Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Crude oil: Hold a light long position in the calendar spread and stay on the sidelines for single-sided trading [1] 2. Core View - The report provides the latest prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, and also lists a series of global economic data and industry news that may affect the crude oil market [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI June crude oil futures closed down $0.37/barrel, a decrease of 0.60%, at $61.20/barrel [1] - Brent July crude oil futures closed down $0.47/barrel, a decrease of 0.72%, at $64.44/barrel [1] - SC2507 crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.21%, at 456.90 yuan/barrel [1] Global Economic Data - China's Swift RMB share in global payments in April was 3.5%, down from 4.13% previously [2] - China's year-to-date national power generation installed capacity annual rate in April was 15.9%, up from 14.6% previously [2] - China's year-to-date national power generation installed capacity in April was 349,000 million kilowatts, up from 343,081 million kilowatts previously [2] - France's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, expected 48.9, previous value 48.7 [2] - Germany's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.8, expected 48.9, previous value 48.4 [2] - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, expected 49.3, previous value 49 [2] - Germany's May IFO business climate index was 87.5, expected 87.4, previous value 86.9 [2] - UK's May services PMI preliminary value was 50.2, expected 50, previous value 49 [2] - UK's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.1, expected 46, previous value 45.4 [2] - UK's May CBI industrial order difference was -30, expected -24, previous value -26 [2] - US initial jobless claims for the week ended May 17 were 227,000, the lowest since the week ended April 19, market expected 230,000 [2] - US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, expected 50.1, previous value 50.2 [2] - US May S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 52.3, expected 50.8, previous value 50.8 [2] - US April existing home sales annualized total was 4 million units, expected 4.1 million units, previous value 4.02 million units [2] - India's crude oil imports in April decreased 1.0% year-on-year to 21.2 million tons, and gasoline exports increased 3.8% year-on-year to 1.2 million tons [2] Industry News - Israel is preparing to quickly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the US-Iran negotiations break down [2] - OPEC+ is discussing whether to agree to another ultra-large-scale production increase at the June 1 meeting, and a 411,000 barrels per day increase in daily output in July is one of the options under discussion [2][3] - The Iraqi oil minister hopes that oil prices will rebound in the second half of this year and has reservations about the energy agreement signed with the Kurdish region [3] - Saudi Arabia's domestic refinery crude oil processing volume in March increased by 323,000 barrels per day to 2.944 million barrels per day [3] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil production in March increased by 10,000 barrels per day to 8.957 million barrels per day [3] - Saudi Arabia's petroleum product demand in March increased by 223,000 barrels per day to 2.218 million barrels per day [3] - Saudi Arabia's petroleum product exports in March increased by 145,000 barrels per day to 1.553 million barrels per day [3] Trend Intensity - Crude oil trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, but the decline in consumption intensity may lead to price fluctuations. For aluminum, the rapid depletion of domestic aluminum ingot inventories provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. Lead prices are weak due to limited recycled raw material inventories and the decline in scrap battery prices. Zinc prices face a certain downward risk as the inventory accumulates. Tin prices may decline due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate, and the short - term strategy for alumina is to wait and see. Stainless steel prices have certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [1][3][4][5][7][8][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.34% to $9519/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77820 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 166525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts continued to decrease to 32000 tons. - **Market Situation**: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained above 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. However, due to the decline in consumption intensity, the price is expected to be volatile. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is $9400 - 9600/ton [1] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.77% to $2456/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20160 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased rapidly, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 58000 tons. - **Market Situation**: The trading volume in the spot market improved, and the inventory depletion rate accelerated. - **Price Outlook**: The rapid depletion of inventory provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum is $2430 - 2480/ton [3] Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 1.29% to 16681 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1955/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 58200 tons. - **Market Situation**: The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, and the start - up rate continues to decline. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term lead prices are weak [4] Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.72% to 22256 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $2676/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 83800 tons, and the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. - **Market Situation**: In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloy increased significantly, mainly flowing to Taiwan. The port inventory of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the processing fee increased again. - **Price Outlook**: In the medium term, as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates, zinc prices still face a certain downward risk [5] Tin - **Price Movement**: SHFE tin main contract fell 1.10% to 264780 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8056 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2665 tons. - **Market Situation**: The tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the high price suppresses the downstream restocking willingness. - **Price Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price center may move down. The operating range of SHFE tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $30000 - 33000/ton [6][7] Nickel - **Price Movement**: SHFE nickel fell 0.53% to 122890 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.90% to $15490/ton. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 86 tons to 200910 tons. - **Market Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of intermediate products remains high. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term rebound in nickel iron prices provides support, and nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $15000 - 16300/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index remained unchanged at 62657 yuan, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.70% to 62140 yuan. - **Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, and the SMM weekly inventory decreased by 141 tons. - **Market Situation**: The disk price is in the cost - intensive area, and there is selling pressure above. - **Price Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate. The operating range of the LC2507 contract is 61100 - 63200 yuan/ton [10] Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.05% to 3207 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9900 tons to 163600 tons. - **Market Situation**: The spot prices in various regions increased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. - **Price Outlook**: Due to the continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, the short - term strategy is to wait and see. The operating range of the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [12][13] Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.23% to 12870 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased by 1314 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials were stable, and the long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Qing Shan Group remained unchanged. - **Price Outlook**: The 304 variety has certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [15]

Core Insights - The temporary trade agreement between the US and China has led to a rebound in US business activity in May, but the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump have increased prices for businesses and consumers [1] - Despite the improvement in business sentiment, concerns about the negative impacts of Trump's policies persist, keeping sentiment slightly below the average level for 2024 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global composite PMI output index rose from 50.6 in April to 52.1 in May, indicating private sector expansion [1] - The manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded from 50.2 to 52.3, surpassing expectations of 50.1, while the services PMI increased from 50.8 to 52.3, contrary to predictions of stability [1] - New orders received by businesses increased from 51.7 in April to 52.4, primarily driven by manufacturing [3] Inflation and Costs - The prices paid by businesses for inputs surged from 58.5 in April to 63.4, the highest level since November 2022, indicating that companies are passing higher costs onto consumers [3] - The prices charged for goods and services rose from 54.0 to 59.3, marking the highest level since August 2022, suggesting a sharp increase in consumer price inflation [3] - Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise to approximately 3.5%, while GDP growth is projected to slow to below 1% this year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The employment index fell from 50.2 to 49.5, reflecting concerns about future demand, rising costs, and labor shortages [3] - Inventory investments have surged to an 18-year high due to fears of supply shortages and price increases related to tariffs [2]

美国5月标普全球制造业及服务业PMI初值将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights fluctuations in infrastructure investment growth and emphasizes the importance of subsequent funding implementation [2]. - Fixed investment growth is declining, with a drop in the PMI for both manufacturing and construction sectors [6][19]. - The construction sector is experiencing pressure on orders, with a notable decline in new orders and employment indices [6][39]. Summary by Sections Investment & Orders - In April, the manufacturing PMI fell below 50, and the construction PMI also decreased, with new orders and employment indices at 39.6% and 37.8% respectively. The construction PMI was 51.9%, down 4.4 percentage points year-on-year and 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [6][19]. - Fixed asset investment from January to April reached CNY 14.7 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with narrow infrastructure investment at CNY 4.9 trillion, up 5.8% year-on-year [22][23]. Physical Workload - Cement output has shown a year-on-year decline, while demand for cement in infrastructure remains relatively stable. From January to April, cement production decreased by 2.8% year-on-year [8][30]. Project Funding - The funding availability rate for construction projects is stable, with a slight improvement in housing construction. As of May 13, the funding availability rate was 59.1%, with non-housing projects at 60.65% and housing projects at 51.33% [9][30]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of CNY 13.68 trillion issued year-to-date, which is CNY 5.12 trillion more than the previous year [9][30].

智通财经APP获悉，欧元区5月私营部门活动意外萎缩，服务业创16个月来最差表现。标普全球周四公 布的数据显示，欧元区综合采购经理人指数(PMI)从4月的50.4降至5月的49.5，跌破50的荣枯线。分析师 此前预计该指数将小幅升至50.6。 欧元区私营部门5月份萎缩 今年前几个月，欧元区20国经济表现稳健，尽管贸易不确定性抑制了企业投资和家庭支出，但仍超出预 期。然而，2025年的增长可能会受到限制，欧盟委员会本周预测 GDP 将增长0.9%。 增长动力主要来自该地区两大经济体之外的国家。德国的PMI同样令分析师意外，因服务业表现疲软而 跌破50。与此同时，法国的PMI连续第九个月低于荣枯线。 下个月，该地区可能会得到提振，分析师预计欧洲央行将在此轮周期中第八次下调存款利率，至2%。 进一步的货币宽松政策是否跟进，将取决于美国的贸易政策。欧洲央行官员将在季度展望中公布几种情 景，以更好地了解潜在结果。 汉堡商业银行经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia在一份声明中表示："欧元区经济似乎始终难以站稳脚跟。虽然 服务业的外部需求正在减弱，但拖累该行业的主要因素似乎是疲软的国内需求。" 长期以来的制造业疲软是部 ...

英国5月服务业PMI初值为50.2，预期50，前值49；英国5月制造业PMI初值为45.1，预期46，前值45.4。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French services sector PMI has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, indicating ongoing economic challenges in France despite some improvements in manufacturing [1] Group 1: Services Sector - The preliminary services PMI in France dropped from 47.3 in April to 47.4 in May, remaining below the neutral line for nine months [1] - The overall composite PMI also stayed below the neutral line for nine consecutive months, reflecting a bleak outlook for the private sector [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI preliminary value increased to 49.5 in May, up from 48.7 in April, suggesting some improvement in this sector [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The economic challenges are attributed to domestic political instability and a fragile macroeconomic environment [1] - Despite efforts by President Macron to position France as an attractive destination for investment and R&D, the overall business outlook remains dim, particularly in the services sector [1]

印度5月服务业PMI初值 61.2，前值 58.7。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The addition of tariffs to small packages by the EU and the less - than - expected price increase by MSK have led to wide - ranging fluctuations in the shipping market, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. The market shows intense long - short gaming, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and current freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% [2]. - On May 16, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; for the US - West route, it was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the SCFI US - West route price was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70% [2]. - On May 16, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1104.88 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; for the US - West route, it was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. - On May 21, the main contract 2508 closed at 2121.1, down 7.18%, with a trading volume of 100,500 lots and an open interest of 53,000 lots, an increase of 1266 lots from the previous day [3]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's preliminary April manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous - 2.9) [2]. - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin China manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The preliminary April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final 50.2), the services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final 54.4), and the composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final 53.5) [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: Given the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate in the short - term. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. Currently, it is mainly in a positive arbitrage structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach high levels, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Other Information - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding a major disturbing factor to the future of maritime shipping. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - route shipping capacity, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - There are differences in the future freight rate trends and price announcements. The market has intense long - short gaming, with wide - ranging fluctuations and an obvious decline at the end of the session [3]. - The Israeli government has recalled some of its negotiators for the detained persons in Gaza, leaving only a small team in Doha, Qatar [5]. - The EU plans to impose a 2 - euro tax on small packages entering the EU, most of which are from China [5].