Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has remained nearly unchanged over the past six weeks, with most regions showing "flat or slight declines" [1] - Rising tariffs are impacting supply chains and prices, leading to higher costs for businesses and forcing them to raise prices, while consumers are cutting back on spending due to wage growth lagging behind inflation [1][2] - Summer inflation has increased, but remains at a "moderate or modest" level; however, slow wage growth is reducing household purchasing power, making consumers more cautious [2] Labor Market and Federal Reserve Actions - Despite signs of weakness, the labor market remains stable; however, officials from the Federal Reserve believe that the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time shock expected to dissipate by next year, while labor market deterioration poses a greater economic risk [2] - The weak economic conditions reflected in the Beige Book have heightened market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with investors anticipating the first rate cut of the year during the policy meeting on September 16-17 [2] - A poor performance in the August non-farm payroll report would almost "lock in" the decision for a rate cut in September, with analysts suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut as a moderate measure to balance inflation and employment [2] Corporate Developments - China Fortune Land Development Co., Ltd. announced that as of September 3, 2025, 78.43% of the holders of its existing notes have joined the restructuring support agreement, with the early consent fee deadline extended to September 23, 2025 [3] - Shanghai Fosun High Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. plans to issue its first Magnolia bond as early as this month, with an inquiry range of 6%-6.5% [5] Market Movements - As of September 3, the yield on China's two-year government bonds is 1.39%, while the ten-year yield is 1.80%. In the U.S., the two-year yield has decreased by 5 basis points to 3.61%, and the ten-year yield has decreased by 6 basis points to 4.22% [8] - The top ten gainers and losers in Chinese dollar bonds have been reported, with significant price fluctuations observed [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reduction of internal and external lead inventories supports the price of lead [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Shanghai lead main contract closing price was 16,860 yuan/ton, down 0.03%; LME lead 3M electronic trading closing price was 1,994.5 dollars/ton, down 0.20% [1] - Shanghai lead main contract trading volume was 25,910 lots, a decrease of 4,432 lots; LME lead trading volume was 3,791 lots, a decrease of 1,768 lots [1] - Shanghai lead main contract open interest was 50,042 lots, a decrease of 596 lots; LME lead open interest was 158,193 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots [1] - Shanghai 1 lead premium/discount was -35 yuan/ton, an increase of 15; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -43.09 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.59 [1] - PB00 - PB01 was -55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10; import premium/discount was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Lead ingot spot import profit and loss was -531.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72; Shanghai lead continuous - three import profit and loss was -561.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.74 [1] - Shanghai lead futures inventory was 55,044 tons, a decrease of 830 tons; LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons [1] - Scrap electric vehicle battery price was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME lead cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons, a decrease of 3,325 tons [1] - Recycled refined lead price was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25; recycled lead comprehensive profit and loss was -331 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 [1] 2. News - Weak US JOLTS job vacancy data strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller said that interest rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [1] - Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to threaten with tariffs and oppose the UN shipping emission agreement [1] 3. Lead Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral stance [1]

Group 1 - President Trump announced that he will soon impose tariffs on semiconductor imports, excluding products from companies like Apple that have committed to increasing investments in the U.S. [1][3] - During a dinner with tech executives, Trump mentioned that companies that do not invest in the U.S. will face tariffs, while those that establish production lines in the U.S. will be exempt from these tariffs [3][4] - Apple has pledged to invest $600 billion in domestic manufacturing, which aligns with Trump's tariff strategy [3] Group 2 - Trump previously indicated that the tariff rates could be significantly higher than 100%, potentially reaching 200% or 300% [4]

Core Points - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as crucial for the economy, with Stephen Miran asserting that he was not pressured to support interest rate cuts during his confirmation hearing [1][2][3] - Miran plans to temporarily step down from his role as a senior economic advisor to Trump if confirmed as a Fed governor, which raises concerns about the potential conflict of interest and the independence of the Fed [4][5][6] - Miran has faced scrutiny regarding his past proposals that could increase presidential power over the Fed, including the ability to dismiss Fed officials, which he claims is part of a broader system of checks and balances [6][10] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Independence - Miran stated that the independence of the Federal Reserve is "vital" for the U.S. economy and that he agrees with the need for the Fed to remain independent from political influence [2][3] - He acknowledged that while Trump selected him based on his policy views, he would act independently if confirmed [2][6] Confirmation Hearing Dynamics - Concerns were raised by Senate Banking Committee members about Miran's ability to maintain the Fed's independence, especially given his close ties to the Trump administration [1][5] - Miran's temporary leave from his White House role during his tenure as a Fed governor was criticized as potentially undermining the Fed's independence [5][6] Regulatory and Economic Policy Views - Miran expressed the need for a comprehensive review of regulatory costs and benefits, particularly regarding capital requirements under Basel III [3] - He criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence and stated he would resist any actions that exceed the Fed's core responsibilities [3][6] Employment Data and Economic Impact - Miran commented on the quality of employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), suggesting it has deteriorated over time, although he did not confirm any allegations of data manipulation [7][8] - He maintained that tariffs have not significantly impacted inflation, despite concerns raised by other senators [9] Interest Rate Policy and Market Reactions - Miran predicted that the bond market would not resist potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, indicating a belief in the market's adaptability to changes in monetary policy [10]

Trade Policy & Investment - US may impose tariffs on chip companies not investing in the US [1] - Companies investing or planning to build factories in the US may be exempt from tariffs [1] - Tariffs will be "considerable, but not too high" [1] - Apple committed to invest $600 billion in the US over four years [1] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix have already announced plans to build factories in the US [1]

Group 1 - The impact of tariffs on price increases varies by industry [1] - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee emphasizes that the relationship between tariffs and inflation is not uniform across sectors [1] - Different industries may experience different levels of price sensitivity to tariff changes [1]

Group 1 - The latest Federal Reserve "Beige Book" indicates that both employment and consumer spending in the U.S. are under pressure due to tariffs, leading to a slowdown in hiring and investment by businesses, while consumers are tightening their spending in response to rising prices [1][2] - The report highlights that all Federal Reserve districts have experienced price increases related to tariffs, which have raised production costs for businesses and increased the cost of living for consumers [1][2] - Many businesses across various Federal Reserve districts express concerns about the economic outlook, with worries about trade policy changes, high interest rates, and stricter immigration policies [1] Group 2 - Consumers are facing a dual challenge of rising prices and reduced employment, with wage growth not keeping pace with inflation, particularly as companies adjust labor costs in response to tariffs [2] - The "Beige Book" reveals increasing economic uncertainty, with the term "uncertainty" mentioned 80 times, reflecting a more cautious decision-making environment for both businesses and consumers [2]

Group 1 - The White House announced the implementation of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods exported to the U.S. [2][4] - Specific sectors such as automotive, aerospace, generic drugs, and natural resources will have differentiated tariff treatments under the new framework [2][4]. - The new tariff framework aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and promote a more balanced overall trade situation [4]. Group 2 - Japan is committed to increasing its procurement of U.S. agricultural products, including a 75% increase in U.S. rice purchases and an annual total of $8 billion in various U.S. agricultural goods [4]. - The Japanese government will facilitate the sale of U.S.-made passenger cars in Japan without additional testing, as long as they meet U.S. safety certification standards [4]. - Japan plans to purchase U.S.-manufactured commercial aircraft and defense equipment, providing significant market access for U.S. manufacturers [4]. Group 3 - The Trump administration is seeking a swift Supreme Court ruling to overturn a previous court decision that deemed the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries illegal [5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that delaying the ruling could lead to significant financial chaos, with tariffs collected potentially reaching $750 billion to $1 trillion by mid-2026 [5]. - As of August 24, U.S. companies have paid over $210 billion in tariffs that have been ruled illegal, which may require refunds if the appellate court's decision is upheld [5]. Group 4 - The U.S. trade deficit widened significantly in July, reaching $78.3 billion, driven by increased imports ahead of the anticipated new tariffs [6]. - Analysts suggest that businesses imported more goods and materials in anticipation of the new tariffs, contributing to the highest trade deficit in four months [6]. - The expectation of increased tariffs also led to a surge in gold shipments, further boosting overall U.S. imports [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a new U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese goods entering the U.S. market, aimed at reducing the trade deficit and balancing trade relations between the two countries [4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement - The U.S. will impose a 15% baseline tariff on almost all Japanese imports [4]. - Specific sectors such as automobiles, aerospace products, generics, and natural resources that cannot be sourced domestically will have differentiated tariff treatments [4]. - The new tariff framework is expected to help reduce the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and promote a more balanced overall trade situation [6]. Group 2: Market Access for U.S. Products in Japan - Japan will provide significant market access opportunities for U.S. manufacturers in key sectors including aerospace, agriculture, food, energy, and automobiles [7]. - Japan aims to increase its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% under the "minimum market access" rice plan, with total annual purchases of U.S. agricultural products reaching $8 billion [7]. - U.S.-made passenger cars that meet U.S. safety standards will be allowed to sell in Japan without additional testing [7]. Group 3: Legal and Economic Context - The Trump administration is appealing a court ruling that deemed the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries illegal, arguing it undermines the president's ability to conduct foreign policy and protect national security [8]. - As of August 24, U.S. companies have paid over $210 billion in tariffs that may be deemed illegal, with potential refunds causing significant disruption if the ruling is upheld [8]. - The U.S. trade deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July, significantly higher than the adjusted $59.1 billion in June, driven by increased imports ahead of the new tariffs [10].

特朗普：将对不来美国的芯片公司征收关税。 ...