Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Energy is in the process of replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a task that will take several years, following significant withdrawals by the Biden administration [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Petroleum Reserve Replenishment - Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized the Biden administration for irresponsibly selling off the SPR, stating that the rapid release has damaged energy infrastructure [1]. - The Department is currently working on replenishing four SPR sites and repairing two others, while seeking additional funding to expedite these efforts [1]. - In March, Wright indicated that the Department was preparing to purchase $20 billion worth of crude oil as the first step in replenishing the national SPR [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the multi-year large-scale crude oil purchasing plan by the U.S. will provide a long-term stable demand source for the market, potentially supporting oil prices to some extent [3]. - As of now, the WTI crude oil price is approximately $61 per barrel, having declined nearly 14% since the beginning of the year [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its global oil demand growth forecast, predicting a 30% drop to 730,000 barrels per day by 2025, and further slowing to 690,000 barrels per day by 2026 [3].

Group 1 - The dynamic changes in the gold-oil ratio reflect market risk appetite, macroeconomic expectations, and geopolitical developments, serving as a leading indicator of the macroeconomy and a warning tool for systemic risks [2][3] - Historically, the gold-oil ratio has remained stable between 10 and 25 since 1970, with significant increases above 25 often preceding major financial or geopolitical events [2][6] - A significant rise in the gold-oil ratio typically indicates heightened market risk aversion and expectations of economic slowdown or recession [6][16] Group 2 - The gold-oil ratio reached historical peaks during various crises, such as 41.4 during the 1973 oil crisis and 30 during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, reflecting the interplay of geopolitical tensions and economic instability [7][10][12] - Recent increases in the gold-oil ratio are attributed to rising market risk aversion, expectations of economic recession, and weakened oil supply-demand dynamics, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policies [16][17] - The U.S. tariff measures have escalated trade tensions, leading to downward revisions in global economic growth forecasts and increased concerns about oil demand [18][21] Group 3 - Financial institutions have adjusted their global oil demand growth forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs predicting a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 400,000 barrels per day for 2026 due to trade tensions [21] - OPEC+ has entered a production increase phase, with plans to exceed market expectations, further exacerbating concerns about oil supply surplus [22][27] - The current oil price is under pressure from three main factors: escalating U.S. tariff policies, pessimistic oil demand outlook, and OPEC+ production increases [27][28]

美国媒体当地时间4月28日报道称，由于全球多国对美国特朗普政府实施的关税政策予以强烈反击，尤 其中国暂停进口美国农产品的一系列措施，美国农业部门已遭受巨大损失。美国农产品运输联盟负责人 更是直言，美国农产品行业的全面危机已经到来。报道称，一家主营木浆和纸板的出口商表示，其仓库 中有6400吨的货物目前因订单取消而被迫滞留，并产生巨额费用。另有9000吨的货物原定于5月中旬到 达中国，鉴于中国对美加征关税采取反制措施，届时该批货物将不得不在保税仓库滞留或转口贸易，相 应成本难以估量。有美国农产品出口商警告称，中国市场难以被取代，目前由于中美两国贸易下降，美 国农产品的价格已经受到影响，一些产品的价格已经下降超过了20%。（央视财经） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **看多品种**: 五大、短纤 [1] - **看空品种**: 铜、PTA、苯乙烯、尿素 [1] - **震荡品种**: 股指、国债、黄金、白银、铝、氧化铝、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、工业硅、多晶硅、螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石、锰硅、硅铁、玻璃、焦炭、棕榈油、豆油、棉花、生猪、燃料油、沪胶、乙二醇、甲醇、PE、PP、PVC、烧碱、菜油 [1] - **观望品种**: 纸浆 [1] - **震荡偏空品种**: 原木 [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 五一期间海外不确定性大，建议部分品种轻仓过节，关注国内外宏观及资源国政策变动 [1] - 不同品种受关税、贸易摩擦、供需格局、成本、政策等因素影响，走势各异，投资策略需根据各品种具体情况制定 [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - 股指期货短期轻仓观望，节前可考虑介入股指期权双头策略；国债受资产荒和弱经济利好，但短期央行提示利率风险压制上涨空间；黄金短期震荡调整，中长期上涨逻辑未变；白银关税不确定性高，商品属性限制银价上方空间 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - 铜下游需求尚可，但贸易摩擦影响下价格反弹后有回调风险；铝价因全球贸易摩擦不确定性震荡运行；氧化铝供需格局好转，下行空间有限但上行缺乏动力；锌关注逢高空机会；镍和不锈钢受关税、印尼资源税政策影响，短期震荡运行，关注成本支撑和政策变动 [1] - 锡价因曼相矿区复产预期，短期上方压力较大；工业硅供过于求，进入低估值区间；多晶硅短期跌幅大，有反弹需求；碳酸锂供给未收缩，库存累库 [1] Black Metals - 螺纹钢、热卷受贸易风波影响，短期风险偏好差；铁矿石受关税政策影响短期承压；锰硅库存高但成本有支撑；硅铁成本松动但产区减产；玻璃需求脉冲式释放；焦煤和焦炭供需相对过剩，关注期现正套和卖出套保机会 [1] Agricultural Products - 棕榈油和豆油资金节前避险情绪强，建议观望；棉花受原油和化纤替代影响，需求或偏弱；原糖因海外担忧价格上行，国内产量大增压制内盘；五大余粮趋紧且产区干旱，盘面预期震荡偏强；豆粕供应预期改善，建议等待低位布局多单 [1] - 纸浆受贸易摩擦影响暂无利好，盘面贴水建议观望；原木到船和库存高位，贸易摩擦利空需求；生猪存栏和出栏体重增加，盘面贴水现货 [1] Energy and Chemicals - 原油影响棉纺需求，PTA因装置检修和市场传闻看空；乙二醇装置检修；短纤工厂减产加工费扩张，看多；苯乙烯受关税影响下游需求转弱，看空；尿素供需宽松，价格向下调整 [1] - 甲醇短期区间震荡，中长期或由强转弱；PE、PP因宏观风险和贸易战震荡偏弱；PVC基本面弱难以趋势上涨；烧碱节前需求一般，盘面震荡偏弱 [1] Others - 集法财线强预期弱现实，旺季合约可轻仓试多，关注6 - 8反套 [1]

机械设备/专用设备 浩洋股份（300833.SZ） 贸易摩擦下短期业绩承压，收购 SGM 品牌矩阵扩张 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 31.83 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 94.58/28.35 | | 总市值(亿元) | 40.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 25.87 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 87.64 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 浩洋股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q2 业绩承压，期待下半年收入 业绩双改善—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.22 风险提示：海外市场需求不及预期、产能爬坡不及预期、地缘政治风险。 财务摘要和估值指标 | 吕明（分析师） | 孟鹏飞（分析师） | 蒋奕峰（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | lvming@kysec.cn ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting set the policy direction after the change in the external environment. In the short - term, the focus is on accelerating the implementation of previously established policies, with sufficient policy reserves for potential additional hedging in the future. High - frequency data shows that foreign trade impact is increasing, and domestic real - estate sales are under pressure. It is expected that the macro data in April will weaken moderately. Near - term policies will focus on the implementation of structural policy tools emphasized in the Politburo meeting. Later, when the real impact of trade frictions on the economy and the direction of tariffs are clearer, domestic policies may be further strengthened, including the possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [8]. - Gold's current adjustment is tactical, and its strategic upward trend is unlikely to end easily. The short - term performance of gold is highly affected by the US tariff negotiation process. Even if gold prices fall due to the US loosening on tariffs, it may indicate that the US economy has been affected by tariffs, and the recession - interest rate cut chain may fuel gold's rebound in the second quarter [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Risk preference is rising. The adjustment is tactical, and the strategic upward trend is difficult to end. The short - term performance is affected by US tariff negotiations. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2506 was 780.04, with a daily decline of 0.91%, and the night - session closing price was 793.68, with a night - session increase of 1.57%. The trend strength is 0 [9][13][17]. - **Silver**: It is stabilizing and rebounding. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2506 was 8168, with a daily decline of 1.35%, and the night - session closing price was 8244.00, with a night - session increase of 0.48%. The trend strength is 0 [13][17]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction supports prices. Yesterday, the closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,580, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trend strength is 0 [13][21]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The沪铝主力合约 closed at 19935, down 95. The trend strength is 0 [13][24]. - **Alumina**: It is still searching for a bottom. The沪氧化铝主力合约 closed at 2862. The trend strength is 0 [13][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound consolidation. The沪锌主力 closed at 22520, down 1.01%. The trend strength is 0 [13][27]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The沪铅主力 closed at 17005, up 0.35%. The trend strength is 0 [13][30]. - **Nickel**: The upward and downward spaces are converging, and the nickel price may oscillate in a narrow range. The沪镍主力 closed at 124,690, down 1,110. The trend strength is 0 [13][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Spot prices are falling to correct the basis, and there is a game between cost and negative feedback on the disk. The不锈钢主力 closed at 12,765, up 85. The trend strength is 0 [13][33]. - **Tin**: It is slightly recovering. The沪锡主力 closed at 262,840, up 1.26%. The trend strength is 0 [13][36][37]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Demand is weak, and the disk is weakly oscillating. The Si2506 closed at 8,800, up 20. The trend strength is - 1 [13][43][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The news is fermenting, and the disk is also weakly oscillating. The PS2506 closed at 37,780, down 610. The trend strength is - 1 [13][44]. 3.4 Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to the purchasing demand under the high basis. The 2507 contract closed at 66,960, down 1,220. The trend strength is 0 [13][47][48]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The futures closed at 710.5, up 1.5. The trend strength is 0 [13][51][52]. - **Rebar**: The expectation of production cuts is rising, and there is a short - term rebound. The RB2510 closed at 3,129, up 19. The trend strength is 1 [13][54][55]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The expectation of production cuts is rising, and there is a short - term rebound. The HC2510 closed at 3,237, up 27. The trend strength is 1 [13][54][55]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is oscillating at a low level. The硅铁2506 closed at 5648, up 8. The trend strength is 0 [13][59]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: It is oscillating at a low level. The锰硅2506 closed at 5746, up 4. The trend strength is 0 [13][59]. - **Coke**: It is affected by production - cut news and is in a wide - range oscillation. The J2509 closed at 1562, down 4. The trend strength is 0 [13][62]. - **Coking Coal**: It is affected by production - cut news and is in a wide - range oscillation. The JM2509 closed at 947, down 9. The trend strength is 0 [13][62]. - **Steam Coal**: The rigid demand has limited impact, and it is weakly oscillating. The动力煤ZC2505 had no trading yesterday. The trend strength is 0 [13][66][67]. 3.6 Building Materials - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The FG509 closed at 1122, down 0.53%. The trend strength is 0 [13][70][71]. 3.7 Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The processing fee is expanding. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. The 28 - day PX valuation was 758 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars. The trend strength is 0 [13][78][80]. - **PTA**: It is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage. Short - term rebound, medium - term pressure. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The trend strength is 0 [13][78][81]. - **MEG**: Go long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the month - spread. The trend strength is 0 [13][76][81]. - **Rubber**: It is oscillating. The trend strength is not provided in the text [13][82].

Group 1 - The recent trade tensions and "reciprocal tariffs" have led to a reassessment of global oil supply and demand expectations, with major institutions like IEA and OPEC lowering their oil demand growth forecasts [1][2] - IEA has significantly revised its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, reducing GDP support for oil demand from 3.1% to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, and expects global oil demand growth to decline from 1.03 million barrels per day to 726,000 barrels per day this year [1][2] - OPEC has also adjusted its oil demand forecast for the first time since December 2024, lowering the expected growth for global daily oil demand in 2025 from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The supply side is influenced by OPEC+'s production decisions, with Saudi Arabia pushing for a tripling of planned production increases, while non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are expected to achieve record production levels this year [2] - EIA has also downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for this year to 900,000 barrels per day, a reduction of about 400,000 barrels per day from its March estimate, citing concerns over the long-term impact of tariff policies on global economic growth [2][3] - Oil prices have seen significant fluctuations, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping to near four-year lows before rebounding, indicating market volatility due to tariff uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics [4][5]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250429 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美债利率持续回落，A 股节前避险情绪浓厚 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续恶化，4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期，创 下 2020 年 5 月来新低，关税引发的"滞涨"预期仍在发酵。美财政部上调二季度举债规模 预期至 5140 亿美元，针对债务上限问题的"X 日"将于近期公布。美国财长：首笔贸易协 议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一。美元指数失守 99 关口，10Y 美债利率 下行至 4.2%、创三周新低，金价、铜价收涨，油价回落。 国内方面，发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；将建立 实施育儿补贴制度，定向增发购车指标。常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。央行：将适时 降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。A 股继续缩量下跌，两市成交额回落至 1.08 万 亿，假期前夕避险情绪浓厚，风格上北证 50、小微盘股跌幅较大， ...

美关税政策反噬农业：订单取消 价格暴跌 美农业陷"全面危机" 金十数据4月29日讯，美国媒体当地时间28日报道称，由于全球多国对美国特朗普政府实施的关税政策 予以强烈反击，尤其中国暂停进口美国农产品的一系列措施，美国农业部门已遭受巨大损失。美国农产 品运输联盟负责人更是直言，美国农产品行业的全面危机已经到来。货运数据公司统计， 截至4月14 日，中美之间船舶运输量急剧下降，周环比下降超过22%，同比下降44%。有美国农产品出口商警告 称，中国市场难以被取代，目前由于中美两国贸易下降，美国农产品的价格已经受到影响，一些产品的 价格已经下降超过了20%。 （央视） ...

Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]