Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, reflecting a balance of domestic and international factors, aimed at stabilizing employment and enhancing people's livelihoods [2] - The deficit ratio is proposed to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [3][4] - The issuance of special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, with a focus on supporting consumption and infrastructure, reflecting a strong intent to boost economic activity [5][6] Debt and Financing - Local government special bonds are proposed at 4.4 trillion yuan, aimed at investment construction and addressing local government debts, contributing to a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan [7] - The increase in special bonds and their diversified use is expected to enhance project efficiency and support the real estate market [7][12] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to ensure ample liquidity [8] - The focus will be on aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth and price stability, with expectations for policy adjustments post the National People's Congress [8] Consumption and Economic Structure - Special actions to boost consumption are planned, including 300 billion yuan for consumption upgrades, and measures to enhance service sector offerings [9][10] - The government emphasizes the need for structural reforms to address consumption patterns and improve the overall consumption environment [10] Industrial Development - The report highlights the importance of developing new productive forces through technological and industrial innovation, with a focus on emerging industries such as AI and quantum technology [11] - Traditional industries will also be encouraged to upgrade and innovate, ensuring a balanced approach to industrial development [11] Real Estate Market - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market with increased efforts, including the use of special bonds for land acquisition and stock housing purchases [12] - There is a clear intent to optimize policies to support the real estate sector, indicating potential easing of restrictions in major cities [12] Education and Healthcare - A high-quality education system is prioritized, with plans for expanding educational resources and enhancing vocational training [13] - The healthcare system will undergo reforms to improve service quality and accessibility, with a focus on integrating medical services and insurance [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with a target GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2025, reflecting the need for employment stability, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Summary - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan [1][3]. - The issuance of special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting state-owned commercial banks and local government projects [1][4]. - The total new government debt for the year is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity [1][5]. Monetary Policy Summary - A moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, with measures such as timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample liquidity [2][4]. - The focus will be on optimizing structural monetary policy tools to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, as well as supporting technological innovation and green development [2][6]. Special Bonds and Local Government Debt - The increase in local special bonds is expected to enhance their role in stabilizing growth, addressing shortfalls, and promoting recovery in the real estate market [5][6]. - Special bonds will be directed towards municipal construction, new energy, and new infrastructure, with a portion allocated for replacing hidden debts, thereby reducing local debt risks [5][6]. Long-term Special Bonds - The scale of long-term special bonds will be expanded to 1.3 trillion yuan, with a significant portion aimed at boosting consumption and supporting high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of equipment [3][6]. - Issuing special bonds to supplement commercial bank capital is expected to lower risks for banks and enhance their ability to support the real economy through interest rate cuts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the need for macroeconomic regulation and innovation to promote economic recovery, highlighting effective fiscal and monetary policies, support for key sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market and capital markets [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The report advocates for a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing both total and structural monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity and match social financing growth with economic growth and price expectations [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools to support the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets, as well as to enhance support for technology innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises [4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Financial Coordination - The report calls for active expansion of effective investment, aligning government investment tools with national development strategies and public needs, and accelerating the implementation of key projects [6]. - It proposes a central budget investment of 7.35 trillion yuan for the year, with a focus on effective project selection and fund management to prevent inefficient investments [6]. Group 3: Policy Financial Support - The report highlights the need to strengthen policy financial support, accelerate the development of venture capital, and enhance patient capital [8]. Group 4: Financial System Reform - The report outlines plans for zero-based budgeting reforms at the central level and encourages local governments to deepen similar reforms, aiming to innovate in expenditure standards and performance evaluations [10]. - It emphasizes the need to improve the financial standards and systems for technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital finance [11]. Group 5: Capital Injection for State-Owned Banks - The report mentions plans to issue special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support capital replenishment for large state-owned commercial banks [13]. Group 6: Foreign Trade Financial Services - The report stresses the importance of stabilizing foreign trade development, enhancing financial services related to financing, settlement, and foreign exchange, and expanding export credit insurance coverage [15]. Group 7: Risk Prevention in Finance - The report emphasizes the need to effectively prevent and resolve key financial risks, ensuring that systemic risks do not occur, particularly in the real estate sector [17]. - It advocates for a market-oriented approach to address risks in local small and medium financial institutions, including capital replenishment and market exit strategies [18].

会议期间，宣昌能会见了巴西央行行长加利波罗、阿根廷央行行长鲍希利、澳大利亚央行行长布洛克、 英格兰银行副行长布里登以及欧委会经济金融事务总司总司长韦尔维，就双边金融合作等议题交换了意 见。 此前，在2025年1月14日国务院新闻办公室举行"中国经济高质量发展成效"系列新闻发布会上，宣昌能 表示，未来一段时间，外部环境复杂性、严峻性和不确定性可能进一步上升，但中国的经济基础坚实。 按照中央"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"要求，人民银行今年将落实好适度宽松的货币政策。近年来， 稳健的货币政策更加突出强调有力、有效、精准、灵活等要求，对调控区间的把握偏向宽松一些，也会 根据年中经济运行情况持续不断加大逆周期调节力度，2019年底以来还持续降准降息，累积效应使得社 会融资环境处于较为宽松的状态。 中国人民银行副行长宣昌能于2025年2月2 6 - 2 7日出席了在南非开普敦举 行 的 二 十 国 集 团 （ G20 ） 财 长 和 央 行 行 长 会 议 。 在 会 议 期 间 ， 宣 昌 能 表 示，中国经济持续回升向好，中国人民银行在推动落实金融改革、促进跨 境支付发展等方面取得了务实成果。 中国人民银行副行长宣昌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the importance of financial support for the development of private enterprises, aligning with the directives from the central government and the speech by President Xi Jinping, which serves as a guiding principle for promoting the growth of the private economy [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The meeting called for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the effective use of structural monetary policy tools to enhance credit support for private and small enterprises [2]. - Financial institutions are urged to treat all types of ownership enterprises equally and to increase credit allocation to private and small enterprises [2]. - The execution of 25 measures to support the private economy is essential, along with the establishment of a credit enhancement system for small and medium-sized private enterprises [2]. Group 2: Collaborative Efforts - There is a need for enhanced collaboration among various stakeholders to improve the financing environment for private enterprises, addressing issues related to financing difficulties and high costs [3]. - The meeting highlighted the role of industry associations in facilitating connections between private enterprises and financial institutions to improve financing accessibility [3]. Group 3: Innovation and Governance - Private enterprises are encouraged to focus on independent innovation, improve governance structures, and enhance credit management while managing risks effectively [3].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/金融/银行 证券研究报告 行业周报 2025 年 02 月 17 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -3.14% 5.18% 13.49% 21.80% 30.11% 38.43% 2024/1 2024/4 2024/7 2024/10 银行 海通综指 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 | [Table_ReportInfo] 《周报：1 月 LPR 维持不变，长期资金 | | --- | | 入市利好高股息板块》2025.01.27 | | 《周报：12 月社融数据公布，4 家银行全 | 年净利润均正增长》2025.01.20 《周报：央行暂停公开市场国债买入，2 万亿元置换债券发行工作已启动》 2025.01.13 分析师:董栋梁 Tel:(021)23185697 Email:ddl13206@haitong.com 证书:S0850523100001 周报：政府债券有力支撑社融，央行将择 机调整优化政策力度和节奏 [Table_Summary 投资要点：本周央行发布 2024 ...

当我们的交易信号与内心的预期相冲突时，就很难去坚定地执行交易系统。你的预判，或许是由自己的分析体系得出的，也或许是人性弱点推动的，但只 要是内心与出入场信号不一致，在下单执行交易时就会变的犹豫纠结。 ——笔记哥《应对》 上午资金面紧张，尾盘略有转松，DR007加权利率上行至1.8%之上。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 10) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成义宣占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | RO01 | 1.68 | | | 2. 78 | 10 | 66243.61 | 2020. 87 | 86. 60 | | R007 | 1.93 | 5 | | 2. 40 | | 9202. 43 | 1298. 56 | 12. 03 | | R014 | 1.94 | | | 2. ...