1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

Who cares about basis points. Rick Santelli's got the PMI out just moments ago. Rick.Yes. You know, we're looking at a June final on S&P Global Manufacturing PMI. And normally going from midmon to final only has subtle uh changes, big change here.We went from 52.0% to 52.9%, which makes this the best manufacturing PMI reading by S&P all year. as a matter of fact, all the way back to May of 22, which really is something. And if you look at 2025, every month this year is above 50 in expansion territory.So, we ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, supported by tariff delays and the implementation of existing policies [2][5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, indicating a slight improvement in the service sector [2][7] - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in business activities [5][7] Group 2: Company Overview - Guangzhou Development (600098.SH) - Guangzhou Development is a comprehensive energy platform controlled by the Guangzhou Municipal Government, with a diversified energy industry system including power, energy logistics, gas, new energy, and energy finance [2][9] - As of the end of 2024, the total installed power capacity of the company was 10.26 GW, with significant contributions from coal, gas, wind, and solar power [2][9] - The company has maintained stable performance with continuous dividends for 26 years, achieving a net profit of 1.732 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.73% [2][9] Group 3: Business Segments - The company focuses on thermal power in the Greater Bay Area, benefiting from a decline in coal prices, which enhances the performance elasticity of thermal power [2][10] - The new energy business is rapidly developing, with plans to reach an installed capacity of 8 GW by the end of 2025 [2][10] - The gas segment, primarily in Guangzhou, has shown steady growth, with gas sales volume reaching 2.166 billion cubic meters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.18% [2][11] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.849 billion, 2.120 billion, and 2.373 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.74%, 14.70%, and 11.91% respectively [2][11] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12, 10, and 9 for the years 2025 to 2027 [2][11]

Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - Manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical threshold[8] - New orders index for manufacturing rose to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion territory, while the backlog of orders index remains below the threshold at 45.2%[13] - Production index improved to 51%, indicating an increase in manufacturing activity, while the employment index fell to 47.9%, suggesting ongoing labor market challenges[15] Group 2: Service and Construction PMI Insights - Service sector PMI decreased to 50.1%, but remains in the expansion zone, with new orders index at 46.9%, indicating insufficient demand[23] - Construction PMI increased to 52.8%, reflecting improved business activity, although the new orders index is still below the threshold at 44.9%[29] - Employment index in the construction sector recorded at 39.9%, indicating a lack of hiring activity[29] Group 3: Inventory and Price Trends - Manufacturing raw material inventory index at 48%, and finished goods inventory at 48.1%, both below the critical point, indicating insufficient replenishment[17] - Input prices for manufacturing recorded at 48.4%, while output prices at 46.2%, both below the threshold, suggesting pressure on profit margins[17] - Service sector input prices index at 50.2%, while sales prices index at 48.9%, indicating insufficient pricing power in the service industry[25] Group 4: Trade and Economic Outlook - Manufacturing import index at 47.8% and new export orders index at 47.7%, both below the threshold, indicating trade challenges[20] - Overall economic outlook remains cautious, with risks including deviations from expected fundamental recovery and geopolitical uncertainties[36]

Economic Indicators - In June, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.7%, reflecting overall economic recovery[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index continued to expand, with new orders rising above the threshold, indicating improved demand[3] - New export orders showed a minor recovery, with domestic orders performing better than foreign ones[3] - The purchasing volume surged into the expansion zone, reflecting a positive shift in corporate procurement attitudes[3] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Both factory prices and major raw material purchase prices increased, indicating a balance between downstream demand recovery and upstream commodity price fluctuations[3] - Finished goods inventory rose significantly, while raw material inventory continued to recover, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management[3] Sectoral Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.4%, while the consumer goods sector PMI rose to 50.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - Large enterprises maintained strong PMI performance, while small enterprises saw a decline of 2 percentage points, highlighting resource imbalances within the industry[4] Future Outlook - The EPMI index fell to 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence from the PMI due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues[10] - Economic recovery remains uncertain, with the real estate sector still in a downturn and consumer prices under pressure, suggesting reliance on fiscal stimulus for demand recovery[13] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, supported by the current economic data and policy expectations, despite external uncertainties[16]

Domestic News - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of medical insurance data for drug research and development [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, starting from July 1, 2025, due to recent international oil price changes [1] - The People's Bank of China Credit Center will implement new credit service fee standards starting July 1, 2025, allowing two free personal credit report inquiries per year, with a fee of 5 yuan for subsequent inquiries [1] - According to the China Banking Research Institute, the GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is expected to be around 5.4%, with a decline in growth for the second half, projecting GDP growth of 5% and 4.6% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively, leading to an annual growth of approximately 5% [1] Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the total land acquisition amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 506.55 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [2] - The Beijing second-hand housing market showed a robust recovery in the first half of 2025, with a total of 90,035 transactions, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [2] International News - The European Central Bank decided to maintain its inflation target at 2%, aligning with the Eurozone's inflation rate of 2% reported in June [4] - The Slovak Prime Minister expressed concerns over the EU's proposal to stop importing Russian gas, indicating potential delays in voting on the sanctions if adequate compensation is not provided [4]

股指期货全景日报 2025/7/1 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2509） IH主力合约（2509） | 3886.0 2689.8 | -1.0↓ IF次主力合约（2507） +2.2↑ IH次主力合约（2507） | 3911.6 2696.0 | +3.8↑ +4.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 5764.6 | -11.2↓ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5868.0 | +0.6↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6133.4 | -22.2↓ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6286.8 | -2.6↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1215.6 | +2.2↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1956.4 | -0.2↓ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 418.8 | -1.2↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3172.0 | +2.0↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2375.2 | ...

金十数据7月1日讯，周二公布的PMI调查显示，英国制造业在长期低迷中初现转机迹象。为抵消劳动力 成本上升，6月企业纷纷提高产品价格。英国6月制造业PMI终值从5月的46.4升至6月的47.7，与初值持 平，为连续第三个月改善，但仍连续第九个月低于50的荣枯线。PMI数据显示，在产出、招聘和新订单 方面，经济下滑的严重程度有所缓解。标普全球市场情报主管Rob Dobson表示："尽管如此，任何预期 的企稳都仍是脆弱的，可能受到潜在逆风的冲击，这些逆风可能严重影响需求、供应链可靠性和未来增 长前景。" 英国制造业衰退现缓和迹象 企业信心回升 ...

金十数据7月1日讯，一项调查显示，欧元区6月制造业活动显示出进一步复苏迹象，新订单逾三年以来 首次停止下滑，暗示欧元区陷入困境的制造业初步企稳。HCOB制造业PMI从5月份的49.4小幅升至6月 份的49.5，为2022年8月以来的最高水平，但连续第29个月低于50大关。初值为49.4。 PMI显示，欧元区工厂订单3年来首次企稳 ...