研究报告 – PVC 报告 2026 年 1 月 金融研究院 探底回升，宽幅震荡 摘要 2025 年 PVC 市场在国内需求收缩—供给缓慢扩张—出口被动放量—库存 高位钝化—成本中枢下移这一链条中反复寻找均衡点。 今年突出的变化有三点：一个是外需权重显著提升，出口在内需疲弱时承 担了"逆周期稳定器"的角色。二是产能扩张的工艺与区域结构变化，新增产 能更多来自沿海乙烯法及一体化装置，这改变了行业成本曲线的形态与边际供 给弹性。其三，库存从'高位但可消化'转向'高位且黏性'——库存的季节 性波动仍在，但其对价格的边际解释力被出口与成本所部分稀释，交易逻辑更 强调"库存变化率"而非库存绝对水平。 展望 2026 年：价格中枢难以脱离弱内需、强外需、供给弹性收敛这三因 素博弈。我们建议以"供给弹性—需求弹性—贸易弹性"的三维框架来组织交 易与风险管理：供给弹性取决于新增产能兑现、装置检修与环保约束；需求弹 性取决于地产链修复速度以及基建、制造业对冲能力；贸易弹性取决于印度等 关键市场的政策与新增产能节奏。在此框架下，策略上宜更偏向"区间+事件 驱动"，并以基差、月差与跨品种成本逻辑来构建组合。 一、行情回顾 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - SHEIN is revolutionizing the traditional manufacturing model in the textile and apparel industry through a digital and technology-driven approach, significantly enhancing supply chain efficiency and reducing inventory levels [1][3][6]. Group 1: Transformation of Manufacturing Processes - Traditional manufacturing faced challenges such as long order cycles, high inventory rates, and unpredictable cash flows, which SHEIN's model addresses effectively [5][6]. - The "small order quick response" model allows for production of only 100-200 pieces initially, drastically reducing inventory rates to single digits, compared to the industry average of 30% [6]. - SHEIN has developed over 180 innovative tools that enhance production efficiency by an average of 35%, with some processes seeing efficiency improvements of up to 40% [3][11]. Group 2: Supplier Empowerment and Training - Suppliers are increasingly adopting SHEIN's flexible supply chain model, transitioning from large orders to smaller, more manageable ones, which aligns with consumer demand for diversity [9][21]. - SHEIN provides extensive training and resources to suppliers, enhancing their capabilities in quick response production and quality control, which has led to significant improvements in operational efficiency [10][12]. - The collaboration with SHEIN has enabled suppliers to expand their production capabilities and adapt to new market demands, resulting in increased competitiveness [9][10]. Group 3: Digitalization and Information Flow - SHEIN's commitment to digital transformation is evident in its efforts to enhance information flow across the supply chain, making processes more transparent and efficient [11][12]. - The integration of digital tools in manufacturing processes has led to improved coordination and responsiveness, which is crucial for meeting market demands [11][12]. - The Chinese government supports this digital transformation, aiming for over 70% of key business processes in textile companies to be digitized by 2027 [11]. Group 4: Sustainability Initiatives - SHEIN is actively pursuing green transformation by integrating sustainability into its supply chain, focusing on reducing resource consumption and carbon emissions [14][15]. - The company has implemented innovative technologies that have saved significant amounts of water and reduced environmental impact, aligning with its sustainability goals [15][16]. - SHEIN's green initiatives are not limited to production but extend to logistics, with plans to utilize electric vehicles for transportation, further reducing carbon emissions [15][16]. Group 5: Ecosystem Development and Global Expansion - SHEIN's "500 City Industrial Belt Export Plan" aims to integrate cross-border e-commerce with local industrial clusters, enhancing responsiveness to global market demands [21][22]. - The company is becoming a strategic partner for international brands looking to expand their online presence, providing them with a platform for agile digital transformation [22][23]. - SHEIN's initiatives in talent development and standardization are fostering a skilled workforce, which is essential for sustaining growth and innovation in the industry [23][24].

人民日报记者 董丝雨 蒋雪鸿 推动经济社会发展绿色化、低碳化是实现高质量发展的关键环节。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型，建设美丽中国。"中央经济工作会议部 署"坚持'双碳'引领，推动全面绿色转型"的重点任务。 落实中央经济工作会议精神，各地各部门坚定不移走生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳高质量发展道 路，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，实现高水平保护、高品质环境、高质量发展良性互动、相得益 彰。 有计划分步骤实施碳达峰行动 中央经济工作会议提出，"深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造。制定能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新 型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应用。加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。" 在"双碳"目标引领下，我国经济社会发展绿色转型驶入快车道。 重点行业节能降碳改造进程提速。 辽宁本溪市的鞍钢集团本钢板材公司，通过"电炉+转炉"短流程低碳冶金工艺生产出的汽车钢，可 实现综合降碳30%以上。 能源结构变革、冶炼工艺突破……百年钢企逐绿向新，顺利完成2025年碳达峰阶段性目标。本钢集 团战略规划部双碳管理经理满桐介绍，将聚焦实现前沿低碳冶金技术产业化突破，推动深度降碳工艺大 规模应用。 中央经济工作会议提 ...

——着力推进全年经济工作八大重点任务⑥ 推动经济社会发展绿色化、低碳化是实现高质量发展的关键环节。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型，建设美丽中国。"中央经济工作会议部 署"坚持'双碳'引领，推动全面绿色转型"的重点任务。 坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型（稳中求进、提质增效 实现"十五五"良好开局） 落实中央经济工作会议精神，各地各部门坚定不移走生态优先、节约集约、绿色低碳高质量发展道 路，协同推进降碳、减污、扩绿、增长，实现高水平保护、高品质环境、高质量发展良性互动、相 得益彰。 有计划分步骤实施碳达峰行动 中央经济工作会议提出，"深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造。制定能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新 型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应用。加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。" 在"双碳"目标引领下，我国经济社会发展绿色转型驶入快车道。 重点行业节能降碳改造进程提速。 辽宁本溪市的鞍钢集团本钢板材公司，通过"电炉+转炉"短流程低碳冶金工艺生产出的汽车钢，可 实现综合降碳30%以上。 能源结构变革、冶炼工艺突破……百年钢企逐绿向新，顺利完成2025年碳达峰阶段性目标。本钢集 团战略规划部双碳管理经理满桐介 ...

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,232, up 0.3% for the day and 2.3% year-to-date (YTD) [1] - The MSCI China index increased by 0.3%, with a YTD gain of 3.0% [1] - The KOSPI index showed a strong performance, rising 0.7% for the day and 8.8% YTD [1] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil prices rose to $63 per barrel, reflecting a 2.2% increase for the day and 4.1% YTD [2] - Gold prices reached $4,510 per ounce, up 0.7% for the day and 4.4% YTD [2] - Copper prices increased by 2.2% for the day, with a YTD gain of 4.6%, closing at $12,998 per ton [2] Economic Indicators - The US CPI YoY for December was reported at 2.7%, matching consensus expectations [3] - China's GDP YoY growth was recorded at 4.8%, slightly above the expected 4.5% [3] - The Core CPI in the US remained stable at 2.8% YoY, indicating consistent inflationary pressures [3] Sector Insights - H-share banking stocks are gaining attention from long-term investors, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [8] - The H-share banking sector is expected to report positive gains in 2026, maintaining an OVERWEIGHT rating [9] - CIMC Enric's green methanol plant is projected to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 85%, tapping into a new market [12]

如今，绿色转型浪潮席卷工程运输行业，新能源车型成为替代传统燃油车的必然选择。对于追求高效盈利的卡友而言，如何选到适配重载运输、续航无 忧、能从容应对复杂路况的车型，成为核心考量。东风柳汽深研卡友需求，重磅推出乘龙H7 8X4纯电自卸车，以大电量、长续航、强电机、高承载、超舒 适五大硬核配置，为城建、矿山等工程运输场景提供高效、可靠、绿色的解决方案，成为卡友工程运输的创富之选。 大电量与长续航，是新能源车型打消续航焦虑的核心保障。乘龙H7 8X4纯电自卸车搭载国轩608度大容量电池，实现300km实际工况续航，精准覆盖工 程运输中短途高频循环作业场景，装卸货间隙即可完成补能，轻松实现"人歇车不歇"的高效运营。更有8年160万度电的超长质保承诺，有效延缓电池衰减速 度，让卡友用车更安心。 工程运输往往伴随着长时间驾驶和颠簸路况，乘龙H7 8X4纯电自卸车采用平地板设计，带来宽敞通透的驾乘体验，卡友在车内站立、转身、取放物品 都格外自如。同时，驾驶室搭载专业减震座椅，能有效过滤路面颠簸，配合优化的隔音设计，大幅降低行驶中的噪音干扰。 从破解续航焦虑的大电量配置，到赋能重载高效的强电机系统，从助力多拉多赚的高承载设计 ...

Group 1: Green Transition and Economic Development - The core viewpoint emphasizes that promoting green and low-carbon development is crucial for achieving high-quality economic growth, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the Central Economic Work Conference [1][2] - The implementation of carbon peak actions will be carried out in a planned and step-by-step manner, focusing on energy efficiency and carbon reduction in key industries, alongside the establishment of a new energy system [2][3] Group 2: Industry-Specific Initiatives - An example of a key industry making strides in energy efficiency is the Ansteel Group's Benxi Steel, which has achieved over 30% carbon reduction through low-carbon metallurgy processes [3] - The steel industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a goal to complete ultra-low emission modifications for 950 million tons of crude steel capacity by 2025 [3] Group 3: Renewable Energy Development - Inner Mongolia has made significant progress in green energy transition, with total installed capacity of renewable energy exceeding 170 million kilowatts, contributing over 80% of global photovoltaic components and 70% of wind power equipment [6][7] Group 4: Carbon Market and Emission Control - China has established the world's largest carbon market, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions from key industries such as power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum [7] - The carbon market aims to convert emission reduction pressures into internal motivation, encouraging participation in the green transition [7] Group 5: Pollution Prevention and Ecosystem Optimization - The Central Economic Work Conference has called for a comprehensive approach to pollution prevention, focusing on air, water, and soil protection, and enhancing ecosystem quality [9][10] - Significant improvements in water quality have been reported, with the proportion of good surface water bodies increasing from 64.1% to 90.4% [10] Group 6: Green Production and Lifestyle - The promotion of green production and lifestyle is a priority, with initiatives to integrate green development concepts into all aspects of economic and social development [12][13] - By the end of 2025, China aims to cultivate 6,430 green factories and 491 green industrial parks, promoting over 40,000 types of green products [13]

Group 1 - The "Dongjiang Lake Cloud Nest" data center in Hunan's Zixing City utilizes natural cold water from Dongjiang Lake to reduce energy consumption, highlighting the growing demand for computing power and data storage driven by new technologies like artificial intelligence [1] - China Construction Bank provided a comprehensive financial service plan totaling 152 million yuan to support the development of the national green data center [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, Hunan's green loan balance exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a 21.1% increase since the beginning of 2025, indicating a strong commitment to green finance and transformation [1] Group 2 - The completion of a comprehensive water environment governance project in Yiyang City by the end of 2025 will mark Hunan's first integrated project for the protection of the Yangtze River, featuring unified management of water supply and drainage systems [2] - Hunan has established provincial-level transformation financial standards to support the green transition of manufacturing industries, focusing on sectors like engineering machinery, automotive manufacturing, and non-ferrous metal smelting [2] - The core of transformation finance is to provide targeted financial support for high-carbon industries such as steel and energy to transition towards low-carbon and zero-carbon operations [2] Group 3 - The Zhengrun Casting Company in Hunan's Jiahe County has benefited from the establishment of a carbon emission account, allowing it to secure a "Green Casting Loan" to invest in technology improvements and reduce production costs [3] - By the end of November 2025, key enterprises in the casting and forging industry in Chenzhou received loans totaling 33.8 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The city of Zhumadian is transitioning from an agricultural hub to a manufacturing powerhouse, focusing on high-quality development in the manufacturing sector and creating a diverse industrial upgrade landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Transformation - Zhumadian is leveraging its agricultural advantages to enhance value chains, with local corn being processed into high-value products like crystalline glucose and lysine, achieving over 95% capacity utilization in its production lines [1]. - The company Wang Shouyi Thirteen Spices is modernizing traditional practices through automation and data analysis, responding to health consumption trends by developing low-salt and compound flavor products [2]. Group 2: Modern Food Industry - By November 2025, the modern food cluster in Zhumadian is projected to generate over 40 billion yuan, solidifying its role as a key foundation for the manufacturing sector [2]. - The city's industrial clusters, including equipment manufacturing and modern chemicals, have seen output from large enterprises exceed 120 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.31% [2]. Group 3: Pharmaceutical and Life Sciences - Tianfang Pharmaceutical is advancing in the life sciences sector, with two new drugs entering clinical trials and a nearly 30% increase in R&D investment [2]. - Zhumadian is establishing a complete industrial chain from raw materials to finished pharmaceuticals, positioning itself as a significant player in the antibiotic raw material market [2]. Group 4: New Energy Sector - The company Penghui Power Technology is producing 65,000 units of 40135 large cylindrical batteries daily, with explosive growth in the energy storage sector [3]. - The establishment of leading companies in the new energy sector has attracted numerous supporting enterprises, creating a comprehensive battery industry chain in Zhumadian [3]. Group 5: Niche Markets and Innovation - The company Wanhua Livestock Equipment has developed automated farming equipment that significantly increases efficiency, with a 40% year-on-year growth in orders since December [3]. - In the violin production sector, over 150 companies in Zhumadian contribute to 80% of the national output, generating an annual output value of 830 million yuan [3]. Group 6: Overall Industrial Development - Zhumadian is enhancing innovation platforms, nurturing leading enterprises, and optimizing the business environment to support industrial growth [4]. - The rise of billion-yuan industrial clusters signifies a profound industrial transformation and indicates a promising future for high-quality development in Zhumadian [4].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Japan Marine United Corporation (JMU) by Imabari Shipbuilding marks a significant consolidation in Japan's shipbuilding industry, aiming to enhance competitiveness against Chinese and Korean rivals and restore Japan's global market share in shipbuilding [1][2][3] Industry Consolidation - Imabari Shipbuilding has increased its stake in JMU to 60%, making JMU a subsidiary, which will allow for deeper collaboration in procurement and production [1] - The merger is seen as the largest consolidation in Japan's shipbuilding sector in decades, occurring at a critical time for the industry's survival [1][3] - The Japanese shipbuilding industry is undergoing significant restructuring, with companies like Mitsui E&S Shipbuilding reducing operations and focusing on ship repairs [3] Government Support and Strategic Goals - The Japanese government has identified shipbuilding as a strategic industry, aiming to revitalize it as part of its economic security policy, with a target investment of 1 trillion yen (approximately 441.9 billion RMB) [2] - Japan's shipbuilding capacity is currently around 9 million gross tons, with a goal to double this to 18 million gross tons by 2035 [2] - The government aims to increase Japan's global market share from approximately 13% to around 20% [2] Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Japan's shipbuilding industry faces structural challenges, including labor shortages and higher production costs compared to competitors in China and Korea [6][7] - The industry has seen a decline in market share due to aggressive investments and strategic initiatives by Chinese and Korean shipbuilders [5][6] - Japan's shipbuilding capacity has decreased from 16 million gross tons in 2019 to 9 million gross tons in 2024, leading to concerns about meeting domestic demand [5] Technological and Market Position - Despite challenges, Japan retains strengths in specific areas such as bulk carrier design and construction, as well as advancements in green technologies like ammonia and hydrogen fuel [8][9] - The collaboration between Imabari and JMU aims to leverage their combined strengths in technology and production to enhance competitiveness in the global market [10] - The focus on integrating advanced technologies and automation is crucial for Japan to maintain its position in the shipbuilding industry [7][10]