Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

Core Insights - In September 2025, China's banks recorded a foreign exchange settlement surplus of $51 billion, the largest since December 2020, indicating a significant increase in the willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange amid rising expectations for the appreciation of the Renminbi [1][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Data - In September 2025, banks settled $264.7 billion in foreign exchange and sold $213.6 billion, resulting in a surplus of $51 billion, marking the highest monthly surplus in nearly five years [4]. - From January to September 2025, banks accumulated $1,853.3 billion in settlements and $1,790.1 billion in sales, leading to a cumulative surplus of $63.2 billion, which is higher than the same period last year [4]. - In September 2025, banks recorded foreign income of $681.2 billion and foreign payments of $684.3 billion, with cumulative figures from January to September being $5,870.5 billion and $5,750.8 billion respectively [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The data reflects an optimistic sentiment towards the Renminbi, with offshore Renminbi reaching its strongest level since November of the previous year, and export enterprises accelerating their foreign exchange settlements, which may further support the Renminbi [1][5]. - According to Khoon Goh, head of Asian research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, the net surplus in foreign exchange settlements indicates an increase in funds flowing into China, which supports the Renminbi, while the willingness of exporters to settle foreign exchange is also on the rise [5]. - With the central bank favoring a stronger Renminbi and pushing for an increase in the central parity rate, it is anticipated that the settlement ratio among exporters will further increase, leading to additional appreciation of the Renminbi for the remainder of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market showed a significant increase in both bank settlement and sales, with a surplus of 510 billion USD, indicating a robust and balanced foreign exchange environment [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bank Settlement and Sales Data - In September 2025, banks settled 18,809 billion RMB (approximately 2,647 billion USD) and sold 15,183 billion RMB (approximately 2,136 billion USD), resulting in a settlement surplus of 3,626 billion RMB (approximately 510 billion USD) [1]. - From January to September 2025, banks cumulatively settled 185,330 million USD and sold 179,010 million USD [1][2]. - The bank's foreign-related income in September was 48,409 billion RMB, while foreign payments were 48,629 billion RMB [1]. Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In September, the total cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reached 1.37 trillion USD, reflecting a 7% month-on-month increase [3]. - The net outflow of cross-border funds was 31 billion USD in September, which has since turned into a net inflow in October [3]. - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure for the first three quarters of the year reached 11.6 trillion USD, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Trends - In September, China's total import and export value was 4.04 trillion RMB, with exports growing by 8.4% and imports by 7.5% year-on-year [4]. - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of 6.8 trillion RMB in September, indicating a significant increase and setting a new high [4]. - Experts predict that the upcoming peak in corporate financial settlements and profit distributions will likely lead to an increase in bank settlement volumes, potentially supporting the appreciation of the RMB [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, with a balanced supply and demand situation, despite potential complexities from seasonal factors and policy adjustments [5]. - The shift from an export-driven economy to one focused on domestic demand may lead to a decrease in the contribution of trade surpluses to settlement and sales [5]. - The dual characteristics of cross-border investment are becoming more pronounced due to further financial market opening, which will complicate the dynamics of bank settlement and sales [5].

Economic Overview - The domestic economic fundamentals are showing positive signs, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating a stable and progressive economic operation [1] - The external environment is also improving, as trade tensions have eased following a video call between the economic leaders of China and the U.S., agreeing to a new round of consultations [1] Capital Flows - Southbound capital continues to favor the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of 450.89 billion HKD last week, marking a five-week high; the cumulative net inflow this year has surpassed 1.1 trillion HKD, reflecting strong confidence from mainland investors [1] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that with the backdrop of RMB appreciation and strengthened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, a "catch-up" rally in Hong Kong stocks is anticipated [1] - The technology sector in Hong Kong, identified as a core asset for AI, is highlighted as having significant investment value, according to Huafu Securities [1] - Despite recent volatility, the upward industrial cycle and influx of new capital are expected to support a bullish market trend for Hong Kong stocks in the fourth quarter, with technology remaining a key focus [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a significant rally, with major airlines seeing substantial stock price increases due to improved operational metrics and favorable market conditions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong aviation stocks rose collectively, with China Eastern Airlines up over 10%, China Southern Airlines up over 7%, and Air China up over 5% [1][3]. - The overall aviation sector in the Hong Kong market saw a 3.5% increase, with notable gains in A-shares as well [3][4]. Group 2: Operational Metrics - The Civil Aviation Administration of China reported a reduction in domestic flight slots for the upcoming winter-spring season, with decreases of 1.0% and 1.8% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [6]. - Domestic average ticket prices increased by 5.9%, and the average passenger load factor rose to 87.9%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [6]. Group 3: Industry Drivers - The recent price hikes by global shipping giants are attributed to a combination of factors, including reduced port capacity in Europe and North America, adjustments in the Red Sea and African routes, and global manufacturing restocking [6]. - The recovery in business travel demand has led to improved revenue levels, with domestic ticket prices turning positive, increasing by 3.0% compared to a decline of 6.5% in the previous months [8]. Group 4: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, reaching a new high in over 11 months, is expected to benefit the aviation sector, supported by expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and stable domestic economic policies [9].

Core Points - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of October 17, with the CFETS index at 97.08, down 0.24% week-on-week, the BIS index at 103.07, down 0.36%, and the SDR index at 91.49, down 0.40% [1][2] Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index weakened overall last week, closing at 98.55, down 0.27% for the week. This weakness supported non-USD currencies, with the euro, pound, and yen all appreciating against the dollar [5] - The RMB against the USD middle rate was reported at 7.0949, with a weekly increase of 186 basis points. The onshore RMB closed at 7.1277, up 83 basis points, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1269, down 37 basis points [5] - Year-to-date, the RMB middle rate has appreciated over 900 points, with the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating 2.40% and over 2.8% respectively [5] Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Analysts attribute the recent RMB appreciation to both internal and external factors. External factors include the impact of the US government shutdown on economic data, increasing uncertainty in financial markets, and accelerated capital flow from the US to non-USD countries [6] - Internal factors include the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and continuous optimization of market competition, which provide fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [6] - The core driver of RMB appreciation is the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which influences the RMB through direct effects on the dollar's exchange rate and interest rates [6] Economic Indicators - In September, the consumer market remained stable, with the CPI rising 0.1% month-on-month and falling 0.3% year-on-year. The core CPI rose 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion [8] - China's foreign trade continued to show a steady upward trend, with total goods trade value reaching 33.61 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 4% [8] - The broad money supply (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan at the end of September, growing 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with a midpoint exchange rate of 7.0968, is seen as beneficial for consumers, particularly for those engaging in overseas purchases and travel, while it poses challenges for export-oriented businesses [1][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The yuan's appreciation is attributed to stable economic performance in China, strong export data, and increased foreign investment, alongside a weakening US dollar due to uncertain Federal Reserve policies and fluctuating US Treasury yields [1][4]. - The onshore and offshore exchange rates reflect different liquidity conditions, with the onshore rate at 7.1238 and the offshore rate at 7.1298, indicating slight discrepancies influenced by global market expectations [1]. Impact on Consumers - The appreciation of the yuan allows consumers to save money on international travel and purchases, with examples showing significant savings on expenses like flights and accommodations [2][4]. - For students studying abroad, the lower exchange rate reduces the financial burden on families sending remittances for tuition and living expenses [4]. Challenges for Exporters - Export businesses face difficulties as the stronger yuan means they receive less in local currency when converting foreign earnings, which may impact their competitiveness [4]. - Individuals holding US dollar savings may find it less advantageous to convert to yuan at this time, although the long-term outlook suggests the yuan's appreciation may enhance its value retention [4]. Practical Tips for Consumers - Consumers are encouraged to monitor exchange rates regularly and utilize various platforms for currency exchange to maximize savings [5]. - Strategies such as splitting currency exchanges and using international payment apps can help mitigate risks associated with fluctuating exchange rates [5]. Long-term Outlook - The medium-term forecast suggests the yuan will remain stable within the range of 7.0 to 7.2, contingent on global economic recovery and domestic policy stability, while potential US interest rate hikes could lead to a rebound in the dollar [7]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism regarding the yuan's performance, with recommendations for consumers to balance their currency holdings to manage risks effectively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market continues to rebound, with the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) rising over 0.6% and experiencing a net inflow of over 700 million yuan for 10 consecutive trading days [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which includes leading technology stocks in sectors such as the internet, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - The index has outperformed the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index over the long term, with a cumulative increase of 65.26% since 2018, while the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index has decreased by 0.80% and the Hang Seng Technology Index has increased by 9.67% during the same period [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Huafu Securities expresses optimism about the Hong Kong stock market's "catch-up" trend, particularly in the context of the appreciation of the renminbi and strengthened expectations for US interest rate cuts, highlighting the focus on Hong Kong technology stocks that concentrate on AI core assets [1]

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD has shown a strong "stability" signal, with the rate reported at 7.0995 on October 15, marking an increase of 26 points and the first time above 7.10 since late October last year [1] - The onshore RMB opened at 7.1270, rising over 140 points, while the offshore RMB saw a daily increase of approximately 200 points, indicating an appreciation trend [1] - Experts suggest that the recovery of the RMB against the USD and the new high since October 21, 2024, reflects a focus on "stabilizing the exchange rate" as a current policy priority [1] Group 2 - The growth rate of foreign exchange deposits in domestic financial institutions has surpassed the threshold of 6% to 10%, indicating that the RMB has entered an appreciation cycle [2] - The current appreciation cycle of the RMB is primarily driven by the weakening of the USD due to the Federal Reserve's easing policies, with expectations of continued RMB appreciation until mid-next year [2] - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to appreciate against the USD amid increasing global political uncertainties and the potential for funds to flow from the US to non-US countries [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which has reached a midpoint of 7.10 against the US dollar for the first time since November last year, indicating a strengthening trend in the currency [1][4]. - The offshore yuan has seen a significant rise, gaining over 100 points following the midpoint adjustment, reflecting positive market sentiment [4][6]. - The rebound in equity assets is noted, with the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing a year-on-year decline in PPI of 2.3% for September, but a narrowing of the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][5]. Group 2 - Analysts attribute the yuan's appreciation to two main factors: increased expectations of interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, alongside a rebound in domestic price indices [5][8]. - The core CPI rose by 1.0% year-on-year in September, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months, indicating positive changes in some industry prices [5][6]. - The market has reacted positively, with major stock indices in Hong Kong and mainland China showing significant gains, driven by the favorable yuan movement [6][7]. Group 3 - The stability of the yuan is highlighted as being stronger compared to the stock and bond markets, suggesting a potential opening for further appreciation [7][8]. - The recent trade tensions and the depreciation of the US dollar have contributed to the yuan's strength, with the dollar index dropping significantly [7][8]. - The narrowing of the 10-year China-US interest rate differential and the easing of liquidity in the US market are also influencing the yuan's performance [7][8].