2025年06月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 沥青：跟随原油反弹，短线震荡为主 | 6 | | LLDPE：偏弱震荡 | 9 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 11 | | 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：成本宽幅震荡，短期支撑走弱 | 24 | | PVC：低位震荡，短期不宜追空 | 27 | | 燃料油：大跌趋势延续，短期波动将持续放大 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：跟随原油下探，外盘现货高低硫价差出现反弹 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡；10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短纤：上方空间有限，中期偏弱势 | 34 | | 瓶片：上方空间有限，中期偏弱势 | 34 | | 胶版印刷纸：震荡偏弱 | 35 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 62.52 | 61.84 | 1.10% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/2 | 美元/桶 | 64.63 | 64.90 | -0.42% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 0.00 | 569.50 | -100.00% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/5/30 | | 美元/吨 | 708.50 | 716.50 | -1.12% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/30 | 美元/吨 | 841.33 | 852.17 | -1.27% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/5/30 | 元/吨 | 4700.00 | 48 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound [1] - Alumina: Monitor maintenance and production suspension [1] Core Viewpoints - The US May ISM manufacturing index contracted for three consecutive months, with the import indicator hitting a 16-year low; the Eurozone May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, with the slowdown in contraction and output growing for the third consecutive month, showing signs of recovery [3] - Aluminum trend strength: 0; Alumina trend strength: 0 [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,070, down 130 from the previous trading day; the closing price of the LME aluminum 3M contract was 2,449, down 2; the trading volume of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 171,091, up 2,768; the open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 195,664, down 12,236 [1] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,962, down 2; the trading volume of the SHFE alumina main contract was 539,959, down 258,688; the open interest of the SHFE alumina main contract was 320,269, down 32,720 [1] Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 519,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 51,100 tons, down 700 tons; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 372,500 tons, down 2,600 tons [1] - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,300, up 4; the CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 393 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Cost and Profit - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,086.81, down 90; the spot import profit and loss of aluminum was -990.62, unchanged; the 3M import profit and loss of aluminum was -1,098.66, unchanged [1] - **Alumina**: The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 366, unchanged [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年5月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，贸易商商谈为主，现货基差走强。本周及下周主港货主流在 09+185成交，宁波货在09+178附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4835~4925附近。下周仓单在09+180有成交，6月中上仓单在 09+190有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+184。中性 2、基差：现货4865，09合约基差195，盘面贴水 偏多 3、库存：PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比减少0.13天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期： ...

豆粕生猪：缺乏炒作题材 豆粕小幅震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIDGHI FILLINE | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 載全 | 車位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 3013 | 3022 | -9.00 | -0.30% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2710 | 2716 | -6.00 | -0.22% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2961 | 2966 | -5.00 | -0.17% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2347 | 2347 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | ...

参与为主。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 菜籽系产业日报 2025-05-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) 9403 -41 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) 2604 | 5 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) -13 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) 169 257 | 5 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) 330390 -23200 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) 602245 -13634 | | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) 41277 -6544 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) -11826 14213 | | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) 1012 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) 28009 -429 | | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The PX price and PXN bottom will be supported in the short - term, and PX will continue to destock in the next few months. The cost - side support for PX is acceptable, with Asian devices planning to increase loads and high开工 rates for PTA and polyester [2]. - The PTA market declined slightly. The delay in restarting a 225 - ton PTA device in the Northeast is expected to increase the destocking amplitude in June, strengthening the spot basis. PTA spot prices will mainly follow the cost - side in the short term [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market is weak, with supply being relatively loose and downstream buying intentions low [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a fluctuating manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On May 27, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.89 per barrel, down 0.96% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.09 per barrel, down 1.00% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $567 per ton, up 0.15%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $701 per ton, down 0.64% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $840 per ton, up 0.80%. CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6706 yuan per ton, up 0.48% [1]. - **PTA**: CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4740 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4917 yuan per ton, up 0.86% [1]. - **PR**: CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6010 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5970 yuan per ton, down 1.00% [1]. - **Fiber Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6490 yuan per ton, down 0.92%. The CCFEI price index of polyester bottle - grade chips was 5970 yuan per ton, down 1.00% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 79.18%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 79.28%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 90.81%, up 0.06%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 84.19%, unchanged; the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load rate was 70.00%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 57.00%, up 21.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 54.00%, up 9.00%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 39.00%, down 26.00% [1]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the Northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20. A 2.25 - million - ton PTA device in the Northeast has postponed its restart [2]. Important News - The OPEC + meeting was advanced to May 31 to discuss increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day. Due to holidays, the trading in European and American markets was light [2]. - Although the supply tightened, the early recovery of some PX factories and the planned increase in loads of some devices led to a decrease in PX destocking. The polyester production - cut sentiment was strong, affecting market sentiment [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon fundamentals continue to face pressure from high supply and high warehouse receipts. Spot prices have been falling, and the futures price of SI2507 has decreased. The supply side is expected to increase, while the main demand from the photovoltaic industry chain remains weak, though the organic silicon industry chain shows some signs of improvement. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish, and prices are under pressure [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are gradually stabilizing, and futures prices have also shown signs of stabilization. In June, supply and demand are expected to be weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation if there is no further production cut. Some enterprises are restarting production or replacing capacity. The 06 contract price is relatively firm due to controllable warehouse receipt pressure. Technically, the futures price has rebounded, and it is advisable to try long positions while paying attention to production volume [2]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber in Southeast Asian production areas is affected by heavy rainfall, but there is an expectation of increased supply after the rainy season, which may lead to raw material pressure. On the demand side, tire enterprise开工 rates are in a recovery state, but tire factory inventories are accumulating again, especially for semi - steel tires. Due to the low warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber, the rubber sector has rebounded, but weak demand expectations and the expectation of increased raw material supply during the peak production period suggest that rubber prices are likely to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and pay attention to the performance around the 14,000 level [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Although there was a negative impact from the planned production of Lianyungang Alkali Industry last week, it will take time to produce products, and recent maintenance has led to a significant decline in production. The market has a strong expectation of maintenance in June, so the downward trend in the futures market has slowed. In the short term, inventory is likely to remain stable. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation after maintenance ends. It is advisable to track the implementation of maintenance in May - June. For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds in the far - month contracts, and for spread trading, consider a 7 - 9 positive spread [4]. - **Glass**: The spot market for glass is performing poorly, and market sentiment is pessimistic. This week, spot prices have weakened further, and the sales rate of manufacturers has been affected by the selling of futures - cash merchants during the futures price decline. Although the demand from downstream deep - processing factories has improved seasonally from April to May, market expectations are poor due to the expected summer rainy season starting in June. The current fundamentals have marginally improved, but expectations and sentiment are neutral to weak. It is expected that glass prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at the 1000 level for the 09 contract [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, Huale SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with declines of 1.16%, 1.60%, and 1.24% respectively. The basis for these varieties all increased, with increases ranging from 21.93% to 29.93% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2510 - 2511 contracts showed different changes on May 27 compared to May 26, with changes ranging from - 66.67% to 16.67% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April 2025, national industrial silicon production decreased by 4.14 million tons to 30.08 million tons, a decline of 12.10%. Xinjiang's production decreased by 20.55%, while Yunnan and Sichuan's production increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. The national and regional开工 rates also showed corresponding changes. The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while industrial silicon exports increased by 1.64% [1]. Inventory Changes - From the previous period, Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 6.95%, Yunnan's increased by 1.26%, and Sichuan's decreased by 0.44%. Social inventory decreased by 2.84%, warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.44%, and non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 5.67% [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. However, the basis for N - type material and cauliflower material decreased by 25.08% and 5.69% respectively [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The PS2506 futures price increased by 1.16% on May 27 compared to May 26. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, with increases or decreases ranging from - 30.43% to 32.86% [2]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 7.09% to 13.30 GM, and polysilicon production increased by 0.47% to 2.15 million tons. In April, polysilicon production decreased by 0.73%, imports decreased by 69.49%, exports decreased by 37.06%, and net exports increased by 127.44%. Silicon wafer production, imports, exports, and net exports all increased, and silicon wafer demand increased by 14.36% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 4.00% to 26.00 million tons, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.52% to 18.95 GW. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470 [2]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 27, the price of South China state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 0.70%, while the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.35%. The basis for whole - milk rubber increased by 5.00%. The prices of some raw materials such as cup rubber decreased, while others remained unchanged [3]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.63%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 44.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 3.95% on May 27 compared to May 26 [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The weekly开工 rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires decreased slightly. Domestic tire production and tire export volume decreased in April. The import volume of natural rubber in March and April also decreased. The production cost and profit of Thai dry rubber showed different changes [3]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.73%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 38.02%. The入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in Qingdao showed various changes [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 28, the spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract price decreased by 0.27%, and the 2509 contract price increased by 1.18%. The 05 basis increased by 6.00% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot price of soda ash in East China decreased by 3.45%, while prices in other regions remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 1.55%, and the 2509 contract price decreased by 1.79%. The 05 basis increased by 9.43% [4]. Supply - The soda ash开工 rate decreased by 2.04%, and the weekly production decreased by 2.05%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 2.33% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.46%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.06%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 0.82%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [4]. Real Estate Data (Monthly) - In April, the year - on - year change in new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [4].

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-26 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14400 | -135 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12645 | 20 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -760 | 25 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 60 | -35 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1755 | -155 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 174632 | 9924 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 60115 | -910 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -32944 | 1773 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -3977 | 2125 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 199370 | -170 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 32055 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - For the corn market, the USDA's forecast of increased US corn ending stocks in 2025/26 restricts market prices, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations raises concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, feed enterprises in the Northeast have low purchasing enthusiasm, trade grain moves slowly, and processing enterprises' operating rates are down. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, new wheat is about to be harvested, leading to more market circulation and price cuts by processing enterprises, and the proportion of wheat in feed is increasing [2]. - For the corn starch market, affected by high raw material costs, large industry losses, and competition from substitutes, the industry's operating rate continues to decline. Although supply pressure has weakened and spot prices are relatively firm, downstream demand is limited, and industry inventory remains high. Recently, the starch futures price has been weak, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2318 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2653 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1280330 lots, down 28590 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 239245 lots, down 829 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 98224 lots, up 7111 lots; for corn starch, it is - 4495 lots, down 1227 lots. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 211311 lots, down 524 lots; for corn starch, they are 25340 lots, down 300 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 379 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 459 cents/bushel, down 3.75 cents. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1637956 contracts, up 48527 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 11552 contracts, down 29658 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2376.27 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan; the factory - gate price of corn starch in Changchun is 2690 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2057.71 yuan/ton, down 9.05 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn main contract is 58.27 yuan/ton, up 9.19 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 37 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 377.63 million tons, in Brazil is 126 million tons, in Argentina is 50 million tons, in China is 294.92 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.8 million tons, with no change in all countries' production forecasts [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 33.55 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.3 million hectares, in Argentina is 6.4 million hectares, and in China is 44.74 million hectares, with no change in all countries' sown area forecasts [2]. - The corn inventory at southern ports is 130.4 million tons, down 13.5 million tons; at northern ports, it is 486 million tons, down 9 million tons. The deep - processing corn inventory is 453.5 million tons, up 0.7 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 8 million tons, unchanged; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20350 tons, down 930 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons. The sample feed corn inventory days are 35.2 days, unchanged. The deep - processing corn consumption is 119.83 million tons, up 1.28 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 43.61%, up 1.46 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.88%, down 1.29 percentage points. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 154 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei, it is - 85 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; in Jilin, it is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.66%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.21%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.04%, down 0.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.03%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of May 21, the 2024/25 Argentina corn harvest progress is 38.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from a week ago, and the national average yield is 8.07 tons/hectare, down from 8.12 tons/hectare a week ago [2]. - The consulting agency SovEcon predicts that Russia's grain output in 2025 will reach 127.6 million tons, slightly higher than 125.9 million tons in 2024. The USDA's forecast of 1.8 billion bushels of US corn ending stocks in 2025/26 restricts market prices, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations raises concerns about long - term import pressure [2]. Key Points to Watch - The mysteel corn weekly consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory data on Thursday and Friday. As of May 21, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 142.9 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.56%, a monthly increase of 3.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.40% [3].