智通财经APP获悉，周四，美国国债价格小幅走高，市场正密切关注晚些时候将公布的美国11月CPI报 告，政策制定者和投资者将仔细分析该报告，以寻找明年货币政策前景的线索。报告发布前，10年期美 国国债收益率下跌2个基点至4.13%。此次报告发布较为特殊，因为受此前美国政府停摆影响，美国劳 工统计局无法收集价格数据，导致其取消了10月份的报告。由于10月份没有可比数据，因此投资者和美 联储官员将不得不参考同比数据来判断通胀走向。 瑞穗银行宏观策略主管Jordan Rochester表示："美国CPI数据对交易的影响会略有不同。我们需要出现重 大意外才能扭转局面。" 在全球金融市场繁忙的一天，相关数据纷纷出炉。英国央行和欧洲央行周四公布12月利率决议。投资者 也在密切关注美国总统特朗普关于下一任美联储主席人选的消息。特朗普周三晚间表示，他将"很快"宣 布人选，接替鲍威尔的人选将是"一位相信低利率的人"。 美联储上周的降息是今年的第三次，但遭到了三方反对——其中包括两位倾向于维持利率不变的地区联 储主席，以及美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰，他力主更大幅度地降息50个基点。此外，还有六位政策制定者 上周提交了利率预测，表明他们 ...

英国央行政策利率 3.75%，预期 3.75%，前值 4%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.12%, S&P 500 futures by 0.40%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.76% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.26%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.22%, France's CAC 40 up 0.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.38% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.09% to $55.86 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.02% to $59.67 per barrel [3][4] Economic Data and Predictions - The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November is highly anticipated, with economists predicting a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, and core CPI at 3.0% [4] - If the CPI reading is at 2.9%, it could provide positive momentum for the stock market heading into 2026, potentially clearing the way for a "Santa Claus rally" [4] - UBS analysts indicate that recent employment data suggests potential weakness in the US labor market, which may justify the Federal Reserve's consideration of "insurance-style" rate cuts next year [6] Company-Specific Developments - Micron Technology reported a significant revenue increase of 57% year-over-year to $13.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, and projected Q2 revenue between $18.3 billion and $19.1 billion [8] - Nvidia board member Harvey Jones sold over $44 million worth of company stock, raising concerns about valuation levels after a 28% increase in stock price this year [9] - Tesla is projected to sell 125,937 electric vehicles in the US from October to December, a decline of over 22% year-over-year, indicating potential challenges in maintaining market share [10] - BP appointed Meg O'Neill as CEO, marking a significant leadership change aimed at refocusing on oil and gas operations after struggles in transitioning to renewable energy [11] - Elliott Management has invested over $1 billion in Lululemon and is recommending a new CEO candidate to address the company's challenges [11]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has once again lowered interest rates, leading to significant changes in the tire market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates is aimed at stimulating economic growth and addressing inflation concerns [1] - This marks a continuation of the Fed's accommodative monetary policy, which has implications for various sectors, including automotive and tire manufacturing [1] Group 2: Tire Market Implications - The reduction in interest rates is expected to lower borrowing costs for consumers, potentially increasing demand for vehicles and, consequently, tires [1] - Tire manufacturers may experience shifts in pricing strategies and production levels in response to changing consumer demand influenced by the Fed's actions [1]

Group 1 - The next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be chosen between two candidates named Kevin, Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, as President Trump seeks someone who can effectively lower borrowing costs [1] - Trump's previous choice of Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has led to regrets, as he aims to select a more controllable candidate who will heed his advice [1] - The selection process has become more complicated with Trump's announcement to delay the final decision, increasing uncertainty around the candidates [2] Group 2 - Hassett faces scrutiny over his close relationship with Trump, raising concerns about the potential negative perception of his independence as Fed Chair [3] - Warsh has gained support from influential figures like Jamie Dimon, but he must also address his own challenges to secure the position [3][4] - The new Fed Chair will likely encounter internal resistance from the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee, which may complicate the implementation of aggressive rate cuts [5] Group 3 - The Fed's decision-making has shown significant divisions, and the new Chair may find it difficult to communicate clear policy directions [5] - The upcoming legal case regarding Trump's ability to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook could have profound implications for the Fed's operational independence [6] - The new Chair will face heightened expectations to remain calm and make decisions beneficial to the economy, rather than simply appeasing the President [7]

| 数据指标 项目类别 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | 21,955.00 | +40.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,553.00 | -5.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -105.00 294,165.00 | -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) +175.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -128.00 170,112.00 | -10.00↓ -10314.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 73,675.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 258,836.00 | -1119.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | 2,905.50 -99.00 | +23.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） +467.00↑ 沪伦比值 | 519,60 ...

今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于66.33一线上方，今日开盘于66.21美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报66.54美元/盎司，上涨0.55%，最高触及66.58美元/盎司，最低下探65.54美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 美国总统特朗普与美联储主席有力候选人发出鸽派信号，一定程度上加强了明年降息可能性，美元随之 受到压力，而白银是以美元计价的商品，美元的颓势提振白银价格。 另外，地缘方面美国的强硬表态引发市场对白银的避险买盘。特朗普总统下令封锁受制裁的进出委内瑞 拉油轮，在美军增强该地区军事部署的背景下，进一步向委内瑞拉施压。据知情人士透露，若普京总统 拒绝与乌克兰达成和平协议，美国正准备对俄罗斯能源行业实施新一轮制裁，以加大对莫斯科的压力。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 【要闻速递】 特朗普在周四早上的全国讲话中表示，下一任美联储主席将是一个"非常"相信降低利率的人。他进一步 指出，他将很快宣布现任美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔的继任者。 美联储理事克里斯托弗.沃勒周三支持进一步降息，以使中央银行的政策回归中性，彭博社报导。然 而，沃勒也警告说，在高通胀的情况下没有必要急于行动 ...

智通财经APP注意到，华尔街正焦急等待周四发布的11月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告，这将是自上个月 创纪录的美国政府停摆结束以来，该时期的首份数据读数。 根据道琼斯调查的经济学家预测，这份追踪民众为一系列商品和服务支付的平均价格变化的报告，预计 将显示12个月通胀率为3.1%。在剔除食品和能源后，核心CPI的年度增长率预计为3.0%。 美国劳工统计局(BLS)表示，此次发布"将不包括由于10月数据缺失而导致的2025年11月环比百分比变 化"。由于政府停摆，该机构在11月下旬(即美联储今年最后一次会议前几周)取消了10月的通胀报告。9 月的CPI数据——即停摆期间唯一发布的经济数据，也是目前最新发布的报告——显示总体CPI和核心 CPI的年度读数均为3.0%。 盈透证券高级经济学家何塞·托雷斯在接受采访时表示："'2字头'和'3字头'之间的心理差异将是至关重 要的。" 虽然共识预期显示该月年度通胀率将触及3%的门槛，但这位高级经济学家预计总体和核心读数将低于 预期，均为2.9%。不过他认为，总体通胀率可能的范围在2.9%到3.1%之间。 如果报告显示读数为2.9%，这可能会为股市进入2026年提供一些积极动力 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK inflation rate has dropped to its lowest level in eight months, leading traders to believe that the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates soon [1][6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate for November fell to 3.2%, down from 3.6% in October and below the expected 3.5% [1][6] - The decline in inflation is attributed mainly to a decrease in food prices, which typically rise at this time of year, and a slight easing in the service sector inflation rate from 4.5% in October to 4.4% [1][6] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that there is still room for rate cuts, suggesting that the neutral interest rate may be 50 to 100 basis points away [1][7] - Waller emphasized that the Fed can gradually lower rates to neutral levels without rushing, as inflation is expected to moderate [1][7] - The article highlights the importance of the upcoming interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank [2][7]

随着担忧重心从通胀转向英国陷入困境的经济和就业市场，英国央行极有可能在周四送出一份"圣诞大 礼"。 交易员和经济学家预计，英国央行将把基准利率下调25个基点至3.75%，为近三年来的最低水平。决议 将于北京时间周四晚8点公布。 这将是英国央行货币政策委员（MPC）自8月以来首次放松政策。此前外界普遍预期行长贝利将再次投 下决定性的一票，但周三英国通胀数据的急剧下降，增加了MPC四名鹰派成员中有人倒戈的可能性。 英国价格压力消退的证据为降息扫清了障碍，而上个月的预算案也旨在短期内降低通胀。即便如此，英 国央行正逐渐接近其降息周期的尾声，如果该央行在周四如期降息，市场目前仅完全定价了未来再进行 一次降息。 投票分歧 在11月，贝利站在了鹰派阵营一边，该阵营包括副行长伦巴德利和首席经济学家皮尔。贝利当时表示， 在政府预算案即将出台之际，他需要看到更多通胀下降的证据，才能支持进一步放松政策。 自那次会议以来，数据指向了一个更加温和的局面。继11月降幅超出预期后，英国通胀已冷却至八个月 来的最低点，私营部门工资增长放缓，经济连续两个月出现萎缩，预计这足以说服贝利与英国央行的四 名鸽派成员保持一致，其中包括另外两位副行长 ...