gold, and the market's risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential increase in the demand for gold investment. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain a volatile and upward pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to narrow [1][8] Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: Switzerland has frozen all assets held by Maduro and related individuals in Switzerland, which may further promote the allocation value of physical assets such as gold [1] - Economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders remain weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 991.00 yuan/gram and closed at 995.00 yuan/gram, a change of 1.78% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.60 yuan/gram, a 0.66% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 18,200.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,247.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 6.87% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 671,811 lots, and the open interest was 238,881 lots. The night session closed at 18,745 yuan/kilogram, a 2.73% decrease from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 5, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.165%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.71%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 214 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -2,347 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 191,025 lots, a change of -27.68% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 9,187 lots, and the short positions changed by 3,136 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,079,343 lots, a change of -6.54% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 1,065.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,444 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 5, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 4.45 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -834.29 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 54.53, a change of 5.27% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.11, a change of 2.03% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 44,012 kilograms, a change of -29.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,430 kilograms, a change of -2.87% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 9,030 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, and the Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 970 yuan/gram and 1020 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward pattern, and the Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 18,400 yuan/kilogram and 19,400 yuan/kilogram. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In the coming month, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility. It is recommended to focus on volatility, and gold bulls should allocate on dips [1]. - In the high - volatility market, silver investors should keep a light - long position and use options to lock in profits in a timely manner [1]. - With the strong external market performance, the price center of platinum will gradually rise, and a low - long approach is recommended. Palladium's fundamentals are relatively weaker and its trend will mainly follow [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 995.00 yuan/g on January 5, up 10.16 yuan or 1.03% from December 30 [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 18,247 yuan/10g on January 5, up 107 yuan or 0.59% from December 30 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 583.95 yuan/g on January 5, up 56.70 yuan or 10.75% from December 30 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 452.85 yuan/g on January 5, up 27.65 yuan or 6.50% from December 30 [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4459.70 on January 5, up 117.80 or 2.71% from January 2 [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 76.51 on January 5, up 4.25 or 5.87% from January 2 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2288.00 dollars/ounce on January 5, up 126.20 or 5.84% from January 2 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1772.50 on January 5, up 77.00 or 4.54% from January 2 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4446.89 on January 5, up 114.38 or 2.64% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 76.53 on January 5, up 3.71 or 5.09% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2271.22 dollars/ounce on January 5, up 139.22 or 6.53% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1700.00 on January 5, up 59.00 or 3.60% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D was at 992.63 yuan/g on January 5, up 10.43 yuan or 1.06% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T+D was at 18319 yuan/kg on January 5, up 200 yuan or 1.10% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 574 yuan/g on January 5, up 9 yuan or 1.51% from the previous day [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力: The current value is - 2.37, up 0.27 from the previous day, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 63.00% [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力: The current value is 72, up 93 from the previous day, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 98.30% [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold: The current value is - 12.81, down 3.42 from the previous day, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 63.40% [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver: The current value is 0.02, down 0.53 from the previous day, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 80.40% [1]. Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver: The current value is 58.29, down 1.79 or - 2.99% from the previous day [1]. - SHFE gold/silver: The current value is 54.53, up 0.24 or 0.44% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum/palladium: The current value is 1.29, up 0.02 or 1.24% from the previous day [1]. - GZFE platinum/palladium: The current value is 1.29, up 0.05 or 3.99% from the previous day [1]. Yields and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield: The current value is 4.17%, down 0.02 percentage points or - 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield: The current value is 3.46%, down 0.01 percentage points or - 0.3% from the previous day [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield: The current value is 1.91%, down 0.03 percentage points or - 1.5% from the previous day [1]. - US dollar index: The current value is 98.33, down 0.13 or - 0.13% from the previous day [1]. - On - shore RMB exchange rate: The current value is 6.9829, up 0.0130 or 0.19% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - SHFE gold inventory: The current value is 97,704, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - SHFE silver inventory: The current value is 669,547 (10g), down 86,207 or - 11.41% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX gold inventory: The current value is 36,403,452, up 482 or 0.00% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver inventory: The current value is 449,521,788, down 251,580 or - 0.06% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts: The current value is 19,361,515 ounces, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts: The current value is 127,264,198, down 571,065 or - 0.45% from the previous day [1]. - SPRD gold ETF position: The current value is 1065, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - SLV silver ETF position: The current value is 16,354, down 90.54 or - 0.55% from the previous day [1].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the global liquidity environment significantly improved, with the Federal Reserve initiating a substantial interest rate cut cycle, leading to a 9.41% decline in the US dollar index, which provided a favorable external environment for the rise in precious metal prices. China's steady growth policies continued to exert influence, with marginal recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure demand, resulting in a notable improvement in the demand for non-ferrous metals and related new energy products. Under the resonance of loose liquidity and risk aversion, the precious metals sector performed exceptionally well, with the Wind Precious Metals Index rising by 69.7%, significantly outperforming major global equity markets. Overall, the asset trends in 2025 exhibited a typical characteristic of "precious metals leading, equity assets diverging, and a weaker dollar" [1]. Group 1: Asset Performance - The Wind Precious Metals Index increased by 69.7% in 2025, outperforming the major equity markets [2] - The total A-share market rose by 27.65%, while the S&P 500 index increased by 16.39% [2] - The US dollar index fell by 9.41%, marking a significant shift in the currency landscape [2] Group 2: Futures and Options Market - In 2025, 18 new futures and options products were launched, with 9 in each category, reflecting a focus on non-ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and precious metals [4][5] - The total funds in the domestic futures market reached 497.75 billion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 52.61%, reversing the previous two years of outflows [9] - The trading volume in the futures market reached a historical high of 76.625 trillion yuan, up 23.74% year-on-year [12] Group 3: Trading Company Rankings - Guotai Junan ranked first in trading volume with 1.631 billion contracts, a 44.74% increase year-on-year [17][18] - CITIC Futures ranked second with 1.486 billion contracts, showing a 14.02% increase [18] - The top ten trading companies accounted for approximately 57.83% of the total delivery volume in the futures market [19] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Silver futures saw a remarkable increase of 124.62% in 2025, with CITIC Futures earning over 4.9 billion yuan in profits from silver trading [22][23] - The precious metals sector experienced a significant inflow of 952.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.45% [30] - The trading volume of precious metals reached 145.11 trillion yuan, marking a 76.63% increase year-on-year [27] Group 5: Commodity Price Trends - Precious metals continued to rise for the fourth consecutive year, while energy and chemical sectors faced declines, with crude oil prices dropping by 10.98% [47] - The delivery amount for gold reached 51.741 billion yuan, a 291.50% increase year-on-year [49][50] - The market saw a divergence in performance, with precious metals leading the commodity market while energy indices fell by over 20% [33]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising prices of gold and silver, highlighting their appeal as investment options amid global economic uncertainty. Gold prices approached $4,600 per ounce with a nearly 70% increase in 2025, while silver prices surpassed $71 per ounce with over a 140% increase [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - Ordinary workers are increasingly investing in gold, with products like Agricultural Bank's "Gold Savings" allowing for monthly purchases starting from 1 gram, making it accessible for the average consumer [4]. - High-net-worth individuals are also favoring gold, with a report indicating it has surpassed stocks and funds as the preferred investment choice for the coming year [4]. - The perception of gold has shifted from being an old-fashioned asset to a modern investment tool, appealing to younger generations [4]. Group 2: Silver Investment Dynamics - Silver has seen a significant price increase due to strong industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy and electric vehicle sectors, with a 28% year-on-year growth in silver demand from the photovoltaic industry [5]. - The World Silver Association projects that global industrial demand for silver will exceed 600 million ounces in 2025, marking a historical high [5]. - Investment channels for silver are becoming more accessible, with options like automatic investment strategies and various financial products catering to different risk appetites [5][6]. Group 3: Expert Recommendations - Experts advise investors to approach gold and silver investments with caution, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% of total assets and recommending systematic investment methods to mitigate risks [7]. - Conservative investors are encouraged to consider bank savings or physical precious metals, while more aggressive investors might explore silver-themed funds or linked financial products [7]. - The importance of maintaining a rational and patient investment strategy is emphasized, suggesting that emotional decision-making can lead to poor investment outcomes [8].

Group 1 - Gold prices rebounded significantly, with spot gold breaking above $4,400 and spot silver surpassing $75 [1] - Domestic precious metal futures opened higher, with palladium futures rising over 12% and platinum nearly 12% [1] - The A-share precious metal sector saw an increase of 2%, with companies like Hunan Silver, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Gold leading the gains [1] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation is influencing market dynamics, as U.S. President Trump issued threats regarding Venezuela's interim president, indicating potential U.S. intervention and a desire for Venezuelan oil and resources [1] - Venezuela's foreign minister reiterated the country's commitment to peace and coexistence, emphasizing the need for international respect and cooperation [1]

1月5日，在经历了2025年黄金与白银的强势行情后，贵金属市场的关注焦点正逐步发生变化。 Mhmarkets迈汇认为，随着市场进入新的周期，资金不再只集中于传统避险资产，铂金及钯金等铂族金 属正在重新进入投资者视野，成为2026年值得重点审视的方向。 从数据表现来看，白银、铂金和钯金在去年均录得历史性涨幅，其中白银涨幅接近150%，铂金超过 126%，钯金约80%。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，尽管涨势显著，但铂族金属整体仍未完全反映其供需基本面 的紧张程度，这为后续估值修复留下了空间。 需求结构的变化是市场重新评估铂金和钯金的重要原因。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，虽然电动车发展曾压制 铂族金属情绪，但内燃机车型在多个核心市场依旧保持稳定需求，使汽车行业继续贡献约八成消费量。 同时，玻璃制造与电子产业的稳定用量，也增强了铂金需求的多元支撑。 在供给端，长期投资不足导致的产能受限仍未缓解。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，连续多年的供应缺口已显著 消耗地上库存，目前全球库存仅能覆盖数月需求，这意味着即便市场逐步走向平衡，现货紧张状态仍可 能延续，并对价格形成中长期支撑。 展望2026年，多家机构对铂金价格中枢上移持相对 ...

研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 | | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | 2026/1/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 995.000 期货市场 | | 17.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 18247 | +1173.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) 132,523.00 | | -3780.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 2,370.00 | -238.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 115,296.00 | | -169259.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 671,811.00 | -1627695.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 97704 | | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 669,547 | -22091↓ | | | 上金所黄金现货价 993.57 现货市场 | | 18.67↑ 华 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock prices of U.S.-listed precious metal mining companies have risen in pre-market trading, following an increase in gold and silver prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Invesco Silver Trust Fund increased by 4.4% [1] - The Invesco Gold Trust Fund rose by 2.2% [1] - Kinross Gold Corporation's stock price went up by 2% [1] - AngloGold Ashanti's stock price increased by 1.4% [1] - Barrick Gold Corporation and Newmont Mining Corporation both saw their stock prices rise by 2% [1]