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申银万国期货早间策略-20250425
Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market shows increasing resilience. Future focus should be on China's policies to boost the domestic economy. It is recommended to take a cautious long - position approach in operations. The impact of tariffs on the market has decreased, but the outcome of the Sino - US tariff dispute remains uncertain [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Futures**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods increased, with the increase ranging from 1.60 to 6.00. The trading volume of IF next month was 48,747.00, the highest among IF contracts. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for the IF far - season contract which increased by 149.00 [1]. - **IH Futures**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods all increased, with an increase of about 8.00 - 8.80. The trading volume of IH next month was 24,156.00. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while the current - month and far - season contracts increased [1]. - **IC Futures**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods decreased, with a decrease of about 15.80 - 18.80. The trading volume of IC next month was 39,686.00. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for the far - season contract which increased by 385.00 [1]. - **IM Futures**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods decreased significantly, with a decrease of about 52.20 - 55.60. The trading volume of IM next month was 135,094.00. The open interest of some contracts decreased, while the far - season and next - season contracts increased [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased compared to the previous values [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.07%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.25%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.52%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.07%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed different trends, with industries such as energy rising and industries such as telecommunications business falling [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different futures contracts relative to the corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two - day values [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.58%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.68% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.74%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.49%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.03%, and the DAX index increased by 0.47% [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - The 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List reduced the number of items from 117 in the 2022 version to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions. New business forms such as unmanned aerial vehicle operations and new - type tobacco products were included in the negative list [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified that there were no ongoing Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [2]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized promoting cross - border trade facilitation [2]. - The central bank governor stated China's stance on opening - up, free trade, and maintaining global economic and financial stability [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce said China will continue to expand high - level opening - up and support foreign - invested enterprises [2]. 6. Industry Information - Seven ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan for the digital and intelligent transformation of the pharmaceutical industry from 2025 - 2030 [2]. - In the first quarter, the cumulative telecom business revenue was 446.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the telecom business volume increased by 7.7% at constant prices of the previous year [2]. - China is willing to resolve Sino - EU electric vehicle trade frictions through dialogue [2]. - In the first quarter, China's freight volume increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and transportation fixed - asset investment reached 675.2 billion yuan [2]. - Shanghai issued measures to cultivate the commercial space advanced manufacturing cluster, aiming for an industrial scale of 100 billion yuan by 2027 [2]. 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose. In the previous trading session, the stock indexes were divided, with the beauty care sector leading the gain and the computer sector leading the decline. The total trading volume was 1.14 trillion yuan. The financing balance on April 23 increased by 2.026 billion yuan to 1.799789 trillion yuan [2].
冠通期货早盘速递-20250425
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 02:57
Group 1: Hot News - The "Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition)" was released, with the number of list items reduced from 117 in the 2022 edition to 106, further relaxing market access restrictions and optimizing market access management. New business forms and fields such as unmanned aerial vehicle operations and the production, wholesale, and retail of new tobacco products like e - cigarettes were included in the negative list [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified the rumor of "China - US trade negotiations," emphasizing that no economic and trade negotiations are taking place between the two sides [3] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on April 29, the trading margin standards and daily price limit ranges for various futures contracts will be adjusted [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that starting from the settlement on April 29, the daily price limit ranges and trading margin levels for some futures contracts will be adjusted. It also solicited public opinions on the monthly average price futures contracts of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene and related rules [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include urea, polysilicon, crude oil, soybean meal, and Shanghai copper [5] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.75%, precious metals 29.72%, oilseeds and oils 12.74%, soft commodities 2.87%, non - ferrous metals 18.58%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 13.64%, energy 2.43%, chemicals 12.47%, grains 1.92%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.88% [5] Group 3: Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.03%, the SSE 50 rose 0.25%, the CSI 300 fell 0.07%, the CSI 500 fell 0.52%, the S&P 500 rose 2.03%, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.74%, the German DAX rose 0.47%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.49%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.05% [8] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.09%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.05% [8] - Commodities: The CRB Commodity Index rose 0.75%, WTI crude oil rose 0.80%, London spot gold rose 1.83%, LME copper rose 0.77%, and the Wind Commodity Index rose 0.81% [8] - Others: The US Dollar Index fell 0.62%, and the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged [8]
金价回落、股市反弹;苹果、Meta在欧洲被罚;特斯拉暂时结束“无人驾驶”状态丨百亿美元公司动向
晚点LatePost· 2025-04-24 12:40
特朗普缓和关税言论,股市反弹、金价触高后回落。 当地时间 4 月 22 日,美国总统特朗普在白宫新闻发布会上表示,对中国商品累计加征的 145% 关 税 "太高了",税率将 "大幅下降,但不会为零"。 中美贸易谈判前景改善,也推动行情回升。美股盘中拉升,终结连续 4 天的跌势,4 月 22 日三大 指数全部收涨超 2.5%。恒生指数收涨 2.37%,苹果、汽车产业链股也都集体走高。 黄金价格此前突破了每盎司 3500 美元的历史新高,但大涨后迅速跳水,下跌近 2%,国内零售市 场足金金饰一夜跌了 27 元 / 克。今年以来,由于特朗普多次抨击和威胁美联储,黄金几乎成了唯 一的避险资产,价格上涨近三成。金价转跌也跟特朗普态度大反转有关,此前他曾称美联储主席鲍 威尔是 "大输家" 和 "行动太慢先生",多次施压他降息,并威胁会解雇他。 然而当地时间 22 日美股盘后,特朗普接受采访时称自己无意撤换鲍威尔,加上早前美国财政部长 贝森特称看到和中国的关系缓和,让市场情绪有所回暖。 苹果和 Meta 合计被欧盟罚款 7 亿欧元。 其中苹果被罚 5 亿欧元,Meta 被罚 2 亿。处罚依据是 2022 年通过的《数字市场 ...
关税战拉响美国衰退预警,特朗普频繁改口下的缓兵之计
和讯· 2025-04-24 09:48
以下文章来源于财经杂志 ,作者成孟琦 黄慧玲 编辑|杨秀红 美国总统特朗普,又一次因为"改口",而使全球资产出现风险偏好的转换,还带动中国资产上涨。 受特朗普对中国关税"松口"的影响,4月22日,避险情绪消退下,传统避险资产黄金、日元和瑞士 法郎出现不同程度回落,美国股市则出现回升,美股三大股指均上涨超2.5%。 4月23日,美股三大 股指数续升,纳指收涨2.5%,道指收涨1.1%,标普500指数收涨升1.7%。 现货黄金在回调后反弹,4月22日-23日,现货黄金连续走低,伦敦金现一度跌至3291美元/盎司, 4月23日下跌2.71%。不过,4月24日,金价开始反弹,截至上午11时,伦敦金现反弹至3350美 元/盎司左右,涨幅近2%。 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办,1998年创刊,秉承"独立、独 家、独到"的新闻理念,以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长,是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的 必读刊物。 机构认为,贸易紧张局势最糟糕阶段可能已过去,市场焦点将集中在中美谈判及中国自身政策上。 文|《财经》特约撰稿人 成孟琦 记者 黄慧玲 中国资产方面,4月23日,A股直冲 ...
宁证期货今日早评-20250421
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 03:33
今 日 早 评 重点品种: 【短评-原油】周六进行的美伊谈判顺利结束,特朗普政府 官员表示,美国和伊朗在直接及间接商讨中取得了十分良好的 进展,且双方同意下周再度会面,伊朗外长同样表示,在罗马 进行的相关会谈中存在相对积极的氛围,这促使在可能达成的 协议的原则和目标方面取得了进展。伊朗外交部长还称下周三 将在阿曼恢复专家级别的核谈判,将开启专家层面谈判进程以 敲定相关细节。评:多个产油国向OPEC+提交补偿性减产计划, 原油再次回到了供需相对平衡态。操作上,观望或短多交易。 关注伊核谈判进展及美国计划与中国展开贸易谈判的可能。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1431元/吨,下降14.5 元/吨;纯碱开工率90.09%,个别企业负荷波动;纯碱厂家总库 存171.13万吨,环比上升1.08%;浮法玻璃开工率75.42%,周度 持平;全国浮法玻璃均价1276元/吨,环比上日持平;全国浮法 玻璃样本企业总库存6507.8万重箱,环比下降0.19%。评:浮法 玻璃开工较稳,沙河市场交投一般,整体不温不火,下游采购 谨慎,低价成交为主。国内纯碱市场走势一般,装置运行淡 稳,下游需求一般,下月检修企业增加,供应有望下降 ...
暂时不允许股市下跌
表舅是养基大户· 2025-04-15 13:34
今天尾盘, 国家队进场的痕迹,还是比较明显的 ,相较于昨天,成交额明显放量的ETF,一共有四个,分别是华夏、易方达、嘉实的沪深 300ETF,以及华夏的上证50ETF,以华夏沪深300为例,昨天成交只有9亿出头,今天到了32亿,但今天A股总成交量只有1.1万亿,还缩量2000 亿,那么,这些新增的交易量,从何而来,也算一个"显学"了。 下图,是华夏沪深300的分时图,最后25分钟,黄色框框的部分,突然成交爆量,直接把指数拉红了。 目前来看,国家队的目标, 可能还不止稳住股市,而是暂时不允许股市下跌 ——上周二以来,上证指数和沪深300,都已经六连阳了。 按照咱们上周四聊的,《 股市,成了中美的战场 》,目前来看,交战的双方里面,至少我们这边,暂时不准备把抢放下,因为根据让子弹飞 里"谁赢,他们跟谁"的理论,撑的越久,相信的老乡就越多,打赢持久战的可能性也就越大,且后面会提到,中/美谈判尚未启动,撑的越久, 谈判就更有身位上的优势。 从国家队的角度看,这轮操作确实既有担当,又有水平 ,一方面,上周1500亿的大资金都砸下去了,现在一天只需要买个50亿左右,就能把大 盘拉红,边际成本着实不高;另一方面,连续拉涨, ...