Inflation Data Summary - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month, while the month-on-month change was -0.2%, down from 0.1%[3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased to -3.3% from -2.7%, with a month-on-month change of -0.4%, consistent with the previous month[3] CPI Analysis - The CPI month-on-month decline of -0.2% aligns with the seasonal average over the past four years[3] - Food prices showed resilience with a month-on-month change of -0.2%, better than the four-year average of -0.9%, while non-food prices also fell by -0.2%, below the average of 0.0%[3] - Pork prices have remained stable, contributing less to CPI changes, with fresh vegetables and fruits showing stronger seasonal performance[3] PPI Insights - The PPI has broken below the previous range of -2.0% to -3.0%, indicating a significant downward trend[3] - Production materials have seen a month-on-month decline for five consecutive months, with a year-on-year drop of -4.0%[3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total decrease[3] Economic Outlook - Actual GDP is expected to remain resilient in Q2, but nominal GDP may face pressure, impacting equity market potential[3] - The report highlights the need for increased policy measures to stimulate demand and address supply-side competition issues[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, unexpected declines in real estate investment, and inflationary pressures from the U.S.[3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a marginal improvement in consumer prices due to consumption-boosting policies [1][4] - Food, tobacco, and alcohol prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI increase, while energy prices fell by 6.1%, impacting the CPI decline by about 0.47 percentage points [4][5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [5][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In May, the PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1][7] - The decline in PPI is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and international input factors affecting domestic prices, particularly in the oil and gas sectors [7][9] - Certain industries, such as arts and crafts, footwear, and computer manufacturing, saw price increases, indicating a recovery in some sectors driven by consumer demand [7][9]

Inflation Data Summary - In May, China's CPI year-on-year remained stable at -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month[2] - The core CPI in May increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a mild upward trend[4] - The PPI in May saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to April[2][17] Price Trends - Food CPI in May decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The PPI for production materials dropped by 4.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points[17] - The overall CPI in May was slightly above seasonal levels, driven primarily by food prices, while PPI remained in negative growth, reflecting weak industrial prices[6][22] Future Projections - For June, the CPI is expected to return to positive growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 0.1%[3][27] - The forecast for June indicates a food price increase of approximately 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices are expected to decrease by 0.1%[27] - The PPI for June is anticipated to remain at -3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of about -0.2%[27]

2025 年 06 月 09 日 核心 CPI 连续两月超季节性 宏观研究团队 宏 观 经 济 点 评 相关研究报告 《 美国就业市场仍有隐忧—美国 5月 非农就业数据点评》-2025.6.7 《美国关税战出现反复—宏观周报》 -2025.6.2 《PMI 小幅改善，关税或有反复—兼 评 5 月 PMI 数据》-2025.6.1 宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（联系人） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070017 事件：5 月 CPI 同比-0.1%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.1%；PPI 同比-3.3%，预期-3.2%， 前值-2.7%。 旅游、医疗服务带动服务 CPI 超季节性。5 月服务 CPI 环比超季节性 0.03 个百 分点，其中旅游、医疗服务价格环比明显超季节性。此外，其他用品及服务项超 季节性 0.48 个百分点，或指向 5 月贵金属饰品的价格上升仍是核心 CPI 回升的 重要原因，但较 4 月支撑作用明显降低，表明从边际上看，核心消费价格有所回 暖。 PPI 同比回落，能源、黑色 ...

新华财经北京6月9日电（记者安娜）5月份，随着我国促消费扩内需各项政策持续显效，价格呈现积极 变化，特别是核心CPI同比涨幅升至近一年最高点。 国家统计局9日发布的数据显示，5月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 "5月份，受季节性因素和油价下行影响，我国CPI延续低位运行态势，环比由涨转降，同比降幅持平于 上月。但在各项宏观政策协同发力下，供需结构有所改善，部分行业价格呈现积极变化，核心CPI同比 涨幅扩大，国内经济韧性凸显。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示。 除了核心CPI向好之外，5月份我国价格领域还有不少积极变化。据国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉 娟介绍，5月份，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点；金饰品、家 用纺织品和文娱耐用消费品价格分别同比上涨40.1%、1.9%和1.8%，涨幅均有扩大；燃油小汽车和新能 源小汽车价格虽然分别同比下降4.2%和2.8%，但降幅均有收窄。同期，服务价格同比上涨0.5%，涨幅 比上月扩大0.2个百分点。服务中，交通 ...

Group 1 - In May, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in energy prices [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total decrease [1] Group 2 - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline being less than the seasonal average of 1.1 percentage points, impacting the CPI by about 0.04 percentage points [1] - Hotel accommodation and tourism prices increased by 4.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively, both exceeding seasonal levels, with hotel prices reaching the highest increase for the same period in nearly a decade [1] - Year-on-year, energy prices dropped by 6.1%, with the decline expanding by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting the CPI by approximately 0.47 percentage points [1] Group 3 - Positive changes in prices are emerging in certain sectors due to effective consumer-boosting policies, with industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rising by 0.6% year-on-year [2] - Prices for gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable entertainment goods increased by 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8% year-on-year, respectively, with all showing expanded growth [2] - The chief economist of China Minmetals Bank anticipates a mild recovery in CPI, particularly in energy, as recent production cuts by several oil-producing countries may mitigate the negative impacts of OPEC+ production increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the impact of energy prices on CPI and the structural changes in supply and demand across various industries [1][4][5]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from previous increases [1][4]. - Energy prices significantly influenced the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI's decrease [4]. - The core CPI showed signs of recovery, indicating a gradual improvement in consumer demand due to supportive consumption policies [5][6]. PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][8]. - Factors contributing to the PPI decline include international input factors and a decrease in domestic energy and raw material prices [9]. - Certain sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing and new energy industries, showed signs of improved supply-demand relationships, with some prices stabilizing or recovering [10]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the PPI to remain in a bottoming phase for an extended period, while the CPI is projected to maintain low levels [12]. - The anticipated stabilization of international oil prices may reduce the downward pressure on CPI, although fluctuations in pork prices could introduce new challenges [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a slight decline in CPI and a continued low level of PPI, while noting improvements in certain sectors due to policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [1][5]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][4]. - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decrease [3]. - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetable supply increasing, leading to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices [3][4]. - Accommodation and tourism prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [3]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [1][5]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by international factors, including a 5.6% drop in prices in the oil and gas extraction industry, which contributed significantly to the overall decrease [6][7]. - Despite the overall decline, some sectors showed positive price movements, particularly in consumer goods, driven by effective consumption-boosting policies [7][8]. - High-end manufacturing and technology sectors experienced price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and aircraft manufacturing prices rising by 3.6% [8].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][2][3] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decline in CPI [2] - Food prices fell by 0.2%, with seasonal vegetables seeing a 5.9% price drop, while prices for eggs, pork, and poultry slightly decreased by 0.3% to 1.0% [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4][5] - The month-on-month PPI decline was influenced by international factors, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices and a 3.5% decrease in refined oil product manufacturing prices [4] - Some sectors showed marginal price improvements, with consumer demand policies positively impacting prices in certain industries, such as a 12.8% increase in the price of arts and crafts and a 0.8% rise in footwear manufacturing [5]

Core Insights - The main factor for the year-on-year decline in CPI is the drop in energy prices, which decreased by 6.1%, widening the decline by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease [1] Group 1: CPI and Energy Prices - CPI year-on-year showed a slight decline, with the drop rate remaining the same as the previous month [1] - Energy prices are the primary driver of the CPI decline, with a significant impact on overall inflation metrics [1] Group 2: Core CPI and Consumer Goods - Core CPI increased by 0.6%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 0.6%, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Notable price increases were observed in gold jewelry (up 40.1%), household textiles (up 1.9%), and durable entertainment goods (up 1.8%) [1] Group 3: Automotive and Service Prices - Prices for fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles decreased by 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively, although the rate of decline has narrowed [1] - Service prices rose by 0.5%, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Specific service categories such as vehicle rental, airfare, and tourism prices shifted from decline to increase, rising by 3.6%, 1.2%, and 0.9% respectively [1]